The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football smash plays – guys that you are either usually starting or are on the FLEX fringe that have massive boom/upside potential above expectation – for the upcoming week.
Embrace these guys, and don’t be afraid to start them over another “safer” option – preferably a higher-ranked option – from my Week 17 fantasy football rankings.
Batter Up.
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Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 17
QUARTERBACKS
- The Lions have the highest implied team total on the slate (29.25)
- The Lions rank 8th in passing yards per game at home this season
- Since Week 8, the Bears are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to QBs (22.9) – second only to the Detroit Lions (25.3).
- Lions rank last in rushing EPA on early downs since Week 10, but 3rd in dropback EPA.
- Jared Goff finished Week 10 against the Bears third overall in passing EPA.
- Detroit ranks 2nd in passing TDs per game at home this season (2.5).
RUNNING BACKS
- Brian Robinson has 19 carries per game over his last 6 games averaging 82 rushing yards per game.
- The Browns are the one of the league’s worst run defenses allowing the 5th-most yards (113) at the 5th-highest yards per attempt (4.9).
- 5.2 yards per carry allowed since Week 11.
- Antonio Gibson missed time at the end of last week with an injury and has been all on the injury report missing practices.
- Tyler Allgeier has fully taken over the Falcons backfield.
- The rookie carried the ball 18 times for 74 rushing yards and added 4 receptions on 5 targets for 43 yards and a season-high 64% opportunity share of the Atlanta backfield in Week 16.
- His day would have been even better, but he failed to convert any of his 3 carries inside the 10-yard line into touchdowns.
- Cordarrelle Patterson had just one target and 8 carries for 17 yards (25% opportunity share).
- Over the last two weeks, Allgeier has rushed for 213 yards on 35 carries with 1 rushing TD and caught 5 passes for 40 yards.
- Since Week 9, Arizona is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs.
- 4.8 yards per carry and 100 rushing yards allowed per game
- Also rank dead last in yards, targets and receptions allowed to RBs.
- More RB1 usage for Cam Akers in Week 16.
- The polarizing running back carried the rock 23 times for 118 rushing yards and 3 TDs (all from inside the 10-yard line) as the Rams put the beatdown on the Denver Broncos’ lost season. Akers earned a 71% opportunity share and ran a route on 69% of dropbacks as the team’s clear-cut RB1.
- With an impressive last month and elite usage the last 2 weeks, Akers has entered must-start territory against the Los Angeles Chargers.
- LA ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed to RBs since Week 8 (facing 5.0 yards per carry).
- Over the last four weeks, Rams rank 8th in run rate on early downs with a -5% pass rate over expectation.
- Akers has averaged 16 carries for 71.25 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing TDs since Week 13.
- He has also played 72% or more of the offensive snaps in 3 of his last four games.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- DET-CHI features the 4th-fastest projected pace of play on the Week 17 main slate per Brandon Gdula’s Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report.
- Since Week 8, the Bears are allowing the 7th-most receiving yards per game (171) and rank dead-last in yards per reception (15.1) to WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has gone over 75.5 rec yards in 6 of his last 7 games.
- Including 119 receiving yards versus the Bears on 10 receptions (44% target share vs. Chicago).
- Since Week 10, St. Brown is 5th in target share (31%).
- All reasons to also play DJ Chark yet again….who led the Lions with 108 receiving yards on just 4 catches and 5 targets in Week 16. He caught both of his 20-plus air-yard throws from Jared Goff. Also ran a route on 83% of dropbacks.
- Excluding the tough matchup versus the Jets, Chark is averaging 100 receiving yards per game over his last 3 contests(also a top-24 WR in each game).
- Expect his hot streak to continue against Chicago’s pass defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA and last in yards per catch allowed since Week 6.
- Leads Giants in target share since Week 12 (22% target share) averaging 5.4 receptions, 7 targets and 50 receiving yards per game.
- In Week 16 Richie James led the Giants in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in the loss to Minnesota. 29% target share (12 targets, 29% target rate) and 8 catches for 90 yards.
- Owns a super favorable matchup incoming as the primary slot WR versus the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17.
- The way to attack the Colts has been through slot WRs, as they have allowed more points to slot WRs than any other team since Week 13 (32.8 PPR points per game) when starting slot CB Kenny Moore exited the lineup with an injury.
- Since Jeff Saturday took over as interim HC, the Colts rank 5th in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs.
- IND-NYG features the fastest projected pace of play on the Week 17 main slate per Brandon Gdula’s Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report.
- Minnesota is allowing most fantasy points per game to WRs since Week 6. Most to both perimeter (19.1) and slot WRs (26.5).
- Christian Watson missed the entire second half of the Packers’ contest on Christmas Day with a hip injury.
- In relief we saw Romeo Doubs finish second on the team in route runs (60%) while commanding 6 targets, catching 3 for 36 yards (24% target rate per route run).
- Should Watson miss anytime — DNP on Wednesday and Thursday — Doubs would be an easy plug-in WR option off the waiver wire ahead of a juicy matchup.
- Over 30% target rate per route run in his last 2 games.
TIGHT ENDS
- Start Cole Kmet. Team-leading 25% target share over the last four games.
- Earned a 39% target share the last time he faced the Lions: 4-72-2 on 7 targets.
- The Lions are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points per game to TEs aligned inline since Week 6.
- Kmet ranks top-12 in routes run from inline.
- He also played a season-high 71% of his snaps from inline when he faced Detroit in Week 10.
- More of the same from the Jets tight end room in Week 16.
- Tyler Conklin saw solid usage – 73% route participation, 71% snap share – catching all four of his targets for 34 yards.
- He is a fringe fantasy TE1 next week versus Seattle, based on the matchup alone. Seattle gives up the most fantasy points to the TE position.
- In 2 games Mike White started this season, Conklin drew 7-plus targets.
- Logan Thomas finally put together a decent fantasy outing after 15 weeks of uninspiring play.
- The Washington Commanders tight end drew 8 targets (6 from Carson Wentz, 38% target share) while running a route on 89% of dropbacks.
- Best usage he has seen all year. With Wentz named the starter in Week 17, LT is a viable streaming option.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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