The Primer: Week 17 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers

• MIN -3.5, O/U 47
• Vikings vs. Packers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 11, the Vikings have been 11th in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate. This season they are third in red zone passing rate.
• Over their last four games, Green Bay has been 29th in neutral pace and 18th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Kirk Cousins: Cousins has been on fire. He has climbed the ladder to QB10 in fantasy with top-six fantasy games (QB5, QB3, QB6) in each of the last three weeks. Cousins is tenth in PFF passing grade, fifth in passing yards, fourth in passing touchdowns, seventh in big-time throws, and 13th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 11, the Packers have been a defense you can pass on. They have been 23rd in fantasy points per game, 22nd in passing touchdowns per game, and 27th in EPA per dropback. Cousins remains a QB1.

Aaron Rodgers: I would love to say that Rodgers can smash this pitiful secondary for the Vikings, but it’s a coin flip. Rodgers has looked off all season. He has faltered in matchups that he would have crushed in previous seasons this year. In Week 1, the Vikings held him to 195 passing yards, 5.7 yards per attempt, and a QB32 fantasy week. Rodgers still has only two QB1 weeks this season and none since Week 10. He is 22nd in fantasy points per dropback, 23rd in true completion rate, and 25th in yards per attempt. Since Week 11, the Vikings have been 22nd in success rate per dropback, 28th in EPA per drop back, and 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Rodgers is a QB2 with QB1 upside.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook: Cook is the RB12 in fantasy, ranking fourth in opportunity share, eighth in weighted opportunities, and sixth in red zone touches. He has averaged 18.7 touches and 92.4 total yards this season. Cook is 16th in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway rate, and 20th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). The Packers remain one of the best matchups you can ask for a running back. Since Week 11, they have been 30th in rushing success rate, 30th in EPA per rush, and 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Cook is a locked-in RB1.

Aaron Jones: Jones practiced on a limited basis all week (knee/ankle). He doesn’t carry an injury tag this week. This story is similar to Week 16 when we saw the same scenario play out. Jones played only 38% of the snaps last week, with eight touches and 34 yards. Not exactly the usage you expected from a player that is most likely an RB1 or RB2 in your lineup. Tread cautiously this week. Jones likely isn’t close to full health, and I worry his workload this week could look similar, with Dillon shouldering more of the load. Jones is the RB13 this season. He’s 12th in red zone touches, 11th in yards per route run, eighth in evaded tackles, and tenth in breakaway runs, so even on limited volume, he could break a long one or plunge in for a short touchdown. Since Week 11, Minnesota has been 21st in rushing yards per game, 20th in EPA per rush, and 11th in explosive run rate allowed. Jones is an RB2.

A.J. Dillon: Last week, Dillon played 58% of the snaps with 13 touches and 48 total yards. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his last four games. Dillon has finished as a top-20 fantasy back in each of the last four weeks (RB13, RB6, RB9, RB20). He has nine red zone carries over his last two games. Dillon is 15th in juke rate, 16th in evaded tackles, and 28th in breakaway runs. He’s a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 this week.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson: Play Justin Jefferson. That is all. Seriously though, what do I need to tell you at this point? Jefferson is the WR1 in fantasy crushing every secondary in sight. Jefferson punked this secondary in Week 1 with nine grabs and 184 receiving yards (WR1). I won’t be shocked if Jefferson tries to top those numbers this week.

Adam Thielen: Thielen has shown his age all season. He’s the WR41 in fantasy with a 17.2% target share, 21.1% air-yard share, and 53rd-ranked open rate (out of 81 WRs). Thielen is eighth in red zone targets and 84th in yards per route run. Thielen has eight games in which he finished as a WR3 or higher. Thielen is a WR4 that will run about 67% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (59.1% catch rate, 65.2 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (70% catch rate, 87.9 passer rating).

K.J. Osborn: Osborn’s blow-up games haven’t been worth chasing this year. Two of his three fantasy-relevant games this season came against Detroit and the other against the Colts, who have forgotten how to cover slot receivers. Osborn hasn’t finished with more than 50 receiving yards or higher than WR46 in any other week. Don’t worry about Osborn. Since Week 11, the Packers have held slot receivers the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game.

