Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Check out the rest of our weekly fantasy football advice

Teams projected for high Week 14 snap counts

Cincinnati Bengals

Fresh off a great win against the Chiefs, Cincinnati has an extremely favorable matchup against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns’ offense struggled last week and their defense shined, a departure from what we’ve seen throughout the season from them. I think their defensive performance was mostly a product of their opponent, however. Cleveland’s defense still ranks 27th in defensive DVOA and 28th in EPA/play allowed. On the other hand, Cincinnati’s offense ranks sixth in CER and ninth in snaps/60 minutes, despite an average pace. I expect this game to be quite lopsided in Cincinnati’s favor.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are always a threat to lead the week in snap count, and this week is no exception. They seem to have found their footing after a brief two-week tumble. Their offense is now back in the top three in CER, behind only the Chiefs and Bills. They also continue to be among the leaders in seconds/snap, ranking second. Their opponent, the New York Giants, is an average to below-average team, despite its record. Neither their offense nor defense pops off the chart in any statistical category. The Eagles should roll in this matchup and run plenty of plays.

Minnesota Vikings

It’s been a while since I’ve highlighted the team facing the Lions in this section, but it’s back this week. Minnesota has struggled to play with a high-level efficiency (42.6 CER), but they run a fast-paced offense. It’s highly plausible they see a large bump in efficiency this week as they take on a poor Detriot defense that ranks 31st in EPA/play allowed and 32nd in yards/play allowed. Detroit’s offense also runs a fast pace with good efficiency, so they shouldn’t eat up the clock on long drawn-out drives. I think you can make similar arguments for Detroit, and while I think they might also have a high snap count, I think Minnesota’s will still be higher.

Teams projected for low Week 14 snap counts

Carolina Panthers

Maybe what Carolina needed to get their snap count up was the bye, but probably not. They better be prepared because they travel to Seattle to take on a hot Seahawks team. The Seahawks run the offense that the Packers ran last year — one that is quite efficient, but slow. Seattle ranks fifth in CER but 25th in seconds/snap. This tends to leave opponents with fewer plays run. Assuming Carolina isn’t suddenly an entirely different team post-bye, they won’t see much volume as a team.

Tennessee Titans

There’s nothing about their matchup against the Jaguars that spells doom, this is just a poor offense. Tennessee ranks dead last in seconds/snap and 22nd in CER. The Titans have historically found success against the Jaguars, with some impressive performances from Derrick Henry over the years. However, the Jaguars have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so we could the Titans’ funneled toward the pass, an area where they struggle. I’ll take a few fliers on Henry in DFS, but I’m not excited about any Titans in this matchup, due to both the projected game script and an offense that systemically runs few plays.

Houston Texas

No surprises here. Houston is a bad offense with a tough matchup. Dallas has arguably the best defense in the NFL, ranking first in defensive DVOA, first in EPA/play allowed and fourth in yards/play allowed. I like Nico Collins in cash on the main slate, but outside of him, I’m staying away from all Houston players.

Noteworthy Trends

While a 24.1 CER isn’t notable, it is notable that the Jets have almost doubled their season-long CER in just the last two weeks. I doubt that Mike White is the “answer” in New York, but he’s proved that he can run an offense, and more importantly, he can get the ball to Garrett Wilson, unlike Zach Wilson. I was vocal about my love for Zach Wilson heading into the 2020 NFL Draft so it’s been hard for me to watch his struggles, but I’m ready to admit he’s not the guy I thought he was. Again, I’m not sure how high of a ceiling a Mike White-led team has, but it’s certainly higher than one led by Wilson.

The Browns’ first game with Deshaun Watson did not go as I imagined it would. In fact, the Browns’ CER dipped below 60 for the first time since post-Week 1, a sample size of one game. I thought there might be some growing pains, but Watson’s performance in Week 13 was dreadful. This shouldn’t have been that surprising. Yes, Watson is an elite talent, but he hadn’t played football in 700 days. Shaking off the offseason rust is all fine and well, but that’s supposed to happen in September. The Browns are 5-7. They simply don’t have the ability to let Watson make mistakes and get up to speed. They’re about two losses away from being on the outside looking in at the playoffs. This will undoubtedly be a fun storyline to watch in the coming weeks.

*Data from the table comes from as follows: Pro Football Reference, Team Rankings, Football Outsiders, RBSDM.com

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.