Week 15, I can’t believe the season is nearing the end already. Before we know it, we aren’t going to have any real football to watch anymore… but we aren’t there yet so let’s dive into this weekend’s main slate…
Quarterback
DraftKings
Mike White (QB – NYJ) vs. DET $5,400
The Lions are 22nd in pass defense DVOA on the season, but they have been especially bad over the last four games. I’m going to mention this stat again when I get to wide receivers, but I’ll let my friend Ryan McDowell tell you now…
Week 15, I can’t believe the season is nearing the end already. Before we know it, we aren’t going to have any real football to watch anymore… but we aren’t there yet so let’s dive into this weekend’s main slate…
Quarterback
DraftKings
Mike White (QB – NYJ) vs. DET $5,400
The Lions are 22nd in pass defense DVOA on the season, but they have been especially bad over the last four games. I’m going to mention this stat again when I get to wide receivers, but I’ll let my friend Ryan McDowell tell you now…
Others to consider: Mac Jones (NE) $5,000
FanDuel
Andy Dalton (QB – NO) vs. ATL $6,700
Yuck, I can’t believe I just typed out Dalton’s name, I’ll be right back, I need to go take a shower… Okay, I’m back. The Falcons are 29th in pass defense DVOA and are tied with the Steelers giving up the fifth most points to wide receivers. The Saints are also at home where they tend to play much better. Chris Olave is going to be a popular option at wide receiver, stacking him with Dalton isn’t the worst thing you can do.
Others to consider: Mike White (NYJ) $7,000
Running Back
DraftKings
Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC) @ HOU $5,200
McKinnon has proven to be quite useful of late, and this isn’t a point-chasing situation where I think he can repeat what he did last week. This is more of a volume trend that we’ve seen over the last two weeks, as Scott Barrett aptly points out below. It also doesn’t hurt that the Texans are 27th in run defense DVOA and give up the most fantasy points to running backs.
Others to consider: Latavius Murray (DEN) $5,100, Rachaad White (TB) $5,400, Zonovan Knight (NYJ) $5,300
FanDuel
Najee Harris (RB – PIT) @ CAR $6,600
Harris hasn’t been great all season, but he has been playing better of late and it was nice to see him get three targets in the passing game last week — he had only one target in each of his previous two games before last week. This week he gets a Carolina team that comes in ranked 19th in rush defense DVOA and has allowed an average of 128.8 rushing yards per game on the season.
Others to consider: Damien Harris (NEP) $6,500, Latavius Murray (DEN) $6,500
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) vs. DET $6,000
As I mentioned above, The Lions have given up nine top-24 wide receiver games over the last four games. That means there were at least two in every game — and one game had three! The Lions are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home, but they can still put up some points, forcing the Jets to throw it a little more than they want, thus helping Garrett get more targets.
Others to consider: Jakobi Meyers (NE) $4,700, Elijah Moore (NYJ) $3,600
FanDuel
Michael Gallup (WR – DAL) @ JAX $5,700
This pick is a bit touchdown dependent which is why I like him more on FanDuel than I do DraftKings. Two weeks ago Gallup caught two touchdown passes, and if you watched the game last week against Houston, Gallup actually had a touchdown catch in that game as well — but a great play by the DB to rip the ball out of his hands before he could fully secure it kept him from having a much better fantasy day. At $5,700 you don’t need a whole lot for him to reach value, and against the Jags’ 30th-ranked pass defense, I think he can have a good fantasy day.
Others to consider: Zay Jones (JAX) $6,300, Drake London (ATL) $6,300
Tight End
DraftKings
Cade Otton (TE – TB) vs. CIN $2,900
The Bucs as a team had a rough outing last week against an elite 49ers defense, and while Otton didn’t have a good fantasy day (no Buc did) he did get 5 targets at least. The Bengals’ defense is actually ranked in the top 10 and while they have allowed the fifth most targets and catches to tight ends, they have just done a really good job limiting touchdowns. Otton is cheap enough that he is worth the risk with his volume.
FanDuel
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE – TEN) @ LAC $5,100
The Chargers actually match up quite well with the Titans in the secondary, but Okonkwo is cheap enough that it doesn’t matter. Much like last week, you only need him to fall into the endzone. Something he is very capable of doing.
Others to consider: Cole Kmet (CHI) $5,300
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