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Bengals vs. Bills: NFL DFS Lineup Advice (Sunday)

Bengals vs. Bills: NFL DFS Lineup Advice (Sunday)

The Divisional Round is here as the DFS season marches on. This week presents a beautiful four-game slate with high-powered offenses and high total games. As I’ve mentioned previously, if a player isn’t mentioned in this write-up, they aren’t part of my player pool for the week. There are many ways to build lineups this week as we all look for ways to get different.

Good luck in your DFS contests, and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards.

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NFL DFS Lineup Advice: Bengals vs. Bills

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills

Joe Burrow: Burrow is playing at a ridiculously high level. He ranks first in PFF passing grade, seventh in big-time throw rate, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and ninth in fantasy points per dropback (minimum 150 dropbacks). Buffalo is a talented pass defense, ranking fourth in fantasy points per game, fifth in yards per attempt, and seventh in EPA per dropback. Burrow could come in lowly rostered this week, with many shying away from this matchup. I’ll still push my bankroll to the middle with Burrow, who has displayed a sky-high ceiling. He has five games with at least 28 DK points. Burrow has the talent and weapons to put up a beautiful stat line.

Josh Allen: Despite some hills and valleys with his passing in recent weeks, Allen remains ranked third in PFF passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and eighth in yards per attempt (minimum 150 dropbacks). The Bengals are a tough draw, but Allen is like many of the elite quarterbacks on this slate because he is truly matchup-proof. Since Week 14, Cincinnati has ranked eighth in success rate per dropback, tenth in EPA per drop back, and 12th in yards per attempt allowed. Allen’s rushing is his high floor and ceiling combo trump card. He ranks fourth in rushing yards per game and third in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks.

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is a target hog. He has at least ten targets in eight of his last nine games, with at least 97 receiving yards in half. Chase has a 29.4% target share, a 40.6% end zone target share, and a 38.1% air yard share. Chase ranked third in red zone targets and 20th in yards per route run in the regular season. He will run about 75% of his routes against Tre’Davious White (51.3% catch rate, 69.1 passer rating), Dane Jackson (59.7% catch rate, 84.0 passer rating), and Kaiir Elam (71.1% catch rate, 83.1 passer rating). Since Week 14, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Chase could be shadowed by Tre’Davious White this week. White has shadowed twice this season following Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson on 60-80% of their routes, holding each below 52 receiving yards in coverage.

Tyler Boyd: Boyd has the matchup for Burrow to pick on in this game. Since Week 14, the Bills have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Boyd should see a bump this week from the 13.9% target share and 17.8% air yard share he saw in the regular season. Boyd ranked 36th among 87 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Boyd will run about 84% of his routes against Taron Johnson (71.7% catch rate, 107.8 passer rating). Boyd is my favorite value receiver on this slate.

Stefon Diggs: Diggs did Diggs-type things last week with a 24.3% target share and 114 receiving yards. Overall, Diggs has a 27.6% target share, a 37.2% end zone target share, and a 33.3% air yard share. Diggs ranks seventh in open rate, sixth in end zone target rate, and 15th in weighted opportunity. Diggs should spearhead the Bills’ passing attack again this week, running about 66% of his routes against Cam Taylor-Britt (58.5% catch rate, 105.1 passer rating) and Eli Apple (58.4% catch rate, 103.7 passer rating).

Gabriel Davis: Davis equaled Diggs last week with a 24.3% target share as he finished with 113 receiving yards and a touchdown. Davis is second on the team in target share (18.6%) and end zone target share. He also has a 30.3% air yard share and 1.63 yards per route run. Davis ranked 12th in deep targets in the regular season and has nine red zone targets over his last six games. He will run about 89% of his routes against Taylor-Britt and Apple. Davis is my favorite double stack partner with Allen this week.

Dawson Knox: Knox has been on a touchdown heater. Since Week 14, he’s scored in each of his last five full games played with a 17.1% target share. Over this stretch, he’s logged a 75.9% route run rate. Knox has had six red zone targets since Week 15. Knox is another viable double-stacking partner with Allen this week. I’m also not opposed to triple-stacking Allen and betting on 350 passing yards with four passing touchdowns. Allen has three games this season with at least 304 passing yards and four passing touchdowns. Since Week 14, the Bengals have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

CTAs

All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.

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