The Primer: Week 16 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins

• MIA -4.5, O/U 49.5
• Packers vs. Dolphins Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, Miami has been 18th in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.
• In their last seven games, Green Bay has slowed to 31st in neutral pace and dipped to 21st in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers has looked off all season as the QB20 in fantasy. I don’t expect that to change this week. He is 25th in yards per attempt, 16th in accuracy rating, and 21st in true completion rate. The Dolphins’ pass defense has hit its stride, ranking 11th in success rate per dropback, 12th in EPA per drop back, and tenth in explosive pass rate allowed since Week 10. Rodgers is a QB2.

Tua Tagovailoa: Tagovailoa has hit a wall recently, with the Dolphins’ offense having to adjust to how teams are defending them. Since Week 12, Tagovailoa has been the QB18, QB17, QB17, and QB13 in fantasy. Over his last four games, he’s 33rd in PFF passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, ninth in turnover-worthy plays, and 39th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Since Week 10, Green Bay has been ninth in success rate per dropback, 18th in EPA per dropback, 16th in passing yards per game, and 19th in explosive pass rate allowed. Tagovailoa is a borderline QB1.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones played a few less snaps (56%) last week, but he looked like his usual explosive self with 21 touches and 126 total yards. Jones is the RB11 in fantasy and an RB1 this week. He is ninth in weighted opportunities, 15th in red zone touches, and 17th in fantasy points per opportunity. Jones hasn’t shown any falloff in his efficiency metrics, ranking fifth in evaded tackles, 15th in juke rate, and 12th in breakaway runs. Since Week 10, Miami has been 15th in rushing success rate, 20th in EPA per rush, and 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. They’ve bled out production in the passing game to backs surrendering the most receptions per game and second-most receiving yards per game over their last five contests.

A.J. Dillon: Dillon has seen his workload trend upward since Week 12, averaging 15.3 touches and 92.6 total yards. He’s finally starting to fulfill the hope the fantasy community had for him this season with RB13, RB6, and RB9 finishes in his last three games. Dillon is 12th in juke rate, 13th in evaded tackles, and 26th in yards created. He’s an RB2 this week.

Raheem Mostert: As Miami’s lead back in each of the last two games, he’s played at least 73% of the snaps averaging 15 touches and 100 total yards. Since Week 8, Mostert has been one of the best rushers in the NFL, ranking fifth in yards after contact per attempt and 14th in runs of ten-plus yards. Since Week 10, Green Bay has remained dreadful at stopping the run, ranking 32nd in rushing success rate, 29th in rushing yards per game, and 29th in explosive run rate allowed. Mostert is a strong RB2 with RB1 upside this week.

Jeff Wilson: Wilson was limited all week in practice with his hip injury. He has been listed as questionable. Wilson has been awesome this season when healthy, ranking eighth in yards per touch, fourth in breakaway run rate, and 12th in true yards per carry. The big questions this week surround his health and possible workload. Even in a smash matchup, Wilson is only an RB4 or desperation flex play, as he could be an emergency back only.

Wide Receivers

Christian Watson: It had to happen at some time. Watson finally played a game that he didn’t score a touchdown, but it’s not like he didn’t have chances to keep the streak alive. He had three red zone targets and miscommunications with Rodgers that led to the misfires. Since Week 10, he has led the Packers with a 23.4% target share, 50% end zone target share, 42.6% air yard share, and 2.87 yards per route run. Watson is a WR2 that will run about 66% of his routes against Xavien Howard (since Week 10: 65.2% catch rate, 76.9 passer rating) and Kader Kohou (67.4% catch rate, 87.8 passer rating).

Allen Lazard: Since Watson’s ascension, Lazard has taken a backseat with an 18.4% target share (40 receiving yards per game), 8.3% end zone target share, 26.1% air yard share, and 1.49 yards per route run. Lazard has finished as a WR3 in two of his last four games. Lazard is a WR3 that will run about 57% of his routes against Howard and Kohou.

Romeo Doubs: In his first game back, Doubs only saw a 30.3% route run rate as he split time with Randall Cobb. This isn’t enough work to consider him a viable fantasy wide receiver.

