The Jaguars and Jets are two blossoming AFC clubs and square off in what the betting info projects as a close contest to jump-start Week 16. Nevertheless, the Jaguars are more well-represented for the suggested players on the showdown slate. But, of course, the Jets have some exciting options, too.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets
Jaguars Analysis: Trevor Lawrence has figured it out in his second season, and Doug Pederson has trusted him to orchestrate a pass-first offense. According to numberFire, since Week 12, the Jags have attempted 85 passes and 42 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Lawrence is their highest-graded passer among quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 60 times since Week 12 and had the second-most big-time throws (12). The second-year quarterback has completed 67.8% of his passes and had 1,186 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and only one interception in his previous four games. In addition, Lawrence passed for more than 300 yards in three of those games.
Sadly, he has a tricky matchup. According to Football Outsiders, the Jets are second in rush defense DVOA since Week 9. Further, per Pro-Football-Reference, Gang Green has allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (193.9) this season. Still, Lawrence is playing exceptionally and merits usage on the showdown slate.
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are Lawrence's most reliable, highest-ceiling passing game options. Yet, the sledding is tough for them this week. First, the Jets have suffocated deep passes. Per numberFire, they've allowed only four completions on 20 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 Air Yards since Week 9. Second, according to Football Outsiders, they've held No. 1 wideouts to the fewest receiving yards per game (48.6) and yielded the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (37.3) to No. 2 wideouts. And, per Pro-Football-Reference, New York is tied for the fifth-fewest receiving touchdowns permitted (10) to wide receivers this year.
Predictably, the Jets have dominated perimeter and slot wideouts. According to The 33rd Team and information from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), the Jets have allowed the fifth-fewest DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9, and they've coughed up the third-fewest DK and FD points per game to slot receivers.
Despite the tough matchup, Kirk and Jones have been stalwarts in Jacksonville's high-powered passing attack. Since Week 12, Kirk has had a 21.9% Target Share, 21.1% target per route run rate, 21 receptions, 287 receiving yards, 322 Air Yards and 1.78 Y/RR. Meanwhile, Jones had a 26.5% Target Share, a 26.3% target per route run rate, 27 receptions, 347 receiving yards, 424 Air Yards, 2.22 Y/RR and four touchdowns during that four-game stretch. So, Kirk and Jones have the requisite volume and talented quarterback needed to overcome a challenging matchup. I slightly prefer Kirk when picking between the two.
Evan Engram is also an enticing member of Jacksonville's passing attack. In his last four games, he's had a 21.3% Target Share, 23.2% target per route run rate, 25 receptions, 258 receiving yards, 1.82 Y/RR and three touchdowns. Moreover, Engram has a more palatable matchup. Tight ends have averaged the 12th-most receiving yards per game (53.2) and have the seventh-most receptions (71) against the Jets this season.
Jamal Agnew is an excellent punt. The Jags have used him as a gadget player and pumped him touches. Since Week 12, Agnew's been targeted on a jaw-dropping 40.0% of his 30 routes and had 10 receptions, 85 receiving yards, 2.83 Y/RR, one receiving touchdown, five rushes and 63 rushing yards. The shifty returner is an offensive weapon who's made the most of his opportunities on the field.
Travis Etienne got back on track last week. The 2021 first-round pick snapped a three-game streak of failing to best 70 scrimmage yards by rushing for 103 and reeling in two receptions for 24 yards against the Cowboys. The explosive back is a feature back who cedes minimal work to his backups. For example, since Week 13, Etienne has run 76 routes versus only 20 for JaMychal Hasty. Etienne has also handled 22 rushes versus only four for Hasty in neutral game scripts in the last three weeks.
Etienne's home-run speed makes him a threat to rip off chunk runs. He also has a favorable matchup through the air. Running backs have averaged the 12th-most receiving yards per game (38.9) and had the 13th-most receptions (72) against the Jets this season. So, Etienne's volume and explosiveness are reasons to invest in him on this showdown slate.
Jets Analysis: Zach Wilson is starting again this week. The second-year quarterback made ample mistakes last week. However, Wilson had a fantasy-friendly showing by passing for 317 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.
Interestingly, Mike LaFleur didn't coddle him as he did before Wilson was benched. Instead, the Jets attempted 35 passes and 19 rushes by non-quarterbacks in a neutral game script last week. Despite Mike White's injury, the continued willingness to pass the ball was good for Wilson's fantasy outlook. He's not a must-use player on this slate, though.
The pass-heavy offense is stellar for New York's pass-catching options. Garrett Wilson had nine targets, four receptions, 98 receiving yards and 166 Air Yards last week. As a result, he's a stellar choice.
Elijah Moore was also heavily involved in the offense, parlaying seven targets and 70 Air Yards into four receptions for 51 receiving yards. Sadly, Corey Davis was out last week. He's trending toward a return and will compete for targets with Wilson and Moore. Still, the trio should be on the field together, with Braxton Berrios mixing in occasionally.
Davis flashed chemistry with Wilson last year and earlier this season. Namely, Davis had five receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown on six targets in Week 4. Thus, he's a defensible pick.
Still, Wilson and Moore are the most exciting selections. First, the Jaguars are lousy at defending the pass. They're 30th in pass defense DVOA since Week 9. Jacksonville has also allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (252.6) and is tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns allowed (24) this season. Receivers have found the end zone regularly against the Jaguars this year, tying for the second-most receiving touchdowns (18) against them.
Wilson is matchup-proof. However, Moore has the easier matchup. The Jaguars have surrendered the eighth-fewest DK and the ninth-fewest FD points to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9. Conversely, slot wideouts have flamed them for the most DK and FD points. Thus, Moore is a screaming value at his salary.
The matchup is also outstanding for running backs and tight ends in the passing game. However, I suggest fading New York's running backs and tight ends. Unfortunately, Wilson has rarely utilized his running backs in the passing attack, and Tyler Conklin and C.J. Uzomah cannibalize each other's opportunities.
Final Thoughts: Lawrence is my favorite captain/MVP. Etienne is my second-favorite captain/MVP, and Moore is a fun contrarian choice. Jacksonville-leaning or balanced lineups are my preferred lineup constructions.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
