Week 13 Quick Grades (2022 Fantasy Football Start or Sit Advice)

Welcome to Week 13, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

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Week 13 QB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Mac Jones: After struggling for the entire season, Jones is finally coming out of his funk. Over the last two weeks, he’s seventh in PFF passing grade, fourth in yards per attempt, first in adjusted completion rate, and 16th in big-time throw rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). He destroyed Minnesota last week as the QB7 in fantasy. This week he looks to keep the train rolling against a reeling Buffalo secondary. The Bills’ pass defense hasn’t lived up to their lofty expectations since Week 7. Since then, they are 22nd in passing yards per game, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 22nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Jones is a strong QB2 that could again flirt with the top 12 if this game turns into a shootout.

Kenny Pickett: Pickett is stuck in perennial QB2 purgatory. Since Week 10, his play has improved slightly as he ranks 19th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in adjusted completion rate, and 14th in big-time throw rate, but he’s only managed QB12, QB16, and QB25 weekly finishes. Luckily for Pickett, the Falcons remain a soft matchup for quarterbacks. Since Week 7, they are 19th in passing yards per game, 26th in EPA per dropback, and 15th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Marcus Mariota: Mariota’s passing shortcomings have proven too much for his rushing to make up for. Despite rushing for at least 24 yards in each of his last four games (at least 43 yards in two games), Mariota hasn’t finished as a QB1 since Week 8. Mariota hasn’t eclipsed 7.1 yards per attempt or 200 passing yards since Week 8. He’s ranked 25th in PFF passing grade and 41st in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Steelers should allow Mariota to finish with a decent stat line through the air. Since Week 7, they are 31st in passing yards per game, 29th in EPA per drop back, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Without Kyle Pitts and with Atlanta refusing to feature London, Mariota’s passing numbers are likely muted despite the glorious matchup. Mariota is a QB2.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been on fire. Over his last six games, he’s finished as a QB1 five times and is the QB11 in fantasy points per game over that stretch. Since Week 9, he’s second in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and second in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Lawrence is a strong QB1 against a weak Lions secondary. Since Week 7, Detroit is 30th in passing yards per game, 20th in EPA per drop back, and 31st in explosive pass rate. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

Jared Goff: Goff remains a QB2 as his streak of QB2 finishes remains intact. Goff hasn’t cracked the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks since Week 4. It doesn’t help Goff that since Week 7, Detroit is tenth in red zone rushing rate, so his touchdown upside is sketchy at best. Goff is 17th in fantasy points per dropback, 13th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in true completion rate. Jacksonville offers Goff a chance to break the curse. Since Week 7, they have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have also ranked 31st in EPA per dropback and 28th in yards per attempt.

Mike White: The legend of Mike White grew even larger last week. White, in his first start of the season, finished with 315 passing yards and three scores as the QB6 for the week. White finished the week eighth in PFF passing grade, first in yards per attempt, and ninth in adjusted completion rate. These are all great things, but we also need a dose of reality mixed in here. White was also 26th in aDOT (5.9), so the truth is he was also making short throws, and his receivers were creating glory after the catch. The great thing for White is that this formula can be replicated successfully in Week 13. The Vikings have been a pass-funnel defense this season. Since Week 7, they are 32nd in passing yards per game, 29th in explosive pass rate, and 26 in success rate per dropback. Minnesota has also surrendered the 12th-most YAC, so White can pummel this defense with short throws once again. The Vikings’ 22nd ranked pressure rate should ensure he has clean pockets for most of the game. White is a QB2 that could find himself inside the top 12 again this week.

Kirk Cousins: Cousins came through last week as the QB9 in fantasy with 299 passing yards and three touchdowns. The Vikings effectively neutralized the Patriots’ pass rush last week, with Cousins quickly getting the ball out of his hands. He had the ninth-lowest time to throw and fourth-lowest aDOT last week. This will be the plan of attack again this week against a Jets front that’s fifth in pressure rate. New York is no cakewalk as they are seventh in passing yards per game, first in EPA per drop back, and fifth in explosive pass rate allowed since Week 7. They have allowed the 12th-fewest YAC and missed tackles, so don’t expect many 40-yard plays on a four-yard crossing route. Cousins is a borderline QB1/high-end QB2.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.

