If you’re reading this, congrats! I assume you’ve reached your league’s championship/at least something to play for this weekend. For those unfamiliar, this weekly article is a depiction of our models that leverage advanced data to hone in on player matchups AND defensive tendencies to predict what WRs are more or less likely to “boom” in a given week.
The models take into account everything from height, speed advanced grading, and yards per route run and compare that to the (weighted, expected) corresponding defensive player’s respective data. We mesh that with some defensive tendencies we expect to see, along with how that WR has performed given those splits, and find players to start/sit for the given week.
Let’s jump right in.
Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice 
Week 16 Results
At 3-2 on the week (3-0 if you ignore Dolphins WRs), we’re claiming victory in the form of magnitude. Despite the marginal victory, we netted you three points to the good per selection. I’ll take that any week!
| Name | FP Selection | Projected | Actual | Net |
| Richie James Jr. | START | 9.4 | 17.0 | +7.6 |
| Tee Higgins | START | 13.7 | 26.8 | +13.1 |
| Tyreek Hill | START | 23.8 | 14.3 | -9.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | SIT | 16.3 | 25.3 | +9.0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | SIT | 15.0 | 1.4 | -13.6 |
Season Scored Card
Season Record: 55-35
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Week 17 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard
| Raw Numbers | Weekly Rank | |||||||||
| Snaps | Wt.ed Net pprr | 40 Adv. | HT Adv. | nPFFwted Total | Wt.ed Net pprr | 40 Adv. | HT Adv. | nPFFwted Total | Avg. Rk. | |
| Tee Higgins | 40.3 | 14.1 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 7.8 | 21 | 27 | 3 | 11 | 16 |
| Christian Watson | 42.4 | 16.5 | 0.06 | 6.08 | 0.7 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 55 | 17 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 41.3 | 15.7 | 0.04 | 2.50 | 6.4 | 12 | 13 | 33 | 18 | 19 |
| D.J. Chark Jr. | 39.8 | 11.5 | 0.06 | 4.67 | 5.4 | 42 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 19 |
| Drake London | 45.3 | 15.2 | 0.00 | 3.51 | 6.4 | 15 | 27 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 39.1 | 15.9 | 0.00 | 1.86 | 13.6 | 9 | 27 | 44 | 3 | 21 |
| Tyreek Hill | 39.2 | 18.3 | 0.00 | 1.05 | 10.9 | 1 | 27 | 53 | 4 | 21 |
| DeSean Jackson | 57.0 | 17.8 | 0.25 | -0.85 | 6.5 | 2 | 1 | 72 | 17 | 23 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 39.8 | 12.0 | 0.12 | 4.23 | 1.9 | 39 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 24 |
| Justin Jefferson | 39.1 | 15.8 | 0.03 | 1.86 | 4.7 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 27 | 24 |
| DeVante Parker | 39.5 | 10.7 | 0.05 | 3.83 | 6.9 | 61 | 8 | 13 | 15 | 24 |
| Davante Adams | 39.4 | 15.8 | 0.00 | 1.55 | 5.7 | 11 | 27 | 49 | 22 | 27 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 39.4 | 15.4 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 7.5 | 13 | 27 | 58 | 13 | 28 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 40.1 | 14.6 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 8.5 | 20 | 27 | 56 | 9 | 28 |
| Amari Cooper | 41.0 | 13.2 | 0.02 | 1.01 | 5.8 | 25 | 18 | 55 | 21 | 30 |
| Chris Moore | 38.4 | 11.3 | 0.00 | 2.09 | 9.6 | 46 | 27 | 38 | 8 | 30 |
| Terry McLaurin | 40.6 | 13.0 | 0.03 | -0.26 | 7.9 | 27 | 16 | 71 | 10 | 31 |
| DeVonta Smith | 41.9 | 13.8 | 0.00 | -0.22 | 10.9 | 23 | 27 | 70 | 5 | 31 |
| Mike Williams | 42.2 | 13.5 | 0.00 | 4.01 | -0.7 | 24 | 27 | 11 | 64 | 32 |