Tyreek Hill: Hill is a fantasy monster. He’s the WR3 in fantasy with a 33.8% target share (first), 36.4% target per route run rate (first), and 38.9% air yard share (sixth). He’s first in deep targets, second in YAC and fifth in touchdowns. Despite Tagovailoa’s struggles recently, he’s still been the WR4, WR4, and WR8 in fantasy in his last three games. Hill is a weekly top-five fantasy wide receiver.

Jaylen Waddle: Waddle had a nice bounce-back effort last week with 114 receiving yards and a score as the WR10. That was his first WR1 week since Week 9 against the Bears. Waddle is the WR12 in fantasy with a 22.2% target share, 28.1% air yard share, and 17 deep targets (21st). He’s been a YAC threat every time he touches the ball, as he’s ninth in YAC. Waddle is a WR2.

Tight Ends

Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is a matchup-based streaming option this week. Tonyan hasn’t been a TE1 since Week 6 against the Jets. He has a 12.9% target share (21st) and only seven red zone targets (19th) while ranking 23rd in yards per route run. With all of these lackluster stats, why am I recommending Tonyan as a streamer this week? Because Miami has been horrendous against tight ends. The Dolphins are 30th in fantasy points per game, 31st in catch rate, and 29th in receiving yards per game against tight ends.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams

• DEN -2, O/U 36.5
• Broncos vs. Rams Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Broncos are tenth in neutral pace and 13th in neutral passing rate this season.
• With Mayfield under center, the Rams are seventh in neutral pace and eighth in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson: Wilson’s blow-up game in Week 14 was only his second QB1 week of the season. Since Week 8, he’s 18th in PFF passing grade, tenth in adjusted completion rate, sixth in big-time throw rate, and 19th in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). Maybe there is some small sliver of hope for Wilson, considering how he’s played over his last six games under center. This week’s matchup with the Rams could allow him an avenue to stack two solid starts in a row. Since Week 10, the Rams have been 31st in success rate per dropback, 29th in EPA per dropback, 30th in yards per attempt, and 20th in explosive pass rate allowed. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but Wilson is a strong QB2 this week.

Baker Mayfield: In fantasy, Mayfield has been the QB16 and QB29 in his two starts with the Rams. Since Week 14, he’s 29th in PFF passing grade, 24th in yards per attempt, and 29th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 20 dropbacks). Mayfield is a bottom-of-the-barrel QB2. Since Week 10, the Broncos are second in success rate per dropback, ninth in EPA per drop back, and ninth in EPA per play.

Running Backs

Latavius Murray: Murray (foot) managed two limited practices this week (DNP Thursday), which earned him a questionable tag. Murray has averaged 19 touches and 78 total yards since Week 13. Murray has been a volume play all year, producing some good stat lines in cakewalk matchups. He is still just 47th in juke rate, 45th in evaded tackles, and 49th in breakaway run rate. Murray is an RB3. Since Week 10, the Rams have been 15th in rushing yards per game, 22nd in EPA per rush, and 20th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.

Marlon Mack: Over the last two games, Mack has been playing the complementary “Mike Boone” role averaging seven touches and 70 total yards (29-32% of the snaps). Mack has been quite good with his limited volume, with 4.67 yards after contact per attempt and a 93.3 PFF elusive rating. Mack is an RB4 with some upside if Murray isn’t 100%, as he could take on more work this week.

Cam Akers: Akers has played at least 72% of the snaps in two of his last three games averaging 15.4 touches and 67.7 total yards. In that three-game sample, he’s finished as the RB8, RB25, and RB20 in fantasy. Since Week 11, Akers has been offering flashes of his preinjury form, ranking 22nd in yards after contact per attempt, fifth in missed tackles forced, and seventh in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 20 carries). Since Week 10, Denver has been 12th in rushing success rate, eighth in rushing yards per game, and tenth in explosive run rate allowed. Akers is an RB3.

