Week 15 Daily Fantasy Digest (2022 Fantasy Football)

The three-game DFS slate on Saturday was an appetizer for Sunday’s 10-game main slate. Unfortunately, none of the games have a total of at least 50 points. Further, the game with the highest total has the largest point spread. The result is an interesting slate to parse through for player selections.

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Week 15 Matchups

Game: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Spread: NO -4.0 Points

Over/Under: 43.5 Points

Falcons Analysis: Desmond Ridder is making his first start in the NFL and has a lackluster supporting cast. Gamers should fade the Falcons.

Saints Analysis: The Saints' defense can score points against a third-round pick, making his first NFL start. However, they also might have a better real-life performance than DFS showing if the Falcons can keep it close and minimize the times Ridder drops back to pass. Gamers should keep the Saints in mind in tournaments if they have excess salary and want to swerve from chalkier selections.

Rashid Shaheed is a fun tournament dart. The undrafted rookie is a dynamic playmaker and is involved in the offense. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he's run the second-most routes (48) in New Orleans' previous two games. Shaheed burst on the scene earlier in the year when he housed a 44-yard run in Week 6 and then scored on a 53-yard reception in Week 7. Shaheed was quiet after that but resurfaced in the Saints' last two games, reeling in six receptions for 128 yards and rushing twice for six yards. There are a handful of intriguing punts, but gamers shouldn't sleep on Shaheed.

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers

Spread: CAR -3.0 Points

Over/Under: 37.5 Points

Steelers Analysis: Kenny Pickett's status is up in the air as he works through the NFL's concussion protocol. It doesn't matter. Pittsburgh's offense is a joke. Their implied total (17.25 points) is all gamers need to know. They're an easy fade.

Panthers Analysis: The Panthers are a ground-and-pound team. Fortunately, their offensive line is built to oblige. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers are fifth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.75).

According to numberFire, D'Onta Foreman rushed 84 times for 338 yards and one touchdown when Carolina was tied or leading in their previous four games. He's had more than 20 rushes in three of his last four games and exceeded 110 rushing yards twice. The Panthers are favored. So, Foreman has good odds for a favorable game script and piling up rushing yards.

Carolina's defense is an excellent stacking option with Foreman or a one-off pick against Pittsburgh's lowly offense. They've held three of their last four opponents to 15 points or fewer. The Panthers have also forced at least one turnover in their past four games, recording six and tallying 14 sacks.

Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Spread: PHI -9.0 Points

Over/Under: 48.5 Points

Eagles Analysis: The Eagles can impose their will against Chicago's lousy defense. The match is downright titillating for the passing attack, though. According to Football Outsiders, the Bears are dead last in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 8.

Jalen Hurts is playing at an MVP-caliber level and can smash the Bears. The dual-threat quarterback has thrown multiple touchdowns in seven of his last eight games and rushed for a touchdown in four of his last five contests. The third-year signal-caller is averaging 242.8 passing yards and 52.8 rushing yards per game this season. Therefore, Hurts has a cathedral-high ceiling since he can exploit Chicago's dreadful pass and run defense. So, the lineup optimizer projects him as the QB1 in DFS and for the highest value score among quarterbacks (QB1V) at both providers on Sunday's main slate.

A.J. Brown is the top pass-catching option for the Eagles. He's averaging 5.0 receptions and 78.5 receiving yards per game and has scored 10 touchdowns. The underlying data is superb, too. First, per PFF, he's eighth in Yards per Route Run (2.43 Y/RR) out of 79 wide receivers with at least 40 targets this year. Second, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Brown is seventh in Target Share (27.5%). Philadelphia's top wideout is projected as the WR6 at DraftKings and the WR3 at FanDuel, where he's tied for the WR2V.

Dallas Goedert might be back to muddy the pass-catching pecking order. Nevertheless, DeVonta Smith is a sweet option at a discount from Brown's salary. The second-year wideout has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games, had at least four receptions in his past five games and reached at least 50 receiving yards in his previous four games. Smith showed his ceiling in Week 3 when he erupted for eight receptions, 169 receiving yards and a touchdown, and he cleared 100 receiving yards again in Week 13.

