NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Friday (12/23)

After a short slate on Thursday, we have a full card here. We actually have all but two teams taking the floor, absorbing 14 games for this Friday card. That’s one of the largest slates of the season, but they’re doing it because everyone is off tomorrow. These sorts of slates can be challenging because there’s so much news out there between 28 teams. Our injury report looks like a grocery list, so let’s look at the schedule and then dive into those injuries!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Schedule and Odds

• SAS at ORL (ORL -6.5) O/U: 227.5
• LAC at PHI (PHI -3) O/U: 216.5
• DET at ATL (ATL -9) O/U: 233
• MIN at BOS (BOS -9) O/U: 232.5
• TOR at CLE (CLE -4.5) O/U: 215.5
• MIL at BKN (BKN -3) O/U: 225.5
• CHI at NYK (NYK -5.5) O/U: 226
• DAL at HOU (DAL -5.5) O/U: 222.5
• IND at MIA (MIA -6.5) O/U: 225
• NOP at OKC (OKC -2) O/U: 232
• POR at DEN (DEN -5) O/U: 234
• MEM at PHX (MEM -2) O/U: 226
• WAS at SAC (SAC -8) O/U: NA
• CHA at LAL (LAL -4) O/U: 235

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros

Injury Report

• Keldon Johnson (back) Questionable
• Wendell Carter (foot) Questionable
• Paul George (knee) Questionable
• Ivica Zubac (knee) Questionable
• Tyrese Maxey (foot) OUT
• Cade Cunningham (shin) OUT
• Clint Capela (calf) OUT
• Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) OUT
• Jayson Tatum (personal) Questionable
• Gary Trent Jr.)quad) Questionable
• Khris Middleton (knee) Questionable
• Lonzo Ball (knee) OUT
• Tim Hardaway Jr.(illness) Questionable
• Kyle Lowry (knee) Questionable
• Brandon Ingram (toe) Questionable
• Josh Giddey (illness) Questionable
• Jusuf Nurkic (calf) Questionable
• Michael Porter Jr.(heel) Questionable
• Jamal Murray (knee) Questionable
• Desmond Bane (toe) OUT
• Devin Booker (groin) Questionable
• Terry Rozier (hip) Questionable
• Anthony Davis (foot) OUT
• Zion Williamson (protocols) OUT
• Brandon Ingram (toe) Questionable
• Russell Westbrook (foot) Questionable
• Evan Mobley (knee) Questionable
• Marcus Smart (illness) Questionable

Core Plays

LeBron James (SF/PF – LAL): $10,900 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel
It’s hard to believe that King James is playing at this level in his 20th year, but he will be tough to fade as long as Anthony Davis remains out. That means LeBron will do everything for this offense, scoring at least 51 DraftKings points in five straight games. That’s right on par with his season average, and we obviously don’t mind that Charlotte owns a 26th OPRK against opposing forwards.

Damian Lillard (PG – POR): $10,000 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel
Dame has been feeling it all season. The point guard has scored at least 30 fantasy points in every game, generating a 46-point average for the year. He’d be closer to 50 fantasy points if it weren’t for a few injury-shortened games, and it looks even better since he has a 70-point upside. The matchup is the best part, with Denver surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. In their two meetings this season, Lillard is averaging over 63 DraftKings points per game!

CJ McCollum (PG/SG – POR): $8,300 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel
Injuries have pummeled this Pelicans team, but it’s allowing McCollum to go nuts in an expanded role. With Zion and Ingram out on Thursday, CJ collected 40 points, eight rebounds, and nine assists in one of the best games of his career. He also took 27 shots and handled the ball on almost every possession, and that’s likely to continue with BI and Zion out again. Facing OKC is outstanding, too, ranked 28th in points allowed.

Cash Game Considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $12,000 DraftKings, $12,200 FanDuel
The Joker got off to a slow start this season, but the two-time reigning MVP is working on a third. The big man has at least 56 DK points in six straight games, scoring 80 or more in half of those. No other player has three 80-point games all year, let alone in a six-game span. That’s no surprise since Jokic is flirting with a 60-point average, and we’re not worried about him facing a 19th-ranked Portland defense.