| Josh Reynolds | 39.8 | 11.2 | 0.00 | 3.66 | 2.8 | 47 | 27 | 14 | 40 | 32 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 38.3 | 15.1 | 0.03 | -0.87 | 5.1 | 16 | 15 | 73 | 25 | 32 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 40.3 | 12.9 | 0.00 | 1.82 | 3.9 | 29 | 27 | 46 | 32 | 34 |
| Parris Campbell | 39.2 | 10.0 | 0.12 | 1.25 | 10.4 | 76 | 3 | 51 | 7 | 34 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 41.6 | 15.0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 4.3 | 17 | 27 | 68 | 30 | 36 |
| Chris Godwin | 40.7 | 11.8 | 0.02 | -1.75 | 14.4 | 41 | 19 | 82 | 1 | 36 |
| Garrett Wilson | 40.6 | 12.4 | 0.04 | -2.04 | 6.7 | 32 | 12 | 85 | 16 | 36 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 39.3 | 13.9 | -0.01 | 3.37 | 4.2 | 22 | 73 | 23 | 31 | 37 |
| A.J. Brown | 41.9 | 16.4 | -0.07 | 0.94 | 13.6 | 6 | 84 | 57 | 2 | 37 |
| Treylon Burks | 45.0 | 14.9 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 3.1 | 18 | 27 | 69 | 37 | 38 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 38.3 | 17.3 | -0.12 | 3.03 | 3.7 | 3 | 95 | 24 | 33 | 39 |
| Stefon Diggs | 42.0 | 16.3 | -0.05 | 0.87 | 10.8 | 7 | 80 | 62 | 6 | 39 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 39.2 | 12.0 | -0.07 | 4.06 | 4.4 | 35 | 83 | 10 | 28 | 39 |
| Jauan Jennings | 39.7 | 10.5 | 0.00 | 3.54 | 1.4 | 65 | 27 | 17 | 48 | 39 |
| Julio Jones | 41.0 | 10.7 | 0.05 | 0.90 | 4.3 | 59 | 10 | 59 | 29 | 39 |
| Zay Jones | 40.9 | 10.2 | 0.02 | 3.62 | 0.1 | 72 | 20 | 15 | 59 | 42 |
| Tutu Atwell | 41.7 | 13.2 | 0.00 | -1.18 | 3.5 | 26 | 27 | 80 | 35 | 42 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | 39.3 | 11.5 | -0.07 | 3.54 | 5.3 | 45 | 82 | 18 | 24 | 42 |
| D.J. Moore | 39.1 | 12.0 | 0.05 | -0.92 | 1.3 | 36 | 9 | 76 | 50 | 43 |
| George Pickens | 42.5 | 10.8 | 0.00 | 1.76 | 2.0 | 57 | 24 | 47 | 43 | 43 |
| Nelson Agholor | 39.4 | 10.8 | 0.05 | 1.13 | 0.9 | 56 | 11 | 52 | 53 | 43 |
| Tyler Boyd | 40.3 | 12.0 | -0.08 | 3.00 | 4.9 | 38 | 85 | 25 | 26 | 44 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 40.9 | 10.3 | 0.01 | 2.01 | 1.5 | 69 | 22 | 39 | 46 | 44 |
| Michael Gallup | 41.8 | 12.2 | 0.00 | 1.92 | -2.3 | 34 | 26 | 41 | 76 | 44 |
| Trent Sherfield | 39.8 | 9.6 | 0.00 | 3.99 | -0.1 | 83 | 27 | 12 | 61 | 46 |
| Mike Evans | 41.0 | 11.2 | -0.08 | 2.81 | 5.9 | 48 | 87 | 28 | 20 | 46 |
| Byron Pringle | 56.8 | 16.3 | -0.02 | 0.89 | 2.9 | 8 | 75 | 61 | 39 | 46 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 41.2 | 15.3 | -0.12 | 0.31 | 7.7 | 14 | 92 | 66 | 12 | 46 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 39.3 | 10.1 | 0.00 | 3.39 | -0.3 | 75 | 27 | 22 | 62 | 47 |
| Curtis Samuel | 39.1 | 10.8 | 0.04 | -1.98 | 3.7 | 55 | 14 | 84 | 34 | 47 |
| Marquise Brown | 41.2 | 12.9 | 0.00 | -3.29 | 2.5 | 28 | 27 | 90 | 42 | 47 |
| Jahan Dotson | 40.5 | 12.4 | 0.01 | -1.84 | 1.2 | 33 | 21 | 83 | 51 | 47 |
| Christian Kirk | 40.6 | 10.4 | 0.00 | 0.89 | 3.3 | 68 | 25 | 60 | 36 | 47 |
| Mack Hollins | 39.4 | 9.7 | 0.00 | 4.66 | -1.6 | 82 | 27 | 8 | 72 | 47 |
| Noah Brown | 41.8 | 11.0 | 0.00 | 2.62 | -2.3 | 53 | 27 | 32 | 77 | 47 |
| Allen Lazard | 38.8 | 11.0 | -0.05 | 6.00 | 0.5 | 54 | 79 | 2 | 56 | 48 |
| Josh Palmer | 42.1 | 11.5 | 0.00 | 2.31 | -4.0 | 43 | 27 | 34 | 87 | 48 |
| Sammy Watkins | 42.1 | 10.0 | 0.13 | 1.88 | -1.4 | 78 | 2 | 42 | 70 | 48 |
| Brandin Cooks | 38.6 | 11.1 | 0.00 | -0.96 | 2.8 | 52 | 27 | 77 | 41 | 49 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 41.9 | 9.0 | 0.01 | 4.67 | -3.6 | 86 | 23 | 7 | 82 | 50 |
| Gabriel Davis | 41.8 | 11.2 | -0.12 | 3.51 | 3.0 | 51 | 93 | 20 | 38 | 51 |