Wide Receivers

Jerry Jeudy: In the last four games, Jeudy has played at least 74% of the snaps; he has a 25% target share (8.8 targets), 50% end zone target share, 24.4% air yard share, and 2.05 yards per route run. Jeudy finished those weeks as the WR16, WR13, WR1, and WR24. Jeudy is 14th in open rate among 81 qualifying wide receivers. Jeudy is a WR2 that will run about 81% of his routes on the perimeter against Jalen Ramsey (66.2% catch rate, 120.3 passer rating) and Troy Hill (72.1% catch rate, 97.1 passer rating). Since Week 12, Ramsey and Hill have operated in zone coverage on 59-63% of their snaps. Since Week 7, Jeudy has seen 62.5% of his target volume against zone, ranking 13th in yards per route run against the coverage (minimum ten zone targets).

Courtland Sutton: Sutton was limited in practice (hamstring) all week and has been listed as questionable. Sutton dipped to the WR45 in fantasy this season despite being the WR27 in expected fantasy points. Some of this rests at the feet of Sutton but also Russell Wilson and the offense as a whole. Sutton has a 23.4% target share and 27.6% air yard share and ranks 16th in deep targets. Sutton was a WR3 in each of his last three full games played. If Sutton is active, he’ll run about 87% of his routes against Ramsey and Hill as a WR3/4.

Kendall Hinton: Hinton has been ruled out.

Tutu Atwell: With Mayfield under center, Atwell has a 24.5% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, 41% air yard share, 74.2% route run rate, and 1.22 yards per route run. Atwell has a red zone target in each of his last two games with WR43 and WR94 fantasy finishes. Atwell is a WR5 that will run about 57% of his routes against K’Waun Williams (65.1% catch rate, 68.5 passer rating).

Van Jefferson: Jefferson has an 11.3% target share averaging 38 receiving yards with 1.21 yards per route run, with Mayfield tossing him passes. After he was held out of the end zone last week, he concluded the week as WR64. Jefferson is a WR6/desperation flex that will run about 71% of his routes against Patrick Surtain (58.5% catch rate, 78.6 passer rating) and Dmarri Mathis (70.3% catch rate, 93.0 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich has been a roller coaster ride all season. He has four weeks as a TE1 in fantasy while also managing three games outside the top 30 fantasy tight ends. He has garnered a 16.5% target share while ranking seventh in route participation, second in deep targets, and 20th in yards per route run. Dulcich has rolled up three weeks with at least 50 receiving yards due to his downfield role, but only one red zone target this year helps to explain why he has only one receiving touchdown. Since Week 8, Los Angeles is 28th in fantasy points per game, 26th in receiving yards per game, and 26th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Dulcich is a low-end TE1.

Tyler Higbee: Since Stafford has been sidelined, Higbee hasn’t seen more than five targets or mustered more than 27 receiving yards in any game. He scored his first touchdown of the season last week, but I wouldn’t use that as a reason to feel overly optimistic about his Week 16 outlook. Since Week 8, Denver is 22nd in fantasy points per game, 30th in receiving yards per game, and 29th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Higbee is a low-end matchup-based streamer/TE2.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals

• TB -6.5, O/U 41
• Buccaneers vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, Tampa Bay has been first in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: Since Week 10, Brady has managed two QB1 games, ranking 13th in PFF passing grade, 12th in passing yards, ninth in passing touchdowns, and 11th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). While his numbers have improved, he’s not without warts, as he also ranks second in interceptions and fourth in turnover-worthy play rate. Since Week 10, Arizona has been 24th in success rate per dropback, 13th in passing yards per game, and eighth in yards per attempt. Brady is a borderline QB1.

Trace McSorley: McSorley draws the start this week. He’s looked rough in limited action this year with a 51.7% completion rate and 5.7 yards per attempt with his 29 passing attempts. McSorley has rushing upside with his 4.5 speed, as he has flashed with five carries this season and 34 rushing yards. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has been an easier draw as a pass defense, ranking 29th in success rate per dropback, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 18th in explosive pass rate allowed. McSorley is a QB2.

