NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Wednesday (12/21)

These next few days are going to be strange. We have 11 games making up this Wednesday card, but we only have two on Thursday. That’s even more bizarre when you see that 28 teams are in action on Friday, getting us ready for the Christmas Eve day off. It’s annoying that the NBA didn’t spread some of those out on Thursday, but it leaves us with a ton to discuss here. With that in mind, let’s look at the schedule!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

• MIL at CLE (CLE -2) O/U: 217
• DET at PHI (PHI -12) O/U: 225
• CHI at ATL (ATL -6.5) O/U: 233.5
• IND at BOS (BOS -9.5) O/U: 232
• GSW at BKN (BKN -11) O/U: NA
• TOR at NYK (NYK -1) O/U: 218
• ORL at HOU (ORL -2) O/U: 223.5
• DAL at MIN (DAL -3.5) O/U: 227.5
• POR at OKC (POR -4) O/U: 234.5
• LAL at SAC (SAC -6) O/U: NA
• CHA at LAC (LAC -6.5) O/U: 225

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Keldon Johnson (back) Questionable
• Wendell Carter (foot) Questionable
• Paul George (knee) Questionable
• Ivica Zubac (knee) Questionable
• Tyrese Maxey (foot) OUT
• Cade Cunningham (shin) OUT
• Clint Capela (calf) OUT
• Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) OUT
• Rudy Gobert (ankle) Questionable
• Jayson Tatum (personal) Questionable
• Gary Trent Jr.)quad) Questionable
• Khris Middleton (knee) Questionable
• Lonzo Ball (knee) OUT
• Tim Hardaway Jr.(illness) Questionable
• Kyle Lowry (knee) Questionable
• Brandon Ingram (toe) Questionable
• Josh Giddey (illness) Questionable
• Jusuf Nurkic (calf) Questionable
• Michal Porter Jr (heel) Questionable
• Jamal Murray (knee) Questionable
• Desmond Bane (toe) OUT
• Devin Booker (groin) Questionable
• Terry Rozier (hip) Questionable
• Anthony Davis (foot) OUT

Core Plays

Joel Embiid (PF/C – PHI): $11,500 DraftKings, $11,900 FanDuel
It’s going to be tough to fade Embiid in this spot. The big man has thrown his hat in the MVP running, averaging 63 DraftKings points per game across his last 13 outings. That absurd stretch looks likely to continue against Detroit’s disastrous defense, who ranks 29th in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. In their last matchup, Joel dropped 65 fantasy points in yet another masterclass.

Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $10,600 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
Dame has carried Portland to one of the best records in the Western Conference, and they’d be even higher if he didn’t get injured. Lillard has scored at least 40 DraftKings points in 15 of 19 games, with two of those being shortened due to injury. He shouldn’t have any problem reaching that 40-point floor against OKC, who rank 28th in points allowed this year. In their matchup on Monday, Dame dropped 44 DraftKings points across 39 minutes.

Jayson Tatum (SG/SF – BOS): $11,000 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
Using players against Indiana has been incredible all year. The Pacers rank 23rd in defensive efficiency and 24th in points allowed. That horrific defense won’t stand up well against one of the MVP favorites, with Tatum averaging 52 DraftKings points per game. That looks even better since JT has at least 53 fantasy points in two of his last three meetings with the Pacers.

Cash Game Considerations

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $12,600 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Luka had a rare dud on Monday, but getting ejected will do that to anyone. The Slovenian has still scored at least 52 DraftKings points in all but three games this year. He’s also posting a league-leading 38 percent usage rate while leading the NBA with 62 DK points per game. Those numbers should be easy to reach against Minnesota, with the T’Wolves surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

LeBron James (SF/PF – LAL): $9,900 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
It’s insane that LeBron continues to play like this in his 20th year. The superstar has scored at least 40 fantasy points in every game this year, generating a 51-point average. We expect that total to be his floor in the future because he will be asked to do more in the absence of Anthony Davis. That’s led to LeBron scoring at least 51 DK points in four straight, and he’ll reach that total against a 27th-ranked Kings defense.

De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC): $8,700 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel
Fox has only had three bad games all year, and two of those were limited because of injury. He’s scored at least 30 DraftKings points in every other game, posting a 45-point average in those 23 outings. That’s the production you usually see from a $9K player, and you know Fox will be feeling it against a Lakers team that owns a 26th OPRK against opposing point guards. They’re also third in pace, and that’s a massive boost for a speedster like Fox.

GPP Targets

Kawhi Leonard (SF/PF – LAC): $7,900 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Don’t look now, but Kawhi is finally starting to find it. It’s been a slow start for the former Finals MVP, but he’s got at least 35 DraftKings points in four straight games. He’s also coming off a season-high 51 DK points in his most recent outing, and we’re ecstatic that his minute total is finally above 30. This was a $10K player in this sort of role in the past, and there’s no chance a 28th-ranked Charlotte defense will slow him down.

Thomas Bryant (C – LAL): $5,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
Bryant has always been a talented big man, and we’re excited that he’s starting in the absence of Anthony Davis. That’s forcing TB into a 30-minute role, and this guy has proven to be a $7K player in that sort of role in the past. He’s got at least 33 DK points in two of three games since taking over this job, and that should be a regular thing in this expanded opportunity. We also don’t mind that Sacramento sits 22nd in defensive efficiency and 27th in points allowed.

Naz Reid (C- MIN): $5,900 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
This is all dependent on the status of Rudy Gobert. If the center is out, Reid is one of the best plays on the board. This center has been a per-minute stud throughout his career, and he’s started three straight games with Gobert and Towns both sidelined. That’s led to Reid scoring at least 52 fantasy points in two of those. Getting 50 fantasy points from a $6K player is ridiculous, and Dallas has one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA.

Value Plays

Markelle Fultz (PG/SG – ORL): $5,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
This guy was a top pick for a reason. Injuries have derailed his career, but it’s nice to see Fultz fully healthy. Fultz has always stuffed the stat sheet when given the opportunity, scoring at least 27 DK points in four straight games. He’s also providing a 37-point average in that span, which is superb for a $6K player. The matchup is the best part of this, though, with the Rockets surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing point guards.

John Collins (PF/C – ATL): $5,700 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Collins has missed the last few weeks because of an ankle issue, but it looks like Atlanta will start him at center as long as Clint Capela remains out. That’s huge for JC’s fantasy value, regularly playing at a $7K level throughout his career. He’s also just shy of a 30-point average, and he should reach that against a Chicago team that owns a 26th OPRK against opposing big men. This guy is just too good to be in this price range, especially with this augmented role.

Drew Eubanks (C – POR): $4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
This play is also dependent on the status of Jusuf Nurkic. When big Nurk is sidelined, Eubanks always starts at center. He’s been excellent in that role over the last two years, averaging 28 DraftKings points per game in his 35 starts since the start of last season. That’s all you can ask for from a sub-$5K player, and we’re obviously not worried about him facing an atrocious OKC defense.

Advantageous Pricing

• Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $10,600 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
• LeBron James (SF/PF – LAL): $9,900 DraftKings, $11,100 FanDuel
• Jalen Duren (C – DET): $4,700 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
• Aaron Nesmith (SG – IND): $4,000 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
• Fred VanVleet (PG/SG – TOR): $8,300 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
• Mithell Robinson (C – NYK): $5,100 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
• Kemba Walker (PG – DAL): $6,300 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
• Austin Rivers (PG/SG – MIN): $3,500 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
• Nick Richards (C – CHA): $4,000 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel

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