Matthew Freedman | Thu, Dec 15th 2022, 11:17am EST

Fantasy Football Week 15 Player Projections (2022)

In this piece are my personal NFL Week 15 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).

This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.

Wednesday: Do first pass of player projections in the late morning.
Thursday: Do initial update in the afternoon before Thursday Night Football.
Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.

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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 15 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.

While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.

NFL Week 15 Player Projections

My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables to save space.

After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.

Note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 12 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.

NFL Week 15 QB Projections

NFL Week 15 QB Notes

Jalen Hurts (PHI) at CHI: Since the Week 8 bye, Hurts has 1,643-16-1 passing with a nice 69.1% completion rate and 9.4 AY/A and 62-393-4 rushing in seven games. Hurts has steadily progressed as a passer throughout his career and now ranks No. 2 in AY/A (8.9) and No. 3 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.161, per RBs Don't Matter). Hurts has an incredibly high Konami Code floor, given that he's No. 1 at the position in carries inside the five-yard line (18, per our Red Zone Stats Report) and total carries (139, per our Fantasy Football Stats Report). For the season, Hurts is the No. 1 quarterback with 26.0 FPPG (per our Fantasy Football Leaders Report). The Bears are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (51.3%) and pass DVOA (27.6%, per Football Outsiders). Hurts is now the MVP frontrunner (-175 at DraftKings).

Justin Herbert (LAC) vs. TEN: In his four games since No. 1 WR Keenan Allen returned in Week 11, Herbert has been at his best (1,256-7-1 passing, 71.4% completion rate), and he was especially strong in Week 14 (367-1-0 passing, 76.5% completion rate) with the reappearance of No. 2 WR Mike Williams. For the season, Herbert is No. 2 with 379 completions, 561 pass attempts overall and 156 pass attempts of 10-plus yards (per our Advanced QB Stats Report). The Titans are No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (22.1 FPPG).

Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. LAR: Say whatever you want about Rodgers, but he's No. 2 in the league with nine multi-touchdown passing games. The Rams are No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.126). For his career, Rodgers is 67-37-3 ATS at home, 98-70-3 ATS as a favorite and 9-3-1 ATS off the bye in the regular season (per Action Network).

NFL Week 15 RB Projections

NFL Week 15 RB Notes

Christian McCaffrey (SF) at SEA: Since McCaffrey became a full-time player for the 49ers in Week 8, he has 680 yards and six touchdowns on 81 carries and 33 receptions (plus a 34-yard touchdown pass) in six games. Without QB Jimmy Garoppolo (foot, IR), No. 2 RB Elijah Mitchell (knee, IR) and WR Deebo Samuel (ankle), McCaffrey could have a heavy workload this week. Since McCaffrey joined the 49ers in Week 7, they are No. 1 in the league with a 27.6% target share for running backs (per our Targets Distribution Report), and McCaffrey has led the team with 41 targets. The Seahawks are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (30.6%) and No. 2 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (26.0 FPPG).

Miles Sanders (PHI) at CHI: Since the Week 7 bye, Sanders has 626 yards and seven touchdowns on 99 carries and 19 targets in seven games. The Eagles are No. 3 with a 50.4% rush rate and could have a run-heavy game script as big home favorites (-400 at FanDuel). The Bears are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (44.0%).

Isiah Pacheco (KC) at HOU: No. 2 RB Jerick McKinnon has been the flashier producer over the past two weeks (194 yards, three touchdowns on 14 carries, 11 targets), but Pacheco has had a steady 15-plus opportunities in each game as the lead back ever since former starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire was demoted to the No. 3 role in Week 10. Pacheco could benefit from a run-heavy game script as a big favorite (-900 at Caesars). The Texans are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (27.4 FPPG). The Chiefs have a week-high 32-point implied total in our Week 15 DFS cheat sheet.

Check out our DFS lineup optimizer, which is just one of our many FantasyPros DFS tools.

NFL Week 15 WR Projections

NFL Week 15 WR Notes

Justin Jefferson (MIN) vs. IND: Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, Jefferson has averaged 101.0 yards on 9.7 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.4 yards per target. Jefferson is No. 1 in the league with 59, 25, 14 and six receptions of 10-, 20-, 30- and 40-plus yards (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Jefferson is No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,516 yards receiving in his first three seasons. The Colts are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (19.7%).

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) vs. DET: Wilson has dramatic splits this year without benched QB Zach Wilson, averaging just 6.5 FPPG with him but 16.2 on 10.7 targets in six games without him. WR Corey Davis (concussion) exited Week 14 early and is uncertain for Week 15, so Wilson could see extra targets in his absence. The Lions are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (33.7 FPPG).

Mike Williams (LAC) vs. TEN: Williams had a team-best 6-116-1 receiving on six targets in his Week 14 return from ankle injury, and in his eight games this year with a snap rate of at least 50% he has 43-611-4 receiving on 65 targets. The Titans are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 wide receivers (25.0%).

Marquise Goodwin (SEA) vs. SF: Since returning in Week 6 from a knee injury, Goodwin has 21-324-4 receiving on 25 targets with a 52% snap rate in seven games. In his three games this year with a touchdown, Goodwin has 16.4 FPPG; in his 16 career games with a touchdown, 15.5 FPPG - when Godwin finds the end zone he tends to go off. The 49ers are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against supplementary wide receivers (38.5%). "How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. ... Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!" If you're looking for a Hail Mary, Goodwin might be your prayer.

Check out my Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

NFL Week 15 TE Projections

NFL Week 15 TE Notes

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) vs. IND: Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, Hockenson is No. 2 on the team in targets (48) and receptions (36), and he barely trails WR Adam Thielen (294) at No. 3 in yards receiving (292). The Colts are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (19.0%).

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) at LAC: Blessed with an elite combination of size (6'3? and 238 pounds) and speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash), Okonkwo as a rookie has flashed electric playmaking ability (10.3 yards per target), and among all qualified tight ends he's No. 1 in the league with 2.58 yards per route (per PFF). Okonkwo leads all tight ends with three receptions of 40-plus yards (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet).

I'm taking over 8.0 fantasy points on Okonkwo in the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

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