The Cardinals host the Patriots this week to wrap up Week 14. The Patriots are without their top wideout and will need others to step up. However, it might not be the wideouts bumped up a spot on the depth chart. The Cardinals have some explosive playmakers. Yet, they haven’t played together frequently this year, creating some guessing as to how things will shake out. As a result, it’s a fun showdown slate that requires a bit more speculation than usual.
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The Cardinals host the Patriots this week to wrap up Week 14. The Patriots are without their top wideout and will need others to step up. However, it might not be the wideouts bumped up a spot on the depth chart. The Cardinals have some explosive playmakers. Yet, they haven’t played together frequently this year, creating some guessing as to how things will shake out. As a result, it’s a fun showdown slate that requires a bit more speculation than usual.
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Lineup Optimizer – which allows you to build winning DFS lineups in seconds for Cash and GPP contests – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Game: New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: NE -1.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Patriots Analysis: According to numberFire, the Patriots have attempted 113 passes and 73 rushes by non-quarterbacks in their last five games. Mac Jones hasn't lit it up during that five-game stretch. However, he passed for 1,164 yards, five touchdowns and just one interception. Jones was lucky to have only one pick, though. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he had five turnover-worthy plays in his last five games.
Fortunately, Jones has a good matchup this week. According to Football Outsiders, the Cardinals are 27th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 8. Further, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Cardinals have allowed the ninth-most passing yards per game (245.4) and tied for the most touchdown passes allowed (24) this year. So, Jones is a stellar choice.
Rhamondre Stevenson is arguably the best exposure to New England's passing attack, with the added bonus of being a bell-cow back facing a leaky run defense (31st in rush defense DVOA). Per PFF, Stevenson has tied for the team lead in receiving yards (238) and led the club in targets (37) and receptions (31) in New England's last five games. The second-year back has been targeted on a superb 27.8% of his routes in that five-game stretch.
The matchup isn't just good for Stevenson's rushing outlook. Arizona has also struggled to defend running backs in the passing attack. First, according to Football Outsiders, running backs have averaged the seventh-most receiving yards per game (44.2) against the Cardinals. Second, per Pro-Football-Reference, Arizona has allowed the ninth-most receptions (67) to running backs. Third, the Red Birds have also served up 12 touchdowns and 4.55 yards per carry to them. So, while Stevenson's receiving chops rightfully get most of the attention, he's also averaging 61.2 rushing yards per game, punched in four touchdowns on the ground and can exploit Arizona's porous run defense. As a result, Stevenson is an excellent, game-script-proof pick.
The Cardinals have been hilariously bad at defending tight ends this year. They've coughed up the most receiving yards per game (68.4), receptions (83) and touchdown receptions (nine) to tight ends this year. Thus, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are stellar matchup-driven options.
Cardinals Analysis: The Cardinals have attempted 117 passes and 71 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts in their previous five games. Sadly, Kyler Murray has passed for under 200 yards in back-to-back games and fewer than 225 in four of his last five. Nevertheless, Murray has thrown multiple touchdowns in three straight contests, erupted for 326 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 8 against the Vikings and shredded defenses on the ground.
The dual-threat quarterback has scampered for more than 55 yards in his last two games, ripped the Seahawks for a season-high 100 rushing yards in Week 6, averaged 41.5 rushing yards per game and scored three rushing touchdowns this season.
Murray's ability to score fantasy points through the air and on the ground makes him the highest-ceiling player on the slate. In addition, this will be only the second game Arizona's top-two wideouts have played together, and Justin Fields showed the Patriots could be vulnerable against running quarterbacks when he ran for 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts in New England in Week 7. So, again, Murray has the highest ceiling on the slate.
DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown played together for the first time this year in Week 12 before Arizona's bye last week. They were easily the top passing game options. According to PFF, Hollywood led the team in routes (33), targets (eight) and receptions (six) and had 46 scoreless yards. Nuk was second in routes (30), targets (five) and receptions (four) and led the team in receiving yards (87) while hauling in a touchdown. They're both attractive options, but the salary discount for Brown on DraftKings is too stark, making him a relative steal.
Brown and a returning Greg Dortch should have the best matchup for Arizona's wideouts. Slot wideouts have torched the Patriots in the last six weeks, as you can see on TJ Hernandez's chart.
Brown played a team-high 24 snaps in the slot last week. However, he'll probably play more on the perimeter this week with diminutive wideout Dortch back in the mix. Dortch has aligned in the slot for 85.5% of his passing snaps this season. Still, Brown can rotate through the slot when the club opts to use Robbie Anderson or A.J. Green on the perimeter on the opposite side of Nuk.
James Conner is also an enticing option. He's a genuine workhorse for the Cardinals. Conner had a 71% snap share when he returned from an injury for Week 9 and has hit 96%, 77% (deflated by Conner getting yanked early in a blowout) and 97% snap shares in his last three games. In his last three games, Conner has rushed 60 times for 231 yards and three touchdowns. He's also chipped in eight receptions for 49 yards and one touchdown.
New England's run defense is seventh in rush defense DVOA. However, Buffalo's running backs gashed them for 115 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries in Week 13. Further, when they faced Fields in Week 7 and Lamar Jackson in Week 3, their running backs combined for 40 rush attempts, 207 rushing yards and two touchdowns (one rushing and one receiving). So, the running backs who've played with mobile quarterbacks against the Patriots this year have drilled them. Thus, Murray's mobility might help open up rushing opportunities for Conner.
Final Thoughts: Murray is an outstanding captain/MVP. Stevenson is also an excellent choice. Jones and Brown are potentially contrarian plays, namely at DK for the latter. Balanced lineups or slightly unbalanced ones toward the Cardinals are the most inviting lineup construction.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