Week 13 WR Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Garrett Wilson: Wilson has produced whenever he’s managed to receive catchable targets. Last week was one of those weeks where he vacuumed up a 28.6% target share with 95 receiving yards and two scores. Wilson is the WR31 in fantasy with a 22.6% target share, 22.9% air yard share, and 12 red zone targets (11th-best). Wilson is 12th in PFF receiving grade and 25th in yards per route run despite suffering through a 73.4% catchable target rate (69th, woof). Wilson will run about 53% of his routes against Duke Shelley (2021: 76.1% catch rate, 103.8 passer rating) and Patrick Peterson (60.9% catch rate, 72.0 passer rating) as a WR2.

Corey Davis: Last week, Davis returned to the lineup seeing a 10.7% target share with a 76.7% route run rate (second-highest among wide receivers behind only Wilson). Davis likely sees his route rate climb further this week with only him and Wilson remaining on the field in both 11 and 12 personnel. In Weeks 1-6, Davis had a 15.2% target share, 29.1% air yard share, and 15.2 aDOT. Davis was playing good football, ranking 27th in PFF receiving grade and 26th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He managed four red zone targets in those six games. Davis will run about 77% of his routes against Shelley and Peterson as a WR4/5.

Elijah Moore: Pump the brakes, Moore truthers. Yes, he did pop off for 64 receiving yards and a score, but he wasn’t close to being a full-time player last week. Moore only saw a 7.1% target share and a 43.3% route run rate. Each of these numbers has to climb for him to get consideration for fantasy lineups. For now, he’s a stash, but don’t plug him into your lineups expecting the same type of state line, although the matchup is beautiful. When on the field, he’ll run about 61% of his routes against Chandon Sullivan (80% catch rate, 113.2 passer rating).

Treylon Burks: Since Burks’ breakout in Week 11, he has a 23% target share while averaging 90.5 receiving yards with a 40% team air yard share. He’s been targeted on 28% of his routes producing a whopping 3.62 yards per route run. Over the last two weeks, he’s finished as the WR12 and WR18 in fantasy, although we need to acknowledge that part of his WR18 finish was due to a fluke touchdown he was gifted after flopping on the ball. Burks is a talented rookie, but he’s in for a long day while running 79% of his routes against James Bradberry (45.7% catch rate, 44.4 passer rating) and Darius Slay (51.9% catch rate, 54.2 passer rating). Burks is a WR3.

Courtland Sutton: Sutton’s fantasy season has long been sunk. Wilson’s struggles. Nathaniel Hackett’s ineptitude. Pick a reason. The Denver offense is broken. Sutton is the WR37 in fantasy with a 24.5% target share and 28.9% air yard share. Volume hasn’t been the problem for Sutton, who has at least seven targets, five receptions, and 66 receiving yards in each of his last three games. The issue is as bad as this offense has been, he has zero ceiling without touchdowns along the way. Sutton hasn’t scored since Week 4, which happens to be his only time this season. Over the last three games, he’s been a high-floor WR3, finishing as the WR32, WR26, and WR30. Sutton is a WR3 that will run about 86% of his routes against Marcus Peters (69.2% catch rate, 120.0 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (61% catch rate, 97.9 passer rating).

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Last week, Smith-Schuster only drew an 8.1% target share while handling a 45.7% route run rate. This could easily have been a means of easing him back in coming off the concussion in a game where they didn’t need to push him to win. In Weeks 1-9, Smith-Schuster had a 19.4% target share, 21.2% air yard share, and 2.05 yards per route run. He managed ten red zone targets. Assuming Smith-Schuster is a full-time player in Week 13, he’s a WR2 that will run about 56% of his routes against Eli Apple (56.3% catch rate, 95.6 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (78.9% catch rate, 127.9 passer rating). Toney was also a DNP on Wednesday. It looks like he could miss another week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling has been a role player. In Weeks 1-9, he had a 12.4% target share averaging 47.6 receiving yards per game with 1.36 yards per route run. He’s essentially Demarcus Robinson 2.0. A cardio king that will pop off for a big game in the week that you never considered playing him. Valdes-Scantling has finished outside the top 48 wide receivers in fantasy in seven of his 11 games. He’s a WR5/6.

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR18 in fantasy points per game with a 26.1% target share (18th) and 27.9% air yard share. Pittman is 34th in PFF receiving grade and 45th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s been the chain mover for Indy with only two deep targets. With only eight red zone targets this season and two since Ryan’s return, Pittman’s lack of a role inside the 20 has been head-scratching all year. Pittman is a WR3 who could be erased by Trevon Diggs (63.6% catch rate, 81.3 passer rating) this week. Diggs followed Justin Jefferson on 82% of his routes in Week 11 and could easily do the same this week. Diggs limited Jefferson to two receptions and 19 receiving yards.

