NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 14 (2022 Fantasy Football)

It’s the last week of byes in the regular season, so things will get nutty when week 15 hits and the slates grow back to full size. There are some notable absences this week (Justin Fields, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, etc.), but DraftKings has presented us with some very interesting prices to exploit.

Let’s keep the winning going in week 14! As always, I’m available on Twitter @jac3600.

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (MIN): ($6100) @ DET

Death, taxes and a matchup against the Detroit Lions in fantasy. While it’s been a nice story that the Lions are putting it together and winning games, they’re still a fantasy sieve. Detroit has allowed the most FPPG to QBs and the highest YPA. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins is fourth in the NFL in passing attempts. DraftKings attempted to price him up from $5700, but they didn’t go far enough. A Cousins/Justin Jefferson stack will be mighty popular, and rightfully so.

Tyler Huntley (BAL): ($5500) @ PIT

Tyler Huntley is a screaming value on DK at $5500 this week. He came on to replace the injured Lamar Jackson to complete 84.4% of his passes and rush for 10-41-1 in a win against Denver’s stout defense. This week Huntley gets the Steelers, who have allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing QBs. Last season Huntley was fourth in rushing YPG in the seven games he played.

Running Back

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL): ($6100) vs. HOU

Obviously, Tony Pollard is shining for Dallas (you can play him at $6700 as well), but Ezekiel Elliott is coming on strong for the Cowboys and should not be priced this much cheaper. Zeke is averaging 4.2 YPC in four games since returning from injury and has also found the end zone three times. Houston is the premiere matchup for opposing RBs this season, even though Nick Chubb didn’t get that memo last week. The Texans have been roasted for 15 rushing TDs, 4.9 YPC and the most FPPG to opposing backs. With Dallas opening as 17-point favorites, both Dallas RBs will likely outstrip their price tags.

D’Andre Swift (DET): ($5800) vs. MIN

Eric Romoff and I were all over Swift last week as a sneaky tournament play, and he delivered big time with a 14-62-1 line, adding four catches for 49 more yards. The big takeaway is that Swift out-carried Jamaal Williams (14-11) and came into the game with no injury designation. Even if Williams regains the hold on the rushing share, Swift still has 14 targets over the past two games. Additionally, the Vikings have allowed the seventh most receptions to opposing RBs. Don’t overthink this one.

Wide Receiver

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): ($7800) vs. MIN

It’s tough to call a $7800 player “mispriced,” but when said player should be upwards of 9k, it deserves a writeup. Over the past six games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 10 targets per game and is the overall WR3 in PPR formats (20.5 DK PPG). Jefferson is a wonderful player. However, there is no way ARSB should be $1200 cheaper, especially against the Vikings, who have given up the fifth-highest YPT and the third-most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Zay Jones (JAX): ($4700) @ TEN

DraftKings has lowered Zay Jones’ price tag by $200 after he was a quasi-chalky bust against the Lions this past week. Zay’s game logs will fluctuate from week to week, but he has 31 targets over the past three games. In that span, Jones also ranks 20th among WRs in FPPG and now gets a second straight matchup against a team that allows the most FPPG to opposing WRs.

Tight End

George Kittle (SF): ($4300) vs. TB

I definitely understand if there’s hesitation in playing George Kittle. The past two have seen him total only five catches for 48 yards, and he’s the TE27 in that span. It also doesn’t help that Brock Purdy is set to take over, and Kittle was an afterthought to him in the 49ers’ win over the Dolphins in week 13. That said, you will never again see a price tag this cheap on one of the most talented TEs in the game. The matchup is excellent, as the Bucs have allowed the third most FPPG to opposing TEs. Even if you’re low on cash, be sure to load up in GPPs, as Kittle has slate-breaking upside.

Cade Otton (TB): ($2800) @ SF

On the other side of the ball in this game, Cade Otton can potentially be that sub-3k TE that cash players always look for (Harrison Bryant was the guy in week 13). Pay attention to Cameron Brate‘s status as the week progresses. If he misses again, you’re getting insane value on Otton, who had 10 targets Monday night against the Saints.