Some of us are impatient by nature. We try to live in the moment, but we can’t resist the urge to look ahead to whatever might come next, even if the future is blurry.
That’s why, even though the 2022 fantasy football season has been over for a minute, I find myself thinking about 2023 and what fantasy drafts might look like next summer.
You will disagree with the ordering of some players. You will scoff. You will guffaw. (It’s the guffaws that hurt most.) You might even get angry. Please bear in mind that this is a highly subjective exercise — as is any fantasy draft for that matter. We all differ in our appraisal of players and player value.
And of course, since this is a very early 2023 mock draft, some of the players listed here will gain or lose value based on how Week 18 and the postseason play out.
Before we begin, please note that an asterisk denotes a player who will become a free agent in the offseason. Two asterisks denote an incoming rookie. The scoring system for this mock draft is half-point PPR.
Oh, and please DO NOT pay attention to how the so-called “teams” in this mock draft are balanced at various positions. There are no teams in this mock. This is just an approximation of where players will land in fantasy drafts.
Here we go …
ROUND 1
Yes, he laid an egg in Championship Week, but Jefferson has been a monster all year. Heck, he’s been a monster since entering the league in 2020, with at least 1,400 receiving yards in each of his first three NFL seasons. Some fantasy managers can’t fathom drafting a non-RB at the top of the first round, so Jefferson will not be a unanimous 1.01, but he’s certainly worthy of the top spot.
Jonathan Taylor was the consensus 1.01 last summer, and people who preferred McCaffrey were accused of getting too cute. I suspect that many of the people who cute-shamed people for preferring CMC to Taylor last summer will think McCaffrey should be the 1.01 in 2023 drafts, and that anyone who prefers Justin Jefferson is getting too cute. McCaffrey has averaged 104.2 yards from scrimmage since joining the 49ers, with eight touchdowns in four games. CMC’s production might never again reach the heights of his peak Carolina years, but McCaffrey’s massive workloads with the Panthers also jeopardized his health. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan has found a nice balance.
Well, he’s not indestructible after all. Taylor didn’t miss a game in three college seasons at Wisconsin, and his only absence in his first two seasons with the Colts came after a positive COVID-19 test in 2020. But injuries limited JT to 11 games this season, and in Week 15 he only played two snaps before leaving with an ankle injury. Give Taylor a mulligan on 2022; he’s still a special player. Running backs this big, fast and talented are a rare breed.
Ekeler has scored 39 touchdowns over the last two years — an average of 1.22 per game — and he just hit 100 receptions for the first time in his career. The Chargers have been judicious with Ekeler’s usage, so hopefully this pint-sized powder keg can continue to pile up touchdowns as he enters his late 20s.
His 2020 season was wiped out by a torn ACL, and his 2021 season was a frustrating mixture of injuries and ineffectiveness, but Barkley’s 2022 season has been reassuring to everyone he dazzled during his first two years with the Giants. Barkley is due to become a free agent, but it seems unlikely the Giants will let him leave.
His sophomore season hasn’t been as magical (or as injury-free) as his rookie campaign, but Chase is averaging 16.4 half-PPR fantasy points per game, fourth-best among WRs. He’s tethered to terrific young QB Joe Burrow, and the presence of WR Tee Higgins keeps opposing defenses from throwing the kitchen sink at Chase.
From Week 2 to Week 6, Hall was RB4 in fantasy scoring. In Week 7, he tore his ACL after four carries for 72 yards and a touchdowns. Hall came into the league with a magnificent resume and immediately produced as both a runner and receiver. With ample recovery time before the start of the 2023 season, Hall should be ready to pick up where he left off.
Some people faded Hill this year because he would no longer be catching passes from Patrick Mahomes. Hill quickly adapted to his new ecosystem and delivered his best season yet, establishing new career highs in catches and receiving yardage.
After leading the league in receptions, receiving yardage and TD catches in 2021, Kupp was enjoying another excellent season before a high-ankle sprain in Week 10 ended his season. Over the least two years he’s averaged 11.1 targets, 8.5 catches, 106.1 receiving yards and 0.85 touchdowns per game.
Yes, he’ll turn 34 next season, but Kelce has been indestructible and provides a massive advantage at fantasy football’s most maddening position. Kelce has been the leading fantasy scorer at the position in five of the last seven seasons — and in the two seasons that he didn’t finish first, he was runner-up.