Christian Watson: Watson (hip) didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday. He managed a limited practice on Friday, earning himself a questionable tag. Watson is trending toward a game-time decision, per Matt LaFleur. Watson carries significant risk if he suits up. He could be limited. Watson could be limited and still boom this week. Since Week 10, Watson has led the team with a 22.4% target share, a 41.2% end zone target share, a 38% air yard share, and 2.87 yards per route run. He has 11 red zone targets over his last six games. Watson is a WR3 with massive upside that will run about 69% of his routes against Peterson and Shelley.

Allen Lazard: Lazard has a 20.9% target share (34th) and 31.9% air yard share (18th) as the WR38 in fantasy. Over the last six games, Lazard’s season has tanked with only two WR3 finishes. Watson easily supplanted him as Rodgers’ top receiving option. In Weeks 11 and 16, Lazard saw 11 targets per game but could only muster 57 and 61 scoreless receiving yards, as Rodgers seems to be reading from a different book than anyone else on the team. Rodgers will have to lean on Lazard heavily this week if Watson is out. Lazard’s high-value target usage could lead to a big week, as he’s eighth in deep targets and 15th in red zone looks. Lazard is a WR3 that will run about 58% of his routes against Patrick Peterson (59.4% catch rate, 71.8 passer rating) and Duke Shelley (56.3% catch rate, 77.6 passer rating).

Romeo Doubs: Last week, Doubs wasn’t a full-time player, with a 52% route run rate and 13.1% target share. If Watson is out, he will bump to a full-time role. Since his return in Week 15, Doubs has a 16.7% target share, 2.60 yards per route run, and a 31% target per route run rate. Rodgers has looked for him consistently when he’s been on the field. Doubs would run about 86% of his routes against Peterson and Shelley as a WR3/4. If Watson is active, Doubs is a low-end WR4.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson: Since arriving in Minnesota, Hockenson is second to only Travis Kelce in targets (73) and receiving yards (434) and has been first in air yards. As a Viking, Hockenson has had a 22.4% target share and 19.5% air yard share as the TE2 in fantasy. Since Week 11, the Packers have been 32nd in catch rate, 16th in yards per reception, and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Hockenson is a top-three fantasy tight end.

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan has flopped in numerous juicy matchups that he’s not on the matchup streamer radar anymore. This week he faces a Minnesota pass defense that, since Week 11, has been sixth in fantasy points per game, seventh in catch rate, and 14th in receiving yards per game allowed to tight ends.

DAL vs. TEN | ARI vs. ATL | CHI vs. DET | DEN vs. KC | MIA vs. NE | IND vs. NYG | NO vs. PHI | CAR vs. TB | CLE vs. WAS | JAC vs. HOU | SF vs. LV | NYJ vs. SEA | MIN vs. GB | LAR vs. LAC | PIT vs. BAL | BUF vs. CIN

Los Angeles Rams vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -6.5, O/U 41
• Rams vs. Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Mayfield calling the shots, the Rams have been 19th in neutral script pace and 20th in neutral passing rate. They have third in red zone passing rate.
• Since Week 11, the Chargers have slowed to 11th in neutral pace while passing at the highest rate in the NFL in close contests.

Quarterbacks

Baker Mayfield: With the Rams, Mayfield has been 26th in PFF passing grade, 19th in yards per attempt, and 17th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Mayfield has finished as the QB16, QB29, and QB12 in fantasy. Since Week 11, the Chargers have been second in success rate per dropback, fifth in EPA per drop back, and 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Mayfield is a QB2 with a limited ceiling if the Rams lean on Akers this week.

Justin Herbert: Since Week 14, with his full cupboard of weapons, Herbert has been 15th in PFF passing grade, 15th in yards per attempt, and first in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). He has fallen on his face the last two weeks when fantasy matchups have mattered the most as the QB25 and QB30 in fantasy. Before that, he had rattled off four straight games as a top-ten fantasy quarterback (QB33, QB9, QB10, QB9). This should be a spectacular bounce-back effort by Herbert. Since Week 11, the Rams have been 32nd in success rate per dropback, 26th in EPA per drop back, and 27th in passing yards per game. Herbert is a QB1 with a high ceiling this week.

