If you haven’t started your league’s fantasy playoffs in Week 14, you’re definitely in the thick of it now. If you’re new to the series, the purpose of this piece is to help you navigate a tricky landscape, ignore the noise from talking heads and hone in on PREDICTIVE variables to help you determine your WR lineup.
Let’s jump right in.
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Week 14 Results:
Although we went 2-2 with our selections, we netted you about 10 points, so we’ll call that a WIN.
If you haven’t started your league’s fantasy playoffs in Week 14, you’re definitely in the thick of it now. If you’re new to the series, the purpose of this piece is to help you navigate a tricky landscape, ignore the noise from talking heads and hone in on PREDICTIVE variables to help you determine your WR lineup.
Let’s jump right in.
Get the FantasyPros News App for iOS and Android now
Week 14 Results:
Although we went 2-2 with our selections, we netted you about 10 points, so we’ll call that a WIN.
| Name | FP Selection | Projected | Actual | Net |
| *Nico Collins | START | – | – | – |
| Josh Reynolds | START | 7.1 | 16.1 | +9.0 |
| Christian Kirk | START | 14.6 | 9.5 | -5.1 |
| Amari Cooper | SIT | 14.4 | 6.2 | -8.2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | SIT | 11.1 | 13.7 | +2.6 |
*Did Not Play
Season Scored Card
Season Record: 49-32
*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR
Week 15 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard
| Raw Numbers | Weekly Rank | |||||||||
| Snaps | Wt.ed Net pprr | 40 Adv. | HT Adv. | nPFFwted Total | Wt.ed Net pprr | 40 Adv. | HT Adv. | nPFFwted Total | Avg. Rk. | |
| CeeDee Lamb | 57.3 | 21.8 | 0.00 | 3.47 | 11.2 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 3 | 9 |
| Drake London | 55.1 | 17.0 | 0.00 | 3.88 | 10.9 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 5 | 11 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 39.2 | 13.8 | 0.00 | 4.11 | 8.7 | 26 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 15 |
| Davante Adams | 39.9 | 16.6 | 0.02 | 2.98 | 7.6 | 11 | 10 | 25 | 16 | 16 |
| Tee Higgins | 41.2 | 16.0 | 0.00 | 3.14 | 7.5 | 13 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 17 |
| Stefon Diggs | 42.1 | 18.1 | 0.05 | 0.81 | 10.8 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 6 | 17 |
| A.J. Brown | 42.9 | 17.4 | 0.00 | 1.34 | 11.1 | 8 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 18 |
| Mike Williams | 41.9 | 13.6 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 6.0 | 28 | 15 | 6 | 24 | 18 |
| Garrett Wilson | 66.4 | 22.7 | 0.04 | 0.42 | 6.7 | 1 | 5 | 53 | 20 | 20 |
| Chris Olave | 52.9 | 19.8 | 0.04 | 0.74 | 6.5 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 21 | 21 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 38.1 | 15.5 | 0.00 | 1.68 | 7.9 | 14 | 15 | 40 | 15 | 21 |
| Tyreek Hill | 39.2 | 18.7 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 12.1 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 2 | 24 |
| Treylon Burks | 42.7 | 15.4 | 0.00 | 2.28 | 3.8 | 15 | 15 | 31 | 36 | 24 |
| Christian Watson | 43.0 | 18.6 | 0.00 | 5.34 | -0.4 | 6 | 15 | 5 | 75 | 25 |
| Terry McLaurin | 41.3 | 13.3 | 0.03 | 0.26 | 8.5 | 31 | 7 | 58 | 11 | 27 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 41.0 | 17.3 | 0.00 | -0.78 | 8.5 | 9 | 15 | 72 | 12 | 27 |
| Curtis Samuel | 39.8 | 11.5 | 0.12 | 0.27 | 17.0 | 48 | 2 | 57 | 1 | 27 |
| Justin Jefferson | 39.6 | 13.9 | 0.00 | 1.79 | 4.5 | 25 | 15 | 36 | 34 | 28 |
| DeVonta Smith | 42.9 | 13.9 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 7.1 | 24 | 15 | 54 | 19 | 28 |
| Gabriel Davis | 42.0 | 11.8 | 0.00 | 3.92 | 2.9 | 46 | 15 | 11 | 41 | 28 |
