The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football land mines — a guy you’re probably thinking about starting, but here’s why he might be a land mine that explodes your starting lineup — for the upcoming week.
Proceed with caution, and don’t be afraid to pivot to another option — preferably a higher-ranked option from my Week 15 fantasy football rankings.
Brace Yourself and Take Cover.
Check out all of our weekly fantasy football content
QUARTERBACKS
- After a hot start to the season, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins offense have cooled off considerably.
- He has failed to score more than 16 fantasy points in his last three games since the bye week.
- And his fantasy outlook hardly improves in a road game at Buffalo, where the Dolphins will be tasked with overcoming freezing temperatures and a surging Bills defense.
- No team has allowed fewer passing TDs per game at home this year than the Bills.
- And with Tre’Davious White back in the starting lineup, Buffalo has allowed fewer than 11 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs.
- Strongly consider the Dolphins’ lowly 17.5-point implied team total and stay far away from Tagovailoa in the first round of the fantasy football playoffs.
- Jared Goff has been lights out over the past few weeks, finishing as the QB4 overall versus the Jaguars and Vikings.
- However, he is in for a rude awakening this week on the road versus a red-hot New York Jets defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing QBs since Week 6.
- Not to mention, Goff has struggled immensely away from Ford Field. He has yet to finish higher than QB18 on the road this season.
- The Lions rank dead last in passing TDs/game when not at home.
RUNNINGS BACKS
- Devin Singletary led the Bills in carries (8 for 39) over James Cook (4 for 6) in Week 14.
- Both RBs caught one pass, but Singletary had more targets (1 vs. 2) and ran slightly more routes (15 vs. 13). The veteran also barely edged out Cook in snaps (49% vs. 41%).
- But the back-and-forth deployment makes Singletary impossible to trust in the fantasy playoffs.
- The fact that Cook’s snaps were still above 40%, as they were in Week 13, still signals an increasing role for the rookie at the detriment to Singletary.
- And the matchup versus the Dolphins in Week 15 is one you should want no part of. Miami has allowed the fifth fewest-rushing yards per game to RBs since Week 6.
- They’ve also allowed just 3.7 yards per carry to RBs in 2022, which ranks top-5 in the league.
- If you are starting any Bills RB – not recommended – it’d have to be Cook based on his snaps and the Dolphins defense allowing the 6th-most receiving yards per game to RBs this season.
- Look, people. It’s time to wake up when it comes to this Detroit Lions vastly improved run defense.
- Because long gone are the days when any RB facing the Lions would be teed up to smash.
- Since Week 6, the Lions are allowing the 2nd fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs. 72 rushing yards allowed per game (7th). 7th-fewest rushing attempts allowed per game (19).
- And although Knight is still the touch leader in the Jets backfield, the team still uses Michael Carter plenty in passing situations. Carter out-targeted Knight 6 vs. 2 and played 50% of the snaps in Week 14 to Knight’s 47% snap share.
- Rachaad White started and carried the ball 13 times for 56 yards to Leonard Fournette‘s 4 carries for 13 yards in Week 14.
- White (5 catches for 21 yards on five targets) and Fournette (6 catches for 33 yards on seven targets) were both peppered in the passing game.
- White (53%) and Fournette (47%) split snaps near 50/50, with most of Fournette’s snaps coming on receiving downs with Tampa down massive.
- He ran more routes (30 vs. 20) than White.
- But even so, White earned a 62% opportunity share with his 18 total touches to Fournette’s 11. However, he did fumble on the Bucs’ final possession.
- With Tampa Bay committing to a two-man rotation, I’d try to get away from White this week, given the matchup at hand.
- The Bengals rank third in run defense DVOA with defensive lineman D.J. Reader back in the lineup the last three weeks. They also rank 4th in DVOA vs. RBs in the passing game.
- Saquon Barkley came into Week 14 incredibly questionable, and fantasy managers would have been better off had he not played.
- The Giants’ RB1 totaled just nine carries for 28 yards and two catches for 20 yards. 11 total touches while playing just 31% of the snaps.
- He also went 0-for-3 on his carries inside the 10-yard line, which is why he was unable to salvage his fantasy day.
- Only one top-10 finish and the fourth-worst standing among all RBs in rushing EPA in his last four games.
- Barkley has one rush over 15 yards over that span.
- And it’s going to be another tough day for Barkley against Washington off their bye week in Week 15.
- Barkley did finish as the RB9 the last time he played the Commanders, but he still only rushed for 63 yards on 18 carries with one TD along with five catches for 18 yards.
- On the year, the Commanders are allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs and rank 4th in rush defense DVOA.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- Since Week 7, the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs (6.5).
- They also rank 1st in that category this season (5.6).
- Brandon Aiyuk has played just 26% of his snaps from the slot this season.
- Additionally, Seattle is allowing the fewest targets per game to No. 1 WRs.
- Considering Aiyuk only saw three targets last week – and just one before Deebo Samuel‘s injury – he could easily flop in a matchup versus the Seahawks that calls for massive games from Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
- Brutal matchup coming for Adam Thielen in Week 15 versus the run-funnel Indianapolis Colts. Their defense ranks fourth in rush rate faced this season, foreshadowing a big workload for Dalvin Cook and not necessarily Kirk Cousins.
- That will negatively impact Thielen, who got by last week on a 23-yard TD score. Not likely the case versus the Colts, who rank second in fewest fantasy points allowed per game to WRs.
- They also have been particularly stingy versus No. 2s, allowing the third-fewest yards (37.2) to opposing secondary WR options.
- Like his quarterback Jared Goff, DJ Chark has been on fire over the last couple of weeks. However, it’s a brand-new week which means we have to adjust expectations based on the matchup on deck versus the New York Jets.
- And over the past two weeks, we have successfully avoided lineup landmines by fading No. 2 WRs vs. Gang Green. 1st with Adam Thielen, and then again with Gabe Davis.
- Case in point, New York has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs since Week 6.
- They rank 8th in DVOA versus No. 2 WRs allowing the 5th-fewest receiving yards (38 yards per game) to opposing No. 2 WRs. Week 15 is not DJ Chark Week.
- Permission to bench Mike Evans granted.
- The Buccaneers big-bodied wideout has fallen far from grace with zero top-30 finishes in his last five games.
- And since Week 9 he owns just a 17% target share which ranks 53rd among all WRs.
- He hasn’t scored a TD since all the way back in Week 4. Woof.
- And I am not sure that things are going to turn around against a stout Bengals defense that has allowed a league-low 54% catch rate and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs since Week 9.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio