Ryan Newman | Wed, Dec 7th 2022, 10:29am EST

WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 14 (2022 Fantasy Football)

We are closing in on the Fantasy Football playoffs among all the chaos, parity, and “changings of the guard” (yes, that’s the oddly correct plural) within the 2022 NFL Season. Unfortunately, the schedule makers did not consider us fantasy football managers, as we have six teams on a bye in Week 14. Our models below will try to quiet the noise, peel back the variance and help you select the optimal WRs in your lineup this week.

Week 13 Results

Our winning streak ended, but we find some consolation in a .500 weekend and doing relatively well (in magnitude/points) sans the AJ Brown call.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Corey Davis	START	8.2	13.5	+5.3
Darius Slayton	START	11.2	15.0	+3.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	START	9.1	9.1	0
Jerry Jeudy	SIT	9.9	10.5	+.6
A.J. Brown	SIT	16.4	32	+15.6

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 47-30

Week 13 Results

Our winning streak ended, but we find some consolation in a .500 weekend and doing relatively well (in magnitude/points) sans the AJ Brown call.

Name	FP Selection	Projected	Actual	Net
Corey Davis	START	8.2	13.5	+5.3
Darius Slayton	START	11.2	15.0	+3.8
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	START	9.1	9.1	0
Jerry Jeudy	SIT	9.9	10.5	+.6
A.J. Brown	SIT	16.4	32	+15.6

