It’s the final week of byes, and six teams are off this week. So, there are only 10 games on the main slate. Last week, there were numerous games with a total above or nearly 50 points. This week, only one game has a total north of 50, and the second-highest total on the main slate is just 47.0 points. Thus, the landscape is different this week.
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Week 14 Matchups
Game: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Jets Analysis: The Jets have opened up the offense under the leadership of Mike White. According to numberFire, in neutral game scripts in the past two weeks, the Jets have attempted 56 passes and 31 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Garrett Wilson had flashed his potential this year, regardless of who was under center for Gang Green. Yet, he's exploded in two games in which White started. Since Week 12, he's had 23 targets (27.1% Target Share), 82 routes (28.0% target per route run), 13 receptions, 257 receiving yards, 296 Air Yards and two touchdowns.
The matchup is potentially good, too. The Bills have a stingy pass defense and recently received reinforcement from Tre'Davious White at cornerback. However, according to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the fifth-most receiving yards per game (80.9) against the Bills. As a result, Wilson is projected for a DFS-friendly outing. According to our lineup optimizer, Wilson is projected as the WR12 at FanDuel and the WR13 at DraftKings, tying for the WR6 value score (WR6V) at FD and tying for the WR3V at DK.
Bills Analysis: The Bills came out of the gate slinging the rock around the yard this year. They've used the run a bit more lately. Still, they're a pass-first team at their core. In neutral game scripts since Week 10, Buffalo has had 107 pass attempts, 19 rush attempts by Josh Allen and 64 rush attempts by non-quarterbacks.
Allen has had some shaky throws lately while battling his elbow injury. However, the dual-threat quarterback looked a bit better last week and has elite season-long numbers. According to Pro-Football-Reference, Allen is fourth in passing yards per game (283.8) and tied for second in passing touchdowns (25). Allen's also rushed for 48.4 yards per game and five touchdowns.
He has a challenging matchup against the Jets. Regardless, Allen's ceiling is worth chasing in tournaments. Allen is projected as the QB2 in DFS, with the QB2V at FD on this week's main slate. This contest also has sneaky-good pace potential for Allen and the other players. According to Football Outsiders, the Bills are fifth in situation-neutral pace, and the Jets are 12th.
Gabe Davis is a field-stretching receiver who hasn't produced consistent results. Nevertheless, according to Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he's 16th in Intended Air Yards (1,053). The deep looks always allow Davis to explode in any contest. So, he has a case for contrarian usage in tournaments.
Isaiah McKenzie might be busy this week if the Jets force the Bills to work underneath. Allen has been willing to take what the defense gives him in Buffalo's previous two games, resulting in 11 receptions for 140 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets for McKenzie. Buffalo's slot wideout has also chipped in two rushes for seven yards.
Further, McKenzie is trusted in the red zone. According to our red zone stats, McKenzie is second among Buffalo's wideouts in targets (12), receptions (six) and receiving touchdowns (four) inside the 20-yard line. He's even handled two carries for two yards and another touchdown. So, McKenzie is a viable value option.
Sadly, Dawson Knox hasn't duplicated his breakout 2021 campaign. However, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Knox ran the third-most routes (139) on the Bills since Week 10. The young tight end had 13 receptions and 144 receiving yards in the previous four weeks.
Being on the field and running routes is encouraging, though. And the matchup is stellar for Knox. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Jets have allowed the fourth-most receptions per game (5.25) to tight ends this year, and New York has coughed up the 11th-most receiving yards per game (53.3) to the position.
James Cook is another enticing selection from the Bills. The rookie running back essentially split playing time down the middle with Devin Singletary last week, sporting a season-high 43% snap share. Cook has had over 85 scrimmage yards and bested 10 rush attempts in two of his past three games.
The Bills have also trusted him when salting away games. When they've led by at least eight points since Week 10, Singletary had 19 carries, and Cook had 15. Cook has also flashed his explosiveness and elusiveness as a runner in his limited opportunities this year. According to PFF, Cook is 13th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.28 YCO/A) and 11th in PFF's Elusiveness Rating out of 53 running backs who've attempted at least 50 rushes this year.
In addition, Cook's receiving chops are his most exciting skill. In his last three games, he's been targeted on an insane 48.1% of his 27 routes, converting his looks into eight receptions for 55 yards (2.04 Y/RR). The matchup is quite nice for Cook to remain involved in Buffalo's passing attack. Running backs have averaged the 10th-most receiving yards per game (40.6) and 5.25 receptions per game against the Jets. Cook isn't safe, but he's a fun value pick, especially at DK's full-point point-per-reception (PPR) platform, where he has the RB7V.