The matchup is also inviting. According to PFF's Week 15 wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart, Smith has the most significant matchup advantage this week. He's projected as a WR12 in DFS this week and has a tournament-worthy ceiling.

Bears Analysis: Justin Fields was out in Week 12 with a shoulder injury. Thankfully, he assuaged concerns about the injury impacting his fantasy outlook when he returned in Week 13 and passed for 254 yards and two interceptions but rumbled for 71 rushing yards and a touchdown. The dual-threat second-year quarterback has rushed for at least 60 yards in his previous seven games and scored at least one touchdown in his past six.

Fields has a good matchup to show off his rushing prowess again this week. Quarterbacks have rushed for the 12th-most yards (273) against the Eagles this year and gashed them for 6.8 yards per carry. Fields' ability to score a ton of points on the ground and sprinkle in more through the air makes him a high-ceiling GPP choice.

Cole Kmet is listed on the table only as a stacking partner with Fields or as a bring-back option for a Philadelphia stack.

Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

Spread: KC -14.0 Points

Over/Under: 49.5 Points

Chiefs Analysis: The Cowboys failed to boat race the Texans last week. That might have provided a wake-up call for the Chiefs this week. They should have no trouble with steamrolling Houston.

Travis Kelce can have a sizable hand in the beatdown. The superstar tight end is tied for the NFL lead in touchdown receptions (12), is 13th in receptions per game (6.2) and is eighth in receiving yards per game (79.9). So, Kelce is a matchup-proof one-of-a-kind monster at tight end and always has a compelling case for inclusion on DFS rosters. He's projected as the TE1 in DFS and has the TE1V at FD.

Isiah Pacheco will thrive if the Chiefs crush the Texans. First, Kansas City's offensive line is tied for third in Adjusted Line Yards (4.77). Second, the rookie running back has had at least 15 touches in his last five games. Third, Pacheco has averaged 78.8 rushing yards per game, scored two touchdowns and chipped in 11.2 receiving yards per game during his five-game breakout.

Pacheco should be busy salting away a blowout win and has a cushy matchup. The hard-charging rookie has rushed 32 times versus only four rushes by Kansas City's other running backs when they've led by at least eight points in their last five games. Meanwhile, running backs have rushed for an NFL-high 141.1 yards per game against the Texans, more than 11 yards clear of the second-highest total. So, Pacheco is projected as the RB9 in DFS and has the RB6V at DK.

Texans Analysis: The Texans are a DFS wasteland. Chris Moore delivered the goods for gamers who took the plunge last week. However, the DFS outlets have correctly increased his salary, making him an unappealing pick.

Game: Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars

Spread: DAL -4.0 Points

Over/Under: 47.5 Points

Cowboys Analysis: CeeDee Lamb is in a rebound spot after bottoming out for five receptions and 33 scoreless yards in Week 14. The third-year wideout has been the apple of Dak Prescott's eye this year and flourished. On Prescott's 251 pass attempts this year, Lamb has team-highs in Target Share (26.3%), receptions (43), receiving yards (581), Air Yards (684) and touchdown receptions (four).

Lamb has a mouthwatering matchup this week. According to PFF, Lamb has played 59.6% of his passing snaps aligned in the slot since Week 8. Meanwhile, slots have barbecued the Jaguars. According to the 33rd Team's data provided by SIS, the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most DK points per game and fourth-most FD points per game to slot wideouts since Week 8. It's wheels up for Lamb taking flight this week, and he's projected as the WR4 in DFS on Sunday, boasting the WR7V at DK and tying for the WR4V at FD.

Jaguars Analysis: Travis Etienne is a boom-or-bust back and faces a good run defense that's had lapses this season. Can the stars align for a blow-up game? Etienne demonstrated his upside from Week 5 through Week 9, besting 100 scrimmage yards in all five games, surpassing 100 rushing yards three times, scoring four touchdowns and averaging 124.2 scrimmage yards and 2.2 receptions per game. Sadly, he's had fewer than 75 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns in his last four games.

