We’ve made it through 15 weeks of the 2022 NFL season and are staring down a massive Week 16 slate. It’s the holiday season, meaning that there’s plenty of opportunity for giving and receiving. Let’s receive money from DraftKings and FanDuel by constructing the best possible DFS lineups ahead of jam-packed Christmas Eve and Christmas Day slates. What you opt to do with these winnings is your choice. Whether it’s buying last-minute gifts for family and friends, or treating yourself to something special, the sportsbooks are going to be in a tough spot after we wrap up the weekend.
Week 15 had a ton of production per usual, which meant a few of my recommended chalky plays like Jalen Hurts (QB – Eagles), CeeDee Lamb (WR – Cowboys), and Travis Kelce (TE – Chiefs) all netted enough points to elevate your DFS lineups into the green. Ja’Marr Chase (WR – Bengals) and Keenan Allen (WR – Chargers) finished as WR14 and WR19 respectively, while Tony Pollard (RB – Cowboys) (RB19), Isiah Pacheco (RB – Chiefs) (RB37), and Miles Sanders (RB – Eagles) (RB59) all fell below expected projections in good matchups. Joe Burrow (QB – Bengals) didn’t throw for a ton of yards but took advantage of Tampa Bay’s miscues, winding up with four passing touchdowns and finishing as the QB6, while Trevor Lawrence (QB – Jaguars) mounted an incredible comeback to beat Dallas in overtime, logging 27.82 points on FanDuel to wind up the QB5.
The weather is going to play an enormous factor in the Week 16 slate, as wind gusts, snow, and bone-chilling temperatures will combine to create difficult conditions for players to navigate and overcome. This has already shown up in the point total lines, with many of them hovering well below 40 total points. The running game could be leaned on heavily, even on pass-centric offenses, while D/ST will potentially have some massive production in DFS by forcing turnovers and holding teams to relatively few yards on offense. Let’s jump right into my top recommended players to target and insert into DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel ahead of an 11-game slate on Saturday and a three-game slate on Sunday during Christmas.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Justin Fields (QB – Bears): $7,500
It may have taken a while for the Justin Fields experience to get going, but the second-year quarterback is now a fixture in most DFS lineups. Chicago is a run-centric offense with limited wide receiving talent, using Fields as a ball carrier by design and with improvisation as well. Fields has delivered a 20-point floor on DraftKings for seven consecutive games but will face a Buffalo defense designed to stop the run. However, the Bills aren’t a bottom-five matchup for DFS quarterbacks this season, and they just gave up nearly 188 rushing yards to Miami in Week 15. The windy conditions will force Chicago to keep the ball on the ground, with Fields generating huge plays to keep Chicago competitive despite limited personnel.
Daniel Jones (QB – Giants): $5,600
Minnesota delivers a plus-matchup for Daniel Jones in Week 16. The Giants find themselves very much in the hunt for a Wild Card seed in the NFC with an 8-5-1 record. This will be one of the few games unaffected by bad weather due to being played in a dome, so Jones has a lot of appeal at a huge discount on DraftKings facing a top-five quarterback matchup. Darius Slayton (WR 0 Giants), Isaiah Hodgins (WR – Giants), Daniel Bellinger (TE – Giants), and Saquon Barkley (RB – Giants) are enough talent to get by, so Jones’ rushing upside seals the deal on him being a plus-value in a juicy matchup on the road.
Honorable Mention: Geno Smith (QB – Seahawks) ($5,800) has lost consecutive games as Seattle’s signal caller but he’s still shown grit through adversity. Virtually no one believed in Smith’s upside this past offseason, but he’s proved his doubters wrong by keeping Seattle alive in the NFC playoff hunt. Kansas City has an elite offense but a lackluster defense, specifically against the pass, so Smith has upside in a top-four matchup against the Chiefs’ vulnerable secondary on the road in Week 16.
FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Joe Burrow (QB – Bengals): $8,100
Cincinnati didn’t have to do too much to get a big road win in Week 15, as Tampa Bay’s self-inflicted mistakes allowed the Bengals to consistently take over in good field position. Still, Joe Burrow threw 200 yards and four touchdowns. Burrow has another difficult road opponent against a desperate New England defense that should’ve avoided a last-second disaster in its loss to Las Vegas in Week 15. The Patriots’ strength is its run defense though, so we could see Burrow link up with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (WR – Bengals) to go over 20 FD points for the third time in four games.