Game: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Spread: CIN -6.0 Points
Over/Under: 47.0 Points
Browns Analysis: Deshaun Watson was trash in the preseason and carried his atrocious play into his season debut last week against Houston's comically-bad defense. The Browns aren't a DFS consideration until Watson shows he can lead a functioning offense.
Bengals Analysis: The Bengals are humming and effectively using a pass-happy offense. In neutral game scripts since Week 10, they've attempted 106 passes and 58 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow is thriving this year in the pass-heavy offense, ranking second in passing yards per game (287.2) and tying for second in passing touchdowns (25). Interestingly, he's also shown off his rushing ability since Cinci's bye in Week 10, rushing 15 times for 93 yards and a touchdown in neutral game scripts.
The matchup is nifty for Burrow this week, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns are 21st in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). There is some risk the Bengals will lean on the running attack against Cleveland's pathetic run defense (31st in rush defense DVOA). However, in neutral game scripts since Week 10, Cleveland's opponents have attempted 107 passes and 64 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Therefore, the Bengals might not abandon their offensive tendencies because of Cleveland's dreadful run defense.
Burrow also could light them up deep. The Browns have faced only two competent quarterbacks in their past four games. Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen completed four-of-five attempts that traveled at least 20 Air Yards in Week 10 and Week 11. Burrow projects well this week, ranking as the QB4 in DFS, tying for the QB3V at DK and owning the QB3V at FD.
Ja'Marr Chase is the most attractive stacking option with Burrow after returning from his hip injury last week and not skipping a beat. He is ninth in receptions per game (6.8), seventh in receiving yards per game (87.8) and has scored six touchdowns in only eight games this season. And, according to PFF, Chase is tied for 18th in Yards per Route Run (2.06 Y/RR) out of 72 wideouts who've been targeted at least 40 times this season.
Finally, the matchup is decent. Wide receivers have tied for the seventh-most receiving touchdowns (12) and averaged a sizzling 13.3 yards per reception against the Browns.
Game: Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -16.5 Points
Over/Under: 45.5 Points
Texans Analysis: The Texans are returning to previously-benched Davis Mills, and he's likely to be without Houston's two best wideouts. Yikes. Gamers should avoid the Texans at all costs.
Cowboys Analysis: Dallas is going to boat race the Texans. Moreover, they should lean on their talented backfield from the first touch through the final whistle. Houston is 28th in rush defense DVOA, has tied for the most rushing touchdowns allowed (14) to running backs and has allowed the most rushing yards per game (144.2) at a whopping 5.1 yards per carry to them. Thus, teams have attempted 73 rushes by non-quarterbacks versus 61 passes in neutral game scripts against the Texans since Week 10.
The Cowboys are built to steamroll their intra-state foes. According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys are fifth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.74). The butt-kicking offensive line has done a superb job of paving the way for Dallas's running backs.
Tony Pollard is the more attractive option in their two-headed backfield. Pollard is a homer waiting to happen. The dynamic running back is 10th in rushing yards per game (71.0) and tied for eighth in rushing touchdowns (eight). His underlying metrics are also drool-inducing. According to PFF, he's 14th in Missed Tackles Forced (32), 13th in PFF's Elusiveness Rating and third in Yards After Contact per Attempt (4.07 YCO/A).
Pollard is also a weapon through the air. He's averaged 2.1 receptions and 21.6 receiving yards per game and scored two receiving touchdowns. Pollard has also shared closing duties in blowouts with Ezekiel Elliott, handling 12 rushes versus 18 for Zeke when the Cowboys have led by at least eight points since Week 10. However, Malik Davis will likely soak up the final touches when the game is entirely out of hand. Regardless, Pollard should be busy piling up fantasy points before Davis closes the show. As a result, Pollard is projected as the RB5 at DK and the RB6 at FD, with the RB5V at the former and the RB3V at the latter.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Cowboys are third in yards allowed per play (4.8), tied for second in turnovers forced (21), first in pressure rate (29.3%) and first in sacks (48). They're going to tee off on Mills and project as the DST1 with a matching value score in DFS this week.
Game: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 52.5 Points
Vikings Analysis: This is the most exciting game to attack in DFS this week. The game's total is juicy, the spread is small, and the pace should be blistering. Minnesota is seventh in situation-neutral pace, and Detroit is eighth. So, it's wheels up for the offenses.
