NFL Week 16 DFS Lineup Advice: GPP (2022 Fantasy Football)

If you thought the scheduling was weird last week, wait until this week. This is actually a rare occurrence in which most games are played on Saturday, which happens to be Christmas Eve. We have a few games on Sunday, but we’re going to zone in on the Christmas Eve card because that’s where the main slates are on both major sites. We still have 10 games to talk about, so let’s start with the quarterbacks!

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The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 16:

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE): $6,000 vs. NO

It’s been a rough start for Watson in Cleveland, but this guy gets a little better each week. That’s what really matters because this dude went nearly two years without playing. Before that, Watson was one of the best players in fantasy, regularly sitting at $8K on DraftKings. Nothing about his numbers will encourage you to use him, but this dirt-cheap pricing makes him an intriguing GPP option against an average New Orleans defense.

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG): $5,600 at MIN

DJ is my favorite per-dollar quarterback of the week. The matchup with Minnesota is his biggest asset, with the Vikings allowing the most passing yards in the NFL. They’ve been atrocious against quarterbacks all year, and Jones can go nuts against them. DJ is averaging 18 DraftKings points per game, establishing himself as one of the better dual-threat quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s also scored 29 or more fantasy points twice since Week 8, and one of those ceiling games could be in play here.

FanDuel

Justin Fields (QB – CHI): $7,800 vs. BUF

Most people get scared to start quarterbacks against Buffalo, but teams have to throw a ton to keep up with their elite offense. That’s big news for Fields, who’s been a Top-3 quarterback since Week 7. The Chicago signal-caller is actually averaging over 25 FanDuel points per game in that span and is the second-best mobile quarterback outside of Josh Allen. If this team has to throw to keep up with Buffalo, look for Fields to provide elite fantasy production, even if it’s garbage time!

Geno Smith (QB – SEA): $7,600 at KC

Not enough people are discussing Geno’s breakout. This guy has been incredible since being named the starter in Seattle, averaging 19.2 FanDuel points per game. That’s the seventh-highest total on this slate, and you know Geno will have to throw to keep up with the Chiefs. That’s stellar since Kansas City is surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.

In Consideration: Josh Allen (QB – BUF): DK $8,500/FD $9,500 at SEA

Allen is the top-scoring player in fantasy, and he’s a good choice on any slate. The MVP candidate averages 28 DraftKings points per game and shouldn’t have any issues against a 24th-ranked Seattle secondary.

Running Backs

DraftKings

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN): $8,600 vs. HOU

This is not just a GPP option because Henry should be locked into every lineup. This guy has been the RB1 more than any player over the last three years, and one of those ceiling games feels likely here. We say that because Houston ranks dead-last in rushing yards allowed and fantasy points surrendered. This Titans passing attack has also been obliterated by injuries, and we could be looking at 30 touches for King Henry. Amazingly, Henry has at least 200 rushing yards and two touchdowns in each of their last four matchups.

JK Dobbins (RB – BAL): $5,800 vs. ATL

Dobbins has taken over this Baltimore backfield, picking up 13 and 15 carries since his return from injury. He’s also been productive with that workload, picking up at least 120 rushing yards in both of those. This dude has always showcased that ability, and we have to assume his role will rise the deeper we get into the season. Atlanta is an astounding matchup, too, owning a 20th OPRK against opposing backs.

FanDuel

Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): $8,700 vs. NYG

The Giants have been a disaster against opposing running backs. They’re allowing nearly 5.4 yards per carry, the worst mark in the NFL. That’s scary against a stud like Cook, who’s coming off a season-high 25 FanDuel points in his most recent outing. They’ll give Cook his usual 20 carries and five targets, and he should reach 100 yards and a touchdown at ease against such a poor rush defense.

