Before we get to the Week 14 tiers, let’s talk about luck for a moment.

This is the final week of the regular season in most fantasy leagues — a time of year when fantasy managers are inclined to curse their luck if they haven’t secured playoff berths. The ones cursing the loudest are the ones whose records aren’t commensurate with their season-long point totals.

This is also the time of year when you’ll hear people touting the merits of the all-play format, in which you play against every team every week so that your point total is more closely correlated with your record. Some people believe all-play is the perfect way to minimize luck and therefore the purest and best form of fantasy football.

I hate all-play.

Let’s face it: There’s no way to completely airbrush luck out of fantasy football. All-play addresses one type of bad luck — the misfortunate of not having a lofty point total reflected in your record. It doesn’t eliminate bad luck with injuries. It doesn’t eliminate other types of bad luck in fantasy football — and there are some wild stories about things going wrong for fantasy managers in spectacularly bizarre ways.

Here’s one. In a home league where we use kickers, I was starting the Cardinals’ Matt Prater in Week 4. Arizona was playing Carolina, and with 7:37 left in the fourth quarter, the Cardinals scored a touchdown to go up 26-10. The extra point would give Arizona a 17-point lead, making it a three-score game midway through the fourth quarter. But Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury elected to try for a two-point conversion, which failed. Why? I have no idea. But I lost by half a point that week, and a Prater extra point would have given me the win.

All-play would not have un-Kingsbury-ed me.

Nor would all-play help the fantasy manager who started 5-1, but then lost rookie phenom Breece Hall to a season-ending injury, and then lost Cooper Kupp to a season-ending injury soon after. (OK … that might have been me, too.)

Head-to-head play is fun. Rivalries within fantasy leagues are fun. Playing against every other team every week isn’t particularly fun. Don’t give up the fun stuff to chase the elusive ideal of fairness.

Bad luck is inevitable. Play fantasy football long enough, and you’ll have a bagful of bad-beat stories. We all have scar tissue. It builds toughness. It builds character. Toughen up, Buttercup.

My best friend is one of three brothers. When he was a kid, my friend and his brothers used to argue over who had gotten the bigger bowl of ice cream for dessert. The quarreling so annoyed their parents that they bought a scale to measure the ice cream portions so that none of the boys could claim they were shorted a quarter ounce of mint chocolate chip.

All-play is the scale in my friend’s childhood kitchen. Throw that silly thing in the trash.

As always, feel free to use the tiered rankings below as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. Rankings are based on half-point PPR scoring.

Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Week 14 Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice

QUARTERBACKS

Check out Fitz’s quarterback rankings here

Tier 1

Jalen Hurts (@ NYG)

Patrick Mahomes (@ DEN)

Josh Allen (vs. NYJ)

Joe Burrow (vs. CLE)

Tier 2

Justin Herbert (vs. MIA)

Tua Tagovailoa (@ LAC)

Geno Smith (vs. CAR)

Dak Prescott (vs. HOU)

Kyler Murray (vs. NE)

Kirk Cousins (@ DET)

Tier 3

Derek Carr (@ LAR)

Jared Goff (vs. MIN)

Trevor Lawrence (@ TEN)

Daniel Jones (vs. PHI)

Deshaun Watson (@ CIN)

Tom Brady (@ SF)

Mac Jones (@ ARI)

Tier 4

Mike White (@ BUF)

Ryan Tannehill (vs. JAC)

Kenny Pickett (vs. BAL)

Tyler Huntley (@ PIT)

Russell Wilson (vs. KC)

Tier 5

Brock Purdy (vs. TB)

Sam Darnold (@ SEA)

John Wolford (vs. LV)

Davis Mills (@ DAL)

Derek Carr has thrown multiple TD passes in five straight games, and he’s averaged 271.8 passing yards over that stretch. Some fantasy managers might worry that the Raiders will get a big lead against the Rams on Thursday night and take their foot off the gas. I tend to take a more favorable view of the matchup. As bad as the Rams’ offense is these days, they probably won’t have many sustained drives, which means Carr should get to run plenty of plays on Thursday night.

