What a challenging year this has been for fantasy football. Initially, there was player performance volatility. Then it became a war of attrition for fantasy teams as players have been dropping like flies. I have also suffered battle wounds. For instance, in a prominent best ball, I was ranked first in a field of 288 two weeks before the playoffs. I then lost a running back and fell to third overall heading into the playoffs. Meanwhile, in another, I was first in my division and advanced to the top 16 out of 192 participants. I then suffered more injuries, and with no waivers, I got bounced in the first round of both tournaments.
Additionally, I was in a tie for second overall in my 14-team dynasty league, needing eight points from Kyler Murray to get the win and secure a first-round Bye. Lo and behold, he tore his ACL on the game’s third play. So instead, I tumbled to the sixth seed and now have to win the next two rounds to make the championship bout. Talk about a bad beat.
On the positive side, following some shaky advice to start, I am now hitting on over 61% of my calls. That number is down slightly from nearly 70% over the last two seasons. However, I’m up to 81% over the previous two weeks, when it has counted the most. Read below for my Week 15 recommendations.
If you are new to this column, it focuses on some of the players I feel are the safest or riskiest starts in fantasy football each week, especially relative to their ranking in the PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). It will mainly include more of the under-the-radar players. Always start your studs, as the big names will be omitted each week except in extreme circumstances. You can ask me start-sit questions on Twitter.
Safest Starts
Brian Robinson (RB – WAS)
I’ve often recommended starting Brian Robinson when answering lineup questions, even when the fantasy community buried him in their rankings. Perhaps his early-season injury setback or because he cedes some work to Antonio Gibson are the reasons for that. However, I’ve been a believer in him since the draft. Robinson displays the drive, power, shiftiness, and pass-blocking and receiving skills needed at the position. He is also functioning as the workhorse back for The Washington Commanders. Over his last five games, the rookie averaged over 18 touches a game and had over 100 scrimmage yards in the previous two. That includes Week 13, the last time the Commanders faced the Giants. Robinson tallied 96 yards on the ground in that matchup and added 15 yards on two receptions. The G-Men have been getting pounded by running backs over the last month, allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position in that span. Robinson will receive an additional boost if DL Leonard Williams remains shelved by an injury.
Michael Pittman (WR – IND)
Believe it or not, the Colts and Michael Pittman have played better football since interim head coach Jeff Saturday took over. Since that time, Pittman is averaging nine targets and nearly 15 points a game outside of his dud versus Cowboys star CB Trevon Diggs in Week 13. No other team has allowed more fantasy points to outside wide receivers than the Vikings. Minnesota also ranks 30th in DVOA versus the short passing game, where Matt Ryan earns his bread. This week, Pittman should be in lineups in leagues of all shapes and sizes.
Mike White (QB – NYJ)
Health issues aside, Mike White is the top streaming option at the QB position. Before last week, White averaged over 25 fantasy points per game in leagues that award six points for passing TDs. He has also thrown for 952 yards over his three games as the starter. Against the Bills, he managed to throw for 268 yards despite suffering rib injuries that caused him to leave the game twice. Now White gets a juicy matchup against the lowly Lions. Detroit’s defense is surrendering the most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season.
Riskiest Starts
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
The Detroit Lions have been red hot lately, with Jared Goff guiding them to victories in four of their last five games. Goff is having his best statistical season since he led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII in 2018. Despite that, starting him against the Jets feels like point chasing. His home/road splits are worrisome since he averages less than 10 fantasy points per game when he’s away from the friendly confines of Ford Field. Additionally, he fares worse in tough matchups. The Jets are a top 3 NFL defense. They are allowing the eighth fewest fantasy points to QBs this season and have only improved over the last month. No team has scored multiple passing touchdowns in a game against them since Week 3. They also just held Josh Allen to 16 completions on 27 pass attempts for only 147 yards and one TD, and Goff doesn’t possess Allen’s rushing upside. There probably aren’t more preferable QB options available to start for fantasy. Just realize Goff is liable to fall outside of the top 12 in this one.
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)
Leonard Fournette is being overtaken in the backfield by teammate Rashaad White. Whether it was due to his battle with injuries or the game script, he was out-carried by White 13-4 against San Francisco. He has now played less than 50% of the offensive snaps in two of the last three games. It doesn’t help his case that Cincinnati has held three of their previous five running back opponents to less than 60 rushing yards. White is the preferred pass-catching back. He could be busy in this one since the Buccaneers may have to throw a lot to keep pace with one of the league’s most lethal offenses in the Bengals.
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Bonnie Robinson is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Bonnie, check out her profile and find her on Twitter @FantasyQueenB.