| Van Jefferson | 39.8 | 10.2 | 0.00 | 2.16 | -0.9 | 73 | 27 | 37 | 68 | 51 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 58.5 | 16.8 | -0.03 | 1.47 | -1.9 | 4 | 78 | 50 | 73 | 51 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 40.9 | 9.9 | -0.02 | 4.78 | 1.7 | 80 | 77 | 4 | 45 | 52 |
| Romeo Doubs | 37.2 | 10.3 | 0.00 | 2.85 | -3.6 | 70 | 27 | 27 | 83 | 52 |
| Adam Thielen | 39.4 | 10.6 | 0.00 | 2.25 | -3.7 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 84 | 52 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 41.8 | 12.0 | -0.02 | 1.74 | 1.4 | 37 | 74 | 48 | 49 | 52 |
| Greg Dortch | 40.7 | 12.7 | 0.00 | -5.07 | 0.1 | 30 | 27 | 94 | 58 | 52 |
| Alec Pierce | 43.9 | 11.5 | -0.02 | 2.63 | -0.8 | 44 | 76 | 30 | 67 | 54 |
| Corey Davis | 37.6 | 9.4 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 1.2 | 85 | 27 | 54 | 52 | 55 |
| Damiere Byrd | 40.1 | 11.9 | 0.00 | -4.20 | -0.1 | 40 | 27 | 93 | 60 | 55 |
| Marvin Jones Jr. | 40.8 | 7.6 | 0.00 | 3.59 | -3.9 | 91 | 27 | 16 | 86 | 55 |
| Keenan Allen | 41.9 | 14.7 | -0.16 | 2.70 | -2.9 | 19 | 96 | 29 | 79 | 56 |
| Courtland Sutton | 39.1 | 10.7 | -0.08 | 3.43 | -0.8 | 60 | 86 | 21 | 65 | 58 |
| Dante Pettis | 42.0 | 10.2 | 0.00 | 0.56 | -1.4 | 71 | 27 | 64 | 71 | 58 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 35.0 | 10.0 | -0.11 | 4.76 | -0.8 | 77 | 91 | 5 | 66 | 60 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 40.4 | 10.5 | 0.00 | 0.36 | -3.3 | 66 | 27 | 65 | 81 | 60 |
| Justin Watson | 35.7 | 6.9 | 0.00 | 2.62 | -7.2 | 93 | 27 | 31 | 92 | 61 |
| Robert Woods | 40.1 | 10.5 | 0.00 | -2.14 | -0.4 | 67 | 27 | 86 | 63 | 61 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 39.4 | 11.2 | 0.00 | -1.12 | -4.0 | 50 | 27 | 78 | 88 | 61 |
| Richie James Jr. | 43.9 | 12.7 | -0.01 | -2.82 | 0.8 | 31 | 72 | 88 | 54 | 61 |
| Quez Watkins | 41.5 | 9.9 | -0.10 | 0.61 | 7.4 | 79 | 89 | 63 | 14 | 61 |
| Darius Slayton | 40.1 | 10.8 | 0.00 | 1.84 | -2.0 | 58 | 70 | 45 | 74 | 62 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 40.3 | 11.2 | 0.00 | -5.98 | -2.2 | 49 | 27 | 96 | 75 | 62 |
| Brandon Powell | 32.6 | 10.1 | 0.00 | -3.50 | 0.3 | 74 | 27 | 91 | 57 | 62 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 39.7 | 5.7 | 0.00 | 2.21 | -8.1 | 96 | 27 | 36 | 94 | 63 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 39.5 | 9.6 | 0.12 | -2.58 | -3.7 | 84 | 5 | 87 | 85 | 65 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 38.8 | 8.0 | 0.00 | -0.89 | -2.3 | 88 | 27 | 74 | 78 | 67 |
| K.J. Osborn | 39.4 | 9.8 | 0.00 | 0.24 | -7.6 | 81 | 27 | 67 | 93 | 67 |
| Elijah Moore | 37.9 | 8.0 | 0.00 | -3.99 | -1.2 | 89 | 27 | 92 | 69 | 69 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III | 39.8 | 8.1 | 0.00 | -1.17 | -6.3 | 87 | 27 | 79 | 91 | 71 |
| Diontae Johnson | 40.7 | 10.6 | -0.09 | -2.84 | 1.4 | 63 | 88 | 89 | 47 | 72 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 41.7 | 10.6 | -0.01 | -1.60 | -3.3 | 64 | 71 | 81 | 80 | 74 |
| David Bell | 37.9 | 6.0 | -0.12 | 2.95 | -5.2 | 95 | 94 | 26 | 90 | 76 |
| Marquez Callaway | 39.4 | 7.8 | -0.10 | 1.97 | -5.1 | 90 | 90 | 40 | 89 | 77 |
| Steven Sims | 29.4 | 6.4 | 0.00 | -5.20 | -15.6 | 94 | 27 | 95 | 96 | 78 |
| Freddie Swain | 39.2 | 7.0 | -0.05 | -0.90 | -9.9 | 92 | 81 | 75 | 95 | 86 |
*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.
Legend
- Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
- Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.
Example:
- Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run
This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)
- *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
