Week 15 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Welcome to Week 15, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 15 QB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Matt Ryan: Ryan hasn’t managed a QB1 performance since Week 10, but this is a perfect opportunity to break his current streak of mediocrity. Overall he’s the QB24 in fantasy points per game, sitting at 34th in fantasy points per dropback and QB19 in expected fantasy points per game. He’s still extremely accurate, ranking sixth in true completion rate, fifth in completion rate from a clean pocket, and second in deep ball completion rate. The problem is he’s been too frightened to push the ball downfield, as he ranks 32nd in deep ball attempts and 35th in air yards per attempt. Ryan’s propensity to take the short completions could play to his advantage this week. Minnesota is 29th in DVOA against short passing, allowing the third-most YAC. Since Week 10, they are 28th in success rate per dropback and 28th in EPA per dropback. Overall this season, they have given up the most passing yards in the NFL and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Ryan is a surprisingly strong QB2 this week with QB1 upside.

Kirk Cousins: Cousins is the QB16 this season, with seven QB1 performances under his belt. Cousins has been playing better as the season has rolled along. He’s ninth in PFF passing grade, 11th in adjusted completion rate, and sixth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Colts have been a tough draw for fantasy quarterbacks. Since Week 10, they are 13th in success rate per dropback and 13th in EPA per dropback allowed. Overall this season, they are 12th in yards per attempt and 14th in passing touchdown rate allowed. Cousins is a QB2 this week, as Minnesota could lean on their ground game to get another win.

Deshaun Watson: Watson didn’t look like he was fully back last week, but his play improved. He was 20th in yards per attempt, tenth in adjusted completion rate, and 13th in aDOT as the QB14 in fantasy. Watson has added some equity with his legs weekly, averaging 6.5 rushing attempts and 27 yards on the ground. This week, Watson is a dark horse QB1 facing a formidable Ravens’ pass defense. Baltimore is a strong defense, but not insurmountable. Since Week 10, they are 18th in success rate per dropback, 19th in passing yards per game, and 21st in explosive pass rate allowed. Watson should also have success with play-action passing against this secondary. Since his return, Watson is 12th in play-action dropbacks, tenth in play-action yards per attempt, and has the tenth-highest completion rate difference on play-action throws. Baltimore has yielded the fourth-highest completion rate when defending play-action passes.

Tua Tagovailoa: Last week, the Dolphins’ passing attack struggled, with Tagovailoa posting a 35.7% completion rate and 5.1 yards per attempt. The Chargers consistently took away the middle of the field for Miami, with their corners getting inside leverage on the Dolphins’ receivers. Tagovailoa has peppered the middle of the field, with 41.7% of his passing attempts coming 20 yards or less downfield and in between the numbers. After weeks of coasting and crushing opposing secondaries, we now see if Miami can counterpunch. Despite last week’s horrendous game, Tagovailoa remains first in PFF passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and second in passer rating (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 10, the Bills’ pass defense has displayed that they, too, can be beaten. Since then, they are 19th in success rate per dropback, 29th in passing yards per game, and 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed. Tagovailoa remains a QB1.

Desmond Ridder: Ridder gets the nod in Week 15, assuming the Falcons’ starting job. His preseason performance didn’t exactly inspire confidence. He was 31st in PFF passing grade, 13th in yards per attempt, 57th in adjusted completion rate, and he had the seventh-highest turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 20 dropbacks). Ridder is a low-end QB2 in a run-first offense staring down a strong Saints’ secondary. Since Week 10, New Orleans is eighth in success rate per dropback, 13th in passing yards per game, and third in explosive pass rate allowed.

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the king of the castle. The QB1 in fantasy. It’s good to be the king. Hurts is second in fantasy points per dropback, and the QB2 in expected fantasy points per game. He continues to excel as a passer, ranking fifth in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The passing prowess is on top of ranking first in rushing touchdowns, third in rushing yards per game, and first in red zone carries per game. Hurts is the QB1 overall this week facing a defense that he should shred. Since Week 10, Chicago has been 31st in success rate per dropback, 32nd in EPA per drop back, and 31st in yards per attempt.