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): $6,700 vs. SEA

McKinnon has looked like the best player in this backfield, but Pacheco is receiving most of the rushing work. He’s got at least 13 carries in six straight games, averaging nearly 80 rushing yards per game. The primary rusher for the best offense in the NFL is quite the fantasy option, making it hard to believe that Pacheco remains below $7K. Seattle is a sensational matchup, too, surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

In Consideration: Jamaal Williams (RB – DET): DK $5,200/FD $6,800 at CAR

Williams has struggled the last two weeks, but he’s still a lock for double-digit carries and a good bet for a handful of goal-line totes as well. We love that against a 24th-ranked Carolina defense.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

DK Metcalf (WR – SEA): $7,100 at KC

Metcalf has always been one of the most talented receivers in football, and it’s scary to think what his role will look like here. Tyler Lockett broke his hand last week, and Geno will force-feed Metcalf targets in his absence. That means double-digit targets should be a breeze, which is fantastic since Metcalf has at least 13 DraftKings points in six straight games. The matchup is the icing on the cake, though, with KC surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.

DJ Moore (WR – CAR): $5,500 vs. DET

Moore has had a down season, but this guy has too much upside to be just $5,500. We’re encouraged that he’s finally playing with Sam Darnold, scoring 18.3 and 23.3 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. He also had 0 fantasy points last week, which shows how volatile this guy can be. Facing Detroit is an excellent way to grab one of those ceiling games, with the Lions owning a 31st OPRK against opposing wideouts.

FanDuel

Amari Cooper (CLE): $6,700 vs. NO

Cooper has had a bounce-back season, but he’s struggled since Watson was reinstated. It’s just a matter of time before these two start clicking because they’re two of the most talented players in our sport. We’re still encouraged that Coop is averaging 12 FD points per game, flashing a 20-point upside on four occasions this year. New Orleans is not a concerning matchup, owning a 19th OPRK against opposing receivers. Not many people will use Coop, but this is a great spot for him to rebound.

Chris Moore (HOU): $6,100 vs. TEN

The Texans passing attack has been abysmal, but Moore is one of the only guys left. Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins are both nicked up right now, forcing Moore to play in 84 percent of the team’s snaps over the last two weeks. He’s also got at least 6.1 FD points in three straight games, averaging 10 fantasy points per game. That might not sound like much, but it’s all you can hope for from a $6K player. It seems likely to duplicate, with Tennessee allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers.

In Consideration: Marquise Goodwin (SEA): DK $4,300/FD $5,800 at KC

Goodwin has been playing in 50-60 percent of the team’s snaps recently and will likely become an every-down player in the absence of Lockett. That means he could be in line for double-digit targets in this tasty matchup.

Tight Ends

DraftKings

Chig Okonkwo (TE – TEN): $3,500, vs. HOU

The Titans have one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL, and it’s even scarier with Treylon Burks, Robert Williams, and Nick Westbrook all nicked up. That’s made Chig one of the focal points of the offense, picking up at least five targets in four straight games. He’s also got at least 31 receiving yards in six consecutive games, and only a few tight ends have done that this season. That makes it hard to believe he’s still just $3,500, especially against a 23rd-ranked Houston defense.

FanDuel

David Njoku (TE – CLE): $5,800 vs. NO

Many people might not realize it, but Njoku has been a Top-5 tight end since Week 3. He’s averaging 10 FD points per game since then, becoming a much more significant part of this offense. He’s also got 22 targets over the last three games, and it’s clear this is one of Watson’s favorite targets. The Saints can be a stingy matchup, but we can’t overlook a role like this from a sub-$6K player.

In Consideration: Travis Kelce (KC): DK $8,000/FD $8,600 vs. SEA

Kelce is lapping the field in the tight end pool. He’s got almost double the fantasy points of the player in second and is a safe play against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Defense/Special Teams

DraftKings

Baltimore Ravens D/ST: $3,200 vs. ATL

The odds tell you everything you need to know about this game. Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a 36-point total. That means Atlanta will have a hard time cracking 20 points, which is no surprise since they rank 28th in total yardage. They looked even worse with Desmond Ridder last week, and this Top-10 Baltimore defense should have no issues containing them.

FanDuel

Cleveland Browns D/ST: $4,100, vs. NO

Here’s another game that Vegas loves. Cleveland enters this game as a 3.5-point favorite, and the game has a 32.5-point total. That’s the smallest total I’ve seen all year, with New Orleans projected for just 15 points. That’s the smallest team total of the week, and it looks even better since Cleveland has 50 combined FD points over the last three weeks.

In Consideration: Tennessee Titans D/ST: DK $3,600/FD $4,700, vs. HOU

Tennessee enters this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 40-point total. That means Houston is projected to score just 17 points, which is no surprise since they have one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.