Are you nervous? The Week 15 action hasn’t begun yet, but my palms are sweaty already. What can I say? That fantasy playoff anxiety hits me every December.
Before we get to the tiers, let me humbly offer one small piece of advice:
Remove the word “upside” from your vocabulary for the next three weeks.
Fantasy managers clamor for upside when making their lineup decisions this time of year. “I need upside!” The problem is that some fantasy managers let the quest for upside turn into an excuse for suboptimal decision-making. They trick themselves into thinking that even though Player A is a better percentage play than Player B, they should use Player B because he has more upside.
Don’t talk yourself into starting less talented, less reliable players because you envision some rosy best-case scenario for those flyer types. Stick to the process that got you here. Play the percentages. Don’t go off the rails just because you’re playing in elimination games now. Bizarro lineup decisions work out sometimes. But usually, they do not work out. Don’t make the sort of silly lineup decision that will have you kicking yourself for months afterward.
This is the most important week of your fantasy season. Don’t get cute.
As always, feel free to use the tiered rankings below as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. I’ll offer brief thoughts on a handful of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. Rankings are based on half-point PPR scoring.
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Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 15 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice
QUARTERBACKS
Check out Fitz’s quarterback rankings here
Tier 1
Jalen Hurts (@ CHI)
Patrick Mahomes (@ HOU)
Josh Allen (vs. MIA)
Tier 2
Justin Herbert (vs. TEN)
Joe Burrow (@ TB)
Justin Fields (vs. PHI)
Tier 3
Kirk Cousins (vs. IND)
Dak Prescott (@ JAC)
Trevor Lawrence (vs. DAL)
Geno Smith (vs. SF)
Aaron Rodgers (vs. LAR)
Tier 4
Tom Brady (vs. CIN)
Tua Tagovailoa (@ BUF)
Deshaun Watson (vs. BAL)
Daniel Jones (@ WAS)
Mac Jones (@ LV)
Jared Goff (@ NYJ)
Tier 5
Derek Carr (vs. NE)
Brock Purdy (@ SEA)
Matt Ryan (@ MIN)
Ryan Tannehill (@ LAC)
Andy Dalton (vs. ATL)
Tyler Huntley (@ CLE)
Taylor Heinicke (vs. NYG)
Desmond Ridder (@ NO)
Tier 6
Zach Wilson (vs. DET)
Sam Darnold (vs. PIT)
Colt McCoy (@ DEN)
Mitch Trubisky (@ CAR)
Brett Rypien (vs. ARI)
Baker Mayfield (@ GB)
Davis Mills (vs. KC)
Through the first 11 weeks of the season, Tua Tagovailoa averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game. Over the least three weeks, he’s averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game. Tua’s completion percentage over the last three weeks is 51.6%. But during that three-game stretch, he’s averaging a perfectly respectable 7.6 yards per pass attempt. If you want to fade Tua this week because of the “slump” and because he’s facing a Bills defense that’s giving up 14.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, fine. But please don’t fade him because of the gameday forecast in Buffalo, which is calling for snow and 10-15 mph winds. It’s not going to be the sort of blizzard-like snow that can affect passing games, and that isn’t a substantial wind. I’m ranking Tua as a low-end QB1.
In his last five December home games, Aaron Rodgers has 15 TD passes and one interception. Pass-catching weaponry was a problem for Rodgers early in the season, but he now has a formidable WR duo in Christian Watson and Allen Lazard, and the Packers are expected to get Romeo Doubs back from a high-ankle sprain this week. Rodgers profiles as a low-end QB1 against a Rams pass defense that isn’t as daunting as it used to be.
Jared Goff has averaged 303.3 passing yards over this last three games, with seven TD passes and no interceptions over that stretch. He also has an embarrassment of riches at wide receiver now that D.J. Chark, Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams are all healthy, joining dynamic alpha receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. But Goff is just a high-end QB2 this week in a tough road matchup against the Jets, who are allowing the third-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.8), the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs (15.1) and have the second-lowest opponent passer rating (78.1).
Mac Jones, a deep streamer to consider, gets a matchup against a Raiders pass defense that turned Baker Mayfield into a superhero last week.