| DeSean Jackson | 41.0 | 16.4 | 0.06 | -2.62 | 8.6 | 12 | 3 | 90 | 9 | 29 |
| Darius Slayton | 39.8 | 13.3 | 0.00 | 1.66 | 4.7 | 30 | 15 | 41 | 32 | 30 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 39.3 | 14.8 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 7.9 | 17 | 15 | 76 | 14 | 31 |
| Allen Lazard | 38.8 | 11.9 | 0.00 | 5.44 | 0.8 | 45 | 15 | 4 | 61 | 31 |
| Julio Jones | 40.6 | 10.4 | 0.02 | 3.88 | 3.5 | 69 | 11 | 12 | 39 | 33 |
| Quez Watkins | 42.4 | 13.1 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 5.9 | 35 | 13 | 61 | 25 | 34 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 38.4 | 13.5 | 0.00 | -0.42 | 5.9 | 29 | 15 | 69 | 26 | 35 |
| George Pickens | 58.1 | 12.8 | 0.00 | 1.72 | 1.8 | 36 | 15 | 38 | 50 | 35 |
| Chris Godwin | 40.3 | 11.3 | 0.00 | 3.18 | 1.8 | 55 | 15 | 18 | 51 | 35 |
| Corey Davis | 37.7 | 10.8 | 0.00 | 3.35 | 2.6 | 64 | 15 | 17 | 43 | 35 |
| Jauan Jennings | 40.5 | 11.4 | 0.00 | 1.49 | 5.1 | 52 | 15 | 44 | 29 | 35 |
| DeVante Parker | 39.3 | 10.8 | 0.00 | 2.84 | 3.6 | 63 | 15 | 28 | 37 | 36 |
| Trenton Irwin | 41.4 | 12.5 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 2.6 | 37 | 15 | 46 | 45 | 36 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 39.1 | 11.4 | 0.00 | 3.15 | 0.8 | 50 | 15 | 19 | 60 | 36 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 42.3 | 14.2 | -0.01 | 4.43 | 5.2 | 21 | 87 | 9 | 28 | 36 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 43.0 | 11.0 | 0.00 | 2.80 | 2.8 | 59 | 15 | 29 | 42 | 36 |
| Zay Jones | 39.3 | 14.1 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 0.3 | 22 | 15 | 47 | 66 | 38 |
| Josh Palmer | 41.7 | 11.0 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 1.6 | 58 | 15 | 23 | 55 | 38 |
| Damiere Byrd | 39.7 | 13.3 | 0.00 | -2.94 | 8.2 | 32 | 15 | 91 | 13 | 38 |
| Noah Brown | 42.1 | 11.0 | 0.00 | 3.06 | 1.8 | 61 | 15 | 22 | 53 | 38 |
| Michael Pittman | 39.6 | 11.3 | 0.02 | 3.08 | 0.4 | 54 | 12 | 21 | 65 | 38 |
| Laviska Shenault | 39.0 | 18.7 | -0.06 | 1.64 | 7.5 | 5 | 89 | 42 | 17 | 38 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 40.9 | 12.4 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 3.2 | 39 | 15 | 59 | 40 | 38 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 39.9 | 12.3 | 0.00 | -3.73 | 8.6 | 40 | 15 | 94 | 10 | 40 |
| Tutu Atwell | 33.0 | 13.2 | 0.00 | -1.72 | 5.1 | 33 | 15 | 83 | 30 | 40 |
| Trent Sherfield | 39.8 | 10.1 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.6 | 70 | 15 | 33 | 44 | 41 |
| Tyler Lockett | 38.9 | 14.6 | 0.00 | -1.72 | 2.0 | 19 | 15 | 82 | 48 | 41 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 40.5 | 13.2 | 0.01 | -2.22 | 5.0 | 34 | 14 | 85 | 31 | 41 |
| Terrace Marshall | 39.8 | 10.0 | 0.00 | 2.96 | 1.8 | 72 | 15 | 26 | 52 | 41 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 41.1 | 14.9 | -0.13 | 2.16 | 6.2 | 16 | 94 | 32 | 23 | 41 |
| Amari Cooper | 40.9 | 13.7 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 1.5 | 27 | 15 | 68 | 56 | 42 |
| Jahan Dotson | 51.9 | 14.5 | 0.00 | -0.93 | 1.3 | 20 | 15 | 74 | 57 | 42 |
| Michael Gallup | 42.1 | 11.0 | 0.00 | 1.96 | 0.8 | 57 | 15 | 35 | 62 | 42 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 39.7 | 10.5 | 0.00 | 3.48 | -0.1 | 68 | 15 | 14 | 74 | 43 |
| Robert Woods | 39.4 | 10.7 | 0.00 | 1.53 | 1.9 | 65 | 15 | 43 | 49 | 43 |
| Keenan Allen | 41.5 | 12.4 | -0.07 | 3.00 | 6.4 | 38 | 92 | 23 | 22 | 44 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 42.8 | 8.0 | 0.00 | 5.64 | -1.1 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 78 | 45 |
| Richie James | 40.9 | 10.7 | 0.00 | -0.61 | 4.6 | 67 | 15 | 71 | 33 | 47 |