Nevertheless, Etienne had at least a 75% snap share in six of his last seven games. So, he's a genuine feature back. Circling back to Dallas's run defense, they've allowed more than 135 rushing yards six times this season. Three of those games were against mobile quarterbacks, but the Packers creamed them for 207 rushing yards in Week 10. As a result, Etienne has a path to have a massive day, and he's projected as the RB10 on both platforms.

Game: Detroit Lions at New York Jets

Spread: NYJ -1.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Lions Analysis: The matchup is wretched for Amon-Ra St. Brown. Still, the second-year wideout is a matchup-proof target sponge. The Sun God has missed one game and dealt with injuries in two. Yet, he's been otherwise otherworldly. In eight healthy contests, ARSB has had a 29.7% Target Share, earned a target on 31% of his routes and amassed 77 receptions, 876 receiving yards, 2.66 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR), 635 Air Yards, six touchdowns, seven rushes and 89 rushing yards.

ARSB isn't a shoo-in to shred Gang Green's talented secondary, but the optimizer values the wideout's volume more than the matchup. As a result, he's projected as the WR3 at DK and the WR5 at FD.

Jets Analysis: Mike White is the most intriguing value option at quarterback. He played through some vicious hits last week and came out of the game worse for wear. Thankfully, his status doesn't appear in question for this week. Perhaps, White's play might suffer, though. So, he's not a risk-free value choice.

He's provided a significant jolt to New York's offense and warrants tournament consideration, despite concerns about him playing while banged up. The Jets have opened up the offense under White's guidance, attempting 78 passes and 49 rushes in neutral game scripts in his three starts. White has produced 952 passing yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in his starts and added a rushing touchdown.

Unfortunately, White doesn't have the upside of the elite quarterbacks on the slate, but he's a stellar GPP option if the studs are a tick below their ceilings. If White is within shouting distance of the top signal-callers in DFS, the salary savings he provides can make a massive difference.

Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore are exciting picks in the White-led offense. Wilson has a 23.3% Target Share, 19 receptions, 335 receiving yards, 377 Air Yards and two touchdowns on White's passing attempts. The prodigious rookie has bested 75 receiving yards and had at least five receptions in White's three starts, exploding for five receptions for 95 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 12 and popping off for eight receptions and 162 receiving yards in Week 13.

Moore is a riskier selection. Yet, the second-year wideout has had at least 60 receiving yards in two of his last three games and run 45 and 47 routes in the last two contests. Moore is primarily used in the slot and has the ideal matchup for slot wideouts. Since Week 8, the Lions have permitted the most DK and FD points per game to slot wide receivers.

Revisiting Wilson, he has a good matchup, too. Wilson is projected as the WR7 at DK, has the WR3V there, and ranks as the WR6 at FD while tying for the WR4V. Meanwhile, Moore has the WR1V at DK and is an excellent option at FD as well.

Game: Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos

Spread: DEN -3.0 Points

Over/Under: 37.0 Points

Cardinals Analysis: Sadly, Kyler Murray tore his ACL last week, ending his 2022 campaign. The Cards' offense's ceiling takes a nosedive now that veteran journeyman Colt McCoy is the starter. They aren't a viable source of DFS picks.

Broncos Analysis: Rookie tight ends usually face a steep learning curve in the NFL. Greg Dulcich has bucked the trend by carving out a fantasy-friendly role in Denver's otherwise bleak offense. In eight contests this year, Dulcich has averaged 3.5 receptions and 45.1 receiving yards per game and scored one touchdown. The rookie's underlying stats have been rock-solid as well. Since debuting in Week 6, he's had a 16.2% Target Share and garnered a target on 17.6% of his routes.

