Week 13 Monday Night Football Showdown DFS Primer (Saints at Buccaneers)

The Bucs are a slight favorite at home in an NFC South battle against the Saints. Tampa Bay beat their division rivals 20-10 in Week 2. However, expecting them to run it back for the same outcome would be unwise since each team had integral absences, and the Saints had a different starting quarterback. In addition, neither team appears capable of blowing out the other. So, the player suggestions for tonight’s showdown contest are balanced.

Game: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Spread: TB -3.5 Points

Over/Under: 40.5 Points

Saints Analysis: The Saints have been a reasonably pass-happy team lately. According to numberFire, they've attempted 61 passes, 28 rushes by non-quarterbacks and nine by Taysom Hill in neutral game scripts since Week 9.

They've attempted 116 passes overall since Week 9. Chris Olave is the top dog in the passing attack. Since Week 9, he has had 29 targets (25.0% Target Share), 19 receptions, 275 receiving yards, 377 Air Yards and one touchdown. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Olave also led the team in routes and was targeted on a robust 26.4% of them. He's one of the two highest-ceiling options from the Saints.

The other is Alvin Kamara. The do-it-all back has left his fantasy managers and DFS gamers wanting more lately. Kamara hasn't reached paydirt since Week 8, the only week he scored touchdowns in 2022. He's also fallen short of 60 scrimmage yards in two of his last three contests.

Nevertheless, Kamara has a meaningful role in the passing game. Since Week 9, he's had a 17.2% Target Share, 16 receptions and 135 receiving yards while running the club's second-most routes (93). Thus, he's game-script proof, and his ceiling is high, despite his struggles in recent weeks.

Juwan Johnson is out for tonight's game. He's vacating a 12.9% Target Share, 89 routes and three touchdowns since Week 9. Fellow tight end Adam Trautman is a candidate to absorb some of Johnson's work.

Undrafted rookie wide receiver Rashid Shaheed is also an enticing pick. He burst onto the scene with a 44-yard touchdown run in Week 6 and a 53-yard receiving touchdown in Week 7. Since his two-game outburst, Shaheed has had only seven receptions for 111 receiving yards and one six-yard rush in five games. Yet, there has been a reason for optimism about his outlook going forward. Specifically, Shaheed has run the second-most routes (45) on the Saints in their previous two games. As a result, he's a worthy punt.

Buccaneers Analysis: The spotlight has been fixed firmly on Tampa Bay's backfield. However, they've still thrown 118 passes and had 62 rushes by non-quarterbacks in their last three games. So, Tom Brady is the key to Tampa Bay's offense.

Brady has passed for multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games and averaged 261.3 passing yards per game since Week 9 (three games since the Bucs were on their bye in Week 11). The G.O.A.T. hasn't been a world-beater. Still, he's not to blame for all of Tampa Bay's problems. The matchup isn't too shabby, either. According to Football Outsiders, the Saints are 16th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) since Week 9. So, Brady is the best selection from the Bucs.

Chris Godwin is nipping at Brady's heels for the honor of being the best choice on the Bucs. Since Week 9, he's led the Bucs in Target Share (23.7%), routes (129), receptions (25), receiving yards (217) and touchdown receptions (two). Godwin is also a better stylistic fit against the Saints than field-stretching running mate Mike Evans. Since Week 9, opponents completed only eight of 22 passes (36.4%) that traveled at least 15 Air Yards for 213 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints.

Evans has also struggled in matchups against cornerback Marshon Lattimore and dubiously got tossed from the Week 2 meeting after getting into a fight. Still, the Saints' ability to limit deep passes and possibly poor protection for Brady are the primary reasons to fade Evans.

So, with stud tackle Tristan Wirfs out, Rachaad White might also be active in the passing attack. The Bucs will probably use a hot-hand approach with White and Leonard Fournette. The situation creates uncertainty about who will lead the backfield in touches.

I'll plant my flag on White, though. Fournette has been ineffective and inefficient this year, opening the door for White to siphon some of his work. The rookie running back hasn't dominated. Yet, White had more than 100 scrimmage yards in his previous two games. Further, Fournette has earned a target on 18.2% of his routes, and White has bested him by doing so on 20.5% of his.

The matchup is also good for Tampa Bay's running backs. Since Week 9, the Saints are 26th in rush defense DVOA. Thus, the volatility and uncertainty in Tampa Bay's backfield are worth investing in.

Julio Jones is the other fun selection from the Bucs. Tampa Bay hasn't run him into the ground. Still, they've fed him a target on 18.7% of his routes since Week 9, resulting in eight receptions for 121 yards and a touchdown. The former all-pro wideout also rushed once for 15 yards last week. Jones isn't the game-changing talent he once was, but he still has something left in the tank.

Final Thoughts: Brady and Godwin are my favorite captain/MVP choices, but Kamara and Olave aren't outlandish options. Balanced lineups are also the most attractive tonight, but a four-to-two build leaning into the favored Bucs is also stellar.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.