Deshaun Watson (QB – Browns): $6,800
We’re getting good value with Deshaun Watson at under $7,000 on FanDuel. The weather is going to be gusty and freezing in Cleveland on Saturday afternoon, so expect a lot of designed run plays for Watson, who has handled at least six carries in all three of his starts. New Orleans is not accustomed to playing in cold weather, and its defense could easily get worn down by a run-heavy combination of Nick Chubb (RB – Browns) and Watson. He’ll still make a few big throws to Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – Browns) and Amari Cooper (WR – Browns), so treat Watson as a value with a solid floor and decent upside in Week 16.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Huntley (QB – Ravens) ($6,700) is expected to play in Week 16 against Atlanta, which is a top-ten quarterback matchup in DFS this season. Baltimore has struggled to score consistently with Lamar Jackson (QB – Ravens) out with a knee injury, but Huntley could hit 40 rushing yards and a touchdown as he did against Denver a couple of weeks ago.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Derrick Henry (RB – Titans): $8,600
We’ve seen how historically dominant Derrick Henry plays against Houston’s run defense. He has logged four consecutive games against the Texans with over 200 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in this recent stretch against his AFC South rival, so without Ryan Tannehill (QB – Titans) in the picture, the Titans may wind up feeding Henry 40 touches in Week 16. He’s chalky and it’s a risk considering how tight Houston’s run defense has played lately, but the upside is too tempting to ignore, even at a heightened $8,600 salary.
Dalvin Cook (RB – Vikings): $7,200
For the first time in five games, Dalvin Cook broke the 20-point threshold on DraftKings in a historic comeback win over Indianapolis. Cook handled roughly 20 touches per game and will face a Giants run defense that has been getting gashed, allowing at least 150 rushing yards in five consecutive games. Kirk Cousins (QB – Vikings) may be under duress in the pocket and struggle against the Giants’ man coverage, so Cook is a sneaky value with a monstrous ceiling at home in ideal conditions in a plus-matchup.
Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara (RB – Saints) ($6,800) has been disappointing this season but this can be said of any New Orleans Saints skilled player, excluding rookie wideout Chris Olave (WR – Saints). Kamara has been held under 13 DK points in six consecutive games but I’m playing the matchup and the weather that he gets on the road in Cleveland during Week 16. Kamara handled 21 carries against Atlanta in Week 15, so against a top-three running back matchup, he’s an intriguing FLEX play on DraftKings.
FanDuel
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – Patriots): $8,300
Yes, Rhamondre Stevenson goes from a top-ten matchup to a bottom-ten matchup in Week 16, but he showed no signs of his ankle injury sustained against Arizona in Week 14. New England’s offense is stale and one-dimensional, funneling touches to Stevenson when he’s fully healthy. Cincinnati is a tough run defense but they have surrendered over 100 rushing yards in two of its past five games. It’s risky due to the salary, but Stevenson is the majority of New England’s offense, so he’s worth the investment in Week 16.
Ezekiel Elliot (RB – Cowboys): $7,400
Dallas relies on a two-headed backfield that still cedes 15-18 touches to seventh-year running back Ezekiel Elliot. He’s slightly cheaper than his counterpart, Tony Pollard, and has scored at least one touchdown in seven straight games. The Cowboys will face an Eagles run defense that is vulnerable, ranking 16th, so with its identity remaining run-centric, Elliot is a decent value and a high-floor play in FanDuel lineups in Week 16.
Honorable Mention: Jerick McKinnon (RB – Chiefs) ($7,300) has proven that he’s no longer an afterthought or a side project in Andy Reid’s offense. The versatile veteran has scored four touchdowns in his past two games, including a walk-off run against Houston to seal a road win in Week 15 against Houston. He’ll get another soft matchup against Seattle’s 31st-ranked run defense on Saturday, so he should be heavily considered in DFS lineups of all shapes and sizes.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – Lions): $7,800
Amon-Ra St. Brown carries a high floor and high ceiling, making him an ideal player to target in DFS most weeks. A road trip in Carolina is no different, as the Panthers rank as the 10th-best wide receiver matchup on DraftKings this season. You just need to know that a 15-point outcome is just as feasible as a 30-point finish but at under $8,0oo, he’s a solid investment since St. Brown is such a focal point of the Lions’ offense.
Darius Slayton (WR – Giants): $5,200
Minnesota is a top-three matchup for fantasy wide receivers, so Darius Slayton becomes a screaming value at $5,200 on DraftKings. Slayton has a relatively low floor, but he’s scored 13 and 15 DK points in two of his past five games. Daniel Jones was already recommended and Slayton has seen at least six targets in three of the past four games, so he makes for a nice salary-saving prospect in the Week 16 slate.
Honorable Mention: K.J. Osborn (WR – Vikings) ($4,500) likely won’t re-produce his career-high production from Week 15 but he is trusted by Kirk Cousins. Justin Jefferson (WR – Vikings) will be the Giants’ main priority in Week 16, so Osborn could hit double-digit points for the fourth time this season. He’s inexpensive and has a big ceiling, making Osborn a solid investment.