Since Week 10, Lamb has been WR2 in fantasy scoring (17.3 FPPG), averaging 7.5 catches, 93.9 receiving yards and 9.9 yards per route run over that stretch. The 23-year-old Lamb has achieved superstar status.
The actuaries will furrow their brows and talk about how a high-mileage running back entering his age-29 season is an imprudent risk in the first round. Henry seems to be aging gracefully, however, and in 2022 he reached new heights as a pass catcher. Henry has 32 receptions for 379 yards — career highs in both categories.
ROUND 2
The Raiders declined to pick up Jacobs’ fifth-year option before the start of the season, and he responded with an epic fourth-year breakout. Jacobs is leading the NFL with 1,608 rushing yards and has amassed 2,003 yards from scrimmage. Workhorse duty seems to suit him, and whether it’s in Las Vegas or somewhere else, Jacobs is destined to be a bell cow again in 2023.
The only rookie to appear in this mock, Robinson has produced elite numbers at the University of Texas for the last two years. When he runs the 40 and goes through all the other athletic testing at the NFL Scouting Combine, the results will bolster the enthusiasm for him. Crank up the hype machine.
Diggs was WR2 in fantasy scoring over the first 13 weeks of the season. He’s endured a three-week mini-slump, but there are no serious concerns about his trajectory. For the last three years, Diggs has been one of the most consistent performers in the game.
Consider this a placeholder spot for Adams, because his ADP will depend on how the Raiders address the quarterback position now that it appears the Derek Carr era is over. Even if the fantasy community frowns upon the Raiders’ QB situation, Adams will have no shortage of admirers. As noted by @NFLResearch, Adams has 15 career games with 100+ receiving yards and multiple TD catches. The only players from the Super Bowl era with more are Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens.
He hasn’t become the pass catcher some of us thought he’d be, but Etienne is an exciting runner who just hit the 1,000-yard mark. With Trevor Lawrence at quarterback and Etienne as the lead RB, the Jaguars’ offense is on the rise.
He has produced the best numbers of his career in his first season in Philadelphia: 84 catches, 1,401 yards, 11 touchdowns. With his 6-1, 226-pound frame and 4.49 speed, Brown is a walking mismatch. Teammate DeVonta Smith‘s late-season breakout hasn’t cut into Brown’s production at all. Over the Eagles’ last four games, Brown and Smith have combined for 50 catches, 878 yards and seven touchdowns.
With 64 rushing yards in Seattle’s regular-season finale, Walker will hit the 1,000-yard rushing mark as a rookie despite missing the first game of the season with a hernia and then playing behind Rashaad Penny for a month. An early second-round draft pick, Walker has been every bit as good as advertised, and his pass-catching ability might be better than advertised.
For all the fretting about Cook’s health, he’s played at least 13 games in each of the last four years. His finishes in fantasy points per game over that stretch (minimum 10 games): RB3, RB1, RB9 and (so far) RB10. Cook has run for more than 1,000 yards in each of the last four seasons, and he’s averaged 345.5 receiving yards and 11.5 touchdowns a year over that span.
His breakout was delayed in 2021 by Melvin Gordon‘s presence and in 2022 by a torn ACL, but Williams’ stardom feels inevitable.
Rhamondre could be drafted higher or lower than this depending on what the Patriots give him for backfield competition. Damien Harris is about to become a free agent. If the Pats let him walk, Rhamondre could potentially get workhorse usage. A dual run-catch threat, Stevenson was RB8 in fantasy points per game from Week 5 to Week 13.
This talented shape-shifter excelled as a short-area receiver in his rookie season, averaging 9.8 yards per catch on 104 receptions, and has now become an explosive vertical receiver in Year Two, averaging 18.7 yards per catch on 70 receptions. Waddle is currently WR7 in fantasy scoring.
The presence of Ja’Marr Chase might limit Higgins’ ceiling (for now), but the floor is rock-solid. Higgins has put together two straight 1,000-yard seasons.
ROUND 3
The prototype of the modern possession receiver, St. Brown had 90 catches as a rookie and needs just four receptions in Week 17 for a 100-catch season (despite missing two games).
