The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football smash plays – guys that you are either usually starting or are on the FLEX fringe that have massive boom/upside potential above expectation – for the upcoming week.

Embrace these guys, and don’t be afraid to start them over another “safer” option – preferably a higher-ranked option – from my Week 15 fantasy football rankings.

Batter up.

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Fantasy Football Smash City: Week 15

RUNNING BACKS

J.K. Dobbins (RB – BAL)

• The Ravens should easily be able to run the ball over the Browns run defense that ranks third in yards per carry allowed to RBs this season (5.2).
• 4th-best run-blocking OL/DL matchup per the 33rd team’s Trenches Matchup Tool.
• The Browns will also not have starting inside linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah who will miss the rest of the season with a foot injury.
• The last time the Ravens faced the Browns (Week 7), they posted a pass rate over expectation of -19%. They passed on early downs on just 40% of their offensive plays.
• Gus Edwards rushed 16 times for 66 yards and two rushing TDs.
• But last week, J.K. Dobbins reclaimed the RB1 duties.
• The Ravens activated Dobbins off IR, and he delivered a massive performance, rushing 15 times for 120 yards and one score. 48% opportunity share with the start in hand while playing a team-high 43% of the offensive snaps.
• He also earned the lone carry inside the 10-yard line which he scored on. Edwards was also efficient (13-66) but didn’t score.
• Kenyan Drake had one carry for 1 yard (also fumbled) but was the only RB with targets (2).

Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC)

• Jerick McKinnon had a DAY in Week 14! Seven catches for 112 yards on nine targets (55% route participation, 38% target rate) and two TDs. Also added 6 for 22 as a rusher.
• He’s emerging as a legitimate threat in the KC passing offense.
• McKinnon also out-snapped Isiah Pacheco (57% to 43%) for the second consecutive week. We saw the Chiefs turn to McKinnon more down the stretch last season, so it’s not too surprising to see his role growing, with a 57% route participation in Week 14. The coaches’ trust in him is super apparent based on his constant usage in the red zone.
• McKinnon is the RB3 in points per game and the RB12 in expected fantasy points per game over the last 2 weeks. He also ranks second on the team in receptions and targets since Week 10.
• But Pacheco is still the go-to guy on early downs, with a team-high 13 carries for 70 yards. Also saw the highest opportunity share at 52%, with three targets to boot.
• Both RBs should be started during the fantasy playoffs, with matchups versus the Texans, Seahawks and Broncos upcoming. Wheels up.
• Houston is the prime spot for Pacheco and/or McKinnon to erupt, as they have allowed the most rushing yards per game (141) to RBs this season.

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB -WAS)

• Brian Robinson dominated the backfield touches, carrying the ball 21 times for 96 rushing yards in Week 13 versus the New York Giants. Antonio Gibson had just 9 for 39. Both caught two passes, but Gibson saw more targets (4 vs. 2) and ran more routes 25 vs. 12.
  B-Rob earned a 62% opportunity share, but Gibson played more snaps (49% vs. 47%).
• It’s a pretty clear split backfield between Gibson and Robinson, with Robinson the preferred rusher and Gibson the preferred receiver. The game script will likely influence their usage week-to-week.
  But all things being equal, Robinson is probably the Commander RBs you want to start in Week 15, based on his volume over the last four weeks.
• He has averaged 21 touches per game versus Gibson’s 15
• New York is allowing 127 rushing yards per game on the ground since Week 7.
• Leaders in rushing EPA since Week 10: Miles Sanders, Jeff Wilson, AJ Dillon, and Brian Robinson
• Robinson ranks second in total rushing first downs since Week 10.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR – IND)

• Since Week 6, the Vikings are also allowing the most fantasy points per game to WR.
• 1st in points allowed to perimeter WRs (20.6) and second in fantasy points allowed to slot WRs (26.24).
• Michael Pittman Jr. owns a 25% target share over the last four games, with Matt Ryan under center averaging 5.5 catches for 51 receiving yards (8 targets per game).
• Minnesota also ranks 30th in DVOA versus the short passing game versus 13th against the deep ball.
• Matt Ryan has posted a very-low 6.6 aDOT over the last four weeks (32nd out of 37 QBs).

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)

• Tyler Lockett is set to SMASH as the 49ers can’t stop slot WRs.
  Dating back to Week 7 when Jimmie Ward took over starting slot coverage duties: 4th-most fantasy points allowed to slot WRs.
• Ward has allowed 38 completions for 318 yards and 3 TDs on 46 targets from the slot.
• Last week vs. the Buccaneers, he was targeted in coverage on 17 throws.
• Lockett has averaged 17.8 PPR fantasy points per game since Week 7.

Mike Williams (WR – LAC)

• Since Week 6, the Titans are allowing 3rd-most air yards and fantasy points per game to WRs.
• Second-most to perimeter WRs.
• The Titans defense has faced the highest passing rate and ranks last in DVOA vs. the deep ball.
• The Chargers rank second overall in pass-play rate and fourth in pass rate over expectation.
• Mike Williams made his long-awaited return to the starting lineup and delivered BIG under the lights in Week 14. He caught all 6 of his targets for 116 receiving yards and 1 TD while running a route on 73% of the dropbacks.
• He seemed to be on a slight pitch count as he played fewer snaps than Josh Palmer (4-53 on six targets).
• Williams will be a strong play in Week 15 vs. the pass-funnel Titans defense.

Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ)

• Elijah Moore led the Jets with 10 targets (23% target share, 104 air yards), catching 6 for 60 yards while running a route on 91% of the dropbacks in Week 14.
• With the second-year WR back into a full-time role, he can be trusted in a juicy matchup vs. the Lions in Week 15.
• Their defense has been destroyed by slot WRs this season. Since Week 6, no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to slot WRs than the Detroit Lions (26.9)

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR -CLE)

• Since Week 6, the Baltimore Ravens have completely shut down opposing running games. They rank fifth in fewest fantasy points allowed, facing the fifth-lowest number of rushes per game (18) and allowing just 54 rushing yards per game – the second-best mark in the NFL over that span. No. 3 overall in rush defense DVOA.
• Since Week 6…16th in pass defense DVOA allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. However, they are allowing the second-highest catch rate to WRs.
• The Ravens are allowing the most yards and the 3rd-most targets to No. 2 WRs, with Marlon Humphrey locking down most No. 1 wideouts.
• Baltimore ranks 30th in DVOA vs. deep ball this season.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones led all Browns with eight catches for 114 yards on 12 targets (31% target share) in Week 14. He played 100% of the snaps and ran a route on 100% of dropbacks, as he has for most of the season.
• DPJ has a 25% target share over the last two games with Watson under center and a team-high 47% air yards share. In just Week 14, Peoples-Jones was targeted deep five times for 178 air yards.
• Browns OC Alex Van Pelt said deep attempts from Watson should start to come as he gets more comfortable in the coming weeks.

TIGHT ENDS

Dawson Knox (TE- BUF)

• Dawson Knox led the Bills with 7 targets (4-41-1, 26% target share), followed by Stefon Diggs(5, 3-37) and Isaiah McKenzie(5, 3-21) in Week 14.
• Knox also led the team with a measly 65 air yards, as the Buffalo passing game was limited by weather conditions and the Jets’ elite secondary.
• Although the Bills tight end ran a route on 94% of the dropbacks.
• That usage alone along with his increase in targets will put him in the TE1 conversation vs. the Miami Dolphins in Week 15.
• Miami has allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points to tight ends this season.

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