Week 13 is upon us, and with only two teams on bye (CAR and ARI), there is plenty of talent to choose from when building rosters.
This weekly series aims to pick some of the better plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel based on the probability of outperforming their respective salaries.
Let’s just jump right in.
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Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC) $5,900 vs. DET
Trevor Lawrence is quietly putting together a good season for fantasy purposes and has also been useful for DFS contests. Lawrence is averaging the ninth-highest fantasy points per game in DK’s scoring format among quarterbacks on this slate. Through 11 games, he has topped 20 DK points five times. This week he draws the most friendly defense for quarterbacks in the Detroit Lions.
The Lions allow the most fantasy points to the quarterback position this season. On average, they are surrendering 271.7 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. They also give up an average of 45.5 rushing yards to quarterbacks, and Lawrence can move when called upon to do so.
With a 51.5 over/under, it is one of the highest projected scoring games on the slate. There is plenty of potential for Lawrence to have a big game for the modest salary and in a game that could have plenty of back-and-forth action.
FanDuel
Mike White (QB – NYJ) $6,900 vs. MIN
Mike White came out firing last week. The result was 315 passing yards, three scores, and 24.8 FanDuel points. For those who remember, we saw him flash in a few starts last season before self-imploding. In last week’s win over the Bears, White kept it fairly simple. Per PFF, his average depth of target was only 5.9 yards. Focus on short completions and let your receivers make some plays. It worked well against the Bears’ defense, and there is little reason to be concerned about the Vikings’ pass defense.
The Vikings allow an average of 293.3 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per contest. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 20.0 fantasy points against them which is the fourth-highest in the league.
White is in a position to recreate the success he had last week. Expect him to pick up where he left off, not challenge deep often, keep it short and simple and let his playmakers do the work. Between matchup and salary, he is a strong GPP play this week.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) $5,900 vs. CLE
After two straight disappointing outings, Dameon Pierce is in a position to get back to relevance in a home game against the Cleveland Browns. After putting up seven straight games of double-digit DK points, Pierce has had back-to-back terrible outings. In those two games, he had 15 total carries for an embarrassing 16 rushing yards. Gross. Yet, this will drive his ownership percentage down, making him a viable target for GPP contests in the right matchup.
This is that matchup. The Cleveland Browns are one of the few teams worse than the Texans at allowing production to running backs. To date, they’re allowing an average of 116 rushing yards and 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game. With the spotty quarterback play recently, the Texans should come out running the football early, giving Pierce plenty of opportunity unless the game gets out of hand.
Pierce is not a week winner with the low roster percentage, but he can be a healthy contributor for GPP contests this week.
FanDuel
Aaron Jones (RB – GB) $7,400 vs. CHI
Neither Aaron Jones nor A.J. Dillon carries an injury designation heading into their matchup against the Chicago Bears. In their last meeting, Jones erupted for 132 rushing yards, 38 receiving yards, and a pair of touchdowns. He finished as the overall RB2 that week. He has been fairly consistent this season, averaging 14.2 FD points per game and scoring double-digit fantasy points in seven of 12 games played.
The difference between this meeting and their last is the Bears’ defense has lost two of their most prominent pieces. They’re giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position and allowing an average of 113.1 rushing yards, 1.1 rushing touchdowns, and 32.9 receiving yards per contest.
Jones is locked in for cash games and can also be used in GPP contests. With his prowess as a receiver, the game script has little effect on his opportunity share. Fire him up.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
DK Metcalf (WR – SEA) $6,700 vs. LAR
DK Metcalf has posted 13 or more DK points in four of his last five games and solidified himself as Geno Smith‘s preferred target. Metcalf is averaging 61 receiving yards per game and has 161 combined over his last two games.
Thus far this season, he is maintaining a target share of just over 26% at 8.4 per game. Inside the 20-yard line, his market share jumps up to 40.9%, which leads the position.
The Rams are allowing an average of 115.7 receiving yards per game this season and have allowed four receivers 100 or more yards. With his explosive nature, Metcalf is poised to be a reliable WR2 type of play with upside at the cost.
FanDuel
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) $6,600 vs. MIN
This article is supposed to focus on sifting through the numbers to find the values, not stacking options. I know. Well, this week and this particular matchup represent an opportunity for both. Garrett Wilson’s quick acclimation to the pro level has only been held back by quarterback play. Thus far, he has had three top-12 finishes among wide receivers. All three were with a different quarterback. In Week 2, he was the WR6 with Joe Flacco. In Week 9, he was the WR11 with Zach Wilson. And most recently, he finished as the WR2 with Mike White. The talent is there.
The Vikings’ defense poses little threat to stopping big plays, meaning Wilson should again have opportunities for chunk yardage plays. They are allowing 197.5 receiving yards and .8 touchdowns to receivers this season.
His bargain pricing will attract other players, so keep in mind that his rostership percentage won’t be as low as last week.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
George Kittle (TE – SF) $5,000 vs. MIA
The Dolphins have been an impressive offense this season. They are the sixth-highest in the NFL in points per game (25.6) and have averaged 34.7 points per game over their last three. They have multiple ways they can score and a young quarterback that has been nothing short of impressive.
The 49ers’ defense is allowing the fewest points per game to teams (15.7) and have only allowed 8.7 points per game over their last three.
This game could get interesting. The Dolphins will find ways to score and put Jimmy Garopollo in a position to throw more. One of the Dolphins’ defensive weaknesses is the tight end position. They’re allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position.
Kittle’s usage has been frustrating for DFS purposes. He has been held under 30 receiving yards four times in nine games played. This game is set up for Kittle to outperform his salary. He can be used in both cash and GPP contests.
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT) $5,900 vs. ATL
When picking tight ends for DFS, it becomes either pay up or punt and look for the possibility of a touchdown. One of the factors is matchup; this one has a bit of a misconception about it. It is not the most friendly matchup nor the worst for the position. This is a volume pick and sifting through the averages.
Freiermuth is second on the team in total targets and actually averages a higher targets per snap percentage than Diontae Johnson. He has the fifth-most targets of all tight ends this season. The game plan will not deviate too far from Freiermuth continuing to see a healthy percentage of the targets.
The Falcons allow the second-most targets and the sixth-most yards to the position. They have not allowed many touchdowns, as teams primarily attack them on the ground. The Falcons have only allowed two touchdowns to tight ends all season. For the bargain cost based on the expected target volume, this is a solid value play, and as always, with tight ends not named Kelce/Andrews…just pray for the score.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.