It’s the last day of 2022! I hope the year has been a happy, healthy, and fruitful one (especially in the DFS world). We’re ending the year with another Luka night, so value plays will be the key because you’re fading him at your own peril. Happy New Year, and be sure to follow me on Twitter at @jac3600!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Top Plays

Luka Doncic (PG, SG – DAL) ($12,100 DK/$12,400 FD)

Luka Doncic is absolutely on one right now. Over his last five games, the man is averaging 40.4 PPG, 11.8 RPG, 10.4 APG, and 2.2 SPG while playing just about 40 minutes per game. In that span, he also has a 37.9% usage rate, 36.6% rebound rate, and 51.5% assist rate while averaging an insane 78.25 DraftKings PPG. Need more incentives? Tonight’s opponent (San Antonio) is dead last in team defensive efficiency and seventh in pace. Fade at your own risk in cash, and there’s a case to be made that you shouldn’t in GPP either.

Julius Randle (PF, C – NYK) ($10,100 DK/$9900 FD)

RJ Barrett will miss tonight’s game again for the Knicks, and Jalen Brunson is also at risk of sitting again. Over the past two contests without them, Randle has posted a 34.2% usage rate, 34.1% rebound rate, and 27.1% assist rate. In his last five, Randle is averaging 59.9 DK PPG, which really indicates his price still has room to unlock value. If Brunson returns, Randle will see some hits to his rates and may seem overpriced, but right now, he’s the best sidekick to Luka. Houston also ranks 28th in defensive efficiency.

Cash Picks

Jarrett Allen (C – CLE) ($6500 DK/$7500 FD)

Fully priced on FanDuel but oddly mired in the mid-6K on DraftKings, Jarrett Allen looks like a solid combination of floor and ceiling tonight. Cleveland is not hesitating to unleash him with a full complement of minutes each night, and Allen has double-doubled in four of his last six games. Chicago ranks 21st in rebounding rate.

Immanuel Quickley (PG – NYK) ($5700 DK/$6700 FD)

Immanuel Quickley is another player that’s getting appropriately priced on FD but is slow to reach that level on DK. Over the past two games, he’s played 51 and 43 minutes and posted a 24.1% usage rate and 50% assist rate in that span. Houston has allowed the most FPPG to opposing guards, so Quickley is a smash play again if Brunson sits. If Brunson plays, Quickley is still usable, but the ceiling would lower considerably on his assist totals.

Value Plays

Naz Reid (C – MIN) ($4700 DK/$5900 FD)

Yet another instance where the player is a better value on DK, especially since Naz Reid also has PF eligibility on that site. Rudy Gobert should be considered highly questionable to play tonight after sitting out yesterday with an illness. Reid has averaged 1.29 fantasy points per minute and a 24.5% usage rate with Gobert on the shelf. He’s a lock if Gobert sits and fine to use on DraftKings regardless against Detroit, who is 29th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding rate.

Alec Burks (SG, SF – DET) ($4500 DK/$5800 FD)

We’ll have to be a bit more careful than I originally thought with the Alec Burks play, as he still only logged 22 minutes last night, even with all the suspensions. That said, Burks’ price has not moved, and Killian Hayes will still be serving his suspension. After he left the game against Orlando, Burks went out and put up 49.5 DK points in 30 minutes. Minnesota has struggled to contain the perimeter this entire season, so there’s plenty of value to unlock in Burks’ $4500 price tag on DK.

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