Running Backs

Week 15

Leonard Fournette: Since Week 13, Fournette has averaged 13.3 touches and 77 total yards with White mixing in. Fournette has played 47-60% of snaps weekly. Last week he garnered most of the passing work while barely edging out White on early downs and splitting red zone work. Fournette is the RB13 in fantasy points per game, as he’s been a volume RB2 for most of the season. He ranks 30th in juke rate, 20th in evaded tackles, and 28th in yards created per touch. Since Week 10, the Cardinals have been 19th in rushing success rate, 30th in EPA per rush, and 14th in explosive run rate allowed. Where they have really been gashed is in the passing game. Over that same period, they are 30th in receptions per game and 31st in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. Fournette is an RB2/3 this week. The scale could easily tip in either direction, depending on who gets into the end zone and sees the passing game work.

Rachaad White: Over his last three games, White has averaged 15 touches and 63 total yards playing 39-53% of the snaps. He has at least five targets and 20 receiving yards in two of his last three weeks. White’s efficiency on the ground has been similarly poor as Fournette’s. He’s 40th in juke rate, 34th in yards created, and 40th in evaded tackles. White is an RB3 with RB2 upside.

James Conner: Conner has played at least 91% of snaps in four of his last five games averaging 21.6 touches and 97 total yards. Since Week 10, he’s finished no lower than RB16 (RB3, RB16, RB4, RB5, RB12). Conner is a weekly volume-based RB1. He’s 16th in juke rate, 15th in evaded tackles, and 18th in yards created. Since Week 10, Tampa Bay has been 15th in EPA per rush, 12th in rushing yards per game, and 21st in explosive run rate allowed.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: Evans is the WR28 in fantasy with a 19.3% target share (8.3 targets per game), 32.8% air yard share (16th), and 1.81 yards per route run (40th). He is third in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets, but Brady has only looked his way inside the 20 twice over the last five games. This doesn’t set up as an Evans game since Arizona is fourth in deep ball completion rate allowed. Evans is a low-end WR2/WR3 that will run about 74% of his routes against Jace Whitaker (89.5% catch rate, 111.0 passer rating) and Christian Matthew (66.7% catch rate, 124.8 passer rating).

Chris Godwin: Godwin is the WR14 in fantasy with a 22% target share, 25.4% target per route run rate (24th), and 16.9% air yard share. His aDot (5.7) has been pitiful, which has forced him to make everything happen after the catch (17th in YAC). Godwin should eat against a secondary that’s allowed the most YAC and the fifth-most missed tackles. Godwin is a WR1 that will run about 74% of his routes against Isaiah Simmons (85.5% catch rate, 95.5 passer rating).

Russell Gage: Gage saw a 28.6% target share last week with three end-zone targets. He had a 68.9% route run rate with 1.9 yards per route run. While this was a fantastic showing by Gage, it’s hard to trust him with Julio Jones listed as questionable and possible to play. Gage only had a 33.9% route run rate and 3.9% target share in Week 14, with Jones taking the lead. They likely share the WR3 role for the Bucs this week, which crushes each of their floors and ceilings. Avoid Jones and Gage this week.

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins felt the drop-off in quarterback play last week. Despite 11 targets, he finished as the WR32 with seven grabs and 60 receiving yards. This season, Hopkins has at least 11 targets in six of his eight games. He has a 30.2% target share (fifth), 30.6% target per route run rate (seventh), and 41.3% air yard share (second-best). He’s 11th in yards per route run and has ten deep targets in eight games. Hopkins is a volume-based WR2 until McCoy makes it back.

Marquise Brown: Brown has felt a similar sting since returning to the huddle. He has eight targets in each of his last three games (23.1% target share), 50% end zone target share, and 28.7% air yard share. Despite these beautiful usage numbers, he has finished as the WR43, WR55, and WR63, failing to cross the 50-receiving-yard threshold in any game. Brown is a WR3/4 until McCoy returns.

Tight Ends

TB TEs: Over the last two weeks, this position has been a crap shoot for Tampa Bay. Neither Cameron Brate nor Cade Otton has seen higher than a 9.0% target share or a 50% route run rate. The matchup is wonderful this week against arguably the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends, but it’s a coin flip over who to play when the real answer could be neither.

