Week 14 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Welcome to Week 14, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

Want to read about only your players? Sync your team (free) to get My Primer

Week 14 QB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Derek Carr: Carr has been on a roll with QB1 outings in four of his last five games. Since Week 9, he is 18th in PFF passing grade, eighth in yards per attempt, seventh in big-time throw rate, and first in passing touchdowns (minimum 25 dropbacks). Since Week 8, the Rams have been 29th in pass defense DVOA. Over their last three games, they are bottom-three in passing yards per game, yards per attempt, and passer rating allowed. Carr is a QB1.

Mike White: Another week equaled another nice fantasy outing from White. Over the last two weeks, he has finished as QB6 and QB7 in fantasy. White is 18th in PFF passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and fifth in big-time throw rate (minimum 75 dropbacks). White is a QB2 with QB1 upside again this week. Buffalo’s pass defense has been on the skids. Over the last four weeks, they are 21st in success rate per dropback, 28th in passing yards per game, and 24th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Josh Allen: The last time Allen squared off against this defense, he completed 52.9% of his passes with 6.0 yards per attempt. He finished as the QB3 for the week on the strength of 86 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Over the last four weeks, Allen has rushed for at least 78 yards twice while not eclipsing 25 yards on the ground in the other two weeks. Since Week 10, Allen hasn’t been his usual superhuman self, but to say he’s been bad is grossly inaccurate. In his last four games, he’s fifth in PFF passing grade, first in big-time throw rate, and 12th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 75 dropbacks). Allen will need every ounce of his rushing upside this week against a stellar Jets’ secondary. Since Week 10, they have been fourth in passing yards per game, seventh in explosive pass rate, and eighth in success rate per dropback. Allen is a top-three fantasy quarterback weekly.

Deshaun Watson: This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Watson looked terrible last week in his first game back. He was QB30 for the week, completing 54.5% of his passes with 6.0 yards per attempt. Among 36 quarterbacks that took snaps last week, Watson was 31st in PFF passing grade, 11th in turnover-worthy play rate, and 33rd in adjusted completion rate. It’s difficult to trust Watson as anything more than a QB2 currently. Since Week 10, the Bengals have been tenth in success rate per dropback, 26th in passing yards per game, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. This is a good matchup for Watson to knock off the rust.

Dak Prescott: Since Week 7, Prescott has been playing at an extremely high level. He’s 11th in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and 14th in adjusted completion rate as the QB8 in fantasy. With Dallas deploying a run game focused offense, the biggest problem for Prescott has been volume. He has eclipsed 30 passing attempts only once this season. Houston doesn’t have an imposing secondary, but Dallas doesn’t need Prescott to air it out to win this week. Since Week 10, Houston has been 17th in success rate per dropback, 17th in EPA per drop back, and 11th in explosive pass rate allowed. Prescott is a low-end QB1.

Kirk Cousins: While Cousins might be the QB16 in fantasy this year, he’s finished as a QB1 in 50% of his games. Cousins is 14th in PFF passing grade, 11th in passing touchdowns, and sixth in big-time throws. He’s QB12 in expected fantasy points per game. Cousins is a borderline QB1 again this week. Detroit has improved its defense recently. Since Week 10, they are a middle-of-the-road secondary, ranking 17th in success rate per dropback and 17th in passing yards per game while remaining 29th in explosive pass rate allowed. The biggest worry is that Detroit is seventh in pressure rate across their last four games. The Vikings have counteracted this in previous weeks by quickly getting the ball out of Cousins’ hands, which will likely be the plan of attack in Week 14.

Jared Goff: Last week, with the reintegration of Swift, the return of Chark, and the continued domination of St. Brown, Goff found his way to another ceiling game. He concluded Week 13 as the QB4 with 340 passing yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, and two passing scores. That was Goff’s third game this season as a top-eight fantasy quarterback and his sixth with multiple passing touchdowns. Goff is a QB1 this week, facing off against an overrated Vikings pass defense. Since Week 10, Minnesota has been 26th in success rate per dropback, 32nd in passing yards per game, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. The Vikings are 31st in DVOA against short passing while allowing the second-most YAC in the NFL.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Week 14 WR Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Adam Thielen: If Detroit deploys man coverage as much as they did in Week 3, Thielen is in big trouble. Thielen’s efficiency overall has slid down the hill this year, so it’s not surprising that his stats against man have also bottomed out. Thielen is 45th in PFF receiving grade and 55th in yards per route run against man coverage (minimum 15 man coverage targets). Thielen is the WR39 in fantasy with a 19.4% target share and 15 red zone targets (seventh-best). In Week 3, Thielen secured six of his eight targets for 61 yards and a score (WR16). We’ll see if he can buck his season-long stats against man coverage if the Lions use as much as they did previously. Thielen is a WR3/4.