| D.J. Chark | 38.8 | 9.3 | 0.00 | 4.67 | -2.6 | 79 | 15 | 8 | 85 | 47 |
| Devin Duvernay | 40.9 | 11.3 | 0.00 | -1.65 | 3.5 | 53 | 15 | 81 | 38 | 47 |
| Mike Evans | 40.6 | 10.9 | -0.06 | 6.08 | 4.1 | 62 | 90 | 1 | 35 | 47 |
| Marvin Jones | 39.3 | 12.2 | 0.00 | 0.89 | -2.1 | 42 | 15 | 50 | 82 | 47 |
| Parris Campbell | 39.6 | 10.0 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 1.1 | 73 | 1 | 60 | 59 | 48 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 40.9 | 11.0 | 0.02 | 0.98 | -0.8 | 60 | 9 | 48 | 76 | 48 |
| Chase Claypool | 41.7 | 8.9 | 0.00 | 4.89 | -3.8 | 83 | 15 | 7 | 88 | 48 |
| Christian Kirk | 39.1 | 14.7 | 0.00 | -1.34 | -1.6 | 18 | 15 | 80 | 80 | 48 |
| Josh Reynolds | 38.8 | 9.4 | 0.00 | 3.44 | -3.6 | 77 | 15 | 16 | 87 | 49 |
| D.J. Moore | 39.6 | 11.4 | 0.00 | -0.84 | 1.1 | 49 | 15 | 73 | 58 | 49 |
| Nelson Agholor | 39.1 | 11.5 | 0.03 | 0.09 | -1.2 | 47 | 8 | 62 | 79 | 49 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 38.9 | 12.3 | 0.00 | -2.29 | 0.6 | 41 | 15 | 87 | 64 | 52 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 39.2 | 14.0 | -0.01 | 0.35 | 2.1 | 23 | 86 | 55 | 47 | 53 |
| Adam Thielen | 39.8 | 9.1 | 0.00 | 2.54 | -2.7 | 81 | 15 | 30 | 86 | 53 |
| Keelan Cole | 39.9 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 2.96 | -6.6 | 89 | 15 | 27 | 94 | 56 |
| Steven Sims | 26.7 | 4.7 | 0.00 | -4.49 | 5.7 | 90 | 15 | 95 | 27 | 57 |
| Marquise Brown | 41.0 | 11.4 | 0.00 | -2.48 | -0.1 | 51 | 15 | 89 | 73 | 57 |
| Dante Pettis | 41.7 | 8.2 | 0.00 | 1.75 | -5.6 | 84 | 15 | 37 | 93 | 57 |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 41.8 | 12.1 | 0.00 | -2.33 | -2.4 | 43 | 15 | 88 | 84 | 58 |
| Brandon Johnson | 40.2 | 7.4 | 0.00 | 1.98 | -6.7 | 87 | 15 | 34 | 95 | 58 |
| Randall Cobb | 39.6 | 11.1 | -0.07 | -1.20 | 9.8 | 56 | 91 | 78 | 7 | 58 |
| A.J. Green | 41.0 | 0.5 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.0 | 91 | 15 | 56 | 72 | 59 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 40.7 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 92 | 15 | 63 | 67 | 59 |
| Ben Skowronek | 37.3 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 92 | 15 | 63 | 67 | 59 |
| Justin Watson | 35.4 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 92 | 15 | 63 | 67 | 59 |
| Van Jefferson | 39.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 92 | 15 | 63 | 67 | 59 |
| Amari Rodgers | 37.1 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 92 | 15 | 63 | 67 | 59 |
| Diontae Johnson | 41.4 | 9.4 | 0.00 | -3.20 | 1.7 | 78 | 15 | 93 | 54 | 60 |
| Mack Hollins | 39.9 | 10.1 | 0.00 | 5.75 | -2.4 | 71 | 85 | 2 | 83 | 60 |
| Elijah Moore | 38.0 | 9.1 | 0.00 | -1.23 | -1.0 | 82 | 15 | 79 | 77 | 63 |
| Kendall Hinton | 40.5 | 9.7 | 0.00 | -2.27 | -1.7 | 75 | 15 | 86 | 81 | 64 |
| Jarvis Landry | 39.9 | 12.0 | -0.23 | -1.16 | 2.2 | 44 | 96 | 77 | 46 | 66 |
| K.J. Osborn | 39.8 | 6.9 | 0.00 | -0.49 | -4.8 | 88 | 15 | 70 | 92 | 66 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 37.4 | 9.2 | 0.00 | -3.18 | -4.1 | 80 | 15 | 92 | 89 | 69 |
| David Bell | 36.8 | 7.9 | 0.00 | -1.92 | -17.2 | 86 | 15 | 84 | 96 | 70 |
| Alec Pierce | 43.3 | 10.7 | -0.04 | 1.70 | -4.3 | 66 | 88 | 39 | 90 | 71 |
| Chris Moore | 35.3 | 9.5 | -0.09 | 0.97 | -4.6 | 76 | 93 | 49 | 91 | 77 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 37.1 | 9.9 | -0.19 | -5.97 | 0.7 | 74 | 95 | 96 | 63 | 82 |
*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.
Legend
- Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
- Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.
Example:
- Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
- DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
- DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
- DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run
This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)
- *40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
- *HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
- nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB
*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)
SECONDARY / BONUS CHART:
For this week, we included data points/a model to represent the target share CHANGES given specific circumstances (Blitz, Man) we expect the WR to see, given the opponent’s tendencies. As we’ve noted previously, how a QB operates and who he targets can change drastically given the defensive scheme, so keeping the data below in consideration for setting your lineup on a weekly basis is key.
NOTE: For Week 15, I spared you the players within +/-2% change, and the chart below ONLY displays players that have a (relatively) strong indication in either direction
A few notes on the data below:
- ALL stats ignore game scripts of greater than a 16-point differential (either way), the goaline (and from 0-10 yard line) and 4th downs and quarters
- All % next to a WR represent target SHARE given the circumstance (i.e., Nico Collins is seeing 24% of targets without a blitz and 62% when blitzed)
- The first six columns represent how the respective WR performs, along with a “bonus” that’s reflective of target share increasing with Blitz (vs. non-Blitz) and Man (vs. Zone), meaning a negative number is not “bad,” but more so that the WR’s target share gets a bump with no Blitz or Zone respectively
- The middle columns represent the WR’s opponent’s tendencies, along with a (third and fifth row in the middle section) metric for how many percentage points above or below league average THAT defense sends blitz/runs Man
- The last three columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect
| Player | Team | no blitz | BLITZ | zone | MAN | BLITZ bonus | MAN bonus | Opp | BRAnflAVG | MRAnflAVG | Blitz bonus | Man bonus | ||
| Terry McLaurin | Commanders | 50% | 70% | 47% | 51% | 20% | 4% | Giants | 16% | 16% | 3% | 1% | ||
| Garrett Wilson | Jets | 31% | 54% | 34% | 54% | 23% | 21% | Lions | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Ben Skowronek | Rams | 15% | 27% | 13% | 26% | 13% | 14% | Packers | 17% | 6% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Cooper Kupp | Rams | 38% | 58% | 44% | 35% | 20% | -9% | Packers | 17% | 6% | 3% | -1% | ||
| Josh Palmer | Chargers | 36% | 17% | 31% | 19% | -19% | -11% | Titans | -12% | -4% | 2% | 0% | ||
| Marquise Brown | Cardinals | 22% | 46% | 23% | 33% | 25% | 10% | Broncos | 10% | -2% | 2% | 0% | ||
| Michael Pittman Jr. | Colts | 35% | 36% | 36% | 25% | 1% | -12% | Vikings | -6% | -14% | 0% | 2% | ||
| Diontae Johnson | Steelers | 39% | 34% | 35% | 55% | -5% | 21% | Panthers | 6% | -7% | 0% | -1% | ||
| Elijah Moore | Jets | 29% | 14% | 24% | 18% | -16% | -6% | Lions | 9% | 6% | -1% | 0% | ||
| Alec Pierce | Colts | 30% | 19% | 19% | 38% | -11% | 19% | Vikings | -6% | -14% | 1% | -3% | ||
| Jerry Jeudy | Broncos | 28% | 30% | 18% | 40% | 2% | 22% | Cardinals | 7% | -10% | 0% | -2% | ||
| Allen Lazard | Packers | 53% | 29% | 26% | 43% | -25% | 17% | Rams | 3% | -10% | -1% | -2% | ||
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | Titans | 26% | 16% | 31% | 4% | -10% | -26% | Chargers | 3% | 9% | 0% | -2% | ||
| Chris Olave | Saints | 49% | 69% | 24% | 66% | 20% | 42% | Falcons | -7% | -3% | -1% | -1% | ||
| Curtis Samuel | Commanders | 37% | -3% | 30% | 17% | -40% | -14% | Giants | 16% | 16% | -6% | -2% |
