Last month, on the occasion of a Browns-Bills game being moved to Detroit in advance of a snowstorm in Buffalo, I wrote about weather effects on fantasy football.

Concerns about bad weather are often unfounded, and there are many times when seemingly worrisome conditions have no discernible impact on player performance. The only weather effects that would prompt me to drop a player in my rankings would be sustained winds of at least 20 mph, heavy rains, or enough snow to pile up on the field.

Last week, there was panic in the fantasy community about the possibility of blizzard-like conditions in Buffalo for the Dolphins-Bills game. People debated whether to bench prolific fantasy scorers such as Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle based on the dire forecast. It turned out to be a big nothing-burger. The weather was cold, but the snow held off until late in the game, and the wind wasn’t a factor.

Generally, it’s wise to fade weather effects.

But not this week.

Even a steadfast fade-the-weather guy like me has concerns about some of the gameday forecasts for Week 16. There could be heavy rain and strong winds for Jaguars-Jets on Thursday night. The Bills-Bears game in Chicago will have frigid weather and fierce winds. So will the Saints-Browns game in Cleveland, which could also get some snow.

There will also be frosty temperatures for Texans-Titans, Seahawks-Chiefs, Falcons-Ravens and Raiders-Steelers, though I’m not yet downgrading any players from those games based on the conditions.

All of this foul weather could have an interesting effect on fantasy playoff games. We’re probably going to see a lot of low scores. It’s also possible the bad weather could be an equalizer, leveling the field a bit for the underdogs.

It’s going to be an interesting weekend, friends. Amid the holiday festivities, you might want to carve out some time to double-check those forecasts before games involving your players get underway.

As always, feel free to use the tiered rankings below as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. I’ll offer brief thoughts on a handful of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. Rankings are based on half-point PPR scoring.

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 16 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice

QUARTERBACKS

Check out Fitz’s quarterback rankings here

Tier 1

Patrick Mahomes (vs. SEA)

Josh Allen (@ CHI)

Justin Herbert (@ IND)

Tier 2

Justin Fields (vs. BUF)

Joe Burrow (@ NE)

Kirk Cousins (vs. NYG)

Tua Tagovailoa (vs. GB)

Tier 3

Dak Prescott (vs. PHI)

Daniel Jones (@ MIN)

Tom Brady (@ ARI)

Geno Smith (@ KC)

Aaron Rodgers (@ MIA)

Trevor Lawrence (@ NYJ)

Jared Goff (@ CAR)

Tier 4

Gardner Minshew (@ DAL)

Brock Purdy (vs. WAS)

Derek Carr (@ PIT)

Kenny Pickett (vs. LV)

Tier 5

Deshaun Watson (vs. NO)

Russell Wilson (@ LAR)

Nick Foles (vs. LAC)

Sam Darnold (vs. DET)

Zach Wilson (vs. JAC)

Mac Jones (vs. CIN)

Tyler Huntley (vs. ATL)

Tier 6

Taylor Heinicke (@ SF)

Malik Willis (vs. HOU)

Desmond Ridder (@ BAL)

Baker Mayfield (vs. DEN)

Davis Mills (@ TEN)

Trace McSorley (vs. TB)

Andy Dalton (@ CLE)

As noted in the introduction, Bills-Bears and Saints-Browns are probably the two scariest bad-weather games on the board. Both contests will be played in the sort of high winds that could completely annihilate passing. The good news is that three of the four starting quarterbacks in those games — Josh Allen, Justin Fields and Deshaun Watson – provide value as runners. Allen and Fields are such good runners that I’m not significantly downgrading them because of the weather. Watson takes a bigger hit — and frankly, he hasn’t exactly dazzled us as either a runner or passer since his return from suspension in Week 13. The fourth starting quarterback from those two games, Andy Dalton, is completely unplayable.

The Buccaneers are barely paying lip service to their running game these days. In his last four games, Tom Brady has attempted 43, 54, 55 and 44 passes. He’s averaged 273 passing yards over that stretch and threw multiple TD passes in three of those four games. As ineffective as Brady has been for much of the season, he’s a top-10 quarterback this week against the Cardinals, who have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs. Arizona has allowed a league-worst 69.7% completion rate, and its opponent passer rating of 99.1 is third-worst.