After throwing exactly 26 passes in three consecutive games from Week 9 to Week 11, Jared Goff threw 37 passes against the Bills in Week 12 and 41 passes against the Jaguars in Week 13. Passing volume is subject to game script, of course, but it does feel as if Lions head coach Dan Campbell and OC Ben Johnson have loosened the reins on Goff, who’s been the QB10 in fantasy scoring over the last two weeks. Consider Goff a low-end QB1 this week against a Minnesota defense that has surrendered a league-high 3,403 passing yards.

It was fair to assume that Deshaun Watson would show signs of rust after not having played in a regular-season game since Jan. 3, 2021, but I didn’t expect him to be that rusty. Watson completed 12-of-22 passes against the Texans for 131 yards, with no touchdowns and one interception. He also ran seven times for 21 yards. Watson’s 54.6% completion percentage looks even worse when you consider that his average depth of target on those 22 throws was just 6.3 yards. I have Watson ranked QB15 this week in a tougher matchup against the Bengals, and that ranking feels overly generous.

I feel obligated to be cautious with Mike White‘s Week 14 ranking since he’ll be facing a Bills defense that’s giving up 14.6 fantasy points per game to QBs, the seventh-lowest total in the league. But in the four games that White has started and finished for the Jets dating back to last season, he’s averaged 43.5 pass attempts and 335 passing yards. Maybe inflated passing volume can help White can squeeze out a QB1 performance even in a tough matchup.

RUNNING BACKS

Check out Fitz’s running back rankings here

Tier 1

Josh Jacobs (@ LAR)

Austin Ekeler (vs. MIA)

Tier 2

Derrick Henry (vs. JAC)

Christian McCaffrey (vs. TB)

Rhamondre Stevenson (@ ARI)

Nick Chubb (@ CIN)

Saquon Barkley (vs. PHI)

Dalvin Cook (@ DET)

Joe Mixon (vs. CLE)

Tony Pollard (vs. HOU)

Tier 3

Travis Etienne (@ TEN)

Ezekiel Elliott (vs. HOU)

Miles Sanders (@ NYG)

James Conner (vs. NE)

Isiah Pacheco (@ DEN)

D’Andre Swift (vs. MIN)

Dameon Pierce (@ DAL)

Najee Harris (vs. BAL)

Jamaal Williams (vs. MIN)

Tier 4

D’Onta Foreman (@ SEA)

Raheem Mostert (@ LAC)

Jeff Wilson (@ LAC)

Latavius Murray (vs. KC)

Rachaad White (@ SF)

Devin Singletary (vs. NYJ)

Zonovan Knight (@ BUF)

Leonard Fournette (@ SF)

Cam Akers (vs. LV)

James Cook (vs. NYJ)

Travis Homer (vs. CAR)

Michael Carter (@ BUF)

Tier 5

Kareem Hunt (@ CIN)

Gus Edwards (@ PIT)

Samaje Perine (vs. CLE)

Kenyan Drake (@ PIT)

DeeJay Dallas (vs. CAR)

Damien Harris (@ ARI)

Jerick McKinnon (@ DEN)

Tier 6

Chuba Hubbard (@ SEA)

Kyren Williams (vs. LV)

Dontrell Hilliard (vs. JAC)

Ty Johnson (@ BUF)

Kenneth Gainwell (@ NYG)

Jordan Mason (vs. TB)

Joshua Kelley (vs. MIA)

Tony Jones (vs. CAR)

Alexander Mattison (@ DET)

Ameer Abdullah (@ LAR)

James Conner‘s snap shares in his last four games: 71%, 96%, 77%, 97%. He’s had 16 targets and 13 receptions since Week 9 and has been the RB11 in fantasy points per game (half-PPR scoring) over that span. Conner has had more than 20 carries in two of his last three games. This is workhorse usage, and Conner should be ready for a heavy dose of Week 14 touches against the Patriots after being on bye last week and getting some extra rest.

Can we trust D’Andre Swift? The answer, to borrow from an Oasis album title, is “definitely maybe.” Swift turned in a sporty effort in Week 13, with 14-62-1 rushing and 4-49-0 receiving. He played 51% of Detroit’s offensive snaps, marking the first time he’d gotten at least a 50% snap share since Week 8. It was the first time Swift had gotten double-digit carries since Week 1. (He averaged just 5.0 carries per game from Week 2 to Week 12.) Is it that Swift is healthier now after dealing with shoulder and ankle injuries earlier in the year? Or is the division of labor between Williams and Swift just going to depend on the vagaries of weekly game scripts? I’m cautiously optimistic Swift will get another substantial workload Sunday against the Vikings, who have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points and sixth-most receiving yards to RBs.