Trey McBride: McBride has a 14.3% target share and 64.5% route run rate over the last two weeks, with 1.38 yards per route run. These metrics are encouraging, but with McSorley under center this week, McBride is just another TE2 that’s not worth starting. Tampa Bay is 26th in fantasy points per game and 19th in receiving yards per game against tight ends. I worry about McSorley’s ability to support Hopkins, much less the third or fourth option in the passing attack like McBride.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts

• LAC -4, O/U 46.5
• Chargers vs. Colts Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Chargers are second in neutral pace and first in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back in the lineup the last two games, Herbert has been eighth in PFF passing grade, 12th in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 25 dropbacks). Since Week 10, Indy has been 19th in success rate per dropback, 13th in EPA per drop back, and 24th in passing yards per game. Herbert is a QB1.

Nick Foles: The last time we had an extended look at Foles, he was the QB32 in fantasy points per game in 2020. That season, he made seven starts ranking 28th in PFF passing grade, 43rd in yards per attempt and 34th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Unlike a bottle of fine wine or bourbon, I doubt time has made Foles better. Since Week 10, Los Angeles has been eighth in success rate per dropback, 16th in EPA per drop back, and 29th in explosive pass rate allowed. While these numbers aren’t frightening, that still doesn’t mean Foles should be rolled out in anything more than the deepest Superflex or 2QB leagues.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: Ekeler is the RB1 in fantasy, ranking first in weighted opportunities, first in red zone touches, and 12th in opportunity share. He leads all running backs in receiving yards, receptions, and touchdowns and is fourth in fantasy points per opportunity. He’s 11th in evaded tackles, and 14th in breakaway runs. The Colts remain a run funnel. Since Week 10, they are 23rd in rushing success rate, 26th in EPA per rush, and 23rd in rushing yards per game. Ekeler is an elite RB1.

Week 15

Zack Moss: Last week Moss played 67% of the snaps rolling up 24 carries for 81 rushing yards in relief of Jonathan Taylor. The Colts were trying to salt away the clock last week, and while that didn’t work, Moss emerged as the clear early down back while also leading the running backs in routes and red zone opportunities. Moss hasn’t been an impressive rusher, ranking 71st out of 77 qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway rate, and 43rd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Moss is an RB3 with RB2 upside if he gets 15-20 touches and gets into the end zone. Since Week 10, the Chargers have been 28th in rushing success rate, 24th in EPA per rush, 25th in rushing yards per game, and 23rd in explosive run rate allowed. Jordan Wilkins could get called up this week, but I still expect Moss to lead the backfield in touches.

Deon Jackson: Jackson worked as Moss’s 1B last week, playing 32% of the snaps with 14 touches and 56 total yards. He also factored into the red zone. As bad as Moss’s efficiency has been, Jackson’s hasn’t been any better. He’s ranked 70th in yards after contact per attempt, 54th in breakaway rate, and 69th in PFF’s elusive rating. Jackson is an RB3.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: Since Week 11, Allen has had a 25% target share, 42.9% end zone target share, 35.1% air yard share, and 1.99 yards per route run. He’s been a top 24 fantasy wideout in each of the last four games (WR22, WR12, WR10, WR19) while drawing nine red zone targets and scoring two touchdowns. Allen is a WR1 that will run about 65% of his routes against Julian Blackmon (73.3% catch rate, 127.1 passer rating).

Mike Williams: Over the last two games, Williams has a 16.5% target share, 40% end zone target share, and 38% air-yard share (14.4 aDOT) as the team’s downfield threat. He has been targeted on 17% of his routes with a 2.29 yards per route run. Williams is a WR2 that will run about 85% of his routes against Stephon Gilmore (61.5% catch rate, 80.0 passer rating) and Isaiah Rodgers (70.8% catch rate, 110.6 passer rating).

Josh Palmer: With Williams and Allen back, Palmer has seen his target share dip to 11.8% while averaging 44.5 receiving yards (1.25 yards per route run) as he’s been targeted on only 14% of his routes. Palmer is a WR4.