He’s not particularly efficient, but Mixon can handle heavy-duty usage, is a dual run-catch threat and plays in one of the NFL’s better offenses.
Maybe it’s just a coincidence, but Chubb hasn’t scored a touchdown in the four games that QB Deshaun Watson has played for the Browns. Chubb is one of the best pure runners in the game but doesn’t add much value as a pass catcher.
A revelation in the preseason, Pierce carried his exhibition excellence into the regular season and was a workhorse for the Texans before a high-ankle sprain in Week 14 ended his rookie year. This dude runs hard. As well as Pierce acquitted himself as a rookie, it would be shocking if he didn’t open the 2023 season as Houston’s lead back.
Metcalf is such an established presence that it’s hard to believe he just turned 25. He’s had a 1,300-yard season and two seasons with double-digit touchdowns, but it feels as if Metcalf’s best is yet to come.
We’re about to witness a sea change in fantasy football QB strategy. The gap between the top quarterbacks and the middle class is wider than ever, so people are going to start paying up for the elites. It appears that Allen’s two-year reign as the top-scoring QB is about to come to an end, but he’s still enormously valuable. His passing numbers are consistently good, and he adds 700+ rushing yards and 6-9 TD runs a year. He’ll also have a couple of games every year in which numbers are so gaudy that he’ll get you a win by himself.
Hurts leads all quarterbacks with 26.76 fantasy points per game. He’s run for 1,531 yards and 23 touchdowns over the last two years, and he made enormous strides as a passer in 2022. After completing 61.3% of his throws and averaging 7.3 yards per attempt in 2021, Hurts has completed 67.3% of his throws and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt this season.
Yards per carry isn’t a great stat, but it’s wildly impressive that Jones has a career average of 5.1 yards per carry on more than 1,000 rushing attempts. He’s a good pass catcher, too.
He just topped 5,000 passing yards for the second time in his career, and he threw his 40th touchdown pass of the season on Sunday. Mahomes is simply the best passer in the NFL, and while he isn’t as prolific a runner as some of his peers, he contributes some value in that area, too.
Fields has been a revelation in his second NFL season. He’s run for eight touchdowns and more than 1,100 yards, and he’s had his moments as a passer. Fields has an impressive kit of tools. It will be fun to see what he can do if the Bears add more talent at wide receiver.
Harris was overpriced in 2022 drafts. His workload was bound to regress — another 307-carry, 74-catch season was not in the offing. But Harris is RB15 in fantasy scoring this season and will still get plenty of work in 2023 … just not the absurd amount of work he got in his rookie year.
It will be interesting to see where Pollard goes in free agency — if in fact he leaves Dallas. Pollard has been wildly productive in his role as a change-of-pace/third-down back. He’s probably ticketed for the same sort of role wherever he lands, and a drastic increase in touches would probably lead to diminishing returns.
ROUND 4
Wilson’s quickness and footwork off the snap are something to behold. It’s obvious that Wilson is going to be a top NFL receiver for a long time. But until the Jets get their QB situation fixed, Wilson’s ceiling is going to be capped.
“The Slim Reaper” has been stealing souls in his second NFL season, winning with his route-running, his hands and his ability to make yards after the catch. Smith has proven over the last month that he can produce WR1-level numbers while playing with A.J. Brown.
One of the best slot receivers in the game, Godwin got off to a slow start after tearing his ACL late last season and having surgery on Jan. 3, but he enters Week 17 just two receptions away from the first 100-catch season of his career. Godwin has caught at least five passes in every game since Week 2. He could be drafted higher or lower than this depending on what the Buccaneers’ QB situation looks like for 2023.
The rookie has overcome mediocre quarterbacking to make it to the cusp of a 1,000-yard season. (He has 67 catches for 982 yards and three touchdowns.) Destined to be a productive fantasy receiver for years to come, Olave wins with advanced route-running skills and big-time speed.
Jackson’s passing numbers slipped a bit this season, but he’s as lethal a runner as ever. Perhaps the passing efficiency will rebound if the Ravens give Jackson more to work with at wide receiver.
Evans endured a career-long 10-game TD drought this year before exploding for 207 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17. Evans has produced nine 1,000-yard seasons, and yet he won’t turn 30 until August 2023. His ADP will depend on the Buccaneers’ QB situation, which might be in flux if 45-year-old Tom Brady finally calls it quits.
