NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 15 (2022 Fantasy Football)

The bye weeks are over, the playoff push is on and DFS continues for another full week of action! We still only have ten games to tackle on this main slate due to the annual late-season Saturday action. The injury bug that hit the late games this past week has already opened up some values for us to exploit.

Let’s get down to it and keep that winning on DraftKings going in Week 14! As always, I’m available on Twitter @jac3600.

QUARTERBACK

Mike White (NYJ): $5400 vs DET

Poor White got absolutely brutalized by the Buffalo defense on Sunday, sustaining enough injuries to land him in the hospital. Right now, he’s tentatively expected to suit up this weekend against Detroit and should have a much cleaner pocket against the Lions who are in the bottom three in sack percentage. They’ve also been the nuts matchup for QBs this season, allowing the most FPPG and the second-highest YPA to the position. If White happens to miss the game, this blurb can also apply to Joe Flacco who is $5100.

Desmond Ridder (ATL): $5200 @ NO

The Falcons are finishing the year out with Ridder as their QB, which has drawn immediate attention from the fantasy community. This will be a tough sell in cash contests, but you could do a lot worse for upside in GPPs. Ridder is a known dual-threat QB with 3,334 passing yards and 2,180 rushing yards in his college career. The matchup isn’t great but not terrible either. The Saints allow the 13th most FPPG to QBs but also rank 11th in sack rate. Ridder showed some promise in the preseason, completing 60.7% of passes and rushing for 7.25 YPC.

RUNNING BACK

Alvin Kamara (NO): $6800 vs ATL

Kamara’s box scores do not scream “play me” by any stretch of the imagination, but there’s room for optimism in week 15. He is fully rested coming off the bye, and Mark Ingram is probably finished for the rest of the year with an MCL injury. Kamara’s price has dipped all the way to $6800 on DraftKings which is a low he hasn’t reached since Week 6, and the Falcons allow the fourth-most receptions out of the backfield. The Saints have traded away their top pick next year to the Eagles, so there’s no incentive to tank/rest players here.

Isiah Pacheco (KC): $5900 @ HOU

Pacheco has 86 touches over his last five games, but DraftKings refuses to price him above 6k which leaves so much room for value. It was Jerick McKinnon who broke the box score for KC last game, but Pacheco remained the lead back on early downs and even saw a season-high three targets in the passing game. The matchup is the best there is against the Texans, who have allowed the most FPPG to RBs and 17 rushing TDs in 14 games.

WIDE RECEIVER

Keenan Allen/Mike Williams (LAC): $6800/$6300 vs TEN

I was deep-diving stats on these two receivers trying to figure which one was the better value at his price tag for the week, and it became increasingly clear that BOTH Allen and Williams are egregiously underpriced for their talent and matchup. The Chargers are in must-win mode every game, and they get a date at home with the Titans who have allowed the second-highest YPC and the second most FPPG to WRs. Allen has 28 targets over the last two games and is PPR gold, and Williams’ big play ability (19.6 YPC last week) sets up beautifully for him as well.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ): $6000 vs DET

Wilson is lapping the rest of the Jets’ WRs as far as targets, catches, TDs and air yards share goes. It’s absolutely insane that his price still doesn’t move, and Wilson is a name we should locking into cash and going overweight on in GPPs as well. The Detroit secondary has allowed the second most receiving TDs and the fourth most FPPG to WRs. They also just got cooked by Justin Jefferson for 11-223-0.

TIGHT END

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN): $3100 @ LAC

#ChigSZN!! Sometimes chalk hurts me as a cash player, because I totally could have saved the $700 off Greg Dulcich last week to go with Okonkwo who is coming on like a wrecking ball at TE. He has 16 targets over the last three weeks while averaging 9.25 YPC. If Treylon Burks returns, there’s definitely more target downside, but the price is right against the Chargers who have allowed the 11th most FPPG to TEs.

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