First, let's take a macro look at the matchup info for the Vikings. In neutral game scripts since Week 10, Minnesota has attempted 95 passes and 60 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Teams that have faced the Lions since Week 10 have attempted 80 passes and 57 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 10. Yet, it's important to note mobile quarterbacks Justin Fields, Josh Allen and Daniel Jones also combined for 26 rush attempts against them.
The Lions have a below-average defense. They're 17th in pass defense DVOA and 25th in rush defense DVOA. Teams have also passed for the sixth-most yard per game (252.5) against Detroit.
The Vikings can take their pick for how they attack the Lions. Fortunately, they should get the good version of Kirk Cousins this week. He's been at his best indoors. According to the splits at Pro-Football-Reference, in 30 games indoors since 2020, Cousins has completed 67.2% of his passes, averaged 265.5 passing yards per game, tossed 62 touchdowns and threw only 18 interceptions. He's projected as the QB7 in DFS, is tied for the QB5V at DK and has the QB6V at FD.
Justin Jefferson is arguably the best selection on this week's main slate. He's projected as the WR1 in DFS and has the runaway WR1V at both outlets. Moreover, the third-year wideout is projected as the overall highest scorer at DK this week. Jefferson has earned his eye-popping projection by dominating this year.
Jefferson is fifth in receptions per game (7.3) and second in receiving yards per game (106.4) this season. He's also fifth in Target Share (28.8%), sixth in Intended Air Yards (1,320) and fifth in Yards per Route Run (2.64 Y/RR). Jefferson has a tasty matchup, too. No. 1 wideouts have averaged the fourth-most receiving yards per game (85.9) against the Lions. Obviously, there's a ton to love about Jefferson on the Week 14 main slate.
T.J. Hockenson is a rock-solid selection against his former team. He's tied for ninth in Yards per Route Run (1.60 Y/RR) out of 37 tight ends targeted at least 25 times this year. Hockenson has also transitioned nicely to his new club, averaging 6.0 receptions and 45.0 receiving yards per game and adding a touchdown for good measure.
The matchup is favorable as well. Tight ends have averaged the eighth-most receiving yards per game (55.4) against the Lions. Detroit is also tied for the second-most touchdown receptions allowed (eight) to tight ends this season. So, in his revenge game, Hockenson is projected as the TE3 in DFS and has the TE3V at DK and the TE4V at FD.
Dalvin Cook has had more impressive seasons in his career than this year. Yet, he's sixth in rushing yards per game (77.3) and tied for 12th in rushing touchdowns (seven). The veteran bell-cow back is also 11th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.36 YCO/A) and tied for eighth in Missed Tackles Forced (41).
Cook had a good game against the Lions in Week 3 that could have been massive if he hadn't hurt his shoulder. Regardless, 96 rushing yards and one touchdown on 17 rush attempts wasn't anything to sneeze at. The Lions have struggled with running backs this year. They've allowed the fourth-most rushing touchdowns (12) to running backs this year while ceding 99.5 rushing yards per game at 4.72 yards per carry to them. Cook is an upper-tier pick at running back this week, ranking as the RB3 in DFS, with the RB3V at DK and the RB4V at FD.
Lions Analysis: Jared Goff has been terrible on the road and awesome at home this year. Goff has averaged 269.6 passing yards per game, tossed 10 touchdowns and thrown only three interceptions in seven home tilts this season.
He should stay hot in home games in a plum draw this week. The Vikings are 24th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the most passing yards per game (283.6). Goff is a highly attractive value pick with the QB1V at DK and the QB4V at FD.
While Goff is a nifty value pick, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the star of the show from the hosts. ARSB has been a monster in healthy contests this year. In his healthy nine-game sample, the second-year wideout had 93 targets (30.5% Target Share and 31.8% target per route run), 71 receptions, 808 receiving yards, 2.77 Y/RR, six touchdown receptions, six rushes and 83 rushing yards.
The matchup is also a plus for the Sun God and teammate D.J. Chark. Wide receivers have had the most receiving yards and receptions against the Vikings and averaged 13.8 yards per reception against them. Further, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the second-most receiving yards per game (88.2) and No. 2 wideouts have averaged the second-most receiving yards per game (62.6) against the Vikings. In the following tweet from TJ Hernandez, you can also see how they've fared against perimeter and slot wideouts recently.
The Vikings have also allowed 12 completions on 22 passes (54.5%) that traveled at least 20 Air Yards since Week 10 for 361 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Their issues with defending the deep ball should benefit Chark's vertical usage. Chark wasn't the chart's focus in the following tweet, but his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) and targets per route run rate stood out.
