The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football land mines — a guy you’re probably thinking about starting, but here’s why he might be a land mine that explodes your starting lineup — for the upcoming week.
Proceed with caution, and don’t be afraid to pivot to another option — preferably a higher-ranked option from my Week 16 fantasy football rankings.
Brace Yourself and Take Cover.
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QUARTERBACKS
- Tough matchup for Trevor Lawrence. He will be without starting left tackle Cam Robinson.
- The Jets are allowing the league’s third-lowest passing TD rate (47%).
- Their defense has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs since Week 6.
- The Steel Curtain defense has come alive since the return of T.J. Watt back in Week 10.
- They have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs over that span facing the league’s second-lowest passing attempts per game (27) and just 204 passing yards per game, which ranks sixth.
- The return of Derek Carr‘s weapons makes him look enticing on the surface as a streamable option this week, but the matchup says otherwise.
RUNNINGS BACKS
- Brian Robinson rushed 12 times for 89 yards (fumbled out of bounds) and zero TDs, leading the Commanders’ backfield with a 59% opportunity share in Week 15.
- Per usual, Antonio Gibson was the most involved receiver, commanding 4 targets while tallying 5 carries for 21 yards (also fumbled).
- AG also out-snapped Robinson (60% vs. 38%), and he ran more routes (24 vs. 5) with Washington facing a negative game script for the majority of Sunday Night Football.
- Robinson also fell victim to a ticky-tack illegal formation penalty that wiped off a goal-line 4th quarter touchdown.
- With him so game-script dependent, he’s difficult to trust vs. the 49ers defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs this season.
- The Commanders are 7-point road dogs, and B-Rob has glaring splits when Washington has lost.
- In their last two losses, Robinson has averaged just 12.5 carries and just 8 fantasy points per game.
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- Chuba Hubbard went 4-10-0 rushing and 3-57-0 as a receiver on 3 targets in Week 15. Hubbard also led the Panthers backfield in snaps (63%) with Carolina down in the second half. He ran a route on 57% of dropbacks.
- D’Onta Foreman finished with just 9 rushing yards on 10 carries (zero targets, 30% snap share). He was stuffed twice at the goal line (thrice inside the 10-yard line) and just ran two routes (same as Raheem Blackshear). No ground game to speak of in Carolina.
- After this abysmal performance and downtick in usage, Foreman cannot be trusted against a Lions run defense that ranks… NUMBER ONE vs. RBs in fantasy since Week 6.
- Too risky that the Panthers fall behind with the Lions high-octane offense scoring at will.
- Just last week, Mitchell Trubisky finished 5th in passing EPA versus the Panthers defense. Jared Goff ranked third in passing EPA in a much more difficult matchup versus an elite Jets defense. Ergo, Detroit should have no problem moving the ball offensively. And that will crater Foreman’s fantasy value.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- Trust the process, folks. We have gone a perfect 3-for-3 fading the No. 2 WRs facing the New York Jets of the past three weeks.
- So yes, that means it’s time for Zay Jones to ride the pine, despite how hot he has been over the last month.
- New York has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs since Week 6.
- They rank 6th in DVOA versus No. 2 WRs allowing the 4th-fewest receiving yards (37 yards per game) to opposing No. 2 WRs.
- Jones seems impossible to sit with three top-10 finishes in his last four games, but a WR77 finish against the Detroit Lions is a friendly reminder that he’s still very much a boom-or-bust proposition. Throw in rain on a Thursday night, and you can see why I am not super confident in Jones delivering another massive fantasy week.
- The Saints have the lowest implied team total on the slate this week (14.5 points) due to projected horrible weather conditions in Cleveland.
- The early forecasts call for winds up to 27 mph and freezing temperatures at 10 degrees. But with wind-chill, it will feel sub-zero-like conditions. Not ideal for fantasy football purposes on either side.