Trevor Lawrence has been red-hot, throwing for more than 300 yards in three of his last four starts, with 11 TD passes and only one interception over that span. But Lawrence has an unsavory matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed only 13 TD passes all season. The Jets are yielding just 193.1 passing yards per game and 5.8 yards per attempt. Lawrence might also have to deal with windy, rainy conditions Thursday night in East Rutherford, N.J. I have Lawrence ranked as a high-end QB2, and I might drop him further if it appears the rain will be heavy.

I’ve heard from a lot of people who have Jalen Hurts as their primary quarterback and have been debating whether to replace him with Gardner Minshew or Brock Purdy. I’ve been finding it impossible to separate the two. They both have very good offensive lines and pass catchers. They both faces defenses with fierce pass rushes. (Minshew faces the Cowboys; Purdy goes up against the Commanders.) Minshew is more experienced, but he’ll be seeing his first significant action of the year, while Purdy has a couple of starts under his belt. I think it’s a dead heat between Minshew and Purdy for Week 16.

RUNNING BACKS

Check out Fitz’s running back rankings here

Tier 1

Derrick Henry (vs. HOU)

Christian McCaffrey (vs. WAS)

Tier 2

Austin Ekeler (@ IND)

Josh Jacobs (@ PIT)

Rhamondre Stevenson (vs. CIN)

Saquon Barkley (@ MIN)

Dalvin Cook (vs. NYG)

Nick Chubb (vs. NO)

Tier 3

Tony Pollard (vs. PHI)

Alvin Kamara (@ CLE)

James Conner (vs. TB)

Aaron Jones (@ MIA)

Tier 4

Raheem Mostert (vs. GB)

Travis Etienne (@ NYJ)

Jerick McKinnon (vs. SEA)

Isiah Pacheco (vs. SEA)

Joe Mixon (@ NE)

J.K. Dobbins (vs. ATL)

Najee Harris (vs. LV)

David Montgomery (vs. BUF)

Kenneth Walker (@ KC)

Ezekiel Elliott (vs. PHI)

Miles Sanders (@ DAL)

Devin Singletary (@ CHI)

Latavius Murray (@ LAR)

Tier 5

Zonovan Knight (vs. JAC)

D’Andre Swift (@ CAR)

Rachaad White (@ ARI)

Jamaal Williams (@ CAR)

Cam Akers (vs. DEN)

A.J. Dillon (@ MIA)

Leonard Fournette (@ ARI)

James Cook (@ CHI)

Kareem Hunt (vs. NO)

Deon Jackson (vs. LAC)

Zack Moss (vs. LAC)

Brian Robinson (@ SF)

Tier 6

Antonio Gibson (@ SF)

Chuba Hubbard (vs. DET)

Cordarrelle Patterson (@ BAL)

Tyler Allgeier (@ BAL)

D’Onta Foreman (vs. DET)

Michael Carter (vs. JAC)

Royce Freeman (@ TEN)

Gus Edwards (vs. ATL)

Khalil Herbert (vs. BUF)

Jaylen Warren (vs. LV)

Samaje Perine (@ NE)

Kenneth Gainwell (@ DAL)

Miles Sanders‘ finishes in half-PPR fantasy scoring the last four weeks: RB2, RB22, RB3, RB66. Jalen Hurts had three TD runs last week, and two of them were 1-yard plunges. Sanders had a chance for a short TD run but lost his footing and went down inches short of the goal line. While the presence of Hurts costs Sanders some touchdowns, the outlook for Sanders is certainly better with Hurts in the lineup than without. Defenses have to respect Hurts’ rushing ability, and that can create bigger rushing lanes for Eagles RBs. If Hurts misses Week 16, Sanders might get more rushing attempts and is less likely to be poached by his QB at the goal line, but Sanders may have less room to run, and the Eagles’ offense will be less potent overall. Consider him a low-end RB2 this week against Dallas.

Since Week 9, Jerick McKinnon has been the RB9 in half-PPR fantasy scoring and the RB17 in fantasy points per game with 13.3. Over the last two weeks, he’s had 16-74-1 rushing and 15-183-3 receiving on 17 targets. McKinnon’s 10 carries last week marked the first time all season he’s had double-digit rushing attempts. The lack of rushing volume makes McKinnon a somewhat volatile asset, but the usage in the passing game … *chef’s kiss*. McKinnon has seen at least six targets in five of his last seven games. With frigid weather in the forecast for the Chiefs’ home game against Seattle on Saturday, the Kansas City offense could be more RB-centric than usual. The Seahawks have given up 211.8 rushing yards per game since coming out of their Week 11 bye, and they’ve given up the fourth-most receiving yards to RBs. McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco are both high-end RB2s this week.