RUNNING BACKS
Check out Fitz’s running back rankings here
Tier 1
Christian McCaffrey (@ SEA)
Derrick Henry (@ LAC)
Jonathan Taylor (@ MIN)
Austin Ekeler (vs. TEN)
Josh Jacobs (vs. NE)
Tier 2
Dalvin Cook (vs. IND)
Nick Chubb (vs. BAL)
Tony Pollard (@ JAC)
Miles Sanders (@ CHI)
Isiah Pacheco (@ HOU)
Alvin Kamara (vs. ATL)
Aaron Jones (vs. LAR)
Tier 3
Travis Etienne (vs. DAL)
Joe Mixon (@ TB)
James Conner (@ DEN)
Saquon Barkley (@ WAS)
David Montgomery (vs. PHI)
J.K. Dobbins (@ CLE)
Ezekiel Elliott (@ JAC)
Raheem Mostert (@ BUF)
Najee Harris (@ CAR)
Zonovan Knight (vs. DET)
Tier 4
D’Onta Foreman (vs. PIT)
Kenneth Walker (vs. SF)
Brian Robinson (vs. NYG)
Latavius Murray (vs. ARI)
Rhamondre Stevenson (@LV)
Jamaal Williams (@ NYJ)
Rachaad White (vs. CIN)
A.J. Dillon (vs. LAR)
D’Andre Swift (@ NYJ)
Cordarrelle Patterson (@ NO)
Devin Singletary (vs. MIA)
Jerick McKinnon (@ HOU)
Antonio Gibson (vs. NYG)
Cam Akers (@ GB)
Tier 5
James Cook (vs. MIA)
Leonard Fournette (vs. CIN)
Dare Ogunbowale (vs. KC)
Gus Edwards (@ CLE)
Tyler Allgeier (@ NO)
Michael Carter (vs. DET)
Kareem Hunt (vs. BAL)
Samaje Perine (@ TB)
Rex Burkhead (vs. KC)
Tier 6
Kevin Harris (@LV)
Pierre Strong (@LV)
Chuba Hubbard (vs. PIT)
Jeff Wilson Jr. (@ BUF)
Jaylen Warren (@ CAR)
Jordan Mason (@ SEA)
Travis Homer (vs. SF)
Kyren Williams (@ GB)
Marlon Mack (vs. ARI)
David Montgomery should probably be in your starting lineup this week. In the three games that Bears backup RB Khalil Herbert has missed, Montgomery has averaged 19.3 opportunities (carries + targets) and 100.3 yards from scrimmage. From Week 11 to Week 13 — the first three games after Herbert got hurt — Montgomery was the RB6 in half-point PPR formats. The Bears have been the NFL’s run-heaviest team this season, and they certainly aren’t going to abandon the run against the Eagles, whose pass defense is among the best in the league.
J.K. Dobbins says he still isn’t all the way back from the devastating knee injury he sustained in August 2021, but his 15-120-1 rushing day against the Steelers last week was impressive nonetheless. I’m treating him as a midrange RB2 this week in a favorable matchup against the Browns, who have given up the third-most fantasy points to running backs.
Since Week 7, D’Onta Foreman has averaged 19.3 carries and 85.7 rushing yards per game. Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear are involved in the Carolina running game, too, but the Panthers gave their three running backs 39 carries last week while doing their best to try to hide QB Sam Darnold. There was plenty of work to go around. Foreman faces the Steelers — a neutral matchup for RBs. The Panthers are slight favorites, so they’ll most likely have a run-friendly game script and should be able to hammer away on the ground yet again.
If you have any sort of stake in the Patriots’ backfield, you’ll have to monitor injury reports over the next few days. New England’s lead RB, Rhamondre Stevenson, sustained an ankle injury in Week 14 and didn’t practice on Wednesday. Damien Harris, who’s missed the last two games with a thigh injury, was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday. Harris should be considered a low-end RB2 if he plays against the Raiders on Sunday and Stevenson doesn’t. If neither is able to play. Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong would divide work, though it’s not clear who’d carry more of the load. They both looked good Monday night against the Cardinals after Stevenson went down. If Stevenson and Damien Harris are both out, I’ll rank Kevin Harris and Strong as low-end RB3s.
Seahawks rookie Kenneth Walker is expected to return from an ankle injury but has a brutal matchup against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards and fantasy points to RBs. San Francisco has given up only five touchdowns to running backs all season.
The Detroit backfield has gotten messy. It seemed safe to use D’Andre Swift again after he had 111 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown vs. the Jaguars in Week 13, but Swift fell back to Earth with 6-21-0 rushing and 3-18-0 receiving last week against the Vikings. Swift had a 51% snap share in Week 13 but only a 36% snap share in Week 14. Jamaal Williams has a league-high 14 TD runs, but there are reasons to be concerned about him, too. Over his last six games, Williams is averaging 57 rushing yards and just 3.35 yards per carry. The last time Williams had a game in which he averaged 4.0 yards per carry or better was Oct. 30. Williams hasn’t caught a pass in his last six games. The TD production has been terrific, but Williams will be facing a Jets defense that has yielded only seven TD runs to RBs. Treat Williams and Swift as high-end RB3s this week.