Jared Goff: Early season Goff has returned as his weapons have gotten healthier. Goff has now rattled off back-to-back QB4 finishes with at least 330 passing yards and multiple touchdowns. Goff now has three top-eight weeks on his 2022 resume. Goff is ninth in yards per attempt, eighth in passing yards, and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns. Goff has his work cut out for him the week. Since Week 10, the Jets have been fourth in success rate per dropback, third in passing yards per game, and fifth in EPA per dropback. Goff is a borderline QB1.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Week 15 WR Start/Sit Grades

Notes

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has been dominant down the stretch. He has top-18 wide receiver finishes in four of his last six games. He’s the WR10 in fantasy with a 29.1% target share (eighth-best) and 35.1% air-yard share (13th). Lamb is 11th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. He is ninth in fantasy points per route run. Lamb is a WR1 that will run about 66% of his routes against Tre Herndon (66.7% catch rate, 133.0 passer rating). Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster bounced back last week with a WR6 finish playing 80% of the snaps and finishing with 11 targets, nine grabs, and 74 receiving yards (one touchdown). Smith-Schuster is the WR28 in fantasy with an 18.3% target share (6.8 targets per game) and 13 red zone targets (12th). Six of them have come across his last six games played. Smith-Schuster is 31st in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Houston deploys their starting corners in zone coverage on 65-73% of their snaps. Smith-Schuster should eat their zone defense alive. He’s seen 56% of his target volume against zone, ranking 15th in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum ten zone targets). Smith-Schuster will run about 60% of his routes against Desmond King (73.7% catch rate, 94.0 passer rating) and Tremon Smith (career: 65.5% catch rate, 72.2 passer rating). Smith-Schuster is a WR2.

Darius Slayton: Since Week 7, Slayton has a 20.7% target share (6.1 targets per game), averaging 71.4 receiving yards per game. In those seven games, he has garnered a 39.5% air-yard share with 2.39 yards per route run. Last time against the Washington secondary, he secured six of his eight targets for 90 receiving yards and a WR22 finish for the week. Slayton has finished as a WR3 or higher in five of his last seven games. He still has not seen a red zone target since Week 6. Slayton is a WR3/4 that will run about 67% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (60% catch rate, 91.3 passer rating) and Christian Holmes (100% catch rate, 158.3 passer rating, six targets).

Terry McLaurin: With Heinicke as his quarterback, McLaurin has a 30.8% target share, 27.3% end zone target share, and 51.1% air-yard share. He’s averaged 82.6 receiving yards per game with a 30% target per route run rate. Since Week 7, he’s fifth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). In their last meeting, McLaurin torched this secondary with eight grabs and 105 receiving yards (WR7). Since Week 12, the Giants outside corners have operated in man coverage on 50-57% of their coverage snaps. With Heinicke as his quarterback, McLaurin is 13th in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets). McLaurin is a WR2 that will run about 72% of his routes against Fabian Moreau (56.1% catch rate, 95.3 passer rating) and Nick McCloud (68% catch rate, 120.1 passer rating).

Tutu Atwell: Last week, Atwell managed a 63.4% route participation rate with a 25.7% target share and 1.92 yards per route run. Among all wide receivers with at least 20 targets, he is eighth in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run. Atwell has been a big play threat anytime he touches the ball. Atwell will run about 62% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (75% catch rate, 79.7 passer rating) as a deep league flex.

Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk has a 21.3% target share this season while leading the team in receiving touchdowns (seven) and air yard share (30.2%). He’s been an elite talent this season, ranking 19th in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Per ESPN analytics, he’s seventh in open rate among wideouts, with at least 34 targets immediately behind Davante Adams. With Purdy under center, he has a 19.4% target share averaging six targets and 51.5 receiving yards. Aiyuk will get a target share bump with Samuel out of the lineup. Aiyuk is a WR2/3 that will run about 73% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (54.9% catch rate, 65.6 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (63.5% catch rate, 93.7 passer rating).

Tyler Lockett: Lockett is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s on pace for 1,172 receiving yards and ten receiving touchdowns, which would be the second-highest single-season receiving yardage of his career while tying his career high in touchdowns. Lockett has a 23.6% target share (23rd) and 32.5% air yard share (20th, minimum 50 targets). He’s 20th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). I know I keep harping on it, but the trend for Lockett bears fruit weekly. Does the team favor zone coverage in their defensive scheme? Ok, then Lockett eats week. The 49ers are another team that loves zone coverage, as their starting outside corners have operated in zone on 65-67.3% of their coverage snaps. Lockett is ninth in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run against zone (minimum ten zone targets). Lockett is a WR1 that will run about 56% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (59.7% catch rate, 87.1 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (68.9% catch rate, 85.1 passer rating).

Michael Pittman: Pittman has a 24.9% target share, 23.5% end zone target share, and 26.9% air yard share. Ryan’s reluctance to throw deep and his role have nerfed his weekly ceiling. Pittman’s 6.4 aDOT has crushed his upside as he’s basically Indy’s Diontae Johnson. A wide receiver who garners a ton of volume weekly but is crushed by shoddy quarterback play and low-calorie targets. Pittman hasn’t surpassed 80 receiving yards since Week 6. He’s surviving as the WR23 in fantasy on volume alone with the sixth-most targets among wide receivers. He’s only seen two deep targets this season and three red zone looks over his last nine games. Pittman is a WR3 in a glorious matchup. He’ll run about 75% of his routes against Patrick Peterson (61.8% catch rate, 74.3 passer rating) and Cameron Dantzler (79.2% catch rate, 125.7 passer rating).