Here’s an interesting case. Kamara is scheduled to go to trial on March 1 for battery charges stemming from an incident that occurred in Las Vegas on Pro Bowl Weekend in early 2022. There could be a suspension coming. The Saints’ coaching situation is also a wild card. Could Sean Payton return after a yearlong hiatus? Perhaps a Payton return could reinvigorate Kamara’s receiving numbers (though Kamara’s receiving numbers first slipped in 2021 with Payton at the helm). At 27, Kamara isn’t old, but he may be at a career crossroads.
Deebo’s uniquely impressive 2021 season (77-1,405-6 receiving, 59-365-8 rushing) probably wasn’t repeatable, but the 2022 drop-off was steeper than Deebo investors had hoped (54-612-2 receiving, 41-228-3 rushing in 12 games). Still, there are few players in the NFL more dangerous with the ball in their hands.
Coop is perennially underrated. If Deshaun Watson can get back to being the Watson of old, Cooper could produce career-best numbers in his age-29 season.
Patrick Mahomes‘ name might be the only one ahead of Burrow’s on the list of the best pure passers in the game. Burrow gets to throw to the marvelous WR duo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the young quarterback adds some value with his running.
Swift gets nicked up a lot, and his inconsistent usage has been frustrating, but his pass-catching ability and big-play potential are sweet fragrances that bring fantasy managers running.
From Week 1 to Week 6, Andrews averaged 15.9 fantasy points per game. Since Week 7, he’s averaged 5.5 FPPG. Blame some of it on the quarterbacking. Blame some of it on OC Greg Roman. But let’s not forget the good stuff from early in the season. T.J. Hockenson might go in the first five rounds of some drafts — maybe a lot of drafts — but Andrews is the only TE other than Kelce worth drafting in the first five rounds.
ROUND 5
This season showed that we can’t simply pencil in Moore for 1,100 yards. Still, his 2022 season hasn’t been a total disaster, and we know the problems were all QB-related. Moore is a terrific receiver, and he’s still only 25. The Panthers will eventually get the QB thing squared away, and then look out.
Dobbins has played only eight games after slowly working his way back from a devastating knee injury. There have been flashes of big-time talent this year, just as there were in 2021. Expect enthusiasm for Dobbins at next summer’s drafts.
To know what it would be like to have the same player occupy two WR spots in your lineup, draft McLaurin and D.J. Moore. They are production doppelgangers.
He’s going to be 31 next year, and we don’t know whether Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will be ready for the start of the 2023 season after tearing his ACL in December, but Hopkins balled out in a bunch of games this year after coming back from a PED suspension.
The Jaguars’ offense is ascending, and Kirk is capable of producing something close to WR1 value in stretches.
He doesn’t score a lot of touchdowns or make a lot of big plays, and he’s creeping up on 31, but man, Keenan Allen just piles on the receptions. Since coming back from a hamstring injury in Week 11, he’s averaged 7.8 catches and 85.5 yards a game.
It’s easy to see how good the rookie is. His massive target shares over the last four weeks are encouraging. But unless the Falcons do something drastic with their quarterback position, it’s hard to see London going earlier than the fifth round.
It will be fun to see where Watson goes in 2023 drafts. His landing vicinity might vary wildly from draft to draft. The raw tools and the four-game, eight-TD spree will get people excited about him, but some might be wary of the small-school pedigree and fantasy value that’s been so heavily TD-based.
What a roller-coaster ride this guy had in 2022. With 247 yards from scrimmage over his last two games, Akers is going out on a high that investors will remember.
At this point, we have to acknowledge that streakiness will always be part of Williams’ profile. But, wow, the hot streaks are really something. A Mike Williams heater can launch team winning streaks.
Last year, a lot of people thought Joe Burrow was Justin Herbert Lite. In reality, Justin Herbert is Joe Burrow Lite.
Can the Cardinals keep working Conner this hard? He’s had stretches of workhorse usage in each of the past two seasons. It’s a valuable role, but it’s also hazardous to one’s health. The runners-up for this final draft spot, in no particular order: Miles Sanders, Tyler Allgeier, Michael Pittman and Isaiah Pacheco.
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