Kenneth Walker averaged 102.4 rushing yards and scored seven touchdowns from Week 5 to Week 9, but the Seattle running game has gone belly-up. The Seahawks are averaging 62 rushing yards over their last five games and haven’t rushed for 100 yards in any game during that stretch. Walker has averaged just 3.2 yards per carry since Week 10 and has rushed for 47 yards or fewer in each of his last four games. On the other hand, cold conditions in Kansas City, the absence of injured WR Tyler Lockett, and the desire to control the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field could inspire the Seahawks to go run-heavy this week. Still, I have Walker ranked outside the top 20 at RB this week.

At this point, it’s TD or bust for Jamaal Williams. Since the start of November (seven games), Williams has averaged 53.6 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per carry, and he’s caught exactly zero passes. Williams is the RB13 in half-PPR formats for the year, with 47.7% of his points coming from touchdowns. The good news is that, as of Wednesday, the Lions had an implied point totals of 23.25 for their road game against the Panthers, so Williams investors have a decent chance of getting the touchdown they need.

It’s hard to tell whether Zack Moss or Deon Jackson will be the more valuable Colts RB this week with starter Jonathan Taylor out for the year with a high-ankle sprain. Moss out-snapped Jackson 53-25 and out-touched him 24-14 last week vs. the Vikings. But was that simply a matter of game script? The Colts opened up a 33-0 lead by halftime, and maybe Moss was the designated clock-killer. (How did that work out for the Colts, by the way?) I’ve never been particularly excited about Moss. There’s little question that Jackson is the better pass catcher, so game script might dictate which of the Indy RBs is more valuable this week. But if one of these guys gets the vast majority of the carries, that workload could be pretty valuable this week in a matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards and fourth-most fantasy points to RBs. I took the coward’s way out and ranked Moss and Jackson side by side as low-end RB3s.

Atlanta’s RB committee isn’t very appealing this week in a matchup against the Ravens in Baltimore, even though the Falcons are one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. In six straight games from Week 8 to Week 14, the Ravens held their opponents under 100 rushing yards. (The Browns snapped the Ravens’ streak with 143 rushing yards last week.) In four of those games, Baltimore held its opponent under 50 rushing yards. Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier are not appealing options.

I have D’Onta Foreman ranked RB42 this week. Maybe I’m docking him too much for his 10-9-0 rushing day against the Steelers in Week 15 — a performance that torpedoed many a fantasy team. Chuba Hubbard out-snapped Foreman 29-14. That was due in part to the fact that the Panthers trailed throughout that game. Still, I don’t like how Week 15 sets up for Foreman. He’s facing a Detroit defense that has given up only 55.7 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks, which included the blanketing of Dalvin Cook and Travis Etienne. And Foreman has caught only five passes all season, so he doesn’t have another pass to fantasy value of the Carolina running game isn’t working.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Check out Fitz’s wide receiver rankings here

Tier 1

Justin Jefferson (vs. NYG)

Tyreek Hill (vs. GB)

Tier 2

Davante Adams (@ PIT)

Ja’Marr Chase (@ NE)

D.K. Metcalf (@ KC)

Tier 3

Amon-Ra St. Brown (@ CAR)

A.J. Brown (@ DAL)

CeeDee Lamb (vs. PHI)

Keenan Allen (@ IND)

Stefon Diggs (@ CHI)

Chris Godwin (@ ARI)

Jaylen Waddle (vs. GB)

Tier 4

Tee Higgins (@ NE)

Mike Williams (@ IND)

Terry McLaurin (@ SF)

Mike Evans (@ ARI)

DeAndre Hopkins (vs. TB)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (vs. SEA)

Garrett Wilson (vs. JAC)

Tier 5

Christian Watson (@ MIA)

Jerry Jeudy (@ LAR)

DeVonta Smith (@ DAL)

Christian Kirk (@ NYJ)

Michael Pittman (vs. LAC)

D.J. Moore (vs. DET)

Brandon Aiyuk (vs. WAS)

Zay Jones (@ NYJ)

Tier 6

Adam Thielen (vs. NYG)

Darius Slayton (@ MIN)

Drake London (@ BAL)

George Pickens (vs. LV)

Diontae Johnson (vs. LV)

Marquise Goodwin (@ KC)