- *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
- nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB
*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)
Secondary/Bonus Chart
For this week, we included data points/a model to represent the target share CHANGES given specific circumstances (Blitz, Man) we expect the WR to see, given the opponent’s tendencies. As we’ve noted previously, how a QB operates and who he targets can change drastically given the defensive scheme, so keeping the data below in consideration for setting your lineup on a weekly basis is key.
NOTE: For Week 17, I spared you the players within +/-2% change, and the chart below ONLY displays players that have a (relatively) strong indication in either direction
A few notes on the data below:
- ALL stats ignore game scripts of greater than a 16-point differential (either way), the goal line (and from 0-10 yard line), and 4th downs and quarters
- All % next to a WR represent target SHARE given the circumstance (i.e., Nico Collins is seeing 24% of targets without a blitz and 62% when blitzed)
- The first 6 columns represent how the respective WR performs, along with a “bonus” that’s reflective of target share increasing with Blitz (vs. non-Blitz) and Man (vs. Zone), meaning a negative number is not “bad,” but more so that the WR’s target share gets a bump with no Blitz or Zone respectively.
- The middle columns represent the WR’s opponent’s tendencies, along with a (3rd and 5th row in the middle section) metric for how many percentage points above or below league average THAT defense sends blitz/runs Man
- The last 3 columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect
| Player | no blitz | BLITZ | zone | MAN | BLITZ bonus | MAN bonus | Opp | BRAnflAVG | MRAnflAVG | Blitz bonus | Man bonus | net | ||
| Justin Jefferson | 62% | 72% | 59% | 71% | 10% | 12% | Packers | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 3% | ||
| Curtis Samuel | 37% | -3% | 30% | 17% | -40% | -14% | Browns | -5% | -1% | 2% | 0% | 2% | ||
| Chris Godwin | 19% | 42% | 25% | 16% | 23% | -9% | Panthers | 6% | -7% | 1% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Ben Skowronek | 15% | 27% | 13% | 26% | 13% | 14% | Chargers | 3% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Elijah Moore | 29% | 14% | 24% | 18% | -16% | -6% | Seahawks | -9% | -4% | 1% | 0% | 2% | ||
| DeVante Parker | 31% | 49% | 33% | 22% | 19% | -11% | Dolphins | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2% | ||
| Romeo Doubs | 5% | 29% | 11% | 12% | 24% | 1% | Vikings | -6% | -14% | -2% | 0% | -2% | ||
| K.J. Osborn | 11% | 3% | 8% | 5% | -8% | -4% | Packers | 17% | 6% | -1% | 0% | -2% | ||
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 35% | 36% | 36% | 25% | 1% | -12% | Giants | 16% | 16% | 0% | -2% | -2% | ||
| Jakobi Meyers | 37% | 19% | 30% | 30% | -18% | 0% | Dolphins | 11% | 4% | -2% | 0% | -2% | ||
| Demarcus Robinson | 27% | 15% | 25% | 11% | -12% | -15% | Steelers | 5% | 9% | -1% | -1% | -2% | ||
| Marquise Brown | 22% | 46% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 10% | Falcons | -7% | -3% | -2% | 0% | -2% | ||
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 26% | 15% | 29% | 8% | -11% | -21% | Lions | 9% | 6% | -1% | -1% | -2% | ||
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 26% | 16% | 31% | 4% | -10% | -26% | Cowboys | 1% | 9% | 0% | -2% | -2% | ||
| Darius Slayton | 47% | 68% | 46% | 48% | 21% | 1% | Colts | -12% | 2% | -3% | 0% | -2% | ||
| Garrett Wilson | 31% | 54% | 34% | 54% | 23% | 21% | Seahawks | -9% | -4% | -2% | -1% | -3% |
