The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football smash plays – guys that you are either usually starting or are on the FLEX fringe that have massive boom/upside potential above expectation – for the upcoming week.

Embrace these guys, and don’t be afraid to start them over another “safer” option – preferably a higher-ranked option – from my Week 16 fantasy football rankings.

Merry Christmas, ya filthy animals.

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Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 16

QUARTERBACKS

Geno Smith (WR- SEA)

• SEA-KC features the 2nd-fastest projected pace of play on the Week 16 main slate per Brandon Gdula’s Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report.
• KC is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to QBs since Week 6.
• They also rank first in passing TD percentage allowed (79%) and second-to-last in red-zone defense (69%).
• Even with Ken Walker back in the lineup, the Seattle Seahawks were +7% pass rate over expectation in Week 15. They passed on early downs at a 68% clip (2nd-highest mark in Week 15).
• Chef Geno has a chance to cook, facing a projected negative game script.

RUNNING BACKS

Jerick McKinnon (RB – KC)

• Jerick McKinnon totaled 10-52-1 rushing and 8-70-1 on 8 targets in Week 15. The Chiefs RB earned a season-high 18 touches on a 53% opportunity share, 65% route participation and 62% snap share.
• McKinnon also out-snappedIsiah Pacheco for the third consecutive week. We saw the Chiefs turn to McKinnon more down the stretch last season, so it’s not too surprising to see his role growing, with a 65% route participation in Week 15. The coaches’ trust in him is super apparent based on his constant usage in the red zone. 9 red-zone touches (5 inside the 10-yard line) since Week 13.
• Pacheco went 15-86-0 rushing (1 catch for 11 yards on 1 target and 11 routes) on a 35% snap share. But he also fumbled, and Ronald Jones went in on the next drive. Although the team went back to Pacheco in the 3rd quarter.
• McKinnon is the RB2 in points per game and the RB13 in expected fantasy points per game over the last 3 weeks. He also ranks second on the team in receptions and targets since Week 10.
• Seattle is the prime spot for McKinnon to erupt, as they have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to RBs this season.

Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)

• The Cleveland Browns are allowing the second-highest yards per carry (5.2) to opposing RBs this season.
• Alvin Kamara rushed 21 times for 91 yards rushing, 2-13-0 on 2 targets in Week 15. 23 total touches for Kamara. David Johnson had just 4 carries for 12 yards (also fumbled). Taysom Hill saw 7 carries for 30 rushing yards (2/2 for 80-1-0 passing). But what’s more bizarre is that Kamara ran fewer routes than Johnson (10 vs. 9). AK41 ran a route on just 43% of dropbacks.
• Expect his target numbers to increase without Chris Olave in the lineup. Kamara caught 6 passes for 25 yards on 9 targets the last time Olave missed a game this season.
• At least he saw the majority of carries which is all he will need versus the Browns’ atrocious run defense in Week 16.
• The projected sub-zero temperatures call for the Saints to go run-heavy.
• The Saints are -6% pass rate over expectation and have thrown on early downs on just 43% of their plays in their last two games.

J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)

• J.K. Dobbins operated as RB1 with a 61% opportunity share in Week 15. He totaled 13 carries for 125 rushing yards and caught one pass for 3 yards.
• However, he split snaps with Justice Hill (38% each) as the Ravens were trailing. Hill led the backfield in routes run (16 vs. 6) but had just 2 touches.
• Kenyan Drake was a healthy scratch, while Gus Edwards was limited to 7 carries for 55 rushing yards.
• Dobbins has rushed for 245 rushing yards on 28 carries the last two weeks (8.7 yards per carry). The Ravens have gone extremely run heavy over this time frame, posting a -15% pass rate over expectation.
• The Ravens own No. 1 blocking matchup per the 33rd team’s trenches matchup tool.
• Since Week 11, the Falcons have allowed the fewest passing yards per game to QBs (159). But 8th-most rushing yards per game (114) and third-most RB rushes faced.
• Dobbins was fully removed from the injury report on Wednesday