Running Backs

Cam Akers: If you’ve been reading the Primer, you already know Akers has been playing much better than his box scores indicate. Well, every box score before Week 16. Akers exploded last week with a season-high 23 carries for 118 rushing yards and three scores. He’s earned more work over the last three weeks as the Rams have realized that he has been closer to his pre-injury form. He’s played at least 72% of the snaps in three of his last four games. Since Week 10, Akers has been 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, tenth in missed tackles forced, 14th in runs of ten-plus yards (tied with Rhamondre Stevenson), and ninth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Akers should be able to build on last week’s success in Week 17. Since Week 11, the Chargers have been 16th in rushing success rate, 20th in EPA per rush, and 24th in rushing yards per game. Akers is a solid RB2 with RB1 upside this week.

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler opened the week with a limited session (knee). It’s not time to sound the alarm whistle yet, but if you have him on your roster, Joshua Kelley is a player that has to be on your bench. Ekeler is the RB1 in fantasy, ranking 13th in opportunity share, first in weighted opportunities, and first in red zone touches. Ekeler is also top-ten in evaded tackles (seventh), yards per route run (seventh), breakaway runs (17th), and yards created per touch (fifth). Since Week 11, the Rams’ once-vaunted run defense has slipped with Aaron Donald out. Since then, they have been 24th in rushing success rate, 22nd in EPA per rush, and 16th in rushing yards per game. Ekeler is a top-three running back.

Wide Receivers

Van Jefferson: Jefferson has had a 13.6% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, 28.5% air yard share, and 1.08 yards per route run, with Mayfield tossing him passes. Outside of the magical comeback game, Jefferson has finished as the WR64 and WR66 in fantasy. He’s a WR5/6 that will run about 83% of his routes against Asante Samuel Jr. (59.3% catch rate, 95.7 passer rating) and Michael Davis (54.5% catch rate, 76.8 passer rating).

Tutu Atwell: Since Week 14, Atwell has had an 18.5% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, 77.9% route run rate, and 1.00 yards per route run. Atwell faces an uphill climb this week against a secondary that, since Week 11, has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Atwell is a WR5/6 that will run about 59% of his routes against Bryce Callahan (75% catch rate, 94.4 passer rating).

Keenan Allen: Since Week 13, Allen has had a 31.9% target share while averaging 96 receiving yards per game. He’s seen a 37.3% air-yard share with 2.23 yards per route run. Allen has finished as the WR12, WR10, WR19, and WR9 over this span, with eight red zone targets. Allen is a WR1 that will run about 61% of his routes against Jalen Ramsey (64.1% catch rate, 109.3 passer rating) and Cobie Durant (69.2% catch rate, 87.3 passer rating).

Mike Williams: Since Week 14, with the entire cast of Chargers’ characters back in the huddle, Williams has seen a 15.7% target share with a 40% end zone target share. With his 30.8% air yard share and 13.1 aDOT, Williams has resumed his downfield role with 2.38 yards per route run. Williams should crush this week. Since Week 14, the Rams cornerback trio has operated in zone coverage on 58-61% of their snaps. Since Week 14, Allen has seen 58% of his target volume against zone with 1.90 yards per route run (71.3 PFF receiving grade). Those numbers are nothing to scoff at, but Williams has been better, with 66.7% of his target volume against zone and 1.99 yards per route run (72.4 PFF receiving grade). Williams will run about 86% of his routes against Troy Hill (70% catch rate, 96.5 passer rating) and Jalen Ramsey when Ramsey doesn’t move inside to guard Allen.

Joshua Palmer: Palmer’s breakout and short-lived dominance have become things of the past. With Allen and Williams back at full capacity, Palmer hasn’t seen more than six targets or logged more than 53 receiving yards. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 11. Palmer has a 65.6 PFF receiving grade and a forgettable 1.28 yards per route run against zone since Week 14. Palmer is a WR4/5.

Tight Ends

Tyler Higbee: With Mayfield, Higbee has had a 23.5% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, and 2.06 yards per route run. He has been targeted on 30% of his routes as Mayfield’s favorite target. Higbee has been the TE9 and TE2 in his last two games, with five red zone targets. Higbee is a TE1. Since Week 11, the Chargers have been third in catch rate, 25th in receiving yards per game, and 22nd in fantasy points per game.

