Week 14 Player Notes & Start/Sit Advice

I’m above consensus on Christian Kirk, who’s seen at least seven targets in each of his last six games. He has 37 receptions over that stretch, averaging 6.2 catches and 77.8 receiving yards per game. Kirk has already established a new career high with seven TD catches, and he’s the WR12 in half-point PPR scoring. Trevor Lawrence seems to have avoided serious injury after a scary-looking moment last week when he was folded in a grotesque-looking way. He has a sprained big toe and reportedly is on track to play this week. Kirk has an appealing matchup against the Titans, who are giving up the most fantasy points per game to WRs. Tennessee has been using safety Amani Hooker to cover slot receivers, and Hooker has actually done a pretty good job of it. But I like Kirk’s chances in a matchup against any safety in the league. Start him with confidence.

Amari Cooper investors have reason to be at least slightly nervous. I think Cooper investors are probably compelled to start him this week, but his first game with Deshaun Watson was a little discouraging. Cooper saw nine targets last week but finished with 4-40-0 against the Texans. This week, Cooper faces a Bengals defense that he torched for 5-131-1 on Halloween night. The Bengals has been tough on wide receivers, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to WRs this year, but I’m less concerned about the matchup than I am about Cooper’s still-developing chemistry with Watson.

My ranking of Jerry Jeudy as a low-end WR2 assumes that Courtland Sutton is going to be out with a hamstring injury. Jeudy came back from a high-ankle sprain last week and had 4-65-0 on only 20 snaps. Jeudy has been pretty good this year when healthy. He’s averaging 8.7 yards per target and 1.94 yards per route run – rock-solid efficiency numbers, especially when you consider how bad the Denver passing game has been overall. If Sutton is out, there’s a good chance Jeudy sees eight or more targets in a matchup against a Chiefs defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to WRs.

I’m fading Deebo Samuel, who hasn’t produced more than 58 receiving yards in a game since Oct. 16, and now he’s going to be catching passes from backup QB Brock Purdy. Deebo has scored four touchdowns this season, and just one in his last six games. His one score over that span was a 39-yard TD run against the Cardinals. Even with that long touchdown run, Deebo has only 102 rushing yards since Week 3, which works out to 11.3 rushing yards per game. Also, Deebo has a tough matchup against the Buccaneers this week. You can bet that Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is going to be dialing up some special stuff for Purdy in this one.

Adam Thielen has derived much of his fantasy value from touchdowns in recent years. He scored 14 TDs in 2020 and 10 in 2021. But Thielen has scored only three touchdowns this year, and he’s on pace for an 870-yard season. He hasn’t produced more than 72 receiving yards in a game all year. Thielen’s efficiency numbers continue to trend downward. He’s averaging a career-low 10.4 yards per catch and a career-low 7.0 yards per target. Thielen gets a favorable Week 14 matchup with the Lions, against whom he had 6-61-1 in Week 3. But even with the appealing matchup — and even with six teams on bye — I wouldn’t be excited about putting Thielen into my lineup this week if I were in a must-win game.

In the four games that Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow has missed with an oblique injury, Mack Hollins has averaged 7.3 targets. Hollins hasn’t really cashed in on all those targets, averaging 4.3 catches for 42 yards and scoring one touchdown over that stretch. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels says he doesn’t know if Renfrow will be back this week — which makes it sound like Renfrow won’t be back. When the Raiders face the Rams on Thursday night, Hollins is going to be running a good percentage of his routes against sixth-round rookie Derion Kendrick. PFF has grades for 119 cornerbacks, and Kendrick is graded 111th. Kendrick is giving up 1.85 yards and 0.35 fantasy points per route run into his coverage. I think Hollins is a sneaky-good start in a week with six teams on bye.

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