Amon-Ra St. Brown: Bow down to the Sun God, or he will burn you. St. Brown is a monster. He’s the WR8 in fantasy with a 28.7% target share (eighth-best), 33.8% target per route run rate (second-highest), and 13 red zone targets (11th). St. Brown is seventh in YAC and fourth in yards per route run. With Chark back on the field in a full-time role, St. Brown has seen his snaps increase in the slot since Week 12 (52.8%, 65.9%). He’ll destroy Chandon Sullivan (77.6% catch rate, 109.6 passer rating) in the slot this week. The Vikings have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Christian Kirk: Kirk is the WR14 in fantasy with a 24.5% target share and 28.1% air yard share. He’s been Lawrence’s snuggy in the red zone with the fifth-most targets inside the 20 among wide receivers. Kirk is 21st in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Kirk is facing a secondary that’s allowed the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the 12th-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Kirk will run about 77% of his routes against Roger McCreary (73.1% catch rate, 113.9 passer rating). Kirk is a WR2.

Zay Jones: Zay Jones has finished as a WR3 or better in five games. He’s the WR35 in fantasy points per game with a 22.6% target share and 22.4% air-yard share. Zay Jones is the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. He has only one touchdown this season despite ten red zone targets, and four red zone looks in the last three games. Zay Jones will run about 65% of his routes against McCreary, Tre Avery (54.2% catch rate, 106.3 passer rating), and Kristian Fulton (55.6% catch rate, 104.0 passer rating).

A.J. Brown: Brown remains a top-end WR1 as the WR9 in fantasy. Brown is ninth in target share and target per route run rate while also seventh in air yard share. Brown is 17th in deep targets and 11th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Brown is eighth in PFF receiving grade and ninth in yards per route run. The Giants have deployed their corners in man coverage on a little over half of their coverage snaps this season. Against man coverage, Brown is fifth in PFF receiving grade (40% of his target volume) and sixth in yards per route run (minimum ten man coverage targets). Brown will run about 75% of his routes against Nick McCloud (65% catch rate, 102.9 passer rating) and Fabian Moreau (54.7% catch rate, 95.2 passer rating).

DeVonta Smith: Smith has been the Eagles’ zone beater, but that doesn’t mean he’s terrible against man coverage. Smith is 23rd in PFF receiving grade and 42nd in yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets). Smith is the WR27 in fantasy with a 25.7% target share (19th) and 29.0% air yard share. His red zone usage has been spotty at best, with only four red zone targets over his last six games. Smith is a WR3 that will run about 78% of his routes against McCloud and Moreau.

Darius Slayton: Over his last six games, Slayton has finished as a WR3 or better five times (WR19, WR36, WR15, WR21, WR22). In that stretch, Slayton is 22nd in PFF receiving grade and 13th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Since Week 7, Slayton has a 22.9% target share and 43.2% air yard share. He’s been playing fantastic football. The problem is his touchdown equity weekly. He’s scored two touchdowns this season and has only three red zone targets (none since Week 6). Slayton is a WR3 that will run about 65% of his routes against Darius Slay (50.9% catch rate, 53.2 passer rating) and James Bradberry (44.4% catch rate, 43.2 passer rating).

George Pickens: Pickens is the WR54 in fantasy with a 15.5% target share and 25.7% air yard share. If drawing targets is a skill, Pickens needs to work on this desperately with his 16.1% target per route run rate (84th). Pickens is 78th in PFF receiving grade and 82nd in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Pickens has managed five games as a WR3 or higher (WR18, WR21, WR12, WR26, WR11). He’s a boom-or-bust player with six weeks outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers. Pickens is a WR3/4 that will run about 86% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (66% catch rate, 59.2 passer rating) and Marcus Peters (70.4% catch rate, 120.8 passer rating).

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster was thrown back into a full-time role last week with a 17.4% target share and 80.6% route run rate. Smith-Schuster is the WR33 in fantasy with a 17.5% target share and 18.2% air yard share. He’s 16th in red zone targets and 28th in yards per route run. Since Week 12, Smith-Schuster has run from the slot on 52.1% of his routes. Smith-Schuster is a WR2 that will match up with Essang Bassey (57.1% catch rate, 74.4 passer rating). Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling is a dart throw WR5/6. He has a 13.3% target share and 24.2% air yard share while ranking 22nd in deep targets. This is a bad matchup for a field stretcher like Valdes-Scantling. Denver has held the opposition to the 13th-lowest deep ball completion rate and eight-lowest deep passing yards.