Gerald Everett: Since Week 14, like Palmer, Everett has faded away, averaging only 4.7 targets and 23.3 receiving yards per game. He played 54% of the snaps last week and failed to draw a target. Everett is the TE12 this season with a 14.5% target share and the sixth-most red zone targets among tight ends. Since Week 11, the Rams have been 26th in fantasy points per game, 19th in receiving yards per game, and 18th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Everett is a TE2 that could easily fall into TE1 production this week.

DAL vs. TEN | ARI vs. ATL | CHI vs. DET | DEN vs. KC | MIA vs. NE | IND vs. NYG | NO vs. PHI | CAR vs. TB | CLE vs. WAS | JAC vs. HOU | SF vs. LV | NYJ vs. SEA | MIN vs. GB | LAR vs. LAC | PIT vs. BAL | BUF vs. CIN

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens

• BAL -3, O/U 36
• Steelers vs. Ravens Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• With Huntley under center, the Ravens have been 31st in neutral pace and second in neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 10, the Steelers have dropped to 25th in neutral pace while ranking sixth in neutral rushing rate. This game will be smothered by slow play and a ton of rushing.

Quarterbacks

Kenny Pickett: At this point in the season, we know what to expect from Pickett. He’s a snooze-worthy QB2. Pickett is 24th in PFF passing grade, 19th in adjusted completion rate, and 39th in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). He’s the QB29 in fantasy points per game, sitting at QB29 in fantasy points per dropback. His best fantasy finish over his last four full games has been as the QB15 for the week. Since Week 11, the Ravens have been 20th in success rate per dropback, tenth in EPA per drop back, and second in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Tyler Huntley: Huntley looks headed for another start this week. Sadly Huntley has been nothing short of terrible under center. He has finished as the QB15, QB31, and QB18 in his three full starts. He has at least 26 rushing yards in his three full starts, which never eclipsing 200 passing yards in any week. Huntley has only managed one passing touchdown in his tenure as the starter. Since Week 11, the Steelers have been 16th in success rate per dropback, 20th in EPA per drop back, and third in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Huntley is a QB2.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Harris is the RB20 in fantasy, ranking tenth in opportunity share, 12th in weighted opportunities, and seventh in carries. He’s ninth in evaded tackles, 21st in juke rate, and 23rd in yards created. Harris has finished as an RB2 or higher in four of his last six games (RB3, RB15, RB17, RB13) while never finishing lower than RB28 in that stretch. The Ravens are a nasty run defense, ranking second in rushing success rate, second in EPA per rush, and sixth in fantasy points per game allowed since Week 11. Harris is an RB2.

J.K. Dobbins: Dobbins has averaged 13.3 carries and 101.3 rushing yards since his return. Last week’s scoreless 59 yards rushing is the floor for Dobbins. While he ran for a stout 4.9 yards per carry, if he doesn’t blow it out of the water with his efficiency and get into the end zone, you’re likely disappointed. Since Week 14, Dobbins has been ninth in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in breakaway rate, and 20th in PFF elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has been 14th in rushing success rate, tenth in rushing yards per game, and eighth in explosive run rate allowed. Dobbins is a volatile RB2.

Gus Edwards: Edwards has been Dobbins’s spiderman meme since Week 14, averaging 10.3 rushing attempts and 73.3 rushing yards. Over the last three games, he’s third in yards after contact per attempt, 11th in breakaway rate, and ninth in PFF elusive rating. Edwards is an RB3.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: With Pickett under center for full games, Johnson has seen a 23.1% target share, 37.5% end zone target share, and a 30% air yard share. The sad part is that this bevy of volume has meant nothing all season, as he has 1.22 yards per route run in that sample. Johnson is the WR42 in fantasy points per game, ranking 18th in deep targets and 11th in red zone targets. He’s 62nd in fantasy points per route run and still hasn’t scored a touchdown this season. Johnson is a WR4 that will run about 87% of his routes against Marlon Humphrey (65.2% catch rate, 70.3 passer rating) and Brandon Stephens (62.2% catch rate, 97.7 passer rating).