Drake London: With Kyle Pitts out, London has seen an outstanding 33.3% target share (eight targets per game), 25% end zone target share, and 36.1% air yard share. In his last two games, he has a 35% target per route run rate with 2.7 yards per route run. Feed him volume, Atlanta. Do it. Please. Per ESPN analytics, London is 40th in open rate, immediately ahead of Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins. London has 12 deep targets (30th) and 12 red zone targets (17th). London is a WR3 with double-digit target upside this week.

Chris Olave: Olave is the WR19 in fantasy. He’s been a volume vacuum all year, ranking 17th in target share (25.8%), tenth in target per route run rate (28.8%), and fifth in air yard share (40.3%). He is third in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. Olave is a budding alpha wide receiver ranking 13th in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). A.J. Terrell has shadowed five times this season following receivers on 46-82% of their routes. Terrell has only once allowed more than 50 receiving yards in shadow coverage. It’s not definite he will shadow Olave. If Terrell doesn’t shadow, Olave will run about 61% of his routes against Terrell (56.9% catch rate, 115.0 passer rating) and Darren Hall (74.2% catch rate, 134.3 passer rating). Olave is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Week 15 RB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Miles Sanders: Sanders has another smash matchup incoming. After last week’s stellar performance, he’s the RB12 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.1 touches and 88.7 total yards. Sanders is seventh in red zone touches, 18th in weighted opportunity, and fifth in total touchdowns. He’s been electric this year, ranking tenth in evaded tackles, eighth in breakaway runs, and 15th in yards per touch. The Bears have hemorrhaged points to running backs all year. Since Week 10, they are 25th in rushing success rate, 26th in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 29th in explosive run rate allowed. Sanders is an RB1.

Jamaal Williams: Williams is the RB18 in fantasy, averaging 15.7 rushing attempts and 62 rushing yards. Williams’ fantasy value is founded on red zone usage and touchdowns. He’s second in red zone touches and first in total touchdowns (14). Last week Williams was held out of the end zone, which broke a four-game touchdown streak. With only one target in his last six games, Williams’ value resides in the early downs only. He remains an inefficient grinder back who is 50th in juke rate, 36th in evaded tackles, and 53rd in yards created per touch. Since Week 10, the Jets are third in rushing success rate but also 17th in rushing yards per game and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Williams is a touchdown-dependent RB3.

D’Andre Swift: After enjoying a more robust workload in Week 13, Swift disappointingly fell back to earth in Week 14. His snaps dropped to 36% as he handled nine touches with 39 total yards. Swift conceded early down and pass game work to Justin Jackson. This is the type of volume we should expect for Swift for the rest of the season, and anything above it should be a happy surprise. Swift played 31-34% of snaps in the previous three games averaging eight touches and 17.7 total yards. Despite his scaled-back responsibilities, he remains heavily involved in the red zone, so a touchdown is in his range of outcomes weekly. Swift faces a middle-of-the-road defense against running backs in the passing game. New York is 14th in yards per reception, 14th in receiving yards per game, and 21st in receptions allowed per game. Swift is a risky RB3.

Zonovan Knight: With Carter back in the lineup, Knight played 47% of the snaps with 19 touches and 77 total yards (one score) to finish as the RB13 for the week. Knight only had a 30% route run rate, but he led the team in rushing attempts and red zone opportunities. Knight has been explosive since being inserted into the running back rotation. He’s 16th in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway rate, and first in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). The Lions’ run defense has been improving rapidly. Since Week 10, they are 14th in rushing success rate, 11th in explosive run rate, fifth in yards per carry, and first in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Knight is a volume-based low-end RB2.

Najee Harris: Since Week 10, Harris has averaged 17.4 touches and 79.2 total yards as the RB16 in fantasy. He’s managed at least 18 touches in three of his last five games with four touchdowns. Over the last five weeks, Harris is 30th in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in missed tackles forced, and 23rd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Harris is a volume-based RB2. Since Week 10, Carolina is 13th in rushing success rate, 11th in rushing yards per game, and 19th in explosive run rate allowed.

Isiah Pacheco: Since Week 12, Pacheco has averaged 18.3 touches and 87 total yards. He has finished as a top-24 fantasy back in each of his last four games (RB23, RB16, RB15, RB17). Pacheco’s fantasy output has been greatly enhanced by the offense he finds himself in. He hasn’t been anything special from an efficiency standpoint. He’s 31st in yards after contact per attempt, 37th in breakaway rate, and 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Since Week 10, Houston has toughened up against the run, ranking sixth in rushing success rate, sixth in EPA per rush, and 13th in yards per carry. Pacheco remains a steady RB2.