Entering Week 13, Jeff Wilson had a 61% snap share in his two previous games. But against the 49ers on Sunday, Wilson’s snap share dropped to 37%, and he had just one carry and no receptions on two targets. Raheem Mostert, meanwhile, had a 61% snap share against the 49ers. So … does the shift in usage stick, or was it just a one-game anomaly? I’m taking the coward’s way out and ranking Wilson and Mostert side by side this week. On the bright side, Wilson and Mostert have a sexy Week 14 matchup against the Chargers, so it’s possible neither will need 20 touches to make his weekly fantasy quota. The Chargers are giving up 134.9 rushing yards per game to running backs, and they’ve given up 15 touchdowns to RBs in 12 games.

Latavius Murray is a low-end RB2 for me this week even though he’s clearly the lead back in Denver. The Broncos’ implied Vegas point total against the Chiefs is 17 points. That seems generous considering that the Broncos are averaging 13.8 points per game. Murray has three touchdowns in seven games with the Broncos, and that feels like an overperformance based on how few touchdowns the Denver offense is generating. I’m not crazy about Murray’s odds of getting into the end zone against Kansas City. Murray has had fewer than 50 rushing yards in 5-of-7 games with the Broncos. and he hasn’t had more than 23 receiving yards in a game this season. Hopefully you have better options.

The Buccaneers’ backfield is messy these days. It looked as if rookie Rachaad White was in the process of seizing the backfield from incumbent Leonard Fournette. But Fournette out-snapped White 48-33 in the Bucs’ Monday-night win over the Saints, and although White had the game-winning TD catch with three seconds left on the clock, Fournette was on the field for every other play during Tampa’s game-winning drive. Fournette out-carried White 10-9 in that game, and they both had six catches. The Bucs have a Week 14 date with the 49ers, whose run defense is statistically the best in the league. But with the Buccaneers’ best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, out with a high-ankle sprain, and with QB Tom Brady not eager to take punishment at age 45, Brady is dumping the ball off to his RBs with great frequency. That’s why I think White and Fournette are both playable this week. I have both ranked in low-end RB2/high-end RB3 territory.

James Cook played a season-high 32 snaps against the Patriots in Week 13. That was just one fewer snap than Devin Singletary played, and White out-touched Singletary 20-13, finishing with 14-64-0 rushing and 6-41-0 receiving. I don’t think this was a one-off. I think that Cook keeps sharing work with Singletary the rest of the way, and that Cook is a playable midrange RB3 this week against a Jets defense that has given up the 11th-most receiving yards to RBs.

Pay attention to the injury reports out of Seattle if you have any sort of stake in Seahawks RBs. Kenneth Walker has an ankle injury and wasn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Also held out of practice on Wednesday was DeeJay Dallas, who sustained an ankle injury of his own. Travis Homer missed Week 13 with a knee injury, but he practiced on Wednesday, and it’s possible he’s Seattle’s lead RB by default this Sunday in a pretty decent matchup against the Panthers.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Check out Fitz’s wide receiver rankings here

Tier 1

Justin Jefferson (@ DET)

Davante Adams (@ LAR)

Tyreek Hill (@ LAC)

Tier 2

Stefon Diggs (vs. NYJ)

Ja’Marr Chase (vs. CLE)

Amon-Ra St. Brown (vs. MIN)

CeeDee Lamb (vs. HOU)

A.J. Brown (@ NYG)

Tier 3

DeAndre Hopkins (vs. NE)

Tee Higgins (vs. CLE)

Jaylen Waddle (@ LAC)

Christian Kirk (@ TEN)

D.K. Metcalf (vs. CAR)

Garrett Wilson (@ BUF)

Tyler Lockett (vs. CAR)

Keenan Allen (vs. MIA)

Amari Cooper (@ CIN)

Tier 4

Chris Godwin (@ SF)

DeVonta Smith (@ NYG)

Mike Evans (@ SF)

Jerry Jeudy (vs. KC)