Amari Cooper (vs. NO)

Tier 7

Allen Lazard (@ MIA)

Jakobi Meyers (vs. CIN)

Joshua Palmer (@ IND)

Marquise Brown (vs. TB)

Gabe Davis (@ CHI)

Jahan Dotson (@ SF)

Chris Moore (@ TEN)

Tier 8

Romeo Doubs (@ MIA)

Michael Gallup (vs. PHI)

Mack Hollins (@ PIT)

Parris Campbell (vs. LAC)

Curtis Samuel (@ SF)

D.J. Chark (@ CAR)

Treylon Burks (vs. HOU)

K.J. Osborn (vs. NYG)

Tier 9

Alec Pierce (vs. LAC)

Isaiah Hodgins (@ MIN)

Elijah Moore (vs. JAC)

Corey Davis (vs. JAC)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. SEA)

Donovan Peoples-Jones (vs. NO)

Russell Gage (@ ARI)

Tutu Atwell (vs. DEN)

Nelson Agholor (vs. CIN)

Tyler Boyd (@ NE)

Isaiah McKenzie (@ CHI)

Van Jefferson (vs. DEN)

Richie James (@ MIN)

Terrace Marshall (vs. DET)

Terry McLaurin has a tricky matchup this week against a 49ers defense that hasn’t allowed more than 257 passing yards or 17 points in a game since Week 7. But I still have McLaurin ranked as a high-end WR2 this week. He’s averaged 5.8 catches and 81.0 receiving yards per game since Week 7, and he’s seen no fewer than six targets in any game during that stretch.

With Deebo Samuel out last week with a high-ankle sprain and sprained MCL, I thought Brandon Aiyuk might benefit from extra targets. Instead, Aiyuk turned in a 2-19-0 clunker on only four targets. I’m cautiously optimistic that Aiyuk will pop this week against Washington. Deebo is still out, and it’s possible the 49ers will ask George Kittle to do more blocking and less route-running against a vicious Commanders pass rush that features Montez Sweat and Chase Young on the edges. Washington has given up fewer than 200 passing yards in each of its last five games, but its opponents in those games were the Giants (twice), Falcons, Texans and Eagles — mostly teams with impotent passing attacks.

D.J. Moore‘s stat lines since Sam Darnold took over as Carolina’s starting quarterback in Week 12: 4-103-1, 0-0-0 and 5-73-1. The doughnut against Seattle was disappointing, but the results of the Darnold-Moore reunion have mostly been positive. It was a good connection in 2021, too: With Darnold as the starter in Weeks 1-9 last year, Moore had 53-677-3. That projects to 100 catches for 1,279 yards over a full season. It’s much easier to throw against the Lions than to run against them, so I’m enthusiastic about Moore’s outlook vs. Detroit.

I wouldn’t say I’d be eager to play Drake London this week, but I think he’s usable in a pinch. The weather for Atlanta’s Saturday game in Baltimore will be cold and breezy, and London will be getting his targets from Falcons rookie Desmond Ridder, who completed 13-of-26 passes for 97 yards last week in his first NFL start. But London had 7-70-0 in that game, with a 42.3% target share and a 72.9% share of the passing yardage. Again, I’m not saying London is a sexy play this week, but I think he could be a viable midrange WR3.

The forecast for the Saints-Browns game Saturday in Cleveland says it’s going to be 13 degrees with a chance of snow and 25-35 mph winds that could gust up to 50 mph. I’m looking for any excuse not to use Amari Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones or any other WR involved in this game.

Marquise Goodwin is my favorite sneaky start for Week 16. Tyler Lockett is out this week after having surgery to repair a broken finger. Beyond D.K. Metcalf and Goodwin, Seattle’s other receivers are Penny Hart, Dareke Young and the newly signed Laquon Treadwell? Woof. As mentioned earlier in the Kenneth Walker note, the Seattle running game has been dysfunctional. The Seahawks are going to have to throw Sunday in Kansas City, and they’re facing a Chiefs defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs. I have Goodwin ranked in WR3 territory.

In the four games that Mitchell Trubisky has started and finished for the Steelers this season, Diontae Johnson has averaged 7.8 catches and 73.5 receiving yards, with double-digit targets in all four contests. In the 10 games that rookie QB Kenny Pickett has played, Johnson has averaged 8.0 targets, 4.6 catches and 45.1 receiving yards. Pickett is back as Pittsburgh’s starter after missing Week 14 with a concussion, so I wouldn’t be especially eager to use Johnson this week, even in a favorable matchup against the Raiders. (And I don’t have to remind Johnson investors of this, but Johnson is still looking for his first touchdown of the season.)

