Welcome to Week 15 DFS value plays. With this being the first week of most fantasy football playoffs, there may be some new folks reading this series for the first time. It’s the time of the season in which many are switching gears to DFS as their redraft seasons have ended or are on the verge of doing so.
This article aims to identify key values for both DraftKings and FanDuel to help construct winning lineups. Some of these selections are better utilized in cash contests, while others will be far more suitable for GPP contests.
Settle in and let’s go through this 10-game slate and analyze some potential value targets.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) $5300 vs. LAC
Okay, time for some honesty. This part of the write-up was already complete and it was supposed to be Mike White. But, after consulting with 10 doctors in an attempt to find one who would clear him, he was unsuccessful and now we must move on. This does not mean we cannot be upset about it. And before anyone has the moxie to ask, no this does not put Zach Wilson in the DFS conversation, you heathens.
Moving on.
Let’s talk about a different value that is out there for the taking. Ryan Tannehill has five QB1 performances this season, despite missing two games. That is three more QB1 games than Russell Wilson could muster even with an extra game played. The thing is, most people do not know that Tannehill has had that many good games this season. This, my friends, is advantageous.
Tannehill’s 14.6 DK points per game average is far from awe-inspiring. However, he has hit 19 or more fantasy points in three of his last five games. He is facing a leaky Los Angeles Chargers defense that is admittedly more generous to running backs (*wink wink* Derrick Henry) than quarterbacks, but can still be beaten. The Chargers have their full complement of weapons back on the field and will be able to score, forcing Tannehill to drop back more often. Let’s also not forget that Tannehill does have some rushing upside from time to time.
Do not be surprised if Tannehill is able to sneak into another sneaky back-end QB1 performance this week quietly.
FanDuel
Andy Dalton (QB – NO) $6700 vs. ATL
Truthfully, the argument that this team would be better off with Jameis Winston under center does hold some merit. However, it is difficult to ignore that Dalton has played some good football and been streamable in the right matchups for fantasy purposes. He has finished as a QB2 or better in seven of his 10 games, and a QB1 in two of them. While the risk of Taysom Hill capitalizing on Dalton’s success and vulturing scores does exist, the matchup is enough to tip the needle — in at least a few contrarian lineups — for GPP contests.
The Falcons’ defense is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and surrendering an average of 260.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game. Dalton has had three multi-touchdown games this season, two of which have occurred against bottom 10 pass defenses. The Falcons have allowed multiple touchdown passes in six of 13 games.
Is it comfortable dropping Dalton into DFS lineups? No. Is he a matchup-agnostic quarterback that can be relied on for both floor and upside? Also…no. But, he can be an upside play in the right matchup, and against a Falcons defense that is generous and an offense that is predictably going to rely on their run game, he is the type of GPP quarterback that can offer a nice return on investment.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC) $5900 vs. HOU
There are a couple of different facets that make this a strong play at cost for this slate of games. The first of which has to do with Pacheco’s role in this offense. So many people may simply look at Jerrick McKinnon’s blow-up game last week and arrive at the conclusion that he is the better play. False. McKinnon is the passing downs back while Pacheco is the early down grinder. That was on display in Week 14 when the Broncos forced a more neutral game script making McKinnon the more involved player. Still, despite the game script, Pacheco still handled 13 carries to McKinnon’s six. Meanwhile, McKinnon saw a season-high nine targets to Pacheco’s three.
The second point that should be brought up is the matchup. The Texans are allowing the most fantasy points to the position, including an average of 141.1 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per contest. Last week, they allowed both Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot to finish as RB1s. Their offense will struggle to keep pace with Mahomes and company, making garbage time clock-killing mode a juicy opportunity for Pacheco to rack up carries.
Lastly, volume and production. He has finished as an RB2 every week since Week 11 and is averaging 16 carries for 78 rushing yards per game.
Pacheco could end up on the dangerous side of chalky, so he is preferred in cash games, but still can be utilized in GPPs for multi-lineup players.