George Pickens: In that same seven-game sample, Pickens has a 13.9% target share, 24.5% air yard share, and 12.6 aDOT. Pickens is sixth in aDOT and has the eighth most deep targets among receivers. His WR17 finish last week was his highest since he was WR11 in Week 11. Baltimore has allowed the highest deep completion rate and the fourth-most deep passing yards in the NFL. Pickens could be headed for another solid fantasy day. He’s a WR3 that will run about 86% of his routes against Humphrey and Stephens.

BAL WRs: With Huntley handcuffing this passing attack, the wide receiver options in this passing attack are stay-aways in the most important week in the fantasy season. Since Week 11, the Steelers have allowed wide receivers the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: After a few down weeks and declining snaps, Freiermuth proved he was healthy last week, soaking up a 22.2% target share with 1.89 yards per route run and an 87.5% route run rate. Freiermuth is the TE9 in fantasy with a 19.5% target share, the third-most deep targets, and the 13th-most red zone targets. He ranks sixth in yards per route run and ninth in yards after the catch. Freiermuth hauled in a touchdown on a limited snap count with 33 receiving yards the last time he played Baltimore (TE6). Freiermuth is a TE1.

Mark Andrews: With Huntley tossing him passes, Andrews has a 29.5% target share (six targets per game), 25.9% air yard share, and 1.33 yards per route run. Andrews has had disappointing fantasy weeks as the TE23, TE24, and TE19. The usage and target volume remains for him to be ranked as a TE1, but the results have been frightening. If you have a sexy streaming option, consider them over Andrews. Andrews is a borderline TE1. Since Week 11, Pittsburgh has been 22nd in catch rate, 20th in receiving yards per game, and 12th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

DAL vs. TEN | ARI vs. ATL | CHI vs. DET | DEN vs. KC | MIA vs. NE | IND vs. NYG | NO vs. PHI | CAR vs. TB | CLE vs. WAS | JAC vs. HOU | SF vs. LV | NYJ vs. SEA | MIN vs. GB | LAR vs. LAC | PIT vs. BAL | BUF vs. CIN

Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• BUF -1, O/U 49.5
• Bills vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 12, the Bills are seventh in neutral pace and 15th in neutral passing rate. The drop in passing rate is tied to Allen’s health.
• Over the same period, Cincinnati has been 15th in neutral pace and 12th in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Allen remains the QB2 in fantasy, but his recent passing production has taken a dive. Since Week 12, he’s 11th in PFF passing grade, 21st in yards per attempt, first in big-time throw rate, and 18th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 11, he has only one 300-yard passing week. His rushing production has helped him post four top-ten fantasy weeks in his last five games. Since Week 11, the Bengals have been 19th in fantasy points per game, 13th in success rate per drop back, and 21st in EPA per dropback. Allen is a weekly top-three fantasy option regardless of matchup.

Joe Burrow: Joe Cool is an elite fantasy quarterback on the warpath. Since Week 9, he’s first in PFF passing grade, third in big-time throws, and tenth in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). He is the QB4 in fantasy with top-three fantasy weeks in three of his last six games. Burrow remains a top-flight fantasy option this week. Since Week 11, Buffalo has been 12th in success rate per dropback, 15th in passing yards per game, 21st in EPA per drop back, and 16th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Week 16

Devin Singletary: Singletary remains the leader of this backfield. He’s played at least 58% of the snaps in the last two games, averaging 15 touches and 97.5 yards. He logged his first 100 rushing day of the season last week. Singletary is 22nd in opportunity share, 24th in juke rate, 20th in evaded tackles, and 11th in breakaway run rate. Singletary is an RB3. Since Week 11, the Bengals have been 13th in rushing success rate, fourth in rushing yards per game, sixth in EPA per rush, and fourth in explosive run rate allowed.

James Cook: Cook remains an RB4/dart throw flex. Since Week 13, he’s averaged 11.5 touches and 66.8 total yards while playing 41-43% of the snaps in three of four games. Cook remains one of the most explosive rushers in the game. He’s 11th in juke rate, first in breakaway run rate, and 15th in yards created per touch. Cook’s volatile weekly workload makes it tough to rank him any higher.

