We’re closing in on the fantasy football playoffs, which makes every week a must-win for many fantasy managers. To help navigate these crucial times, we asked some of our experts to break down some of the matchups they’re monitoring heading into Week 13 of the NFL season.
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Saquon Barkley vs. the Philadelphia Eagles Run Defense
Saquon Barkley has been one of the best running backs this season, averaging 87.9 rushing yards per game. However, he has struggled over the past three weeks, averaging only 41.3 rushing yards per contest, totaling fewer than 40 yards twice. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles surrendered 120.8 rushing yards per game to running backs in their previous four matchups before the Week 13 contests against the Tennessee Titans. Yet, they held Derrick Henry to only 30 rushing yards last week. Can the Eagles keep Barkley in check this week in a critical NFC East matchup?
– Mike Fanelli (@Mike_NFL2)
Stefon Diggs vs. Sauce Gardner, Round Two
When the Bills went to New York in Week 9, Diggs burned rookie sensation Sauce Gardner for 42 yards on the game’s first play from scrimmage. However, Diggs had a relatively quiet day after that, catching only four of nine targets for 51 yards. Gardner and the Jets also got the last laugh as they won the game 20-17. What will these two do for an encore? You’re starting Diggs regardless, but you have to be nervous about this matchup if you are fighting for a playoff spot. Sunday’s contest is huge for both teams, and Diggs’ fantasy managers will no doubt be on pins and needles.
– Scott Youngson (@jscottyoungson)
Dameon Pierce vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dameon Pierce got back to encouraging usage: 18 carries for 73 yards, and 3 catches for 22 yards in Week 13. But No. 2 RB Dare Ogunbowale totaled 2 carries (both inside the 10-yard line) for 8 yards and 2 catches for 13 yards. And Pierce only ran a route on 49% of dropbacks. It’s concerning that the team opted to use Ogunbowale inside the 10-yard line instead of Pierce. There’s a lot of risk with Pierce in Week 14 for fear that Houston gets blown out versus a red-hot Dallas defense playing at home. The Cowboys allow the 5th fewest fantasy points to the RB position and rank top-5 in fewest TDs allowed on the ground to RBs. With the Texans’ 14-point implied team total as 17.5-point road dogs, Pierce could be a major bust in Week 14 without a locked-and-loaded receiving role to buoy his fantasy value. And speaking of Texans busts…
Nico Collins vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys boast the No. 1 in pass defense EPA this season. They have allowed the second-fewest targets per game to No. 1 WRs (6.4) and the second-fewest receiving yards per game at 49.1 receiving yards. And since Week 6, Dallas ranks 5th in fewest receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs overall. With a pass rush that figures to give Kyle Allen fits all day long, Nico Collins hardly offers a massive fantasy ceiling in this spot after a subpar outing in Week 13. Collins saw a whopping 10 targets (27% target share) but caught just 3 passes for 35 yards. His final numbers were boosted by a late TD score. The second-year WR saw 173 air yards (60% air yards share) and went 0-4 on his 4 targets of 20-plus air yards. You are threading the needle attaching yourself to any Texans player in Week 14.
Gabriel Davis vs. the New York Jets
We faded Adam Thielen last week to great results as the No. 2 WR going up against the vaunted Jets secondary. And we are running it back by fading Gabriel Davis in Week 14.
The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs since Week 6. They rank 4th in DVOA versus No. 2 WRs allowing the 5th-fewest receiving yards (39 yards per game) to opposing No. 2 WRs. Davis has just a 19.5% target share in his last 3 games played that has seen Isaiah McKenzie also play a full-time role. And the last time Davis faced the Jets he caught just 2 passes for 33 yards on 5 targets.
– Andrew Erickson (@AndrewErickson_)
Note: Check back on Thursday and Friday for Andrew Erickson’s “Land Mines” and “Smash City” pieces for comprehensive breakdowns of matchups you should be avoiding and targeting this week in your fantasy football matchups.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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