FanDuel
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) $7800 vs. CHI
I mentioned Miles Sanders on a recent Sirius XM appearance as being quite the troll. He was quoted as saying “Don’t draft me in fantasy.” Since then he has put up the best fantasy season of his career with no signs or hints of slowing down. Already over 1,000 yards on the ground and with his first double-digit touchdown total, he faces a Bears defense that can and has been run on.
The Midway Monsters are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and surrendering an average of 114 rushing yards and 1.1 rushing touchdowns per contest.
Meanwhile, Sanders is averaging 15.6 rush attempts and 82.1 rushing yards per game. He has finished with at least one rushing touchdown in each of his last three games and there is zero reason to expect that trend to stop this week.
Sanders’ value this week in a plus matchup is no industry secret, so expect him to be somewhat chalky. For that reason, he is a better play in cash games due to an expected high ownership percentage. Chalk or not, he is worth putting in lineups for this slate.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Mike Williams (WR – LAC) $6300 vs. TEN
In his first game back from a 2.9 game absence, Mike Williams casually reminded people of what a wrecking-ball kind of receiver he can be. Despite notching only a 12.8% target share, he finished with six catches for 116 receiving yards and a score. Most of which were bully ball at its finest, including a 55-yard strike from the resurging Justin Herbert.
The Tennesse Titans are allowing the most fantasy points to the position and surrendering 191.4 receiving yards per contest. Derrick Henry will be heavily utilized against a nearly non-existent rush defense which could lead to a more back-and-forth kind of game. Herbert will once again be called upon to drop back often and Williams will be facing a lot of Roger McCreary who is allowing a 72% catch rate in coverage.
In a matchup that could creep beyond the 46.5 over/under, Williams is in an excellent spot to outperform his salary. He can be treated as a WR2 with WR1 upside in a game that could offer plenty of scoring.
FanDuel
Nelson Agholor (WR – NE) $5400 vs. LV
If you are strictly a GPP contest player then you might want to move right along and skip this section. We are digging a little deeper for a value play with this selection, but there is a method to this madness. DeVante Parker has already been ruled out and Jakobi Meyers is listed as questionable. With both missing last week, Agholor saw ten targets. While it only added up to five receptions for 32 yards, the opportunity share should remain high in this game.
The Raiders remain a friendly defense for both quarterbacks and wide receivers, giving up the 13th-most fantasy points to receivers. They’re allowing 163.5 receiving yards per game to the position.
This is not a high-floor type of play, it is a dirt cheap way to get a lot of targets based on the matchup and the missing pieces from the Patriots’ offense which also happens to be facing a myriad of questionable tags for their running back stable as well. This is a cheap homerun swing that at the very least has target volume scribbled all over it.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN) $3600 vs. ARI
Russell Wilson has been ruled out for this game, despite clearing concussion protocol. Joining him on the sideline will be Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton, all while K.J. Hamler rests on injured reserve. The pond of pass-catchers is all but dried up leaving Jerry Jeudy and Greg Dulcich as the primary reads for Brett Rypien.
The fact that the Cardinals have been ignoring the tight end position annually only bolsters the potential for the rookie tight end, who has seen eight targets in back-to-back games. Arizona is allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends.
The matchup is there, the targets are there, and more people are going to be oddly scared off by the lack of Russell Wilson under center. Dulcich represents a low-risk play with opportunity-based upside based on his current salary.
FanDuel
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN) $5100 vs. LAC
Okonkwo has acclimated himself very well over the second half of the season. However, his value is entirely tied to personnel. When Treylon Burks is healthy and in the lineup, Chig has had an 8.2% target share. When Burks is out of the lineup, that target share bumps up to 15.4% and Burks has been declared out for this game.
Over his last three games, he has seen 16 targets, 148 receiving yards, and one score.
The Chargers are allowing an average of 54.4 receiving yards to tight ends but remain a little more stingy with allowing touchdowns.
In a game that could feature a little more passing, Okonkwo is an affordable dart throw best utilized in GPP contests.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.