Week 13 RB Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Alvin Kamara: Kamara is the RB13 in fantasy averaging 18 touches and 94.6 total yards. Apparently, I missed the memo that Kamara can only score touchdowns against the Raiders this season. That’s how it has played out. All three of his scores came in Week 8, and outside of that game, it’s been a barren wasteland for six-point dances. Kamara is 30th in red zone touches and seventh in weighted opportunity. While he’s not prime Kamara, he’s still good enough, ranking sixth in yards per route run, 29th in evaded tackles, and seventh in yards created per touch. Since Week 7, the Bucs are eighth in rush success rate, 23rd in rushing yards per game, and 30th in explosive run rate allowed. Kamara remains an RB1.

Rhamondre Stevenson: MONDRE SZN rolls on! Since Week 5, Stevenson has averaged 20 touches and 110.1 total yards per game. Since Week 7, he has led all running backs in target share (25.2%) and receiving yards per game while ranking second in receptions only to Austin Ekeler. As good as Stevenson is as a pass catcher, there’s an argument that he’s even better in the rushing department, ranking 11th in yards after contact per attempt, 21st in breakaway rate, and 19th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Buffalo’s recent struggles to stop the run continue as they are 25th in rushing yards per game, 24th in explosive run rate, and 30th in rushing success rate since Week 7. Stevenson is a top-shelf RB1.

Aaron Jones: Jones still owns the backfield averaging 16.5 touches and 79.5 total yards over their last two games. He’s played at least 66% of the snaps with a bump in his target share (19%) since Week 11. Jones isn’t slowing down as the season has progressed, ranking 24th in yards after contact per attempt, 15th in PFF’s elusive rating, and 16th in yards per route run. Jones ripped the Bears apart earlier this season with 18 touches and 170 total yards, and he’s poised to do it again. Since Week 7, Chicago is 15th in rushing success rate, 15th in rushing yards per game, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Jones is an RB1.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon was more efficient with his work last week, with 88 total yards, but the overall usage didn’t change. He still played 43% of the snaps, saw 11 touches, and ceded red zone work to Jones. With Jones handling most of the pass game work, Dillon has to get it done on the ground weekly to produce for fantasy. Last week’s touchdown was his first since Week 1. Dillon is tenth in juke rate and evaded tackles. With the plus rushing matchup incoming, he’s an RB3 with RB2 upside if he gets into the end zone.

David Montgomery: Montgomery saw Darrynton Evans cut into his work some last week with ten touches (67 total yards), and 32% of the snaps played, but Montgomery still led the way with 17 touches and 113 total yards. Montgomery is poised for some touchdown regression, with only one score over his last five games despite 14 red zone opportunities. Montgomery rattled off 122 rushing yards in Week 2 against this defense, and he’s primed for a repeat performance this week. Montgomery is seventh in missed tackles forced and 14th in PFF’s elusive rating. Since Week 7, Green Bay has been 24th in rushing success rate, 30th in rushing yards per game, and 26th in explosive run rate allowed. They have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game this season to running backs. Montgomery is a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley has had a rough couple of games recently, averaging 16 touches and only 43.5 total yards in Weeks 11-12. Last week I noted that Barkley’s efficiency had begun to crater, but we have reached worrisome levels now. Barkley has seen his yards after contact per attempt drop in each of the last five weeks, with an abysmal 1.18 last week. Over his last seven games, he’s surpassed 2.50 yards after contact per attempt only once. Let’s also be clear this isn’t an offensive line issue. Since Week 5, he ranks 18th in yards before contact per carry, but he’s fourth worst in yards after contact per carry, with only Melvin Gordon, Jamaal Williams, and Devin Singletary finishing worst. Those names should open some eyes. This week doesn’t look any kinder to Barkley. Since Week 7, Washington is 13th in rushing success rate, fourth in rushing yards per game, and sixth in explosive run rate allowed. Barkley is a low-end volume-based RB1.

Miles Sanders: Sanders is coming off a huge game with 24 touches and 160 total yards. It would be wonderful to forecast another banner day for Sanders, but the Titans’ run defense and the Packers’ run defense aren’t even in the same area code. Sanders is the RB18 averaging 17.5 touches and 87.3 total yards. Sanders is 12th in evaded tackles, 25th in juke rate, and 21st in yards per touch. He’s also 12th in breakaway runs. With only a 6.0% target share, Sanders doesn’t have the pass game involvement to bail him out if the rushing yards and touchdowns aren’t there. Since Week 7, Tennessee has been fifth in rushing success rate, second in rushing yards per game, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. Sanders is an RB2/3.