Michael Pittman: Pittman is the WR21 in fantasy with a 26.2% target share (15th) and 27.4% air yard share (34th). He has been watered down to a short-area possession receiver this season with a 6.5 aDOT (96th). He has only three deep targets and nine red-zone looks. Pittman is a volume-based WR3 that will run about 72% of his routes against Michael Davis (52.5% catch rate, 82.1 passer rating) and Asante Samuel Jr. (60.2% catch rate, 102.9 passer rating).

Parris Campbell: Campbell hasn’t logged at least 50 receiving yards since Week 11. There’s no telling who Foles will prefer with the quarterback change in this passing attack. The Chargers have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Slot corner Bryce Callahan (73.8% catch rate, 92.2 passer rating) has arguably been their best corner this season. Campbell is a WR5.

Alec Pierce: The Chargers are 16th in deep ball completion rate and ninth in deep passing yards. Pierce has operated as the team’s deep threat. Since Week 11, he has had a 16.9% target share and 77.1% route run rate with 0.97 yards per route run. Pierce is a WR5/6.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: With Allen and Williams back, Everett has had a 16.5% target share, a 20% end zone target share, and a 63.3% route run rate. He is the TE10 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in red zone targets (three in his last two games). Everett is a TE1 facing an Indy defense that’s 26th in DVOA and 22nd in catch rate against tight ends.

BUF vs. CHI | NO vs. CLE | HOU vs. TEN | SEA vs. KC | NYG vs. MIN | CIN vs. NE | DET vs. CAR | ATL vs. BAL | WAS vs. SF | PHI vs. DAL | LV vs. PIT | GB vs. MIA | DEN vs. LAR | TB vs. ARI | LAC vs. IND

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets

• NYJ -1, O/U 38.5
• Jaguars vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• New York let Wilson rip it last week as they continued with a similar offensive approach they leaned into with Mike White. Last week the Jets were 12th in neutral pace and ninth in neutral passing rate.
• Since Week 9, Jacksonville has been fifth in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been en Fuego since Week 9. He’s first in PFF passing grade, second in passing touchdowns, third in big-time throws and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Over his last six games, Lawrence is the QB5 in fantasy. He has a tough test this week against a stout Jets pass defense. New York is third in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdown rate, and eighth in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Lawrence is a low-end QB1.

Zach Wilson: Wilson finished as the QB9 in his first game back under center despite objectively playing terrible football. Last week he was 19th in PFF passing grade, fourth in turnover-worthy plays, and 31st in adjusted completion rate, with only Mac Jones and Nathan Peterman finishing lower than Wilson. Despite still struggling as an NFL quarterback, he could post another top 12 week against a Jaguars pass defense that’s been one of the worst in the league. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has been 32nd in success rate per dropback and EPA per dropback. This defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game, fourth-most passing yards, and fourth-most passing touchdowns this season. Wilson is a scary QB2 that could Blake Bortles his way to a QB1 week.

Running Backs

Travis Etienne: After an injury hiccup and a down four-game stretch, Etienne bounced back last week against Dallas with 21 touches, 127 total yards, and an RB22 finish. Etienne has dipped to 35th in yards after contact per attempt, but he is still eighth in missed tackles forced, tenth in breakaway rate, and 24th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). The Jets are no cakewalk, but that doesn’t mean Etienne can’t walk away from Week 16 with a productive week as an RB2. Since Week 10, New York has been fifth in EPA per rush and second in rushing success rate, but they are also 14th in rushing yards per game and 19th in explosive run rate allowed. Etienne can break off a long run or two, and if he gets into the end zone, he’s posting a strong week. New York is also 22nd in yards per reception allowed to running backs over their last five games, so Etienne also has a solid runway to take a check down for a big gain.

Week 15

Zonovan Knight: Over the last two weeks as a platoon running back with Carter, Knight has averaged 16 touches and 50 total yards. Last week he swallowed up the early down work while ceding to Carter in the red zone and on passing downs. Knight has still been effective with his carries ranking 19th in yards after contact per attempt, 26th in breakaway rate, and first in PFF elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Knight is a high-end RB3 who could easily be an RB2 this week against a soft Jacksonville run defense. Since Week 10, Jacksonville has been 26th in rushing success rate, 24th in rushing yards per game, and 22nd in explosive run rate.

