Saturday was jam-packed with NFL games. Fortunately, there are also three on Christmas. The fireworks will likely jumpstart the slate before a pair of less exciting contests. Still, gamers will have to fade a few top-shelf options, and this piece will help readers sift through the choices.
Week 16 Matchups
Game: Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: MIA -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 50.0 Points
Packers Analysis: Green Bay's offense has come to life lately. According to Pro-Football-Reference, since Week 10, they've scored 31, 17, 33, 28 and 24 points and had more than 340 yards on offense four times. Aaron Rodgers hasn't played like the back-to-back NFL MVP he is, but he's played respectably in his last handful of games.
The Dolphins might coax a vintage game out of Rodgers on Sunday. Miami has feasted on pathetic quarterbacks and gotten torched by capable signal-callers. For instance, Justin Herbert completed 39 of 51 passes for 367 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 14, and Josh Allen completed 25 of 40 passes for 304 yards and four touchdowns against Miami in Week 15. Armed with some explosive playmakers, Rodgers can further Miami's woes when defending the pass. The optimizer projects Rodgers as the QB2 and for the QB1 value score (QB1V) at both DFS providers on Sunday's main slate.
Green Bay's turnaround on offense coincided with Christian Watson's emergence. The athletically-gifted wide receiver has been white-hot. According to numberFire, Watson had a 22.1% Target Share, 19 receptions 359 receiving yards, 485 Air Yards, seven receiving touchdowns, two rushes, 49 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown in his last five games. Moreover, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Watson had 2.60 Y/RR and a 16.7-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT). Watson is an explosive play waiting to happen and projects as the WR5, with the WR1V at DK.
Romeo Doubs is a fun contrarian pick. Sadly, he ran only 10 routes in Week 15 in his return from a multi-week injury, ranking fourth among Green Bay's wideouts in routes. Yet, Rodgers force-fed Doubs five targets, and he secured all of them for a team-high 55 receiving yards. Perhaps, Doubs will be further unleashed this week after shaking the rust off last week.
Green Bay's running game has been the focal point lately, allowing Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to provide fantasy gamers with value. In the Packers' previous five games, Jones had 491 scrimmage yards, 23 targets, 20 receptions and three touchdowns (one rushing and two receiving). Meanwhile, during those contests, Dillon had 366 scrimmage yards, 11 targets, 10 receptions, and four touchdowns (all rushing).
Jones is the superior receiver, but Dillon is capable. Both can benefit from facing the Dolphins. Running backs have averaged the ninth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards per game against Miami this season. The one-two punch can also rough up the Dolphins on the ground.
According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are second in Adjusted Line Yards (4.88). And, of course, Jones and Dillon are quality running backs. According to PFF, Jones is 15th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.27 YCO/A), fifth in missed tackles forced (49) and tied for eighth in 10-plus-yard rushes (26) among 61 running backs who've attempted at least 50 rushes this year. Jones is projected as the RB1 on this slate.
Dillon hasn't equaled Jones' efficiency. However, he's a bulldozer back who might benefit from having relatively fresh legs this time of the year after splitting work with Jones throughout the season. Josh Norris and Hayden Winks recently pointed out Dillon's rushing split by month on The Underdog Football Show. Per Pro-Football-Reference, Dillon has averaged 50.6 rushing yards per game at 4.94 yards per carry in eight games in December in his career. Norris and Winks didn't suggest the split is predictive. However, it makes theoretical sense for a defense to struggle with a monstrous beast of a runner like Dillon this late in the season. The third-year running back might also have a slight edge around the goal line over Jones since Dillon had four rushes inside the 10-yard line and Jones had three since Week 10.
Dolphins Analysis: Jaylen Waddle scored a long touchdown against the Bills last week. However, Tyreek Hill has raced past him for the top pass-catcher honor on the Dolphins, and the margin is wide. Hill has reached double-digit targets in his last three games and nine times this year. Hill has also scored a touchdown in three straight and five of his last six.
Hill has been a monster this year. According to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he's second in Target Share (32.4%) and first in Intended Air Yards (1,888). Additionally, per PFF, Hill is first in Yards per Route Run (3.47) out of 71 wide receivers targeted at least 50 times this season. He's parlayed his jaw-dropping advanced metrics into superb box-score numbers. Hill is fourth in receptions per game (7.8), second in receiving yards per game (109.2) and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (seven). As a result, Hill is matchup-proof and projects as the WR1, has the WR2V at DK and the WR1V at FD.
Raheem Mostert faceplanted in a juicy matchup in Week 14 before rebounding last week. The speedy veteran running back gashed the Bills for 136 rushing yards on 17 attempts and secured one reception on two targets for 20 receiving yards.
Jeff Wilson's status for this week is up in the air. Mostert's floor and ceiling are elevated if Wilson's out. However, Mostert would still be an attractive pick in a tasty matchup even if Wilson returns from his one-game absence with a hip injury. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are 29th in rush defense DVOA since Week 9. Additionally, per The 33rd Team and data from SIS, running backs have averaged the sixth-most rushing yards per game (120.3), had 4.8 yards per carry and scored six rushing touchdowns against the Packers since Week 9.