Miles Sanders (RB – PHI)

• Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni admitted that he didn’t use running back Miles Sanders enough in Week 15. His 1st carry did not come until 6:47 in the second quarter as the Eagles deployed an extremely pass-heavy approach. “We’ve got to get him the ball more,” Sirianni said.
• And this is hardly just coach speak, considering how Sanders has performed following down weeks this season.
• Sanders has finished with 3 games under 50 rushing yards this season, including last week.
• In the subsequent weeks, he has finished as the fantasy RB3, RB2 and RB3. I’d expect the ground game to remain a major emphasis with Gardner Minshew drawing the start.
• Dallas ranks inside the top-10 in rushing yards allowed per game this season (104).
• Sanders rushed for 71 rushing yards vs. Dallas back in Week 6. The Eagles posted a -7% pass rate over expectation to expose the Cowboys’ run defense.

WIDE RECEIVERS

D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)

• Gone over his receiving yards prop in 2 of 3 games with Sam Darnold.
• Team-leading 27% target share over his last 3 games.
• The Lions have allowed the second-most fantasy points and receiving yards per game allowed to WRs since Week 6 (215).
• Darnold will benefit from the second-best pass-blocking matchup per the 33rd team’s trenches matchup tool. He’s been effective from a clean pocket this season, boasting the league’s second-highest yards per attempt (10.1) without pressure.
• Finished last week 6th in passing EPA

Marquise Goodwin (WR – SEA)

• No. 3 WR Marquise Goodwin figures to take on a larger role with Tyler Lockett unlikely to play.
• He ran a route on 65% of dropbacks and played 75% of the snaps in Week 15. Goodwin was targeted 5 times but caught just two passes for 10 yards.
• In the other 3 games this season that Goodwin has played at least 54% of the snaps he has scored 4 TDs and totaled 200 receiving yards with a 14% target share. He’s seen 5-plus targets in back-to-back weeks and saw 5 targets in both games where Metcalf was either limited or left with an injury mid-game.
• Goodwin ranks second on the Seahawks in receiving EPA and has the highest passer rating generated when targeted this season (150.5) among WRs with at least 30 targets.
• He also ranks first in catch rate vs. man coverage this season (82%).

Darius Slayton (WR – NYG)

• Darius Slayton finished second in targets (7, 23% target share) but finished with just 5 catches for 23 yards in Week 15.
• He also ran a route on 100% of the team’s dropbacks.
• As the team’s clear No. 1 WR, he will be back on the WR3 radar in a plus-matchup versus Minnesota in Week 16.
• Most fantasy points allowed per game to WRs since Week 6, specifically most points allowed to the perimeter (19.8).
• In deeper formats, Richie James Jr. and Isaiah Hodgins are also in play.

Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)

• LAC-IND features the 2nd-fastest projected pace of play in Week 16 per Brandon Gdula’s Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report
• Without starting slot cornerback Kenny Moore, the Colts have been destroyed by slot WRs.
• Since Week 13, they have allowed the most fantasy points per game to WRs in the slot at 39.9 PPR points per game.
• Keenan Allen has averaged a 27% target share and 10 catches per game over the last 2 weeks.

TIGHT ENDS

Juwan Johnson (TE – NO)

• 4-67-2 on team-high 6 targets (32% target share, 46% target rate per route run) in Week 15.
• All this man does is score TDs. 7 since Week 7.
• But be warned that in games that he doesn’t score he will undoubtedly bust hard with a sub-65% route participation.
• Although the high-value targets likely won’t stop coming his way with both Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry ruled out for Week 16 vs. the Browns.
• Johnson went 4-41 on 6 targets the last time he played without Olave active.
• The weather is obviously frightful, but when the Saints do elect to throw Johnson will likely be the No. 1 target, especially in the red zone.
• Taysom Hill should also be started with him likely to see an increased workload due to the weather conditions and WR injuries. He had nine touches in Week 15.

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