Dulcich's usage should allow him to dazzle in a mouthwatering matchup. Tight ends have averaged the most receiving yards per game (68.9) and had the most receptions (86) and receiving touchdowns (nine) against the Cardinals. The optimizer digs him this week, projecting him as the TE4 in DFS and tagging him with the TE3V at DK and a tie for the TE4V at FD.

The Broncos are home favorites, and the Cardinals have the lowest implied total on Sunday's main slate. As a result, our algorithm projects Denver's DST for the DST1V at both DFS providers.

Game: New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders

Spread: LV -1.0 Points

Over/Under: 44.5 Points

Patriots Analysis: It looks like DeVante Parker and Jakobi Meyers are trending toward remaining in the NFL's concussion protocol through this week. Nelson Agholor is a volume-driven punt if both wideouts are ruled out. Meyers was out last week, and Parker was knocked out early in the contest, leaving Agholor to soak up 10 targets. Agholor inefficiently had only five receptions for 32 receiving yards, but the targets forbode a better outcome against the Raiders this week if he's the last man standing again. So, Agholor has the WR4V at DK.

Raiders Analysis: The Raiders activated Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow from the Injured Reserve (IR) earlier this week, and they might return this week. Most gamers will likely err on the side of caution and wait to see how they play before trusting them in DFS.

However, taking the plunge on Renfrow is appealing at his punt salary in a decent matchup. Slot wideouts have the 14th-most DK and the 12th-most FD points per game against the Patriots since Week 8. Renfrow can pile up high-percentage targets if the Patriots dedicate their resources to stopping Davante Adams or if Josh Jacobs' finger injury hampers his pass-catching ability. But, of course, he could also be rusty or struggle as he did before landing on the IR. Gamers shouldn't go overboard using Renfrow, but he's worth firing a few bullets on in GPPs for gamers entering multiple lineups.

Game: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

Spread: LAC -3.0 Points

Over/Under: 46.5 Points

Titans Analysis: The Chargers are lousy at defending the run. Since Week 8, they're 22nd in rush defense DVOA. Teams have understandably attacked their run defense. LA's opponents have attempted 146 passes and 138 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 8.

You don't have to threaten Mike Vrabel with what he considers a good time. The defensive-minded head coach loves to use his burly beast of a running back, Derrick Henry. Since Ryan Tannehill returned from an injury in Week 10, the Titans have attempted 112 passes (two by Henry for four yards and a touchdown) and 83 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. King Henry toted the rock on 78 of those attempts.

Henry snapped a rushing funk last week by ripping off 121 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts. Moreover, Henry's surge in receiving usage this year is a pleasant development that elevates his floor and ceiling. He's had more than 30 receiving yards in three of his last four games and in six games total this year. Henry is currently setting a new career-high with 24.6 receiving yards per game on 2.0 receptions per game. The sky's the limit for him this week. Henry is projected as the RB2 with the RB4V at DK and the RB1 while tying for the RB1V at FD.

Chigoziem Okonkwo is another nifty pick from the Titans. Treylon Burks is still in the concussion protocol after suffering one early in the Week 13 contest. Okonkwo has benefited from his absence. In his last two games, Okonkwo had 11 targets, 10 receptions, 113 receiving yards and one touchdown.

The rookie has also shined relative to his peers this year. Okonkwo is first in Yards per Route Run (2.58 Y/RR) and fourth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (8.2 YAC/REC) out of 36 tight ends targeted at least 30 times this season. So, Okonkwo's a delightful punt this week. He has the TE2V at DK and the TE8V at FD.

Chargers Analysis: The Chargers versus the Titans is a match made in heaven for Justin Herbert and LA's passing attack. The hosts have a pass-heavy offense, and the Titans have a pass-funnel defense. Tennessee's opponents have attempted only 85 rushes by non-quarterbacks and chucked the pigskin 199 times in neutral game scripts since Week 8. And, frankly, why shouldn't teams avoid Tennessee's stout run defense when the Titans are 26th in pass defense DVOA since Week 8?