- Therefore you cannot have strong faith in any Saints passing weapon, including Chris Olave. The rookie has cooled off considerably over the last 3 weeks with three finishes outside the top-40 WRs.
- The Saints are -6% pass rate over expectation and have thrown on early downs on just 43% of their plays in their last two games.
- And in Week 15, Olave played fewer than 50% of the snaps and ran fewer routes than Rashid Shaheed.
- There’s not much upside for Olave in this spot with almost no chance for downfield splash plays. Keep in mind the Ohio State product ranks in the bottom 20 in YAC/reception this season.
- More likely to see a healthy dosage of the Taysom Hill package instead.
- Since Deshaun Watson took over starting duties three weeks ago, Amari Cooper has yet to finish better than WR44 any week despite a team-leading 26% target share. He averaged just over 3 catches for 47 yards on 7 targets per game.
- Cleveland’s run-heavy nature – -6% pass rate over expectation – is doing no favors for Cooper’s fantasy value.
- And I’d hardly expect them to dial up their pass attack even after they showed flashes of a more pass-happy approach in Week 15 – 4th highest pass rate on early downs – based on the projected forecast being extremely windy.
- Last week the wind was half of what the forecast projects (up to 27 mph), and Watson posted a 4.6 average depth of throw. Cooper led the team with a whopping 40 air yards.
- Philly is allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs (8.6) this season.
- For that reason, you can’t view Michael Gallup as a legitimate WR3/FLEX option, especially with his recent usage.
- He saw just 2 targets in Dallas’ OT loss last week despite a 91% snaps share.
- I’m afraid the Eagles’ strong cornerback tandem on the boundary will limit Gallup and his 17% target share since Week 10.
- Philly ranks 1st in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs this season.
TIGHT ENDS
- Rookie Malik Willis is expected to start in Week 16 vs. the Texans.
In Weeks 8-9, when Willis started, the Titans ran the ball on early downs at 72% rate. Their pass rate over expectation was -28%. Simply put, play Derrick Henry and nobody else. - Chigoziem Okonkwo is probably the only “starter” you can play, but it’s still super risky. He led the Titans in targets (5, 24%) and receiving yards (51) in Willis’ two starts. However, Treylon Burks did not play in either of those games.
- The rookie TE led the team in targets (5), catching 4 for 54 yards in Week 15. He out-produced Austin Hooper (2-33 on 4 targets) again. And more importantly, he played more snaps (60% vs. 48%) and ran one more route than Hooper (56%).
- The uptick in usage is encouraging, but Okonkwo will have to make by on limited volume to deliver for fantasy managers.
- The targets are there for the taking for Cole Kmet in the Bears offense with all the injuries to their WRs. He owns a 26% target share in his last 3 games played without Darnell Mooney with only one top-1o finish.
- In Week 15, Kmet caught 4 passes for 25 yards on a team-high 5 targets.
- With inclement weather on tap in Week 16 featuring winds up to 23 mph and temperatures in the single digits, we could easily see the Bears go full-on operation ground-and-pound like they did earlier in the year.
- That could leave Kmet with little to work with, even as the team’s No. 1 pass-catcher.
- And the matchup specifically versus the Buffalo Bills defense is tough. They rank 1st in DVOA against tight ends this season and have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to the position since Week 8.
- Tight end Gerald Everett finished Week 15 with 6 targets catching 4 balls for 42 yards.
- But No.2 tight end Donald Parham went 3-35 on his 3 targets.
- Parham’s return reduced Everett’s role substantially as the starter ran a route on just 62% of dropbacks. Not great for Everett’s fantasy value for the rest of the season, with Parham being a thorn in his side.
- Not to mention, he has a tough matchup to overcome versus the Colts stingy defense in Week 16.
- Indianapolis ranks fourth in fewest fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends since Week 4.
- They have allowed just 39 receiving yards per game to all TEs they have faced over that time frame. And they have recently held T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth all under 40 receiving yards in their last 3 games played.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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