Week 14 RB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Leonard Fournette: Fournette returned to the lineup and rolled right back into his lead role. He played 60% of the snaps with 16 touches and 81 total yards. Fournette ran more routes than White and handled the bulk of the work inside the 20-yard line. Fournette has been tragically incapable of breaking tackles this season. Among 53 running backs with at least 50 rushing attempts, he is 52nd in yards after contact per attempt, 43rd in missed tackles forced, and 49th in breakaway rate. He is the RB12 in fantasy thanks to his six touchdowns (14th), 12.2% target share (12th), 347 receiving yards (fifth-most), and 49 receptions (fifth-most). The 49ers have been a coffin nail for running backs. Since Week 10, they are third in rushing success rate, first in rushing yards per game, and second in explosive run rate allowed. Fournette is a low-end RB2.

Rachaad White: White played 41% of the snaps last week with 15 touches and 69 total yards. He handled the 1B role alongside Fournette. Fournette still held the upper hand in high-value areas. White is 51st in yards after contact per attempt, 26th in breakaway rate, and 50th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). In a tougher matchup and with Fournette active, it’s difficult to project much upside for White this week. White is an RB3.

Christian McCaffrey: With Elijah Mitchell out, McCaffrey returned to his bell-cow role. He played 82% of the snaps last week with 25 touches and 146 total yards as the RB1 for the week. McCaffrey is 27th in yards after contact per attempt, 20th in breakaway rate, and 30th in PFF’s elusive rating. With issues under center and Mitchell out, McCaffrey will continue as the bellcow for as long as his body can hold up to the workload. Whatever shortcomings McCaffrey has in the rushing department, he can more than makeup for it in the passing game if Purdy will feed him a 25% target share as he did in Week 13. The Buccaneers’ run defense has returned to its former glory since Week 10. They are fourth in rushing success rate, 11th in EPA per rush, and 12th in explosive run rate allowed. McCaffrey is a high-end, matchup-proof RB1.

Jeff Wilson: There isn’t much to take away from last week’s game against the 49ers. Yes, Wilson only ran the ball once, but the Dolphins had only eight rushing attempts. They went with a pass-heavy approach to avoid one of the league’s best run defenses. For clarity, let’s revisit Weeks 9-10 when both backs were active. Wilson led the duo in rushing attempts, targets, routes, and red zone chances. He was the clear first back up in the rotation. Wilson averaged 15.5 touches and 107.5 total yards. Wilson is 30th in evaded tackles, fifth in breakaway run rate, and ninth in yards per touch. He should destroy the Bolts’ run defense. Since Week 10, Los Angeles is 31st in rushing success rate, 29th in rushing yards per game, and 20th in explosive run rate allowed. Los Angeles allows the fourth-highest fantasy points per game to running backs and the highest yards per carry in the NFL. Wilson is an RB2.

Raheem Mostert: In Weeks 9-10, Mostert averaged 10.5 touches and 56.5 total yards. He was the RB25 and RB10 in fantasy. Mostert is 24th in yards per touch, 19th in breakaway run rate, and 40th in evaded tackles. With 10-15 touch upside, Mostert is an RB2/3.

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB1 in fantasy, ranking first in weighted opportunity, 11th in opportunity share, and second in red zone touches. He is seventh in yards per route run, 19th in evaded tackles, and 18th in breakaway run rate. Ekeler has averaged 18.6 touches and 96.1 total yards. He is second in target share (21.5%), first in receptions, and first in receiving yards among running backs. Since Week 10, Miami is 12th in rushing success rate, sixth in rushing yards per game, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. While none of that is good news, there is a silver lining. Miami is also 22nd in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the eighth-most receiving yards and sixth-highest yards per reception. Ekeler is a top-three running back.

Rhamondre Stevenson: Since Week 7, Stevenson has played at least 63% of the snaps weekly, averaging 18.9 touches and 97.2 total yards. In those six games, Stevenson has a 24.9% target share while averaging 49.5 receiving yards per game with 2.08 yards per route run. Mondre is unstoppable and matchup-proof. The Patriots are deploying him like their own personal version of Alvin Kamara. Stevenson is the RB8 in fantasy, ranking fifth in weighted opportunities, 13th in opportunity share, and 17th in red zone touches. He is top ten in juke rate, evaded tackles, yards per route run, and yards created per touch. Since Week 10, Arizona has been 22nd in rushing success rate, 30th in EPA per rush, and tenth in explosive run rate allowed. The Cardinals are also 30th in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the ninth-most receptions and receiving yards. Stevenson is an RB1.

