It’s hard to believe, but we are heading into Week 13 already. This is one of the best weeks for games we have had with marquee matchups, particularly in the late Sunday afternoon window. We will look at three matchups today and how they will affect the fantasy performers in each one.

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Miami Dolphins OL (16th in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ San Francisco 49ers DL (2nd in FantasyPros DL Rankings)

In what is arguably the game of the week, Miami’s offense is set to see its stiffest test of the season thus far. San Francisco is coming off a shutout of New Orleans and hasn’t allowed any points in the second half of a game since Week 7. The 49ers have been especially good against the run, ranking 1st in the NFL in rush yards allowed and yards per carry allowed. They are also 2nd in rush DVOA and adjusted line yards. 

Given San Francisco’s stout run defense, this sets up a game where Miami will attack through the air. The Dolphins are 6th in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 1st in pass DVOA and passing yards per attempt. Mike McDaniel hasn’t been shy about turning Tua Tagovailoa loose, as he threw 32 passes in the 1st half last week against Houston. With Dolphins installed as early four-point underdogs, we could see Tagovailoa with 45 or more attempts this week. 

While Miami has been terrific this year in pass protection, boasting the third-best protection rate in the league, they will have to figure out how to neutralize Nick Bosa. Bosa figures to be active Sunday, and he catches a break with Terron Armstead looking unlikely to play. Bosa will now match up with Brandon Shell in what figures to be the biggest mismatch of the game. He seems to be a lock to add to his 11.5 sacks. The 49ers will need to get all the pressure on Tagovailoa they can, as he is a 73% passer on the year from a clean pocket. If the Miami offensive line holds up, there is blowup potential for this passing game, and Tua could end up with a top-5 week among QB scores.

I am personally looking more at Tyreek Hill and, to a lesser extent, Jaylen Waddle this week. The Dolphins’ lowish implied total (21.25) is offset by the fact that this could be a high-volume day for the passing game. It would not surprise me to see 12+ targets for Hill and 10+ for Waddle in one of the most condensed offenses in the league. I expect one of these two to pop for a big game. Jeff Wilson is not someone I am actively looking to jam into lineups, given the matchup, but this is a revenge game for him. Given the above factors, he is probably a lower-tier RB2. 

Cleveland Browns OL (2nd in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Houston Texans DL (32nd in FantasyPros DL Rankings) 

The Texans’ struggles against the run are well-documented, making this the biggest mismatch of Week 13. They rank 30th in defensive rush DVOA and adjusted line yards while giving up almost 170 yards per game on the ground. They are coming off a game against Miami where they gave up a season-low 66 rushing yards, but the Dolphins raced out to a 30-0 halftime lead and played backups most of the 2nd half. Now they get a Cleveland team that boasts one of the top rushing offenses in football. The Browns are averaging over 156 yards per game and are 3rd in offensive rush DVOA.

Much speculation has been made about how Cleveland will approach things with the return of Deshaun Watson. Cleveland may want to ease Watson back into things, but Kevin Stefanski hasn’t changed his play-calling tendencies much throughout his career. With Cleveland sporting a -7.5% PROE, I expect a healthy dose of Nick Chubb on Sunday. The only issue I see here is that the Browns will once again be without center Ethan Pocic, who was PFF’s #2 rated center on the season with an 84.3% run block grade. Hjalte Froholdt will once again fill in, and he has done so admirably in the last two games. 

With Houston having to respect Watson’s ability as a runner and a passer, it should mean (another) big day for Chubb on the ground. Watson’s presence should be a boon to the running game, as Chubb has faced a stacked box on almost 20% of his carries this year. Despite that, he still ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, and he should smash this Houston run defense. He is a locked-in RB1 this week (and all weeks), while I am treating Watson as an upside QB2 play. He has to knock off almost two years of rust, but the Texans rank 30th in yards per completion allowed. 

Philadelphia Eagles OL (1st in FantasyPros OL Rankings) @ Tennessee Titans DL (4th in FantasyPros DL Rankings)

This is a matchup of two teams that mirror each other in how they want to win games. Philadelphia has one of the top rushing offenses in the league, ranking 3rd in yards per game and rushing attempts while scoring 21 touchdowns on the ground. Tennessee counters with a rush defense that ranks 1st in the league in DVOA and only allows 84.5 yards per game. Tennessee hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in a game since Week 1 when Saquon Barkley shredded them. 

Since their Week 6 bye, the Titans have bottled up Jonathan Taylor (56 yards), Dameon Pierce (35 yards), and Aaron Jones (40 yards). Philadelphia is coming off a game where both Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts went over the 100-yard mark, and they rushed for over 350 yards as a team. Hurts hasn’t thrown for more than 175 yards since Week 9, so something has to give if Philadelphia is to win here. Titans standout DT Jeffery Simmons did miss practice Thursday with an ankle injury but should be able to suit up Sunday. Assuming he plays, I am tempering my expectations for Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell.

Sanders has been touchdown-dependent most weeks, and the Titans have only allowed three touchdowns on the ground all season, making him an RB2 for me this week. I am still rolling with Hurts as a QB1. Joe Burrow had 32 rushing yards last week, so this is a game where Hurts could scramble for extra yards. Finally, A.J. Brown is in a revenge game, so do what you will with that information.

Jason Kamlowsky is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @JasonKamlowsky.