Chark is a desirable value pick, and ARSB is a dreamy choice, projecting as the WR2 with the WR2V at DK and the WR4 with the WR3V at FD.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Spread: PHI -7.0 Points
Over/Under: 44.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: Jalen Hurts is putting together an MVP-caliber campaign. The third-year quarterback is averaging 245.0 passing yards per game and 50.8 rushing yards per game. Hurts is also a touchdown machine, tying for seventh in passing touchdowns (20) and tying for fifth in rushing touchdowns (nine).
The Eagles have leaned heavily on their dual-threat quarterback. Since Week 10, the Eagles have attempted 93 passes and used Hurts as a runner 32 times (excluding kneel-downs) in neutral game scripts. Philadelphia has a cushy matchup for their running and passing games. The Giants are 27th in rush defense DVOA and 28th in pass defense DVOA. Big Blue has also ceded 5.05 yards per carry to running backs. As a result, Hurts has a sky-high ceiling since he can take advantage of Big Blue's ineptitude at defending the rush and pass. He's projected as the QB1 in DFS with the QB1V at FD.
A.J. Brown destroyed his former employer last week. Nevertheless, DeVonta Smith shouldn't be overlooked. The second-year wideout is a talented No. 2 wideout, and his usage has ticked upward in three games without Dallas Goedert. According to numberFire, in those three contests, he's had team highs in targets (26), receiving yards (230) and Air Yards (312) and also had 15 receptions and one touchdown. Smith is projected as the WR14 in DFS in Week 14, with the WR10V at FD.
Quez Watkins is a viable punt if he can suit up and play with his AC joint injury. Watkins has had 10 receptions for 103 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets in the past three weeks. The speedster's field-stretching ability might not be fully displayed since the Giants have done an excellent job of preventing deep passes. Fortunately, nine of the speedster's 13 targets in the past three weeks were 10 yards or shallower downfield, including three gimmes at or behind the line of scrimmage just to get the ball in his hands.
Giants Analysis: The Giants are 21st in scoring offense (20.4 points per game) this year and lack weapons. Saquon Barkley is Big Blue's offensive focal point but hasn't been efficient. Barkley's scored touchdowns in back-to-back games. Unfortunately, he's had more than 100 scrimmage yards only one time in his last five games.
Game: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: PIT -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Ravens Analysis: Baltimore's offense was a fantasy wasteland when Lamar Jackson was healthy. It's unlikely to improve with backup Tyler Huntley.
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers have been a markedly better defense in games that T.J. Watt played this year. In the five games the stud edge rusher played, Pittsburgh's defense held opponents to 20.0 points per game and had 15 sacks and forced 12 turnovers. Unfortunately, Watt's status must be monitored after he was downgraded from being a limited participant in Wednesday's practice to not participating on Thursday. Pittsburgh can be used if he's out, but they're much more exciting if Watt can play. They're projected as the DST8 in DFS this week, with the DST3V at DK and the DST2V at FD.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Spread: JAC -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.0 Points
Jaguars Analysis: The utility of the Jaguars in DFS hinges on the availability of Trevor Lawrence this week. He hasn't practiced yet this week while nursing a toe injury, but Lawrence might still play.
The second-year quarterback should sling it against the Titans if he plays. The Jaguars have attempted 42 passes and 24 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 10. Conversely, the Titans are a pass-funnel defense, facing 108 pass attempts and just 50 rush attempts by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 10.
It's understandable why teams have attacked the Titans through the air. They're first in rush defense DVOA and 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Additionally, Tennessee has coughed up the second-most passing yards per game (276.7) and fourth-most touchdown passes (22) this season. Lawrence has flashed his upside lately and is the QB9 in DFS, with the QB2V at DK and the QB7V at FD this week.
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones are excellent passing game exposure to the Titans, too. Wide receivers have tied for the fourth-most receptions, have the second-most receiving yards and have the most touchdown receptions (17) against the Titans. No. 1 wideouts have averaged the ninth-most receiving yards per game (75.0) and No. 2 wideouts have averaged the eighth-most receiving yards per game (54.4) against Tennessee.
Kirk is playing well in his first year with the Jags. He's 17th in Target Share (24.6%) and 23rd in Yards per Route Run (1.90). Jacksonville's splashy free-agent signing is projected as the WR9 at DK with WR8V at DK and the WR10 while tying for the WR10V at FD.
