The last two weeks have been my two best weeks of the season. It’s tough to put a finger on why this has been my best stretch, but being so deep into the year surely plays a factor. I do my best work when there are larger sample sizes because I really feel like we have a great read on what these offenses look like right now. With that in mind, let’s dive into this Week 13 card!
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The players below are ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 13:
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Joe Burrow (CIN): $6,900 vs. KC
This game has shootout written all over it. The Chiefs sit at the top of almost every offensive statistic, and the Bengals are one of the only offenses that can match up. Joey B is averaging 27 DraftKings points per game across his last six outings and clobbered the Chiefs in their two matchups last season. In fact, Burrow had 696 yards and six touchdowns in their two meetings. That’s no surprise since Kansas City is surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): $5,900 at DET
Don’t look now, but this former top pick is starting to get going. Lawrence comes into this matchup scoring at least 17 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. He’s also coming off a season-high 29 DK points in his most recent outing and is clearly loving life with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. Facing Detroit is the best part of this, though, allowing the most fantasy points to opposing signal-callers this season.
FanDuel
Justin Herbert (LAC): $8,100 at LVR
It’s been a “down” year for Herbert, but he is still one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Injuries to his primary weapons have really slowed him down, but he’s still compiled 49 combined FanDuel points over the last two games. That’s the stud we saw last season, and he should keep that form going against the Raiders. Las Vegas owns a 31st OPRK against opposing quarterbacks this season, with Herbert scoring at least 21 FD points in all five career meetings.
Derek Carr (LV): $7,300 vs. LAC
This Raiders-Chargers game looks like a shootout too. These young quarterbacks love to sling the ball around, with Carr scoring at least 18 FanDuel points in four straight fixtures. That’s all you can hope for from a $7K player, especially since he’s attempted at least 36 passes in all of those. Getting to face the Chargers is far from concerning, surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year.
In Consideration: Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): DK $5,700/FD $7,000 at MIA
Jimmy G can usually just throw the ball a few times en route to a win, but this game is expected to be high-scoring. Miami has the top offense in the NFL, and San Fran will have to throw to keep up with them.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Nick Chubb (CLE): $8,000 at HOU
Chubb is not necessarily a GPP play, but he needs to be used in everyone’s lineup. This is simply the best pure runner in the NFL, totaling 1,039 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season. This horse is impossible to take down, and the Texans have no chance of taming him. Houston ranks dead-last in both fantasy points allowed and rushing yards surrendered this season. They’re lapping the field in that statistic, and Chubb should get all the work he can handle as a monster favorite.
Gus Edwards (BAL): $5,400 vs. DEN
The Ravens’ backfield can be infuriating to figure out, but Edwards has been the guy when healthy. He’s picked up 16 carries in two of his three games, recording at least 52 rushing yards in all three outings. He’s also got three touchdowns, and Kenyan Drake is invisible in this offense when Gus the Bus is running at full capacity. Denver is not a daunting matchup either, allowing Carolina’s lackluster backfield to total 185 rushing yards last week.
FanDuel
David Montgomery (CHI): $7,000 vs. GB
With Kahlil Herbert on IR, this is Montgomery’s backfield now. He’s played in 74 percent of the team’s snaps since the injury, taking almost every carry available. That’s led to Mont combining for 32.4 FanDuel points in that two-game span. That’s the stud we’ve become accustomed to, and that sort of workload makes him impossible to fade against Green Bay. The Packers allowed 363 rushing yards on Monday night and are facing the top rushing team in the NFL here.
Dameon Pierce (HOU): $6,500 vs. CLE
People are panicking about Pierce after the last two weeks, but that makes him an excellent GPP option. This guy is still a stud, scoring at least 14 FD points in six of his previous seven games before this mini-slide. We expect him to recapture that form here because he faces a Cleveland team allowing the second-most FD points to opposing backs this season.