JuJu Smith-Schuster (@ DEN)

D.J. Moore (@ SEA)

Joshua Palmer (vs. MIA)

Marquise Brown (vs. NE)

Deebo Samuel (vs. TB)

Gabe Davis (vs. NYJ)

Tier 5

Michael Gallup (vs. HOU)

Jakobi Meyers (@ ARI)

Brandon Aiyuk (vs. TB)

Zay Jones (@ TEN)

Adam Thielen (@ DET)

George Pickens (vs. BAL)

Treylon Burks (vs. JAC)

Diontae Johnson (vs. BAL)

Mack Hollins (@ LAR)

Darius Slayton (vs. PHI)

Tyler Boyd (vs. CLE)

Tier 6

Nico Collins (@ DAL)

Donovan Peoples-Jones (@ CIN)

D.J. Chark (vs. MIN)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (@ DEN)

Corey Davis (@ BUF)

Van Jefferson (vs. LV)

Isaiah McKenzie (vs. NYJ)

DeAndre Carter (vs. MIA)

Robert Woods (vs. JAC)

Tier 7

Terrace Marshall (@ SEA)

DeVante Parker (@ ARI)

Elijah Moore (@ BUF)

Kadarius Toney (@ DEN)

Tutu Atwell (vs. LV)

Kendall Hinton (vs. KC)

Julio Jones (@ SF)

Demarcus Robinson (@ PIT)

Devin Duvernay (@ PIT)

Nelson Agholor (@ ARI)

K.J. Osborn (@ DET)

Chris Moore (@ DAL)

I’m above consensus on Christian Kirk, who’s seen at least seven targets in each of his last six games. He has 37 receptions over that stretch, averaging 6.2 catches and 77.8 receiving yards per game. Kirk has already established a new career high with seven TD catches, and he’s the WR12 in half-point PPR scoring. Trevor Lawrence seems to have avoided serious injury after a scary-looking moment last week when he was folded in a grotesque-looking way. He has a sprained big toe and reportedly is on track to play this week. Kirk has an appealing matchup against the Titans, who are giving up the most fantasy points per game to WRs. Tennessee has been using safety Amani Hooker to cover slot receivers, and Hooker has actually done a pretty good job of it. But I like Kirk’s chances in a matchup against any safety in the league. Start him with confidence.

Amari Cooper investors have reason to be at least slightly nervous. I think Cooper investors are probably compelled to start him this week, but his first game with Deshaun Watson was a little discouraging. Cooper saw nine targets last week but finished with 4-40-0 against the Texans. This week, Cooper faces a Bengals defense that he torched for 5-131-1 on Halloween night. The Bengals has been tough on wide receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs this year, but I’m less concerned about the matchup than I am about Cooper’s still-developing chemistry with Watson.

My ranking of Jerry Jeudy as a low-end WR2 assumes that Courtland Sutton is going to be out with a hamstring injury. Jeudy came back from a high-ankle sprain last week and had 4-65-0 on only 20 snaps. Jeudy has been pretty good this year when healthy. He’s averaging 8.7 yards per target and 1.94 yards per route run – rock-solid efficiency numbers, especially when you consider how bad the Denver passing game has been overall. If Sutton is out, there’s a good chance Jeudy sees eight or more targets in a matchup against a Chiefs defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to WRs.

I’m fading Deebo Samuel, who hasn’t produced more than 58 receiving yards in a game since Oct. 16, and now he’s going to be catching passes from backup QB Brock Purdy. Deebo has scored four touchdowns this season, and just one in his last six games. His one score over that span was a 39-yard TD run against the Cardinals. Even with that long touchdown run, Deebo has only 102 rushing yards since Week 3, which works out to 11.3 rushing yards per game. Also, Deebo has a tough matchup against the Buccaneers this week. You can bet that Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is going to be dialing up some special stuff for Purdy in this one.

Adam Thielen has derived much of his fantasy value from touchdowns in recent years. He scored 14 TDs in 2020 and 10 in 2021. But Thielen has scored only three touchdowns this year, and he’s on pace for an 870-yard season. He hasn’t produced more than 72 receiving yards in a game all year. Thielen’s efficiency numbers continue to trend downward. He’s averaging a career-low 10.4 yards per catch and a career-low 7.0 yards per target. Thielen gets a favorable Week 14 matchup with the Lions, against whom he had 6-61-1 in Week 3. But even with the appealing matchup — and even with six teams on bye — I wouldn’t be excited about putting Thielen into my lineup this week if I were in a must-win game.