*ONLY WRs with > +- 2% Included in chart above
**Thanks to our friends at Sports Info Solutions and their SIS Database for the info!
***NEW NOTE: the “target share” is not “target ONLY,” but Intended Air Yard share (IAY share) as this gives us a clearer picture not only of target share but the potential magnitude of said share
****Players that have played on two separate teams in 2022 are excluded (as they blur the percentage shares)
WR Matchups to Target in Week 15
*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)
Garrett Wilson
Wilson comes in with both of our models liking his matchup this week. To start, he comes in as our ninth-best base model’s play of the week. And this is not one of those situations where a single variable is “carrying the weight.” He comes in with the No. 1 best Weighted Points per Route Run (PPRR) grade, fifth-best speed advantage and 20th-best net PFF grade. Most of this has to do with the expected matchup vs. Jeffrey Okudah (44% expected pass snaps). Wilson is faster (4.38 vs. 4.48 40-yard dash) and sports an 81 PFF grade (vs. Okudah’s 64.3). Take that along with the fact Wilson sees a bump in target share vs. Man AND Blitz, with the Lions blitzing/deploying man coverage 9% and 6% more than the league average, respectively. We love Wilson this week!
Josh Palmer
Josh Palmer’s Intended Air Yard share almost doubles vs. “vanilla defenses” (zone/no blitz). This is good news for the young WR as the Titans blitz 12 percentage points less than the league average and play zone 4% points MORE than the league average. Besides this, he boasts a strong “physical advantage” on the week. Palmer comes in with top 25 matchups in both size and speed. Granted, he is likely to see a relatively even split between DBs Terrance Mitchell (34%), Roger McCreary (33%) and Amani Hooker (33%), but he has three inches of height on all of them (74 inches vs. 71 inches).
Drake London
I’ll admit our base model always seems to be fond of London’s outlook for any given week, but we have multiple signals pointing up for the rookie WR. Beyond coming in as our second overall matchup grade on the week, Drake sees a marginal bump (33% vs. 38%) in Intended Air Yard (IAY) share when facing man coverage. This is good news, as the Saints play man 10% points more Man Coverage than the NFL average.
WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 15
Chris Godwin
The veteran WR has jumped back to his typical role after a slow start to the year coming off an injury. However, we have noticed a legitimate split in an offense with multiple legitimate WRs: although Godwin sees a 42% IAY ownership when facing the blitz, that drops to 19% when NOT blitzed. As the Bengals bring pressure 5% points less than the league average, not to mention the oddity of Godwin having the rare split of “wanting a zone + blitz” and the Bengals being more of a man team, schematically, this is not a good spot for him. Not to mention we expect him to face Mike Hilton (77% expected pass snaps). Godwin’s .36 fantasy points per route run will likely be dragged down by Hilton’s .19.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is typically “immune” to whatever DB you throw at him, but relatively speaking, this may not be the best week (at least) to add him to your DFS lineup. It looks like he will face Damarri Mathis for most of the game (71% expected pass snaps). Mathis has a clear speed advantage vs. the veteran WR (4.57 vs. 4.39), AND we’re looking at a likely “schematic dip.” That is, Hopkins sees more IAY (47 vs. 39 percent) when NOT blitzed and a much bigger chunk vs. Man coverage (I’ll admit an odd split, guessing he “loves” the drop 8 Cover 1 type sets), earning 51% IAY vs. Man, but 36% vs. zone. Although these data points are mutually exclusive, this doesn’t exactly bode well as the Broncos play a bit more zone (2% more than league average) yet are blitz-heavy, bringing 10% more pressure than league average.
We hope this piece helps you as you move in during the fantasy playoff weekend! See you back next week!
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