The 2022 fantasy football season is officially in the books; thus, we can start our prep for 2023! Our focus today will be on wide receivers, using their “air yards differential” from this past season to identify some players with a good chance to break out or rebound next season. For those unfamiliar with air yards, the stat measures the distance the ball travels through the air from the line of scrimmage on a passing play, regardless of whether the ball is caught. Players who accumulate a high number of air yards are seeing a lot of deep shots down the field, a lot of targets, or both.
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12 Bounce-Back Wide Receiver Candidates (2023 Fantasy Football)
Imagine the year Davante Adams could have had with a slightly higher catch rate! His target share was off the charts, and his stunning differential may explain why the Raiders are likely moving on from Derek Carr.
Amari Cooper will get a full season with Deshaun Watson next year, though he was just as good with Jacoby Brissett, and it is hard to imagine his 26.7% team target share will be any higher. Hill, Brown, and Lamb are in stable situations and should once again be high-end fantasy wideouts in 2023.
It didn’t feel like Mike Evans was the sixteenth-best fantasy wide receiver last season because 23.4% of his points and half his TDs came in Week 17. If Tom Brady returns to the Bucs next season, Evans should rebound with a more consistent year.
Diontae Johnson played most of the season with a rookie QB but again had a high target share. He won’t duplicate his zero TDs next season and could be a draft-day bargain due to his WR39 ranking and the focus that fantasy managers will give George Pickens.
DJ Moore, Chris Olave, and Mack Hollins will likely have new QBs next season, which will factor into their 2023 value. Moore has finished consistently around WR20 the past three seasons despite a revolving QB situation in Carolina. He has the talent to break into the top 10, but we’ll have to see who will be under center for the Panthers next year. Olave had a tremendous rookie season despite missing two games and catching passes from Andy Dalton most of the year. The sky is the limit for this kid. Hollins brings less certainty as he broke out this year and benefitted from injuries to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. If the Raiders’ receiver corps looks similar next year, he’ll have a role, but it may not be as substantial.
Despite missing five games, Marquise Brown made the top 15, which shows how often teams look to take advantage of his speed. However, his best weeks came early in the season when DeAndre Hopkins was serving his six-game suspension, and Kyler Murray may not be back to start the season. Even so, Brown could be a draft-day value, and his low 1.9% drop rate is impressive.
DK Metcalf finished as WR17 this year, but don’t let that fool you. His numbers were as strong as ever outside his six TDs, which should regress to the norm in 2023.
Poor Terry McLaurin. Can we please get this guy a quarterback? He has top-10 talent but needs stability to get there. Hopefully, Washington will find someone next year who will last more than a season.
Allen Lazard had his best fantasy year in 2022, but his production ebbed in the second half once Christian Watson emerged. Watson is an explosive talent who figures to be popular in drafts next summer, but his 8.5% drop rate could frustrate Aaron Rodgers if it doesn’t improve, assuming Rodgers is back next year. This could lead to steady targets for the more sure-handed Lazard, though his ceiling doesn’t figure to be high.
Marvin Jones was the most surprising name on this list, as the veteran was a fantasy non-factor in 2022. A rebound is possible, but don’t count on it if he’s still with Jacksonville, as he’d be deep on the depth chart with Calvin Ridley joining Zay Jones and Christian Kirk as the primary options. If Jones lands in a good situation, he could be worth a flier, but his 7.5% drop rate doesn’t inspire confidence.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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