Michael Carter: Carter has been the passing down compliment to Knight over the last two weeks, averaging 6.5 touches and 25.5 total yards. Carter has only two red zone opportunities over the last two games, so with the limited volume and red zone equity, he’s nothing more than a touchdown or bust RB4. Carter is 14th in breakaway run rate, but he’s also 32nd in juke rate and 36th in evaded tackles. If he doesn’t fly into the endzone or find daylight for a long run, you’ll be sorry you rolled him out as your flex for the week.

Wide Receivers

Christian Kirk: Kirk has a 23.7% target share, 27.8% end zone target share, and 28.7% air yard share. Kirk is 21st in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Kirk hasn’t scored since Week 10 despite seeing at least seven targets in each of his last four games and surpassing 90 receiving yards in two. Zay Jones has been grabbing headlines over the last few games, but the volume should flow back in Kirk’s direction this week. Kirk will run about 76% of his routes against Michael Carter (68.2% catch rate, 77.5 passer rating) as a WR2/3.

Zay Jones: After last week’s insane game, Zay Jones has risen to WR21 in fantasy points per game. Jones has a 22.8% target share, 27.8% end zone target share (tied with Kirk), and 26% air yard share. Jones has 1.73 yards per route run and a 24% target per route run rate. Jones is ninth in red zone targets among wide receivers. Jones faces an uphill battle this week as a WR3 while running about 67% of his routes against D.J. Reed (54.7% catch rate, 73.5 passer rating) and Sauce Gardner (44.1% catch rate, 48.8 passer rating).

Marvin Jones: Jones has touchdowns in two of his last four games that have saved his days, but he hasn’t finished a game with at least 50 receiving yards since Week 7. He’s only mustered a 13.6% target share and 1.13 yards per route this season. Jones is a must-sit against this talented outside corner duo.

Garrett Wilson: Wilson is the WR27 in fantasy with a 23.9% target share, 27.3% end zone target share, and 32.7% air yard share since Week 8. Wilson has been a top-30 wide receiver in six of his last seven games, with three WR1 outings. Wilson is ninth in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Wilson is a WR2 that will run about 58% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (60.6% catch rate, 91.7 passer rating) and Darious Williams (58.0% catch rate, 89.0 passer rating).

Elijah Moore: Over the last two games, Moore has a 22.1% target share, 20.8% air yard share, and 88.9% route run rate. Since Week 13, he has had four deep and red zone targets. Moore is a WR3/4 that will run about 66% of his routes against Tre Herndon (67.7% catch rate, 129.6 passer rating).

Corey Davis: Davis has been cleared from concussion protocol and will return this week. In the eight games where he has played at least 65% of the snaps this season, he has had a 15.3% target share, 26.5% air yard share, 13.5 aDOT, and 1.77 yards per route run. He’s been the team’s field stretcher when healthy. With possible sustained winds between 15-20 mph and gusts up to possibly 35mpg, this isn’t a role to value highly with Wilson’s inaccurate arm chucking him targets. Davis is a WR4/5.

Tight Ends

Evan Engram: Engram has been otherworldly over the last two games with a 29.8% target share, 25% end zone target share, and 3.03 yards per route run. He’s the TE8 for the season with top-six tight end finishes (TE4, TE1, TE6) in each of the last three games. Since Week 13, Engram has had five red zone targets and three receiving touchdowns. He has a tough matchup this week against New York, who is tenth in DVOA, 20th in receiving yards, and has allowed only two receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season. Engram is a TE1 based on volume alone.

Tyler Conklin: With Wilson under center, Conklin has a 15% target share, 30.8% end zone target share, and 56.8% route run rate. Conklin is a matchup-based streaming option this week. Jacksonville is 31st in DVOA, 23rd in catch rate, 29th in receiving yards, and 30th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.