It’s getting down to the nitty-gritty in fantasy football! A lot of seasonal leagues have their semifinals this week (I’m still alive in #SFB12 – woot), and DFS is still going strong. This is the time of year when some teams just play it safe with injured players, so let’s see what the pricing pool has for us to exploit. Remember, the main slate is on Saturday (Christmas Eve) this year!

Quarterback

Geno Smith (QB – SEA) ($5,800) @ KC

Geno Smith had one down game against the 49ers (arguably the best defense in the NFL), and DraftKings dropped his price back to $5,800. I’m all over him this weekend at that price. Seattle is in absolute must-win mode at 7-7, and the game script favors the pass, as KC is favored by 9.5 points early on. The Seahawks have the seventh-highest pass rate in the NFL, and KC has allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing QBs. The loss of Tyler Lockett hurts, but the game plan shouldn’t change.

Gardner Minshew (QB – PHI) ($4,800) @ DAL

Jalen Hurts is highly questionable for this weekend with a sprained shoulder, and DraftKings was not quick enough to react to this news. Technically, Hurts isn’t out yet, but I see no reason Philly would risk him when they’ve almost got the #1 seed locked up. Enter Gardner Minshew. While he doesn’t offer near the upside that Hurts does, Minshew is an able NFL quarterback who is priced as a backup. The matchup against Dallas’ pass rush isn’t good, but Philly has a top-5 OL, and Minshew’s price tag allows you carte blanche at some of the skill positions. He also still has AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and (maybe) Dallas Goedert to throw to.

Running Backs

Before we get to the plays, I need to point out one stat. Over his last four games against Houston, Derrick Henry has averaged 223 rushing YPG and has nine TDs. He’s not a value at $8,600, but he’s the premier pay-up.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO) ($6,800) @ CLE

Don’t let the snowflake next to Alvin Kamara’s DraftKings score last week sway you. Kamara returned to full usage with a 66% carry share in Mark Ingram‘s absence, and Ingram will remain on IR. The Saints are amazingly still in the hunt for the playoffs at 5-9, and Kamara’s price did not move this week. He has the same floor (and a much higher ceiling) against Cleveland, who has allowed 5.1 YPC and the third most FPPG to RBs.

Jerick McKinnon/Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC) ($5,900/$5,700) vs. SEA

It’s hard to predict this early where the ownership will land on these two, but honestly, both are underpriced for their roles within the Chiefs’ offense. Pacheco would seem to be the safe choice, with the game script being what it is (KC -9.5). He’s the early-down banger and rushed for 5.7 YPC last week in a similar spot against Houston. Pacheco’s downside is that he’s TD-dependent to hit a ceiling since he’s not involved in the passing game at all. This is where Jerick McKinnon comes in. Over the past two weeks, he has had 17 targets, and ten carries last week at 5.2 YPC. Seattle has allowed 5.1 YPC and the second-most FPPG to opposing RBs, so both will be viable in all formats this weekend.

Wide Receivers

Chris Moore (QB – HOU) ($4,700) @ TEN

This pick once again depends on the status of Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. If both sit, Chris Moore is still WAY too cheap for his expected role. Moore has 19 targets over the last two weeks (33% target share), and Tennessee is the new “nuts matchup” for passing games. They’ve allowed the most FPPG and the highest YPC to opposing WRs, and seven of their starters are once again questionable. If Cooks and/or Collins do play, this blurb can apply to them as well.

Marquise Goodwin (WR – SEA) ($4,300) @ KC

With Tyler Lockett sidelined, Marquis Goodwin should slide right into the WR2 role for Seattle, and it’s a great spot to take his value. Goodwin was already sporting a 50% snap share which we should see rise exponentially, and the Chiefs have allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing WRs. The game script also favors a lot of throwing from Seattle, so keep DK Metcalf’s name on the back burner.

Tight End

Chig Okonkwo (TE – TEN) ($3,500) vs HOU

Chig Okonkwo is becoming an every-week value play at the TE position, and we should expect him to be quite popular. Even though his price has risen $800 over the past two weeks, Chig is still too cheap for his growing role in the Tennessee offense. Be aware that he’s still running fewer routes than fellow TE Austin Hooper, but Okonkwo now has 21 targets over the past four games, and they’re manufacturing big plays for him. Houston has also allowed the ninth most FPPG to opposing TEs.