Season Scored Card

Season Record: 47-30

*All stats based on Yahoo Fantasy Football 1/2 PPR

Week 14 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

		Raw Numbers				Weekly Rank
	Snaps	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Wt.ed Net pprr	40 Adv.	HT Adv.	nPFFwted Total	Avg. Rk.
Tee Higgins	40.7	14.6	0.00	3.49	7.9	14	14	13	9	13
Amon-Ra St. Brown	38.3	16.8	0.00	1.99	17.0	7	14	33	1	14
Mike Williams	42.0	13.0	0.00	4.98	5.4	27	14	4	22	17
Laviska Shenault Jr.	38.7	18.9	0.00	0.29	9.2	3	14	51	6	19
Tyreek Hill	40.4	19.5	0.00	-0.40	11.2	1	14	59	3	19
Justin Jefferson	39.6	15.2	0.01	0.79	9.2	12	12	48	5	19
Treylon Burks	42.7	16.0	0.00	2.16	4.8	9	14	32	24	20
D.K. Metcalf	39.8	12.3	0.02	1.61	7.3	28	8	37	13	22
Mike Evans	39.9	12.1	0.00	5.91	1.8	30	14	1	43	22
Garrett Wilson	45.6	15.4	0.00	0.32	6.9	11	14	50	16	23
CeeDee Lamb	58.0	19.1	0.00	3.79	5.9	2	59	10	20	23
Chris Godwin	39.6	14.0	0.00	1.84	4.0	15	14	34	28	23
Keenan Allen	41.7	13.7	0.00	3.38	1.2	19	14	17	48	25
Jaylen Waddle	40.6	15.8	0.00	-0.72	6.6	10	14	62	17	26
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	39.7	11.1	0.00	3.05	4.7	44	14	21	26	26
DeVante Parker	39.2	10.1	0.03	3.43	5.2	60	7	15	23	26
Robert Woods	39.4	11.7	0.02	0.95	7.3	36	10	46	14	27
Nico Collins	37.7	13.6	0.00	2.63	1.4	21	14	26	46	27
Ja’Marr Chase	40.4	15.1	0.00	-0.74	5.9	13	14	63	19	27
A.J. Brown	42.6	17.1	0.00	1.23	9.0	5	61	42	7	29
Quez Watkins	42.1	10.3	0.00	1.39	8.4	56	14	39	8	29
DeVonta Smith	42.6	13.8	0.00	-0.09	4.0	18	14	57	30	30
Julio Jones	39.9	11.0	0.00	3.79	0.6	46	14	9	52	30
Davante Adams	40.0	18.2	0.00	0.98	7.7	4	62	45	10	30
Christian Kirk	39.1	11.2	0.01	0.00	7.6	43	11	56	12	31
DeAndre Hopkins	41.9	16.9	-0.17	3.12	5.5	6	76	20	21	31
Josh Palmer	41.8	11.6	0.00	3.02	1.1	37	14	22	50	31
Amari Cooper	41.3	14.0	-0.02	1.77	7.6	16	64	36	11	32
George Pickens	57.6	13.1	0.02	2.47	-3.7	25	9	28	67	32
Nelson Agholor	39.0	11.8	0.04	0.05	2.4	32	5	54	38	32
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	42.1	9.2	0.04	4.51	-0.4	66	2	6	55	32
Darius Slayton	39.7	11.8	0.03	1.35	0.7	33	6	41	51	33
Tyler Boyd	40.7	10.9	0.00	1.05	4.2	49	14	43	27	33
Trent Sherfield	41.1	10.9	0.00	2.30	1.9	48	14	30	42	34
D.J. Chark Jr.	39.0	9.9	0.00	5.31	-0.7	63	14	2	57	34
Corey Davis	36.6	9.5	0.00	3.35	2.2	65	14	18	40	34
Marquise Brown	41.8	13.6	0.00	-1.08	2.4	22	14	65	39	35
Zay Jones	39.3	10.2	0.00	3.00	1.8	58	14	24	44	35
Terrace Marshall Jr.	39.5	10.5	0.00	1.03	3.3	53	14	44	34	36
Devin Duvernay	42.1	11.0	0.18	-0.94	2.5	45	1	64	37	37
Demarcus Robinson	42.0	11.2	0.01	0.10	2.0	42	13	52	41	37
Jauan Jennings	39.5	12.2	-0.36	1.35	12.5	29	78	40	2	37
Adam Thielen	39.8	10.5	0.00	1.55	1.3	52	14	38	47	38
Stefon Diggs	42.1	16.6	0.00	0.09	3.8	8	60	53	32	38
Deebo Samuel	36.7	11.4	0.00	-1.32	3.7	40	14	67	33	39
Gabriel Davis	41.9	10.2	0.00	3.43	-4.7	57	14	14	70	39
A.J. Green	41.8	7.8	0.04	5.27	-12.2	72	4	3	76	39
Noah Brown	42.7	8.1	0.00	3.70	-2.2	71	14	12	61	40
Bennett Skowronek	38.4	8.2	0.00	4.70	-4.0	70	14	5	69	40
Michael Gallup	42.7	10.1	0.00	2.54	-1.2	59	14	27	59	40
Marvin Jones Jr.	39.3	9.0	0.00	3.00	-0.4	68	14	23	54	40
Tyler Lockett	39.4	13.9	0.00	-3.86	11.1	17	63	76	4	40
Mack Hollins	40.0	11.7	-0.05	3.74	1.1	35	67	11	49	41
Van Jefferson	40.3	9.9	0.00	2.22	-0.9	62	14	31	58	41
Chris Moore	37.5	11.9	0.00	0.67	-10.9	31	14	49	75	42
D.J. Moore	39.2	11.4	0.00	-3.16	1.5	39	14	74	45	43
Marquise Goodwin	39.4	10.0	0.04	-4.65	3.9	61	3	77	31	43
Richie James Jr.	38.7	13.0	-0.06	-0.59	7.2	26	70	61	15	43
Donovan Peoples-Jones	41.3	10.5	-0.07	2.76	4.7	54	71	25	25	44
Jakobi Meyers	39.0	13.6	-0.18	-0.41	6.1	20	77	60	18	44
Isaiah Hodgins	39.4	10.6	-0.02	3.96	-0.3	51	65	8	53	44
Justin Watson	33.4	7.5	0.00	2.35	-3.2	75	14	29	65	46
JuJu Smith-Schuster	42.3	11.3	-0.07	1.83	3.3	41	72	35	35	46
Brandon Aiyuk	39.5	13.2	-0.03	-1.26	4.0	24	66	66	29	46
Josh Reynolds	39.0	10.4	-0.05	4.13	-0.6	55	68	7	56	47
Phillip Dorsett	37.7	11.8	0.00	-3.07	-3.5	34	14	73	66	47
Brandon Powell	28.2	9.2	0.00	-2.22	3.1	67	14	71	36	47
Kendall Hinton	38.9	10.9	0.00	-1.85	-2.2	50	14	70	62	49
Courtland Sutton	39.5	10.9	-0.08	3.40	-2.7	47	74	16	63	50
Isaiah McKenzie	41.7	11.6	0.00	-3.23	-8.3	38	14	75	74	50
Keelan Cole	40.0	7.3	0.00	0.94	-8.3	76	14	47	73	53
K.J. Osborn	39.8	8.7	0.00	-1.49	-3.0	69	14	68	64	54
Elijah Moore	36.9	7.8	0.00	-1.73	-1.2	73	14	69	60	54
Jerry Jeudy	39.6	13.5	-0.05	0.03	-8.0	23	69	55	72	55
James Proche	42.2	7.6	0.00	-0.35	-14.3	74	14	58	77	56
David Bell	35.4	6.8	-0.07	3.27	-7.7	77	73	19	71	60
Steven Sims	25.8	4.6	0.00	-5.02	-19.2	78	14	78	78	62
Diontae Johnson	41.1	9.6	-0.12	-2.38	-3.8	64	75	72	68	70

*Again, thanks to our friends at PFF for the data
**To standardize all variables we are tracking (and make it easier to read), we included a RANK Display, respective of each data point to the right AND sorted by the average rank across variables.