Latavius Murray: Bellcow Latavius Murray. About seven or eight years ago, I would have been jazzed to read that, but in 2022, it’s just sad. Murray played 82% of the snaps last week, turning his 14 touches into 98 total yards. I know you’ll read those numbers and wonder why I’m dismissing Murray so much. Well, 52 yards came on one run that was well blocked that I could have gained at least 15 yards on. Probably not, but you get where I’m going with this. Among 72 rushers with at least 25 carries, Murray ranks 71st in yards after contact per attempt, 56th in breakaway rate, and 59th in PFF’s elusive rating. That 52-yard scamper is his first breakaway run this season across 87 carries. Murray is running like a 32-year-old running back that shouldn’t be on an NFL roster, but it’s Denver, so here we are. Since Week 7, Baltimore has stonewalled running backs ranking top two in rushing yards, EPA per rush, and explosive run rate allowed. Murray is a touchdown or bust volume based RB3/4.

Gus Edwards: Edwards returned last week, playing 50% of snaps with 16 carries, 52 rushing yards, and a touchdown. He handled 84.2% of the rushing work and 85% of the red zone opportunities for the running back room. Edwards sits at 15th in yards after contact per attempt and 13th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Since Week 7, Denver has fallen off some as a rushing defense. Since then, they are 24th in rushing yards per game, 16th in EPA per rush, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. Edwards is an RB3 that needs a touchdown to pay off.

Week 13 TE Start/Sit Grades

Notes

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich’s stat lines have sunk like the Titanic as this entire offense prays for the Week 18 iceberg to end this dreadful Broncos’ season. Dulcich’s peripherals still look fine, as he has a 14.9% target share, 68.3% route run rate, and 1.43 yards per route run. The problem is that the meat of those statistics came in his first three games. He hasn’t crossed the 40-yard receiving threshold since Week 8. Dulcich is a TE2 with a favorable matchup. Baltimore has allowed the sixth-highest catch rate and eighth-most touchdowns (tied) to tight ends.

Mark Andrews: Andrews’ stat line would have looked better last week if he hadn’t dropped an easy touchdown. Regardless, Andrews is a top-three tight end weekly. He is top-three among tight ends in target share, target rate per route run, deep targets, and red zone targets. You’re playing him weekly regardless of the matchup if you have Andrews. Denver is eighth in DVOA, holding tight ends to the 12th-lowest catch rate and only three receiving touchdowns.

Tyler Higbee: Higbee played 59% of the snaps last week and didn’t draw a single target. With the quarterback play for this offense hitting a new low and running the ball now the main focus, we can toss out most of the full-season stats for Higbee. Higbee becomes a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 weekly based on the matchups. This week’s opponent makes his streamer worthy. Seattle is 27th in DVOA against tight ends allowing the second-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game.

Mike Gesicki: Gesicki has become an afterthought in this offense. Since Week 8, he has had a 7.5% target share (2.5 targets per game), averaging 18 receiving yards with a 57.9% route run rate and 0.82 yards per route run. Gesicki is a TE2. The 49ers are ninth in DVOA against the tight end, holding them to the second-lowest yards per reception and fifth-lowest fantasy points per game.

George Kittle: Kittle could blow up with a vintage game this week. He’s the TE6 seeing an 18.4% target share (eighth-best) and 15.3% air yard share (seventh-best). Kittle is ranked ninth in PFF receiving grade and sits at 11th in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). Miami can’t guard tight ends this season, ranking 29th in DVOA, bleeding out the third-highest catch rate, sixth-highest receiving yards per game, and third-most fantasy points per game. Kittle could fight Kelce for TE1 overall this week.

Gerald Everett: Everett is the TE9 in fantasy points per game with a 14.3% target share and 62.1% route participation clip. He’s sixth among tight ends in red zone targets while also ranking 21st in yards per route run. Everett has been a top-ten fantasy tight end four times this season. This week’s matchup against the Raiders could be his fifth. The Raiders have surrendered the eighth-highest catch rate and fifth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to tight ends. Everett is a TE1.

Foster Moreau: Since assuming the starting role, Moreau has a 15.6% target share, 38.5% end zone target share, and 81.4% route run rate. Since Week 7, he’s 17th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Moreau is a TE1. Los Angeles is 26th in DVOA, allowing the highest yards per reception and 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Week 13 D/ST Start/Sit Grades

Week 13 K Start/Sit Grades