The premise behind this article is simple. Identifying fantasy football land mines — a guy you’re probably thinking about starting, but here’s why he might be a land mine that explodes your starting lineup — for the upcoming week.
Proceed with caution, and don’t be afraid to pivot to another option — preferably a higher-ranked option from my Week 14 fantasy football rankings.
Brace Yourself and Take Cover.
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RUNNINGS BACKS
- Dameon Pierce got back to encouraging usage: 18 carries for 73 yards, and 3 catches for 22 yards in Week 13.
- But No. 2 RB Dare Ogunbowale totaled 2 carries (both inside the 10-yard line) for 8 yards and 2 catches for 13 yards. And Pierce only ran a route on 49% of dropbacks.
- It’s concerning that the team opted to use Ogunbowale as a receiver and inside the 10-yard line instead of Pierce.
- There’s a lot of baked-in risk with Pierce in Week 14 for fear that Houston gets blown out versus a red-hot Dallas defense playing at home.
- The Cowboys allow the 5th fewest fantasy points to the RB position and rank top-5 in fewest TDs allowed on the ground to RBs.
- With the Texans’ 13.75-point implied team total as 17-point road dogs, Pierce could be a major bust in Week 14 without a locked-and-loaded receiving role to buoy his fantasy value.
- In his last 3 games, Pierce has rushed for 4 first downs (2nd-fewest among RBs with at least 30 carries) and ranks 5th worst in rushing EPA.
- Devin Singletary‘s role was reduced on Thursday night dramatically to a 44% snap share even though his final rushing line looks okay: 13-51-1.
- Rookie James Cook played a season-high 43% snap share and posted career numbers across the board. 14 for 64 as a rusher and a perfect 6-for-6 as a receiver for 41 yards – 40% target rate per route run -while running more routes than Singletary (41% vs. 35%).
- The increased receiving role for Cook was already happening based on his usage from Week 12, but the boosted snaps and carries suggest that Cook is on the cusp of usurping Singletary atop the Bills’ depth chart. First time he dominated the opportunity share (51%) with 20 total touches.
- Cook has been targeted on 46% of his routes the last two weeks.
- With 10 days between this game and the Bills’ next one, I’d bet the Bills increase Cook’s role even more.
- Singletary’s role as a receiver might be gone by Week 14, considering he dropped two passes vs. the Patriots and ranks 7th-worst in yards per route run this season.
- Cook ranks second-best (2.16). Without a receiving role, Singletary will be set up to fail versus a Jets defense that ranks top-10 in rush defense EPA.
- Gang Green limited him to just 8 carries for 24 yards the last time he played them.
- Singletary ranks 11th-worst in rushing EPA this season (-15.2) among RBs with at least 60 carries.
- Since Week 6, the Baltimore Ravens have completely shut down opposing running games.
- They rank fifth in fewest fantasy points allowed, facing the fifth-lowest number of rushes per game (18) and allowing just 55 rushing yards per game – the second-best mark in the NFL over that span.
- No. 3 overall in rush defense DVOA.
- With Najee Harris seeing his role reduced as a receiver and Benny Snell/Jaylen Warren getting more work than before during Week 13’s action, you need to temper expectations with Harris.
- The Gus Edwards bus got way off the rails in Week 13: Edwards was out-carried by Kenyan Drake 6 to 7 and out-snapped (47% vs. 24%).
- The latter saw a lot of usage in the second half. And Drake also added 3 targets and saw the majority of receiving usage.
- The reduced workload for Edwards may have been due to his ineffectiveness, as he averaged just 2 yards per carry. Drake led the way with 53% of the backfield opportunities.
- Given Edwards’s lack of usage and matchup versus the Steelers, who rank top-10 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs since Week 10 when TJ Watt came back…skip the Gus Bus and take an uber instead to fill your RB2/FLEX spot.
- Rachaad White drew the start for Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football but split the backfield opportunities 50/50 with veteran Leonard Fournette.
- Fournette rushed for 49 yards on 10 carries, while White rushed for 28 yards on 9 carries.
- Both RBs caught 6 passes, with White earning one more target (8 vs. 7), which happened to also be the game-winning touchdown.
- But Fournette played a higher percentage of snaps (60% vs. 41%) and ran more routes (32, 58% vs. 21, 38%).
- Both running backs will be extremely difficult to trust, given the timeshare and the brutal matchup on deck versus a 49ers defense that is allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to RBs this season.
- SF also ranks first in DVOA versus RBs in the passing game.
WIDE RECEIVERS
- We faded Adam Thielen last week to great results as the No. 2 WR going up against the vaunted Jets secondary last week. And we are running it back by fading Gabriel Davis in Week 14.
- The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs since Week 6.
- They rank 4th in DVOA versus No. 2 WRs allowing the 5th-fewest receiving yards (39 yards per game) to opposing No. 2 WRs.
- Davis has just a 19.5% target share in his last 3 games played that has seen Isaiah McKenzie also play a full-time role.
- And the last time Davis faced the Jets, he caught just 2 passes for 33 yards on 5 targets.
- The Cowboys boast the No. 1 in pass defense EPA this season.
- They have allowed the second-fewest targets per game to No. 1 WRs (6.4) and the second-fewest receiving yards per game at 49.1 receiving yards.
- And since Week 6, Dallas ranks 5th in fewest receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs overall.
- With a pass rush that figures to give Kyle Allen fits all day long, Nico Collins hardly offers a massive fantasy ceiling in this spot after a subpar outing in Week 13.
- Collins saw a whopping 10 targets (27% target share) but caught just 3 passes for 35 yards.
- His final numbers were boosted by a late TD score.
- The second-year WR saw 173 air yards (60% air yards share) and went 0-4 on his 4 targets of 20-plus air yards.
- You are threading the needle attaching yourself to any Texans player in Week 14.
- Philly is allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs (9.3) this season.
- Their real weakness has been from the slot, as they have been without starter Avonte Maddox for several weeks.
- For that reason, you can’t view Darius Slayton as anything more than a low-end WR3/FLEX option, even though he has been productive as the Giants’ WR1.
- I’m afraid the Eagles’ strong cornerback tandem on the boundary will limit Slayton despite his 23% target share dating back to Week 7.
- Philly ranks 1st in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs this season.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster came back to a full-time role in Week 13 but didn’t do much again: 3 for 35 on 4 targets despite leading the team in routes (81%).
- And things don’t project to get much better ahead of a brutal matchup versus the Denver Broncos, who have allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points allowed to perimeter WRs and 2nd in fewest fantasy points allowed overall to WRs.
- Last week, Smith-Schuster ran the highest percentage of his routes from out-wide among Chiefs WRs.
- That does him no favors against Broncos stud cornerback Patrick Surtain, who he will likely see plenty of in Week 14.
- The Broncos are also allowing the league’s fewest yards after the catch. Meanwhile, Smith-Schuster ranks 5th in YAC/reception this season.
- Since Week 7, the Seahawks have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs (6.5) but third-most to the slot.
- They also rank 1st in that category this season (5.9).
- Moore has played just 28% of his snaps from the slot this season.
- Additionally, Seattle is allowing the fewest targets per game to No. 1 WRs.
- Considering Moore’s up-and-down production among a rotating cast of quarterbacks, I’d be wary of starting him hoping I’ll get exactly what he posted in Week 12 before the team’s bye week.
- Keep in mind that he only caught 4 passes – 3 of which were on throws of 20-plus air yards.
- Sam Darnold‘s track record hardly predicts that his super efficient downfield throwing will carry over.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
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