FanDuel
D.K. Metcalf (WR – Seahawks): $8,000
The loss of Tyler Lockett (WR – Seahawks) opens up an even bigger target share for D.K. Metcalf in Week 16. Kansas City is a top-five matchup for fantasy wide receivers this season while performing much better against the run. The Seahawks are still fighting for their playoff lives, while the Chiefs could wind up playing a bit more conservatively due to their position in the AFC. Metcalf has double-digit finishes on FanDuel in six of his past seven games, so while the salary is heightened due to less competition for targets in a plus-matchup, the Seahawks’ star wideout remains a high-floor, high-ceiling prospect in Week 16.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – 49ers): $6,800
Week 15 was extremely disappointing for Brandon Aiyuk’s upside. The absence of Deebo Samuel (WR – 49ers) had a lot of pundits and analysts investing in Aiyuk, only for him to finish the game with two receptions for 19 yards on four targets. Aiyuk has been big-play dependent for much of the season, but he gets a solid matchup against a middle-of-the-pack Washington secondary at home on Saturday. At under $7,000 on FanDuel, Aiyuk is a boom-or-bust player with the potential to secure his third double-digit finish in the past six games.
Honorable Mention: Isaiah Hodgins (WR – Giants) ($5,800) is a dart throw but at under $6,000 and in a top-three wide receiver matchup, the Giants’ second-year wideout gains more appeal. He’s scored two touchdowns in his past three games, so while the floor is low and the ceiling isn’t particularly high, it will only take one or two receptions to turn Hodgins into a value.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Travis Kelce (TE – Chiefs): $8,000
Travis Kelce is as chalky as it gets but he will be facing Seattle’s pass defense, which is the second-best tight-end matchup. Kelce just ripped off ten receptions for 105 yards on ten targets against Houston, which is a much better pass defense. He’ll look to produce his ninth 20-point outing on DraftKings on Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium in a top-tier matchup. He’s worth every penny, but he’s three times as expensive as other tight-end prospects, so spend accordingly.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Akins (TE – Texans) ($2,900) has caught two touchdowns in his past four games and benefits from the return of Davis Mills (QB – Texans) under center. Houston will play the Titans on the road Saturday, which is allowing the sixth-most points to Akins’ position, so he’s a cheap salary-saver with a decent floor.
FanDuel
Mark Andrews (TE – Ravens): $6,400
The loss of Devin Duvernay (WR – Ravens) is going to force Tyler Huntley to look Mark Andrews’ way throughout the matchup against Atlanta’s porous pass defense. The Falcons are the fourth-best matchup for fantasy tight ends and Andrews, despite seemingly playing through an injury, has a monster upside that can be unleashed on any given day. He’s not priced nearly as high as Kelce, so although it’s a big risk, I don’t mind investing in Andrews’ ceiling with limited pass catchers in a good matchup.
Honorable Mention: Chig Okonkwo (TE – Titans) ($5,400) will be catching passes from Malik Willis (QB – Titans) instead of Ryan Tannehill, who is done for the season with two ankle injuries. The rookie tight end has begun to heat up and deliver big chunk plays in the Titans’ limited passing attack, but Willis is a bad quarterback, so investing in Okonkwo certainly has its downside. The Titans will find a way to get him the ball enough to be a good value at $5,400 on FanDuel.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
49ers D/ST: $3,900
Washington is not a dynamic offense by any means and they’ll face the league’s best defense on the road in Week 16. The Commanders try to establish the run to set up the pass, but against the top-ranked run defense, Taylor Heinicke (QB – Commanders) will be put in a tough position that could result in multiple turnovers and a low-scoring output.
Honorable Mention: Bengals D/ST ($3,400) has been playing very well all season and is a massive reason for the Bengals’ current six-game win streak. New England’s offense is not intimidating and sputters frequently, so play the matchup and invest in the defense that gets it done no matter the weather or opponent.
FanDuel
Ravens D/ST: $4,900
Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have built a stout defensive front seven, most notably landing Roquan Smith (LB – Ravens) at the trade deadline, which has made a huge impact. Teams struggle to run on the Ravens, but its secondary remains vulnerable. Fortunately, they’ll face rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder (QB – Falcons) in his first career road game, who finished with under 100 passing yards against the Saints in Week 15. Play the Ravens D/ST and thank me later.
Honorable Mention: Lions D/ST ($3,900) has become a talented unit under head coach Dan Campbell. Detroit’s run defense is its strength, holding Minnesota and the New York Jets to a combined 72 rushing yards in its past two games, so they should be up for the task against a run-centric Carolina offense with Sam Darnold (QB – Panthers) under center in Week 16.