Jerick McKinnon: Since Week 11, McKinnon has played at least 47% of the snaps in three of four games averaging 8.3 touches and 61.1 total yards. He’s been a top-20 fantasy back in three of his last five games. McKinnon’s recent touchdown output has been nice, but his three scores over the last two games are his first end zone dances since Week 2. His red zone usage since Week 12 doesn’t need to be dismissed, though, as he has almost equaled Pacheco in this category. McKinnon has been explosive when he’s had opportunities this season, ranking first in yards created per touch, 13th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per opportunity. McKinnon is an RB3 facing a defense that’s 15th in DVOA and 13th in yards per reception against receiving backs.

Dare Ogunbowale: Ogunbowale looks like the next back in the rotation if Pierce can’t go this week. He has received the most work behind Pierce since Week 12, but that doesn’t mean Burkhead won’t be involved. This could easily dissolve into an even split, with each player crushing the other’s fantasy value. Ogunbowale hasn’t been effective as a rusher this season, with 1.88 yards after contact per attempt and only one missed tackle forced with his eight attempts. He excels in the passing game with 2.21 yards per route run on his 17 targets. Even if Ogunbowale can carve out all of the passing game to himself, this puts him on the flex radar against a Chiefs’ defense that’s 29th in DVOA against receiving backs. Kansas City allows the second-most receptions and receiving yards per game to running backs.

J.K. Dobbins: The Ravens wasted no time taking the training wheels off Dobbins in his first game back. He played 43% of the snaps finishing with 15 carries for 120 rushing yards (one score). Dobbins was the backfield’s clear leader, leading the group in rushing attempts, routes, and red zone work. Dobbins concluded the week with a strong 3.13 yards after contact per attempt and three runs of ten or more yards. Dobbins is an RB2 this week with smash upside. Since Week 10, Cleveland is 27th in rushing success rate, 23rd in rushing yards per game, and 28th in explosive run rate allowed.

Week 15 TE Start/Sit Grades

Notes

David Njoku: In his first game with Watson under center, Njoku drew a 23.1% target share, finishing with seven grabs, 59 receiving yards (one touchdown), and a 93.6% route run rate. Njoku was the TE2 for the week. Njoku ranks third in PFF receiving grade, sixth in yards per route run, and 15th in YAC per reception as the TE6 in fantasy (minimum 15 targets). Njoku ranks ninth in deep targets and sixth in red zone targets among tight ends. Njoku is a strong TE1 against a Baltimore defense that is giving up the seventh-highest catch rate and fifth-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Dawson Knox: Since Week 6, Knox has resumed his every-down role for the Bills with a 12.7% target share, 75.3% route run rate, and 22.2% end zone target share (0.5 end zone targets per game). Over his last eight games, Knox is 35th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Knox is a replacement-level TE2 in most weeks, but this week he faces the Dolphins, who can’t cover tight ends at all. Miami is 29th in DVOA against the position. Since Week 8, they have allowed the sixth-highest catch rate, seventh-most receiving yards per game, and fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Knox is a TE1.

Cole Kmet: In his last four games played with Fields under center, Kmet has a 26.7% target share, 40% end zone target share, and 68.3% route run rate. In that sample, he has a 29% target per route run rate and 2.64 yards per route run while averaging 55.5 receiving yards. Kmet is a low-end TE1 with a rough matchup in Week 15. The Eagles are fifth in DVOA, holding tight ends to the sixth-lowest catch rate and seventh-lowest receiving yards per game.

Tyler Conklin: Conklin is a fantastic tight-end streamer this week. Conklin has a 15.8% target share (15th) and 69.9% route participation (18th). He’s 11th in YAC and 26th in yards per route run. He has three touchdowns on the season despite only four red zone targets (37th). Conklin is a low-end TE1 against a Lions’ defense that is 29th in catch rate, 25th in receiving yards per game, and 28th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

Dalton Schultz: Since Week 7, Schultz has had a 20.3% target share, 50% end zone target share, and 66.5% route run rate. With Prescott under center in that stretch, Schultz is the TE6 in fantasy points per game. Over his last seven games, he’s 15th in PFF receiving grade, fourth in yards per route run, and 12th in YAC. Schultz is a top-five tight end. Jacksonville is 32nd in DVOA against tight ends allowing the tenth-highest catch rate and the third-highest yards per reception.

Evan Engram: With Engram’s ridiculous and earth-shattering Week 14 stat line, he’s up to TE9 for the season. Engram is 14th in target share (16.6%) and 13th in route participation (72.7%) this season. He’s handled eight deep targets (fifth) and eight red zone looks (11th). Half of his red zone targets have come in the last two games, as the team has heavily involved him in the weekly game plan. Engram is a low-end TE1 facing a Dallas defense that’s seventh in DVOA against the position allowing the lowest yards per reception and only one touchdown to tight ends.

Week 15 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Week 15 K Start/Sit Grades

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.