Cordarrelle Patterson scored five touchdowns in his first five games of the season, but he’s gone without a TD in his last four games. I still think C-Patt is a decent fantasy option this week. The Falcons have run the ball on 56% of their offensive snaps this season, and they might lean even more heavily on the running game than usual in order to lighten rookie QB Desmond Ridder‘s load in his first NFL start. It’s worth noting that Patterson ran for 120 yards and a touchdown against the Saints in Week 1 and had 126 receiving yards in a 2021 game against New Orleans.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Check out Fitz’s wide receiver rankings here
Tier 1
Justin Jefferson (vs. IND)
Ja’Marr Chase (@ TB)
Davante Adams (vs. NE)
Stefon Diggs (vs. MIA)
Tyreek Hill (@ BUF)
Tier 2
A.J. Brown (@ CHI)
CeeDee Lamb (@ JAC)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (@ NYJ)
Tier 3
D.K. Metcalf (vs. SF)
Mike Williams (vs. TEN)
Terry McLaurin (vs. NYG)
Keenan Allen (vs. TEN)
Chris Godwin (vs. CIN)
Tyler Lockett (vs. SF)
Garrett Wilson (vs. DET)
Jaylen Waddle (@ BUF)
Christian Watson (vs. LAR)
Christian Kirk (vs. DAL)
DeAndre Hopkins (@ DEN)
DeVonta Smith (@ CHI)
Chris Olave (vs. ATL)
Amari Cooper (vs. BAL)
Tier 4
Brandon Aiyuk (@ SEA)
Mike Evans (vs. CIN)
JuJu Smith-Schuster (@ HOU)
Michael Pittman (@ MIN)
Tee Higgins (@ TB)
Jerry Jeudy (vs. ARI)
Allen Lazard (vs. LAR)
Zay Jones (vs. DAL)
D.J. Moore (vs. PIT)
Tier 5
George Pickens (@ CAR)
Diontae Johnson (@ CAR)
Adam Thielen (vs. IND)
Michael Gallup (@ JAC)
Gabe Davis (vs. MIA)
Donovan Peoples-Jones (vs. BAL)
Marquise Brown (@ DEN)
Drake London (@ NO)
Darius Slayton (@ WAS)
Joshua Palmer (vs. TEN)
Tier 6
Curtis Samuel (vs. NYG)
Chris Moore (vs. KC)
D.J. Chark (@ NYJ)
Elijah Moore (vs. DET)
Jakobi Meyers (@ LV)
Alec Pierce (@ MIN)
Parris Campbell (@ MIN)
Jahan Dotson (vs. NYG)
Tier 7
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (@ LAC)
Robert Woods (@ LAC)
Tutu Atwell (@ GB)
Tyler Boyd (@TB)
Mack Hollins (vs. NE)
Isaiah Hodgins (@ WAS)
Isaiah McKenzie (vs. MIA)
Van Jefferson (@ GB)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@ HOU)
Demarcus Robinson (@ CLE)
Terrace Marshall (vs. PIT)
Richie James (@ WAS)
It’s been feast or famine with JuJu Smith-Schuster this year. He’s had six games with 74 or more receiving yards and six games with 46 or fewer receiving yards. But since Week 6, he’s been the WR16 in fantasy points per game (half-point PPR), and I’ll happily take my chances with the No. 1 wide receiver for Patrick Mahomes, who’s averaging 320 passing yards a game.
I currently have Jerry Jeudy ranked WR25, but I’ll move him down a few spots if Russell Wilson isn’t able to clear the concussion protocol and the Broncos are forced to start backup QB Brett Rypien. Jeudy had 8-73-3 last week on nine targets, and one of his three touchdowns came on a pass from Rypien. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (hamstring) is likely to be out again, and WR Kendall Hinton (hamstring) could be out, too, giving Jeudy an enhanced target outlook against a poor Cardinals pass defense. But a double-digit target count wouldn’t necessarily be that valuable if Rypien is the target delivery mechanism.
What do we do with Allen Lazard? From Week 6 of 2021 to Week 9 of 2022, Lazard had 13 touchdowns in 17 regular-season games. But Lazard has gone scoreless in his last four games, while Packers rookie Christian Watson has piled up eight touchdowns in Green Bay’s last four games. It would be naive to think that Watson’s emergence hasn’t devalued Lazard to some degree, but Lazard has still been involved, with 15 catches during Watson’s torrid four-game stretch. I consider Lazard a midrange WR3 this week against a Rams defense that isn’t as tough on WRs as it used to be. The Rams have given up the sixth-most receptions and 12th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Remember what I said about chasing upside in the introduction to this article? Generally, I think the whole “I need upside” thing is folly. But Gabe Davis might be an exception. I wouldn’t start Davis ahead of receivers I have ranked 6-10 spots higher, but I’d consider starting him ahead of receivers I have ranked a couple of spots higher if I were an underdog in my Week 15 matchup and needed to land a few haymakers to pull off an upset. Davis has had fewer than 40 receiving yards in three straight games and five of his last seven. He’s had only one game this season in which he’s seen more than seven targets. But Davis has turned in a 3-171-2 game, a 6-93-1 game, a 4-88-1 game and a 3-74-1 game this season. This is a dude who can land a heavy punch. Just realize there’s a good chance he’ll swing and miss.