Game: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: DEN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 36.5 Points
Broncos Analysis: Jerry Jeudy is in a groove. He's had at least four receptions and 65 receiving yards in his last three games. Jeudy also had the hat trick for receiving touchdowns in Week 14. The third-year wideout was previously hitting his stride before injuring his ankle in Week 10. Excluding the game when he injured his ankle, Jeudy had a 22.7% Target Share, 42 receptions, 533 receiving yards, 609 Air Yards, 2.04 Y/RR and five receiving touchdowns in his last eight games. So, Jeudy's played well enough to merit consideration in the mid-salaried wideouts on this three-game slate.
Denver's defense is also a good DFS pick. They're projected as the DST1 and have a soft matchup against the Baker Mayfield-led and injury-depleted Rams. The Broncos have played elite defense, too. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they've allowed the fifth-fewest yards per play (4.9), tied for the 10th-most turnovers forced (19), tied for the 13th-most sacks (35) and have allowed the third-fewest points per game (18.1) this year.
Rams Analysis: It's not unreasonable to fade LA's pitiful offense. Yet, Tutu Atwell is an intriguing punt. The diminutive, speedy second-year wideout had a 23.2% Target Share, six receptions 60 receiving yards 125 Air Yards and three rush attempts, albeit for negative-nine yards, in the last two weeks. Sean McVay and Mayfield have tried to get the ball into his hands.
The matchup isn't too shabby for Atwell, either. In the previous two weeks, he led the Rams in slot snaps (31). Meanwhile, according to The 33rd Team, the Broncos have coughed up the 11th-most DK points per game and the 12th-most FD points per game to slot receivers since Week 9. As a result, Atwell is tied for the WR3V at DK.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: TB -7.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: Tom Brady's having a forgettable season. Still, he's averaged 278.4 passing yards per game this year. Brady has also tossed multiple touchdowns in four of his last five games. Frankly, Brady can carve up Arizona's lousy defense, even in a down year. The Cardinals are 26th in pass defense DVOA since Week 9. Arizona has also allowed the 10th-most passing yards per game (237.6) and tied for the second-most touchdown passes allowed (25) this season.
Chris Godwin is Brady's go-to target and the most exciting pass-catcher on the Bucs. He's emerged as Brady's preferred option since the team's bye in Week 11. In Tampa Bay's last four games, Godwin has led the Bucs in Target Share (21.9%), receptions (33) and receiving yards (310) and caught two touchdowns. Godwin is the WR2 at both sites, tied for the WR3V at DK and has the WR4V at FD.
Mike Evans has underwhelmed during the last four weeks, reeling in 15 receptions for 217 scoreless yards. However, he's also led the Bucs in Air Yards (401). Evans is due for a change in fortune. Winks highlighted him as a positive regression candidate in his weekly Fantasy Usage Model article. Maybe, the fantasy gods will smile upon Evans this week and begin the regression process.
Julio Jones was out last week, and Russell Gage stepped up in Jones' absence. Gage was third on the Bucs in routes (31) and receiving yards (59), tied for first in receptions (eight), first in targets (12) and had two receiving touchdowns in Week 15. Jones's status for this week remains to be seen, but Gage's effort might earn him a leg up on Jones and his bum wheel.
The tight end landscape is wretched on this slate. Cameron Brate is a defensible matchup and salary-driven suggestion. He ran one more route than Cade Otton last week. The veteran also had four targets, two receptions and 25 receiving yards versus just one, one and 20 for Otton. As for the matchup, tight ends have killed the Cardinals, averaging the most receptions per game (6.5) and receiving yards per game (67.4) and tying for the most touchdown receptions (10) against them.
Tampa Bay's defense has been an occasional bright spot in a bleak season for the Bucs. They've forced only 13 turnovers but have the sixth-most sacks (40) this season. They also have a dreamy matchup against Arizona's third-string quarterback, Trace McSorley. The 2019 sixth-round pick isn't a threat to NFL defenses. He's completed only 46.2% of his 39 pass attempts in his career, and he's tossed three interceptions on them. The Bucs should tee off on him.
Cardinals Analysis: The lights flickered for Trey McBride in his last two games. The rookie tight end has run 62 routes versus only nine for Maxx Williams and nine for Stephen Anderson since Week 14, and McBride's had his two best games of his young career in the past two games. McBride set new personal bests last week for receptions (four) and receiving yards (55).
They weren't celebration-worthy stats, but they were good enough to earn consideration on this three-game slate. Further, McBride had three targets, two receptions, 43 receiving yards and 26 Air Yards on McSorley's pass attempts last week. Do the two have rapport? Will McSorley frequently throw McBride short targets to avoid getting destroyed by Tampa Bay's blitz-heavy defense? Maybe. Regardless, the opportunity cost for punting at tight end is low, and McBride's salary is more palatable than the pricier options with unexciting production.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