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $12,500 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
It’s almost impossible to use Jokic and Doncic, but both of these guys are the best cash game options on every slate. The Slovenian point guard has at least 52 DK points in all but two games this season, leading the NBA with 61 fantasy points per game. That’s no surprise since he’s leading the league with a 38 percent usage rate, which makes him tough to fade against Houston. The Rockets allow the most fantasy points to opposing point guards for the third straight year.

Paolo Banchero (SF/PF – ORL): $8,100 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Anytime the Spurs are on the slate, you have to get some exposure against them. The Spurs sit dead last in points allowed and defensive efficiency, allowing monster fantasy lines on a nightly basis. That makes Paolo a phenomenal option as Orlando’s best player, averaging 39 DraftKings points per game in his rookie season. His recent form is even encouraging, scoring at least 35 fantasy points in nine straight games.

GPP Targets

Jonas Valanciunas (PF/C – NOP): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
JV has always been productive when given a chance, but the Pels have been limiting him all season. The resurgence of Larry Nance is the main reason, but it looks like he, Ingram, and Zion will all be out here. In the last two games without those guys, Valanciunas has 106 combined DraftKings points. That’s the stud we’ve seen in the past, and it makes JV about $1,000 too cheap. The matchup is magical, too, with Oklahoma City allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

Al Horford (C – BOS): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
Horford has really struggled over recent weeks, but he’s too good to be this cheap. The veteran is usually around $7K on both sites, and it’s just a matter of time before he gets closer to that. He’s still averaging over 25 fantasy points per game, and we’re encouraged that he’s played at least 33 minutes in four of his last six games. He needs to be $6K in this sort of role, especially against a T’Wolves team that sits 21st in total defense and second in pace.

Markelle Fultz (PG/SG – ORL): $5,800 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Injuries have mauled Markelle’s career, but we’re finally seeing him healthy for the first time since he was drafted with the top pick five years ago. He earned that draft spot for a reason, stuffing the stat sheet in his limited time at this level. He’s now starting at point guard in Orlando, averaging 34 DK points per game across his last five fixtures. That total should be easy to reach against the worst defense in the NBA.

Value Plays

Mitchell Robinson (C – NYK): $5,300 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Robinson has been one of the best per-minute producers throughout his career, and we love that he’s finally playing a 30-minute role as the starting center in NY. That’s allowed Mitch-Rob to score at least 26 DK points in 12 of his last 14 games, posting a 30-point average in that span. That’s superb from a sub-$6K player, and it doesn’t even showcase his 50-point upside. One of those could be in play here, with Chicago sitting bottom-five in defensive efficiency over the last month.

Jalen Duren (PF/C – DET): $5,000 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The Pistons have been in rebuild mode for most of my life, but they’ve stumbled into a gem with Duren. The rookie has been starting for two weeks now, averaging 29 DK points per game across 29 minutes in eight games since capturing that starting role. This 19-year-old kid is only scratching the surface of what he could become, making it hard to believe that Duren is in this $5K price range. The matchup makes it even more mind-boggling, with Atlanta owning a 24th OPRK against opposing big men.

Aaron Nesmith (SG/SF – IND): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
Why is Nesmith still so cheap? This guy has started four of the last five games for Indiana, averaging 27 DK points per game across 28 minutes a night. That’s unbelievable from a $4,300 player, and it’s clear Indiana wants to see what their 2020 first-round pick can bring to the table in an expanded role. Facing Miami is usually challenging, but they own a 28th OPRK against opposing shooting guards this season.

Advantageous Pricing

• Aaron Nesmith (SG/SF – IND): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
• Tobias Harris (SF/PF – PHI): $6,200 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
• Ivica Zubac (C – LAC): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
• Austin Rivers (PG/SG – MIN): $3,800 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
• John Collins (PF/C – ATL): $5,300 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
• Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $5,400 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
• Fred VanVleet (PG – TOR): $8,100 DraftKings, $9,600 FanDuel
• OG Anunoby (SF – TOR): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
• Aleksej Pokusevski (PF – OKC): $4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
• Jaren Jackson Jr.(PF/C- MEM): $6,500 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel
• Santi Aldama (PF/C – MEM): $4,000 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel
• Austin Reaves (SG/SF – LAL): $4,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel

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