Joe Mixon: Over the last three games, Mixon hasn’t played more than 64% of the snaps averaging 18.4 touches and 89.4 total yards. He’s still the clear lead back, handing 57% of the red zone carries. He’s only managed a 39% route run rate, but when he’s out there, the team has heavily involved him through the air with a 32% target per route run rate and 14.2% target share. Since Week 11, Buffalo has been 12th in rushing success rate, eighth in rushing yards per game, and 18th in explosive run rate allowed. Mixon is a low-end RB1/high-end RB2.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: Play Diggs. That is all. He’s the WR5 in fantasy with a 28.0% target share (11th) and a 32.6% air yard share (16th). He’s 13th in deep targets, and fourth in red zone looks. He’s a weekly WR1 tied for eighth in open rate with CeeDee Lamb.

Gabriel Davis: Davis is a WR3. He’s the WR34 in fantasy points per game with a 17.3% target share and 27.1% air-yard share. He’s 11th in deep targets and fifth in aDOT. He’s only managed two WR3 weeks across his last six games played. The Bengals are 12th in deep ball completion rate allowed, so Davis will have to rely upon his newfound red zone role this week. He has seven red zone targets over his last four games.

Isiah McKenzie: More to come once I have a practice report on McKenzie. Check back Friday.

Ja’Marr Chase: Chase is the WR4 in fantasy with a 29% target share (seventh-best) and 36.9% air-yard share (ninth-best). He has 13 deep targets in 11 games played. He’s also second among wide receivers with 24 red zone targets which are absurd considering the time he missed this season.  Chase could get shadow coverage from Tre’Davious White. White has shadowed twice since Week 14, following Jaylen Waddle and Garrett Wilson on 60-80% of their routes. Neither wide receiver scored a touchdown in White’s coverage or surpassed 51 receiving yards. If White doesn’t shadow Chase, he’ll run about 76% of his routes against White (52% catch rate, 86.4 passer rating) and Dane Jackson (61.6% catch rate, 86.3 passer rating). Chase is a matchup-proof WR1 like Justin Jefferson.

Tee Higgins: With Chase back, Higgins has had a 19.2% target share (7.7 targets per game), a 40% end zone target share, and a 26.5% air yard share. Higgins is the WR16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in yards per route run and 22nd in open rate. He’s a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. Higgins will run about 80% of his routes against White and Jackson.

Tyler Boyd: Boyd could be the key chess piece for Cincinnati this week. Despite ranking 19th in open rate, he’s not been a high-volume receiver, with Chase and Higgins soaking up a ton of volume. Boyd is the WR46 in fantasy points per game with a 13.5% target share and 17.7% air yard share. These aren’t sexy numbers, but Boyd draws the easiest corner matchup on the board against Buffalo this week. He’ll run about 83% of his routes against Taron Johnson (72.7% catch rate, 108.7 passer rating). Boyd is a WR4 that could blow expectations out of the water this week.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox: Knox has come on strong recently with TE1 weeks (TE5, TE5, TE3, TE9) in four of his last six games. Since Week 11, he has had a 16.1% target share (five targets per game), a 78,1% route run rate, and 1.51 yards per route run. Since Week 11, Cincinnati has been 17th in catch rate, 26th in receiving yards per game, and 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Knox is a TE1.

Hayden Hurst: Hurst has practiced in full this week, so it looks like he’ll be back for Week 17. Hurst has a 14.5% target share and ranks 22nd in red zone targets among tight ends. He’s a TE2 this week, taking on a stout Bills’ pass defense against tight ends. Buffalo is sixth in receiving yards, fourth in fantasy points, and hasn’t allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end this season.

*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of FantasyPros, ESPN analytics, PFF, SharpFootball Stats, Football Outsiders, FTN, 4for4, Rotoviz, RBdsm.com, The Edge from the 33rd Team, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*

DAL vs. TEN | ARI vs. ATL | CHI vs. DET | DEN vs. KC | MIA vs. NE | IND vs. NYG | NO vs. PHI | CAR vs. TB | CLE vs. WAS | JAC vs. HOU | SF vs. LV | NYJ vs. SEA | MIN vs. GB | LAR vs. LAC | PIT vs. BAL | BUF vs. CIN