Legend

Snaps: estimated total dropback snaps a WR will play in the coming matchup
Wt.ed Net PPRR: “Weighted Net Fantasy Points/Route Run.” Simply this is the net value of a WR’s PPRR average vs. the DB’s PPRR given up, weighted according to the DB each WR is expected to play.

Example:

Say Davante Adams averages 2.0 points/route run
DB1 (expected to face 50% of snaps) gives up 3.0 points/route run
DB2 (expected to face 30% of snaps) gives up 4.0 points/route run
DB3 (expected to face 20% of snaps) gives up 1.0 points/route run

This first model would predict Adams to produce 2.45 points/route run (Adams 2.0 vs. aggregate defenders averages weighted to 2.9)

*40 Adv: “40 Yard Dash Advantage” (weighted difference between WR 40 time and DB’s)
*HT Adv: “Height Advantage” (same as above, but with height)
nPFFwted Total: “Net PFF weighted Total Advantage.” Our core model, similar to the Wt.ed Net PPRR above, it compares the PFF grade between WR and likely DB, weighted by expected snaps he’ll see each respective DB

*Not all WRs and DBs have 40 times, and/or height measurements. When this occurs with ONE party, the model ignores the other (i.e., you need a WR and DB with a 40 time for this data point to populate)

Secondary/Bonus Chart

For this week, we included data points/a model to represent the target share CHANGES given specific circumstances (Blitz, Man) we expect the WR to see, given the opponent’s tendencies. As we’ve noted previously, how a QB operates and who he targets can change drastically given the defensive scheme, so keeping the data below in consideration for setting your lineup on a weekly basis is key.

NOTE: For Week 14, I spared you the players within +/-2% change, and the chart below ONLY displays players that have a (relatively) strong indication in either direction

A few notes on the data below:

ALL stats ignore game scripts of greater than a 16-point differential (either way), the goal line (and from 0-10 yard line) and 4th downs and quarters
All % next to a WR represent target SHARE given the circumstance (i.e., Nico Collins is seeing 24% of targets without a blitz and 62% when blitzed)
The first 6 columns represent how the respective WR performs, along with a “bonus” that’s reflective of target share increasing with Blitz (vs. non-Blitz) and Man (vs. Zone), meaning a negative number is not “bad,” but more so that the WR’s target share gets a bump with no Blitz or Zone respectively.
The middle columns represent the WR’s opponent’s tendencies, along with a (3rd and 5th row in the middle section) metric for how many percentage points above or below league average THAT defense sends blitz/runs Man.
The last three columns give an aggregate of how the WR performs relative to coverage and blitz schemes to expect

WR Details	WR Target Ownership Splits						Opponent Blitz/No Blitz & Man/Zone Splits					Net WR vs. Opp expected value
Player	no blitz %	BLITZ %	Blitz Bonus	zone %	MAN %	Man Bonus	W14 Opp	BLITZ Rate	BR > Avg	MAN RATE	MR>Avg	“Blitz” Bonus	“Man” Bonus	Total “bump”
A.J. Brown	37%	61%	24%	41%	50%	9%	NYG	38%	15%	46%	17%	4%	1%	5%
Nico Collins	24%	62%	38%	17%	46%	28%	DAL	26%	3%	39%	10%	1%	3%	4%
Deebo Samuel	7%	32%	25%	20%	3%	-17%	TB	29%	6%	19%	-10%	2%	2%	3%
Josh Reynolds	41%	11%	-31%	21%	18%	-2%	MIN	14%	-9%	12%	-17%	3%	0%	3%
DeVante Parker	20%	39%	19%	30%	18%	-12%	ARI	33%	10%	18%	-11%	2%	1%	3%
Christian Kirk	44%	28%	-16%	36%	32%	-4%	TEN	10%	-13%	24%	-4%	2%	0%	2%
Tyreek Hill	44%	77%	32%	47%	66%	18%	LAC	25%	1%	39%	10%	0%	2%	2%
Kalif Raymond	27%	25%	-2%	30%	21%	-9%	MIN	14%	-9%	12%	-17%	0%	2%	2%
Davante Adams	50%	72%	22%	49%	48%	-1%	LAR	30%	7%	17%	-11%	1%	0%	2%
Jaylen Waddle	30%	22%	-9%	31%	13%	-18%	LAC	25%	1%	39%	10%	0%	-2%	-2%
Brandon Aiyuk	48%	44%	-4%	40%	57%	17%	TB	29%	6%	19%	-10%	0%	-2%	-2%
Garrett Wilson	28%	47%	19%	29%	42%	13%	BUF	16%	-8%	24%	-5%	-1%	-1%	-2%
Amari Cooper	34%	71%	37%	46%	34%	-11%	CIN	17%	-6%	33%	4%	-2%	0%	-3%
Mack Hollins	26%	19%	-7%	18%	37%	19%	LAR	30%	7%	17%	-11%	0%	-2%	-3%
Brandin Cooks	43%	17%	-26%	35%	13%	-23%	DAL	26%	3%	39%	10%	-1%	-2%	-3%
Josh Palmer	36%	18%	-18%	37%	18%	-19%	MIA	35%	11%	34%	5%	-2%	-1%	-3%
Jauan Jennings	16%	13%	-3%	9%	40%	30%	TB	29%	6%	19%	-10%	0%	-3%	-3%