The Jaguars also added Jones to their wide receiving corps in free agency during the offseason. Jones hasn't been as good as Kirk, but he's been decent. In Jacksonville's past three games, Jones has tied for the team lead in routes (119) and had 29 targets, 21 receptions and 229 receiving yards. Jones is tied for the WR10V at DK.
Travis Etienne will likely find the sledding tough on the ground. He could chip in some fantasy value on the ground, though. Etienne is 14th in PFF's Elusiveness Rating and tied for eighth in Missed Tackles Forced (41). Etienne has averaged 65.2 rushing yards per game, but that mark surges to 70.8 if you toss out his Week 12 contest when the Jags limited him to five offensive snaps by exercising caution when he experienced foot soreness.
There aren't many legitimate feature backs, but Etienne fits the bill, and his receiving work might be his path to DFS value this week. Running backs have averaged the sixth-most receiving yards per game (46.1) and most receptions per game (6.9) against the Titans this year. Etienne has big-play ability and a stranglehold on his lead-back duties, making him an attractive tournament pick. He's projected as the RB8 in DFS, with the RB8V at DK and tying for the RB9V at FD.
Titans Analysis: Chigoziem Okonkwo is an excellent punt at tight end this week. The rookie is first in Yards per Route Run (2.75 Y/RR) and first in Yards After the Catch per Reception (10.4 YAC/REC) among tight ends this year. Okonkwo has also earned a target on 25% of his routes this year.
Okonkwo is a usable punt this week who's a more exciting pick if Treylon Burks remains in the NFL's concussion protocol through this week. The following tweet from Dwain McFarland shows data after Burks left last week's game with a concussion.
Finally, the matchup is good. Tight ends have averaged the ninth-most receiving yards per game (55.3) against the Jaguars.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Spread: KC -9.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs should manhandle the lowly Broncos. Since they can probably play with their food, Isiah Pacheco is a sweet pick. Kansas City's offensive line is sixth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.69), and the Broncos are 17th in rush defense DVOA. So, the context is good for Pacheco.
In addition, the Chiefs have attempted 36 passes and 32 rushes (26 by Pacheco) when leading by at least eight points since Week 10. And, in Week 12, when the Panthers stomped the Broncos, they attempted only four passes and 17 rushes by non-quarterbacks when they led by at least eight points.
Pacheco isn't flawless, but the Chiefs have fed him 16, 15, 22 and 14 rush attempts and three targets in their past four games. He's turned his usage into 324 rushing yards, two touchdowns, three receptions and 33 receiving yards.
Broncos Analysis: Greg Dulcich ended a three-game skid last week by catching six passes for 85 yards. He was tied for the team lead in routes (21) and targeted eight times. In seven games, the rookie tight end has caught a touchdown in one game, had multiple receptions six times, caught at least four passes four times, reached at least 30 receiving yards five times and cleared 80 yards twice. Dulcich is projected as the TE7 in DFS, with the TE1V at DK and tying for the TE6V at FD.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: SF -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 37.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Bucs are 27th in scoring offense and square off with San Francisco's supremely talented defense. There isn't a good reason to use Tampa Bay's players in DFS lineups.
49ers Analysis: The 49ers have an elite defense, but Tom Brady is taking a page out of washed-up Ben Roethlisberger's playbook and getting rid of the ball quickly to avoid taking sacks, potentially at the expense of Tampa Bay having a functioning offense. Brady also isn't putting the ball in harm's way. So, San Francisco will likely lock down the Bucs, but they probably won't pile up a ton of fantasy points.
Game: Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: SEA -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 44.0 Points
Panthers Analysis: Carolina's defense isn't rubbish, contrary to their bargain salary. Instead, the Panthers are 11th in yards allowed per play (5.3) and 14th in scoring defense (22.2). Further, they have 25 sacks and have forced 12 turnovers. Conversely, the opposing quarterback, Geno Smith, has taken multiple sacks in all but one game this year, absorbed 10 sacks in the last three games, turned the ball over in four straight games and had multiple turnovers in his past three games. So, the Panthers have the DST2V at DK.
Seahawks Analysis: Pete Carroll has let Smith cook. Since Seattle's bye in Week 11, they've attempted 71 passes and 36 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. They'll probably stick to their pass-happy approach since their backfield is banged up.
Tyler Lockett is my favorite piece of exposure to Seattle's passing game. He is tied for 18th in Target Share (23.7%) and is 17th in Intended Air Yards (996). Lockett is averaging 5.5 receptions and 69.7 receiving yards per game and scored seven touchdowns this season. Lockett is also on a five-game touchdown streak. Finally, he's atop PFF's Week 14 wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