The Chargers will undoubtedly take the invite. They've attempted 92 rushes by non-quarterbacks and 218 passes in neutral game scripts since Week 8. Herbert enters this game on fire, too. He's passed for more than 330 yards in back-to-back games and averaged 314 passing yards per game while tossing seven touchdowns and only one interception in his last four games. Herbert is a dreamy selection this week and the QB3 in DFS.

Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler have compelling cases for DFS usage, and more than one of them can pile up fantasy points against the Titans. Last week was the only data point for Allen, Williams and Ekeler playing an entire contest together this year.

Ekeler had 104 scrimmage yards, eight receptions and one touchdown. Allen led the team in targets (14) and receptions (12) and had 92 scoreless yards. Williams reeled in his half-dozen targets for six receptions, 116 receiving yards and one touchdown.

They each have drool-inducing matchups, too. Running backs have the second-most receptions (83) and the ninth-most receiving yards per game (42.0) against the Titans.

Receivers have also barbecued the Titans. Since Week 8, slot wide receivers have averaged the eighth-most DK and 11th-most FD points per game against the Titans. Meanwhile, perimeter wideouts have averaged the fourth-most DK and second-most FD points per game against Tennessee.

The Titans have also been eviscerated deep. In their last seven games, they've allowed 16 completions on 39 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 Air Yards for 499 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. Big Mike had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.7 yards downfield last week and is the best bet to take the top off against the Titans.

So, again, all three players are tantalizing picks. Ekeler is projected as the RB1 at DK and the RB2 at FD, with the RB3V at the former and tying for the RB1V at the latter. Allen projects as the WR5 and has the WR5V at DK and is the WR7 and has the WR11V at FD. Finally, Williams is the WR10 at DK and the WR9 at FD, with the WR8V at both.

Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: CIN -3.5 Points

Over/Under: 44.0 Points

Bengals Analysis: Fantasy gamers were enraged last week by Cincinnati's injury report shenanigans with Tee Higgins. Their No. 2 wideout didn't have an injury designation for the game but was limited to only one snap. Then, Tyler Boyd played only a couple of snaps and exited the contest with a dislocated finger which broke the skin.

The injuries paved the way for Ja'Marr Chase to torch the Browns for 10 receptions, 119 receiving yards, one touchdown and six rushing yards. Chase had a 45.5% Target Share. Even if Higgins or Boyd play this week, Chase can cede some volume and still be a target hog.

The second-year wideout hasn't shown any ill effects from the hip injury, which sidelined him for a few weeks. Instead, he's had 17 receptions for 216 receiving yards and one touchdown in his two games since rejoining the Bengals. Chase was a monster before he was hurt, too. He had 15 receptions for 262 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his last two games before he was on the shelf with his hip injury. Last week might have been a sign he's ready to recapture his pre-injury form. So, Chase is the WR2 in DFS and is tied for the WR2V at FD.

Joe Mixon returned from a two-game absence for a concussion. Pessimists will point to Mixon's snap share in Week 14 as a reason for concern. He played only 58% of Cinci's snaps, his lowest mark in a healthy contest in 2022. The team might be rewarding Samaje Perine for playing well in Mixon's stead.

However, an optimist can get excited about Mixon's efficiency last week. He rushed for 96 yards at a scintillating 6.86 yards per carry and secured both of his targets for 10 yards. Yes, Mixon's highly-efficient effort was against Cleveland's pitiful run defense. The runway is clear for another good matchup this week, though.

Tampa Bay's run-stuffing nose tackle Vita Vea is unlikely to play this week. Vea played only a handful of snaps last week, and San Francisco's running backs gashed the Buccaneers for 175 rushing yards and one touchdown, and Deebo Samuel added four carries for 21 yards and a touchdown. Mixon is projected as the RB7 in DFS and can exceed that projection if the Bengals increase his workload after another week back in the mix from his two-game absence.

Buccaneers Analysis: The Bucs are broken on offense. They've scored only 41 points in three games since their bye in Week 11, and they've had more than 20 points only twice in their last eight games. Stay away from them in DFS.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant - that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.