*ONLY WRs with > +- 2% Included in chart above
**Thanks to our friends at Sports Info Solutions and their SIS Database for the info!

WR Matchups to Target in Week 14

*For the matchup sections below, we refrain from “obvious recommendations” and/or players you are starting no matter what (and the opposite for players recommended to sit)

Nico Collins (WR – HOU)

We have been all over Collins late in the season (in both directions) and feel we have a good read on his splits. Collins is a “Man/Blitz” WR. That is, his target share jumps from 24% to 62% when his QB is blitzed and 17% to 46% when facing Man Coverage. Given the Cowboys’ blitz 3% points more than the league average and play Man 10% points more than the league average, this is a great schematic matchup for Collins. Collins also comes in with a favorable CB matchup coming in the top aggregate quarter of our base for the week. Yes, he will face Trevon Diggs for 51% of his expected pass snaps, but he will also see 36% vs. Kelvin Joseph, who’s sporting a 63.2 PFF Grade, and Collins’ 72.4.

Josh Reynolds (WR – DET)

Reynolds has the inverse split of Collins. He sees a 4x jump in target share when NOT Blitzed (41% vs. 11%) and a marginal bump vs. zone. This is good news for Reynolds, as the Vikings only blitz 14% of the time (9 % points less than the league average). Additionally, Reynolds comes in with one of the week’s best “snap weighted height advantages,” taking his 75 inches up against likely main cover man (40% expected pass snaps) Duke Shelley‘s 69 inches.

Christian Kirk (WR – JAC)

Kirk was a WR we targeted early on in the season, but we lost a good read on him the last few weeks. He popped back up on our radar this week, given a strong schematic split advantage (say that 5 times fast). Kirk, similar to Reynolds, is an “in structure WR,” meaning he prefers NO BLITZ (44% target share vs. 28% with Blitz) and Zone Coverage (36 vs. 32 %). Since the Titans blitz the least in the NFL (10%) and run Man 4% less than the league average, this bodes well for the veteran WR, not to mention a very strong net PFF grade vs. likely (78% expected pass snaps) cover man Amani Hooker. Kirk boasts a 75.1 grade, while Hooker only scores 63.2.

WR Matchups to Avoid in Week 14

Amari Cooper (WR – CLE)

We are all familiar with the odd splits Cooper has put up at home vs. away. Conventional wisdom would point to this simply being “noise,” but the fact it has been maintained across multiple teams is something we can’t completely ignore. Given that the Browns are traveling (not far) this week, many will be fading based on this notion alone. Beyond this, Cooper has an insane split based on defenses bringing 5+. Cooper sees a whopping 71% target share when blitzed, yet only 34% when NOT Blitzed. The Bengals bring a blitz 6% points less than the league average, so we may not see that ridiculous target share. Similarly, but at a lower level, Cooper “prefers” Zone Coverage, and the Bengals run zone 4% points less than the league average.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)

Beyond the QB issues facing Aiyuk, he’s seen a 57% target share vs. Man (40% vs. zone). Given the Bucs show man coverage is 10 percentage points less than the league average, we have a marginal schematic disadvantage. Blend that with our base model disliking his CB matchup based on 41% of his snaps going up against CB Jamel Dean, and Aiyuk is looking like a good fade for the week. Dean sports 73 inches and a 4.3 40, and at 72 inches and 4.5 40, Aiyuk is both smaller and slower than his main expected counterpart.

We hope the data helps you towards a playoff spot this weekend. Good luck, and see you in Week 15!

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WR vs. CB Matchups & Advice: Week 14 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Week 13 Results

Season Scored Card

Week 13 Results

Season Scored Card

Week 14 WR vs. CB Model Scorecard

Legend

Secondary/Bonus Chart

WR Matchups to Target in Week 14

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