In Marquise Brown‘s first two games back from a foot injury, he’s had 10-80-0, averaging 5.0 yards per target. For the season, he’s averaging a career-low 10.7 yards per catch. Brown has a tough matchup against the Broncos this week, and he’s going to be catching passes from backup QB Colt McCoy after starter Kyler Murray tore his ACL on Monday night. Brown is just a high-end WR4 this week.
With Brandon Cooks and Nico Collins both out last week for the Texans, seventh-year veteran Chris Moore stepped into the breach and had a career-best 10-124-0 day against the Cowboys. Moore commanded a whopping 40.7% target share against Dallas and looked terrific. Never before has Moore been able to carve out a significant role as a pass catcher, but he’s made a nice career for himself as a special teamer, and perhaps seven years of practices and meetings have helped Moore hone his craft as a pass catcher. The Week 15 status of Cooks (calf) and Collins (foot) is uncertain, but the 1-11-1 Texans have little incentive to rush either one back. Moore is an intriguing deep-league play against a Chiefs defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs.
TIGHT ENDS
Check out Fitz’s tight end rankings here
Tier 1
Travis Kelce (@ HOU)
Tier 2
Mark Andrews (@ CLE)
T.J. Hockenson (vs. IND)
Dalton Schultz (@ JAC)
George Kittle (@ SEA)
Greg Dulcich (vs. ARI)
David Njoku (vs. BAL)
Dallas Goedert (@ CHI)
Pat Freiermuth (@ CAR)
Tier 3
Evan Engram (vs. DAL)
Gerald Everett (vs. TEN)
Cole Kmet (vs. PHI)
Chigoziem Okonkwo (@ LAC)
Austin Hooper (@ LAC)
Tier 4
Darren Waller (vs. NE)
Taysom Hill (vs. ATL)
Tyler Conklin (vs. DET)
Hunter Henry (@ LV)
Tyler Higbee (@ GB)
Dawson Knox (vs. MIA)
Tier 5
Noah Fant (vs. SF)
Cade Otton (vs. CIN)
Jordan Akins (vs. KC)
Jelani Woods (@ MIN)
Robert Tonyan (vs. LAR)
Tier 6
Will Dissly (vs. SF)
Logan Thomas (vs. NYG)
Mike Gesicki (@ BUF)
Trey McBride (@ DEN)
Daniel Bellinger (@ WAS)
Noah Gray (@ HOU)
Dallas Goedert has spent four weeks on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, but the Eagles have opened the 21-day practice window for him to return, and some of the team’s beat writers are reporting that Goedert has a reasonable chance to return for this week’s game against the Bears. I’m tentatively ranking Goedert as a midrange TE1, and I wouldn’t hesitate to play him if he’s cleared for action. Goedert is averaging 10.2 fantasy points per game in half-point PPR, putting him third in that category behind only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
The Arizona Cardinals have been getting destroyed by tight ends all season, and it’s Greg Dulcich‘s turn to lay waste to the Cards. Arizona has given up the most receptions (86), receiving yards (950) and TD catches (9) to tight ends. Dulcich has 9-127-0 on 16 targets over his past two games, and he could see plenty of targets this weekend with Broncos WRs Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton both questionable due to hamstring injuries. The only catch is that if Broncos QB Russell Wilson isn’t able to clear the concussion protocol, Dulcich will be getting those targets from Brett Rypien.
As with Dallas Goedert, the Raiders’ Darren Waller (hamstring) has been designated to return from injured reserve. It’s hard to be quite as bullish on Waller as we have to be on Goedert. In his four full games this season, Waller has 16-175-1. Waller used to command massive target volume, but those days are gone now that Davante Adams is around. Still, if Waller suits up this weekend, we should probably regard him as a high-end TE2 — not a slam-dunk starter, but a viable lineup option.
Titans rookie Chigoziem Okonkwo is fun to watch. He’s athletic and hard to tackle, with a mean stiff arm. We want to find tight ends with traits – size, athleticism, explosiveness — but the key is finding a TE who has those traits and plays in an offense that uses them. We may have that with Okonkwo, because the Titans’ offense is straight out of the 1970s. They run the ball a lot and throw to their tight ends at a high rate. Tennessee’s TEs have been targeted on 26.8% of team pass attempts, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Okonkwo has seen at least five targets in three straight games. I currently have Okonkwo ranked as a midrange TE2, but I’ll move him up 4-5 spots if Titans WR Treylon Burks misses a second straight game due to a concussion.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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