In the four games that Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow has missed with an oblique injury, Mack Hollins has averaged 7.3 targets. Hollins hasn’t really cashed in on all those targets, averaging 4.3 catches for 42 yards and scoring one touchdown over that stretch. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels says he doesn’t know if Renfrow will be back this week — which makes it sound like Renfrow won’t be back. When the Raiders face the Rams on Thursday night, Hollins is going to be running a good percentage of his routes against sixth-round rookie Derion Kendrick. PFF has grades for 119 cornerbacks, and Kendrick is graded 111th. Kendrick is giving up 1.85 yards and 0.35 fantasy points per route run into his coverage. I think Hollins is a sneaky-good start in a week with six teams on bye.

TIGHT ENDS

Check out Fitz’s tight end rankings here

Tier 1

Travis Kelce (@ DEN)

Tier 2

Mark Andrews (@ PIT)

T.J. Hockenson (@ DET)

Dalton Schultz (vs. HOU)

Pat Freiermuth (vs. BAL)

Tier 3

George Kittle (vs. TB)

Gerald Everett (vs. MIA)

Greg Dulcich (vs. KC)

Tier 4

Hunter Henry (@ ARI)

Foster Moreau (@ LAR)

Evan Engram (@ TEN)

David Njoku (@ CIN)

Tyler Higbee (vs. LV)

Dawson Knox (vs. NYJ)

Noah Fant (vs. CAR)

Tyler Conklin (@ BUF)

Daniel Bellinger (vs. PHI)

Chigoziem Okonkwo (vs. JAC)

Tier 5

Austin Hooper (vs. JAC)

Cade Otton (@ SF)

Jonnu Smith (@ ARI)

Mike Gesicki (@ LAC)

Jordan Akins (@ DAL)

Mitchell Wilcox (vs. CLE)

Will Dissly (vs. CAR)

After a dry three-game stretch in which he had just 7-52-0 on 12 targets, Greg Dulcich had a 6-85-0 performance against the Ravens in Week 13, claiming a 36.3% target share. His matchup against the Chiefs this week isn’t particularly appealing on the surface — Kansas City is middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to TEs — but the Chiefs do sometimes give up big plays to tight ends. Since Week 7, they have allowed the third-highest yards per catch to TEs.

Why the low-end TE1 status for Hunter Henry, who’s the TE21 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring? It’s all about matchup. Arizona has been getting clobbered by tight ends all season. The Cardinals have allowed the most receptions (83), most receiving yards (880), most TD catches (9) and most fantasy points per game (15.7) to tight ends. Even Jonnu Smith, the Patriots’ other tight end, might be worth a spin this week if you’re in dire straits at the position.

Chigoziem Okonkwo‘s TE18 ranking will climb if Titans WR Treylon Burks is ruled out with a concussion. Okonkwo, a fourth-round rookie from Maryland, has been a model of efficiency this season, averaging 18.3 yards per catch and 11.0 yards per target. As noted by Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) of Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life, Okonkwo ranks first among TEs in yards per route run (2.75) and third in targets per route run (25%). Okonkwo has seen only 25 targets this season, but he could be in for spiked usage in a solid matchup against the Jaguars If Burks isn’t able to go.

In his first game back from an eye injury that had kept him out of action since Week 8, Giants rookie Daniel Bellinger caught 5-of-5 targets for 24 yards. Given the Giants’ talent shortage at wide receiver, Bellinger could play a key role in the passing game down the stretch. I have him ranked as a midrange TE2 this week against the Eagles.

The Bengals’ Mitchell Wilcox could be a sneaky TE play for Week 14. Hayden Hurst is likely to be out with a calf injury this week, leaving Wilcox as Cincinnati’s primary tight end this week against Cleveland. Wilcox has been targeted only seven times this season, but he’s caught all seven for 60 yards. You could do worse than a tight end who’s going to play a lot of snaps this weekend and will be catching passes from Joe Burrow.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

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