Matthew Freedman | Wed, Dec 7th 2022, 11:04am EST

Fantasy Football Week 14 Player Projections (2022)

In this piece are my personal NFL Week 14 projections for every fantasy- and prop-relevant player (unless I missed one here or there).

This week, I will keep the following schedule for my projections.

Wednesday: Do first pass of player projections in the early morning.
Thursday: Do initial update in the afternoon before Thursday Night Football.
Saturday & Sunday: Do final update late on Saturday night or early on Sunday morning.

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After my final update, if you want to see an even fresher set of player projections check out our official Week 14 FantasyPros projections, which we use on BettingPros to power our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet and Prop Bet Analyzer, both of which are great resources.

While you can use these projections to make fantasy decisions, I recommend you also consult the following.

NFL Week 14 Player Projections

My projections are organized by projected fantasy points. I use the default half-PPR FantasyPros scoring settings. Note that my projected fantasy points do include two-point conversions and fumbles lost (and passing production for Taysom Hill), but I haven’t included those projections in the following tables to save space.

After my positional rankings, I’ve added a few player notes.

Note that my projections differ from my rankings, which are more intuitive and done by hand. With my rankings, I try to take upside and downside into account. I think about range of outcomes and potential expected value. I’m currently No. 11 in the FantasyPros Accuracy Contest after finishing No. 14 last year. My projections are largely automated and created with formulas in a spreadsheet. With my projections, I’m trying to forecast only the median.

NFL Week 14 QB Projections

NFL Week 14 QB Notes

Jalen Hurts (PHI) at NYG: Last week, Hurts lit up our Game Day app with a position-high 34.4 fantasy points on 380-3-0 passing with a 74.3% completion rate and 11.3 AY/A and 5-12-1 rushing. Hurts has steadily progressed as a passer throughout his career and now ranks No. 2 in AY/A (9.0) and No. 6 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.140, per RBs Don't Matter). Hurts has an incredibly high Konami Code floor, given that he's No. 1 at the position in carries inside the five-yard line (18, per our Red Zone Stats Report) and total carries (132, per our Fantasy Football Stats Report). The Giants are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA (14.0%, per Football Outsiders).

Jared Goff (DET) vs. MIN: This year Goff has exhibited notable splits at home (1,887-17-3 passing, 8.3 AY/A) and on the road (1,135-2-4 passing, 6.5 AY/A), and this week he's playing his third consecutive game at Ford Field. The Vikings are No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.9 FPPG) and could be without CBs Cameron Dantzler (ankle, IR), Andrew Booth (knee, IR) and Akayleb Evans (concussion). Goff is one of our top Week 14 DFS value plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel. Lions HC Dan Campbell is 18-9 ATS as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in division (per Action Network).

Check out my Week 14 early betting preview on Lions vs. Vikings.

NFL Week 14 RB Projections

NFL Week 14 RB Notes

Josh Jacobs (LV) at LAR: After mediocre performances in Weeks 1-2 (154 yards, zero touchdowns), Jacobs has been the No. 1 fantasy back since Week 3 with 22.6 FPPG, 213-1177-10 rushing and 40-303-0 receiving on 48 targets in 10 games (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Jacobs (quad/calf) is dealing with injuries, but he has played through them for the past two weeks, so I tentatively project him to start this week. The Raiders are growing favorites (-250 at Caesars ) and could lean heavily on the ground game. The Rams are No. 1 in defensive rush EPA (-0.156) - but they are without DT A'Shawn Robinson (knee, IR) and could be without DT Aaron Donald (ankle), who missed last week. I could not have been more wrong.

Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at ARI: No. 2 RB Damien Harris (thigh) exited Week 12 early and could miss this week after neither practicing nor playing last week. In the seven games this year in which Harris has been out or played no more than 25% of the snaps, Stevenson has 706 yards and four touchdowns on 102 carries and 46 targets. In his 13 career games with 15-plus opportunities, Stevenson has averaged 16.6 FPPG (per FTN). A strong pass catcher for a big-bodied back, Stevenson is No. 1 on the Patriots with 67 targets and 56 receptions. The Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against running backs (26.7%).

D'Onta Foreman (CAR) at SEA: In his six games since former No. 1 RB Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers, Foreman has a workmanlike 114-526-4 rushing and 4-25-0 receiving on eight targets. Prop Bet Cheat Sheet against the Seahawks, who are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to running backs (25.1 FPPG).

NFL Week 14 WR Projections

NFL Week 14 WR Notes

Justin Jefferson (MIN) at DET: Since moving from the slot to the perimeter in Week 3 of his 2020 rookie campaign, Jefferson has averaged 98.2 yards on 9.6 targets per game with an elite mark of 10.2 yards per target. Jefferson is No. 1 in the league with 11 receptions of 30-plus yards and five receptions of 40-plus yards (per our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet). Jefferson is No. 1 among all NFL wide receivers with 4,293 yards receiving in his first three seasons. The Lions are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.151).

CeeDee Lamb (DAL) vs. HOU: Lamb started the season slowly with 104 scoreless yards on nine receptions and one carry in Weeks 1-2, but he has 60-824-6 receiving and 8-40-0 rushing in 10 games since then, and for the year he has a dominant 111 targets. The Texans could be without No. 1 CB Derek Stingley (hamstring), who has missed the past three weeks. The Cowboys have a week-high 31-point implied total in our Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Check out our DFS lineup optimizer, which is just one of our many FantasyPros DFS tools.

Garrett Wilson (NYJ) at BUF: Wilson has dramatic splits this year without benched QB Zach Wilson, averaging just 6.5 FPPG with him but 17.3 on 11.4 targets in five games without him (per RotoViz). Against the Bills in Week 9, Wilson had 8-92-0 rushing on nine targets - and that was with Zach Wilson at quarterback. The Bills are No. 27 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers (18.1%).

D.J. Moore (CAR) at SEA: With QB Sam Darnold making his first start, Moore had 4-103-1 receiving on six targets in Week 12, and Darnold should have a better grasp of the offense out of the Week 13 bye. In his 12 games with Darnold last year, Moore averaged a near-elite 9.8 targets, which he leveraged into 70.7 yards per game. The Seahawks are No. 26 in dropback EPA (0.107).

NFL Week 14 TE Projections

NFL Week 14 TE Notes

T.J. Hockenson (MIN) at DET: Since joining the Vikings in Week 9, Hockenson has been No. 2 on the team in targets (40) and receptions (30), and he barely trails WR Adam Thielen (229) at No. 3 in yards receiving (225). The Lions are No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to tight ends (11.7 FPPG). "How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! What is a man, if his chief good and market of his time be but to sleep and feed? A beast, no more. ... Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!"

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN) vs. JAX: Blessed with an elite combination of size (6'3? and 238 pounds) and speed (4.52-second 40-yard dash), Okonkwo as a rookie has flashed electric playmaking ability (11.0 yards per target), and among all qualified tight ends he's No. 1 in the league with 2.75 yards per route (per PFF). The Jaguars are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA against tight ends (34.1%).

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant - which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections - to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much - we've got you covered this fantasy football season.

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