I don’t think Marquise Brown is playable in most formats with third-string QB Trace McSorley getting the start for the Cardinals. Brown has had 4-34-0 and 4-19-0 over the last two weeks with Kyler Murray out of commission due to a torn ACL. In the three games Brown and DeAndre Hopkins have played together, Brown has averaged just 7.1 yards per catch. For the season, he’s averaging 10.2 yards per catch and 6.6 yards per target — both career lows.

TIGHT ENDS

Check out Fitz’s tight end rankings here

Tier 1

Travis Kelce (vs. SEA)

Tier 2

Mark Andrews (vs. ATL)

T.J. Hockenson (vs. NYG)

George Kittle (vs. WAS)

Dalton Schultz (vs. PHI)

Taysom Hill (@ CLE)

Tier 3

Evan Engram (@ NYJ)

Dallas Goedert (@ DAL)

Greg Dulcich (@ LAR)

Darren Waller (@ PIT)

Tier 4

Pat Freiermuth (vs. LV)

Gerald Everett (@ IND)

Dawson Knox (@ CHI)

David Njoku (vs. NO)

Cole Kmet (vs. BUF)

Hunter Henry (vs. CIN)

Noah Fant (@ KC)

Tyler Conklin (vs. JAC)

Tier 5

Daniel Bellinger (@ MIN)

Tyler Higbee (vs. DEN)

Cade Otton (@ ARI)

Hayden Hurst (@ NE)

Will Dissly (@ KC)

Juwan Johnson (@ CLE)

Tier 6

Noah Gray (vs. SEA)

Robert Tonyan (@ MIA)

Chigoziem Okonkwo (vs. HOU)

Logan Thomas (@ SF)

Austin Hooper (vs. HOU)

C.J. Uzomah (vs. JAC)

Jordan Akins (@ TEN)

Trey McBride (vs. TB)

Jelani Woods (vs. LAC)

Mike Gesicki (vs. GB)

Kylen Granson (vs. LAC)

Jonnu Smith (vs. CIN)

Isaiah Likely (vs. ATL)

Cameron Brate (@ ARI)

Travis Kelce is far and away the most valuable tight end in fantasy football, and he’s going up against the Seahawks, far and away the worst team at defending tight ends. Kelce doesn’t just get his own tier; he gets his own TE galaxy this week. There’s no other tight end within a million miles of him.

The harsh winter weather could wreak havoc with passing games and torpedo the fantasy value of some quarterbacks and wide receivers, but there are players who could potentially benefit from the harsh conditions. One such player is Taysom Hill. With the winds howling in Cleveland, the Saints and Browns are going to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, and that probably means the Saints will make heavy use of the wildcat formation with Hill at quarterback. I’m expecting at least 8-10 carries for Hill. That doesn’t necessarily translate into a great fantasy day, but if he gets into the end zone once or twice … huzzah. I’m ranking Hill as a midrange TE1.

Darren Waller finally returned to the Raiders’ lineup in Week 15 after missing eight games with a hamstring injury, and he had an immediate impact, putting up 3-48-1 on three targets. Waller is going to have to live with smaller target counts than he used to see in the days before Davante Adams was wearing silver and black, but Waller is still one of the better pass-catching TEs in the game. Consider him a low-end TE1 this week against the Steelers, who have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to TEs.

Entering Week 15, Pat Freiermuth had averaged 6.8 targets and 4.4 catches per game. But Freiermuth is dealing with a foot injury and didn’t see a single target last Sunday despite playing 38 snaps. It’s possible Freiermuth is more involved this week, but I wouldn’t be particularly excited about playing him this week even in a good matchup against the Raiders.

Just when we were getting excited about using Chigoziem Okonkwo in our fantasy playoff matchups, we got the news that Titans QB Ryan Tannehill is likely out for the season with an ankle injury, to be replaced by rookie Malik Willis. In two starts and seven total appearances this season, Willis has completed 17-of-38 passes for 177 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. It’s impossible to start any of the Titans’ TEs with confidence this week. I have Okonkwo ranked as a midrange TE2 and Austin Hooper ranked as a high-end TE3, and even those modest rankings may be overly optimistic.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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