In Consideration: Jamaal Williams (DET): DK $6,000/FD $7,500 vs. JAX
Anytime you think Detroit will get goal-line caries, Williams needs to be in consideration. He’s leading the NFL with 12 touchdowns and should be in line for a few goal-line carries here against one of the worst teams in the league.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Keenan Allen (LAC): $6,500 at LVR
We had Keenan in here last week, and we’re going right back to the well. In fact, he’s going to be in here every week until he’s $7,000. That’s the player we’ve seen for five years now, ranked Top-10 in every receiving category since 2017. Injuries have derailed his statistics this season, but we’re ecstatic that he posted a season-high 89 percent snap share in Week 12. He’s a guarantee for double-digit targets with that sort of role, and we’re not concerned about him facing a 26th-ranked Raiders secondary.
Courtland Sutton (DEN): $5,500 at BAL
With Jerry Jeudy sidelined, Sutton is the man in Denver. This is one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but we love that he has at least five catches and 66 yards in three straight games. He’s also averaging 8.8 targets per game in that span and should never be this cheap with that sort of role. Facing Baltimore is beautiful, too, owning a 27th OPRK against opposing receivers. Denver will also likely be playing catch-up, and that should send more targets Sutton’s way.
FanDuel
A.J. Brown (PHI): $8,100 vs. TEN
Brown has become a beast since joining the Eagles. He was being held back by the Titans through his first few years, and you know he wants to put it to them here. He’s averaging 13.4 FanDuel points per game this season and has flashed a 37-point ceiling. That’s one of the highest in the NFL, and we love that in a revenge game against a 31st-ranked Titans secondary.
Van Jefferson (LAR): $5,900 vs. SEA
Somebody in LA needs to catch the ball. This team will likely lose every game from here on out, and we anticipate Van leading the way in snap share and targets. He played a season-high 87 percent of the snaps last week and could see double-digit targets with Allen Robinson and Cooper Kupp both sidelined. He’s also got a touchdown in two of the last three games, and it’s tough to find this sort of role from a sub-$6K player. Not to mention, Seattle sits 24th in passing yards allowed.
In Consideration: Robert Woods (TEN): DK $4,300/FD $5,600 at PHI
The Titans will have to throw to keep up with the Eagles. With Woods being the top target in Tennessee, he could be looking at double-digit targets in this spot. He’s cheap and risky, but that’s why he’s a GPP option.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
David Njoku (CLE): $3,900 at HOU
I’m excited to see Njoku play with Deshaun Watson. This beast of a tight end was playing in nearly 90 percent of the team’s snaps through the first six weeks but was derailed by an injury. The good news is that he played in 81 percent last week and looks in line to be back to his every-down role. That’s huge since he’s been a top-5 tight end since Week 2, averaging 12.8 DraftKings points per game since then.
FanDuel
Travis Kelce (KC): $8,400 at CIN
Is it even possible to fade Kelce? This guy never gets the ownership he deserves because he should be a free space in everyone’s lineup. He’s averaging 18.4 FanDuel points per game this year, and no other tight end is averaging more than 12 FD points per game. That’s awesome since this game has shootout potential, with Kelce combining for 32 FD points in their two matchups last season.
In Consideration: Tyler Higbee (LAR): DK $3,700/FD $5,300, vs. SEA
This one horrifies me, but someone needs to catch the ball in LA. Kupp and Robinson are both out for the year, and it should force Higbee into a huge role. It remains to be seen if his quarterback can do that, but we certainly don’t mind that Seattle surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Seattle Seahawks D/ST: $3,600 at LAR
It sounds strange to say, but the Rams have the worst offense in the NFL. They’ve lost Matthew Stafford, Kupp, and Robinson over recent weeks and rank dead last in almost every rushing category. That makes any D/ST a good play against them, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season.
FanDuel
Baltimore Ravens D/ST: $4,500 vs. DEN
This Denver offense is a joke. They’ve scored the fewest points in the NFL, and things seem to be getting worse every week. That’s bad news against Baltimore, averaging 8.6 FD points per game this year. The oddsmakers love them here, too, entering this matchup as an 8.5-point favorite in a game with a 38-point total. That has Denver as the lowest projected offense on this slate!
In Consideration: Cleveland Browns D/ST: DK $4,000/FD $5,000, at HOU
The Browns are the top-priced D/ST on the board, and it’s easy to understand why. Houston has a bottom-three offense in every metric and will surely struggle against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.
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Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – which helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
