Welcome to Monkey Knife Fight. Monkey Knife Fight is one of the more intriguing entrants in the DFS arena. Instead of the traditional salary cap based contests, Monkey Knife Fight allows DFS players to put their fantasy football knowledge and predictive powers to the test.
They offer fantasy point and stat-based contests. Perhaps the most appealing of all of their offerings is the ‘More or Less’ contests. In these contests, you can choose whether a player will fall above or below totals for a preset combination of two to 10 players. Your win probability obviously goes down with the more players you add, but you receive an increased payout multiplier in exchange.
Since Monkey Knife Fight’s fantasy point and stat-based totals are dynamic, meaning the total, total type, and pairings change throughout the week, it is important to search for favorable and advantageous total pairings to exploit on a daily basis. Ideally, when choosing a total pairing, you want to feel extremely confident on one of the totals and feel strongly enough about the other total to proceed. This week we will take a look at two of the ‘More’ options that stood out the most for Week 14. Note that these are not locked in pairings, and may no longer be offered by the time you log in to make your picks.
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Plays of the week
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE): 81.5 rushing yards
Nick Chubb has slowed down a bit since starting the season on fire but has an excellent chance to bounce back this week against the Cincinnati Bengals. However, the initial lean for this More or Less was on the Less, as this line can be found at 75.5 on the market via our player prop tool. This means the value is on the Less. Chubb has rushed for 82 or more yards just once in his last four games but has rushed for more than 76 in four of his last six games. See the difference a few yards makes? With that said, Chubb has an excellent history against the Bengals. Yes, the addition of a rusty Deshaun Watson to the equation makes the averages more anecdotal, but Chubb has averaged 95.4 rushing yards against the Bengals in the eight games he has played against them in his career. He ran for 101 rushing yards against them back in Week 8. Form combined with the inflated number suggests a Less play, but opponent and history suggest the More. We will tackle the More on Chubb for Week 14.
Prediction: More
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI): 65.5 rushing yards
Sanders has had some monster games this season, but others that make one wonder if he will even be the Eagles lead back in 2023. Add in Jalen Hurts siphoning carries at an alarming clip, and every Sanders line is fraught with uncertainty. This line was the closest to the market (64.5) of any line that stood out this week, suggesting that MonkeyKnifeFight is predicting that the Less hits. My initial lean here was to roll with the More against a struggling New York Giants team, but instead, let’s roll with what MonkeyKnifeFight does not want us to play. Sanders has fallen under 65 rushing yards in three of his last four games, managing more than 13 carries just once. New York has allowed 118.5 rushing yards per game to the running back position but has done so on 23 carries against a game. If Sanders stays at 13 or under, he will need a massive run to hit the number. He is capable of chunk plays but has averaged just 11 carries for 52 rushing yards per game against the Giants in his career. Stick with form and MKF’s lean for Week 14 and tap the Less for Sanders for Week 14.
Prediction: Less
Najee Harris (RB – PIT): 59.5 rushing yards
Najee Harris has bounced back over the last few weeks, at least in the rushing department. After a disappointing start to the season fueled by a weird love affair with Jaylen Warren, the Steelers have started to feed their workhorse again. After seeing 17 or more carries just twice in the first eight weeks of the season, Najee has hit 17 or more in three of his last four, hitting at least 86 rushing yards each time he got the requisite amount of carries. The 57.5 on the market is much more appealing than the 59.5 offered by MonkeyKnifeFight, but this line still represents one of the top offerings on the board for Week 14. Najee has struggled against the Ravens in his career, but with Lamar Jackson set to be sidelined for this weekend, the Steelers may finally have gamescript in their favor. Baltimore has faced some struggling runners over the last few weeks that have really skewed their rushing yards against numbers. Baltimore has faced just five running backs all season who were not struggling on the ground at the time. Four of those five rushed for 73 or more rushing yards, while the other left the game early due to injury and did not return. Tap the More on Najee for Week 14.
Prediction: More
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Raju Byfield is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Raju, check out his profile and follow him @FantasyContext.