*ONLY WRs with > +- 2% Included in chart above
**Thanks to our friends at Sports Info Solutions and their SIS Database for the info!
***NEW NOTE: the “target share” is not “target ONLY,” but Intended Air Yard share (IAY share) as this gives us a clearer picture not only of target share but the potential magnitude of said share
****Players that have played on 2 separate teams in 2022 are excluded (as they blur the percentage shares)
WR Matchups to Target in Week 17
*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)
DeVante Parker
Parker comes into the week with an interesting schematic advantage, amplified by an inverse finding applied to fellow Patriot WR Jakobi Meyers (that our models are relatively fading this week). Parker has proven to be the Patriots QB WR of choice when faced with the blitz. Parker sees a 49% target share (compared to 31% without a blitz), which is enticing as he faces the Dolphins this week, that blitz 11% points more than the league average. As noted, what makes this play even stronger, is the additional “layer of evidence” we see in the fact that “typical target share king” Jakobi Meyers has an inverse relationship when blitzed, seeing a 37% target share when NOT blitzed, but only 19% when blitzed. In other words, from a predictive standpoint, it’s fairly easy to point to targets “typically” going Meyer’s way, which are re-routed to Parker when blitzed.
Tee Higgins
Higgins is another WR we have keyed in on for multiple weeks this season (which is usually a good sign, meaning we have a “feel for what variables correlate to his fantasy success”). For this week, our base model really likes Higgins’ individual matchup. Coming in at our “best” matchup overall for the week, the veteran WR has all 4 indicators pointing up, including BOTH advanced analytic plays. This is especially true for his net PFF (weighted) grade for the week. We expect Higgins to face a few different cover men on the week. Still, the majority of snaps should be against Tre’Davious White (43% pass snaps), who, despite being considered a quality DB, has only a 58.1 PFF Grade vs. Higgins’ 80.4.
WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 17
Darius Slayton
Slayton is another “frequent flier” on our start/sit lists, but typically in the other direction. Here, our secondary model does not like his schematic splits relating to the defense bringing the blitz. All accidental rhyming aside, despite Slayton having healthy target shares in almost any circumstance, relatively speaking, he sees his “monster shares” vs. the Blitz (68% vs. 47%). And given the Colts have one of the league’s lowest blitz rates (12 percentage points below league average), for a WR that has been relatively “boom or bust” of late, we are fading him this week.
Michael Pittman Jr
It’s hard to make a case for another WR that has fallen so far from the top during his early season fantasy success than Pittman. Along that overall trend, our base model does not like his “physical matchup” this week. Specifically his matchup vs. CB Faian Moreau. With an expected 37% of his pass snaps going up against Moreau, it’s tough to see Pittman gaining much separation with his 4.52 40 going up against Moreau’s 4.35. Take this along with a slight schematic disadvantage (see secondary chart), and we’re keeping Pittman on the bench this week.
Marquise Brown
Not bragging, but after back-to-back weeks spotting a DeAndre Hopkins fade, we feel we’ve gained some insight into what makes the Cardinals WRs produce. This is particularly this weekend when you consider the potential scheme Brown’s likely to face. Brown more than doubles his target share from 22% to 46% when blitzed. This is not great for the downfield speedster, as the Falcons send the house 7 percentage points less than the league average.
Hopefully, this data helps you build the ideal lineup to propel you through the championship weeks!
See you all next week.
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