James Conner: Conner has returned to his bell-cow workload. Since Week 10, he has played at least 77% of the snaps in each game, with two outings of 96% or more. Since then, in fantasy, Conner has averaged 22.7 touches and 93.3 total yards as the RB3, RB16, and RB4. Conner is 24th in juke rate, 19th in target share, 26th in yards created per touch, and 26th in evaded tackles. New England is a tough test. Since Week 10, they are second in rushing success rate, fourth in rushing yards per game, and first in explosive run rate allowed. Conner is a volume-based low-end RB1/high-end RB2.

Cam Akers: Well, last week was unexpected. After Williams had seemingly taken over the backfield the week before, Akers looked like an overrated early down banger. Then Week 13 happened. Akers played 72% of the snaps, easily his highest snap count of the season, with 18 touches and 60 total yards (two rushing touchdowns). He ran more routes than Williams and gobbled up all of the red zone work. Something I highlighted last week in the Primer and have to revisit this week. Since Week 10, Akers has shown some life, ranking 16th in yards after contact per attempt, 16th in missed tackles forced, and tenth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Since Week 10, the Raiders are 21st in rushing success rate, 17th in EPA per rush, and 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. A large portion of that has come through the air, as they are 29th in receiving yards per game and yards per reception allowed to backs. Akers hasn’t earned a decent share of the passing game all year, so I’d be surprised if that flips this week. Akers is a high-end RB3.

Kyren Williams: Williams is stash worthy, but after last week’s changing of the guard, he’s unplayable. Williams played 28% of the snaps with only four opportunities and nine total yards.

Week 14 TE Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Foster Moreau: Since taking over the starting role in Week 7, Moreau has a 15.1% target share (five targets per game), 38.5% end zone target share, 1.18 yards per route run, and an 18% target per route run rate. Moreau has two top 12 tight-end weeks. He’s been heavily utilized in the red zone over the last four games with five red zone targets. Moreau is a touchdown-or-bust TE2 with top-12 upside if he gets in the endzone. The Rams are giving up the seventh-highest yards per reception and ninth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

Tyler Higbee: With Stafford out of the lineup, Higbee has seen his volume drop to 2.5 targets per game. He goose-egged in Week 12 and scratched out 14 receiving yards in Week 13. With the team moving to a run-heavy approach and their pace going in the tank, Higbee is a TE2 that will disappoint if he doesn’t score. Higbee is a low-end streaming option. Las Vegas is 25th in DVOA, surrendering the seventh-highest catch rate and tenth-most receiving yards per game.

Tyler Conklin: Conklin is a TE2 whose expectations need to be held in check this week. Buffalo is among the teams that are a no-fly zone for tight ends. Conklin is the TE15 with a 15.6% target share and four deep targets (14th). Conklin hasn’t finished as a TE1 since his boxscore explosion against New England in Week 8. Buffalo is second in DVOA against tight ends, holding them to the tenth-lowest catch rate, third-lowest yards per reception, and zero touchdowns.

Dawson Knox: Add New York to the flight restriction list. Knox is in for a long day at the office. Knox is TE23 in fantasy points per game with an 11.1% target share and only five red zone looks (31st). Knox has three TE1 weeks on his resume, but don’t expect him to add a fourth this week. The Jets are fifth in DVOA, limiting tight ends to the 12th-lowest yards per reception and zero touchdowns. The Bills and Jets are the only defenses in the NFL yet to give up a touchdown to a tight end. Knox is a TE2.

Dalton Schultz: Since Week 7, Schultz has had a 19.1% target share, 50% end zone target share, and 28% target per route run rate. With Prescott back, Schultz draws targets at the sixth-highest rate among tight ends (minimum ten targets). Over his last six games, Schultz is 13th in PFF receiving grade and fourth in yards per route run (minimum ten targets). Houston is 26th in DVOA against tight ends with the ninth-highest yards per reception and ninth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) allowed. Schultz is a top shelf TE1.

T.J. Hockenson: Since arriving in Minnesota, Hockenson has a 21% target share, 23.3% end zone target share, 78.9% route run rate, and a 23% target per route run rate. Since Week 9, he’s 19th in PFF receiving grade and 21st in yards per route run (minimum eight targets). Despite his inefficiencies, Hockenson has finished as a TE1 (TE5, TE7, TE11, TE5) in four of his six games as a Viking just because of the volume. Hockenson is a TE1 against his former team that has conceded the eighth-highest yards per reception and ninth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Week 14 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Week 14 K Start/Sit Grades

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.