Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Over their last seven games, the Titans are 21st in neutral pace and have the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
- The Chargers continue to make sweet pace and passing rate music. Since Week 8, they have been third in neutral pace and leading the NFL in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Ryan Tannehill: Since his return in Week 10, Tannehill is 11th in PFF passing grade, fifth in yards per attempt, fifth in passing yards, and 11th in passing touchdowns (minimum 50 dropbacks). Tannehill has been a QB1 in three of his last five games. Since Week 10, Los Angeles is 12th in success rate per dropback, 22nd in EPA per dropback, 17th in passing yards per game, and 28th in explosive pass rate allowed. Tannehill is a QB2 with top-12 upside if this game shoots out.
Justin Herbert: Since Week 11, with Keenan Allen and other weapons back in the lineup, Herbert has been revitalized. He’s ninth in adjusted completion rate, sixth in big-time throws, and first in passing yards. In fantasy, Herbert has finished as the QB9, QB3, QB9, and QB10. Herbert is a franchise quarterback that elevates the offense around him despite some assertions by talking heads that “he’s a social media quarterback.” He will shred a Titans’ secondary that’s 20th in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per dropback, 31st in passing yards per game, and 29th in explosive pass rate allowed since Week 10. Herbert is a top shelf QB1.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry: Henry is the RB4 in fantasy averaging 23.2 touches and 116.8 total yards. Henry is second in opportunity share, fifth in weighted opportunities, third in red zone touches, and fifth in total touchdowns. He is eighth in evaded tackles, fifth in breakaway runs, and 21st in yards created per touch. Henry logged his sixth 100-yard rushing outing of the season last week. Since Week 10, the Chargers are 26th in rushing success rate, 27th in rushing yards per game, and 24th in EPA per rush. The Bolts have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. Henry is a top-five running back play.
Austin Ekeler: Ekeler remains the RB1 in fantasy points per game with his 19 touches and 96.7 total yards per game. Ekeler is 11th in opportunity share, first in weighed opportunity, first in red zone touches, and fourth in fantasy points per opportunity. Ekeler is 12th in evaded tackles, 17th in breakaway runs, and fifth in yards created per touch. Ekeler will need every bit of his efficiency and explosiveness against this Titans’ run defense. Since Week 10, they are fifth in rushing success rate, third in rushing yards per game, fifth in EPA per rush, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. Tennessee has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs while giving up production to backs in the passing game. The Titans have allowed the most receptions per game and ninth-most receiving yards per game to running backs. Ekeler is a matchup-proof RB1.
Wide Receivers
Treylon Burks: Burks has been ruled out.
Robert Woods: Woods is toast. Even with some favorable matchups on the schedule since Week 5, he has zero touchdowns and only one game with more than 50 receiving yards to show for it. Despite seven targets in three of his last five games, he has only one top-30 wide receiver finish. Woods is a WR5/6 that should grace the waiver wire, not your lineup.
Keenan Allen: Since Week 12 as a full-time piece of this offense again, Allen has a 25% target share averaging 81 receiving yards with a 45.5% end zone target share. In those three games, he has a 90% route run rate, a 24% target per route run rate, and 1.64 yards per route run. He’s finished as the WR22, WR12, and WR10 in weekly scoring. Allen has eight red zone targets and two touchdowns over his last three games. Allen is a WR1 that will run about 63% of his routes against Amani Hooker (76% catch rate, 77.1 passer rating).
Mike Williams: In his first game back, Williams saw a 12.8% target share (six targets), 25% end zone target share, and 35.8% air yard share (13.2 aDOT). He managed a 74.5% route run rate and 2.83 yards per route run. Williams led the team with two deep targets last week. The Titans have struggled to defend downfield passing all year. They have yielded the third-highest deep completion rate, the most deep passing yards, and the most deep passing touchdowns in the NFL. Williams is a WR2 with WR1 upside. Williams will run about 85% of his routes against Roger McCreary (72.6% catch rate, 116.8 passer rating) and Terrance Mitchell (65.2% catch rate, 104.1 passer rating).
Josh Palmer: Last week with Allen and Williams back in the huddle, Palmer faded into the background with a 10.6% target share, 33.3% air yard share (15.4 aDOT), 0.89 yards per route run, and 11% target per route run rate. He did see one end-zone target. Over the last three weeks, with Allen returning to his alpha role, Palmer has been the WR43, WR29, and WR45 in fantasy scoring. Palmer is a WR3/4 that will run about 70% of his routes against McCreary and Mitchell.
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo: Since Week 13, Okonkwo has an 18.8% target share averaging 56.5 receiving yards with 2.57 yards per route run and a 27% target per route run rate. That’s the good news. Now, here comes the bad. He mustered only a 55.7% route run rate and 22 routes per game, which are behind Austin Hooper‘s numbers (59.5%, 23.5). Okonkwo is a part-time player running hot with a massive target-per-route run rate and a touchdown. Can he keep up the hot streak? Possibly. There’s also volatility here that’s being masked by hype. The Chargers are 24th in DVOA, allowing the highest yards per reception to tight ends. Los Angeles is also 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Okonkwo is a TE2.
Gerald Everett: Everett is the TE10 in fantasy points per game with a 14.4% target share (17th) and 62.7% route participation (22nd). Even with a full cupboard of weapons for Herbert last week, Everett had a 17% target share, an end zone target, and a 22% target per route run rate. Everett has the fourth-most red zone targets among tight ends. He drew three red zone looks in last week’s game. Everett is a TE1 facing a Tennessee defense that’s 21st in DVOA, allowing the second-most receiving yards per game and fourth-highest yards per reception to tight ends.
IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 8, the Buccaneers are first in neutral pace and third in neutral passing rate.
- Across their last six games, the Bengals are 18th in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate. This will be a beautiful buffet of pass attempts.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow: Joe Cool is the QB4 in fantasy with eight top-eight weeks this season. Since Week 9, Burrow has been operating on another level. He’s first in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, ninth in big-time throws, and sixth in passing touchdowns (minimum 100 dropbacks). Since Week 10, the Buccaneers pass defense has been beaten up, and it shows. They are 27th in success rate per dropback, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed. Burrow is a strong QB1 whose ceiling will ultimately be tied to how healthy his receiving weapons are this week.
Tom Brady: Brady has been broken goods this season. He’s only had two games where he’s finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback. Since Week 9, he has been ninth in PFF passing grade, 15th in adjusted completion rate, 31st in yards per attempt, and 19th in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Bengals’ pass defense has rebounded nicely since Week 10, ranking 11th in success rate per dropback, 14th in EPA per drop back, and 13th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Brady is an uninspiring QB2 again this week.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon: Mixon returned to the lineup last week, playing 58% of snaps with 16 touches and 106 total yards as the RB16. Mixon only saw one red zone opportunity, while Samaje Perine had three. Mixon also only handled a 44.4% route run rate, while Perine saw a 52.8% route run rate. These are more indictments for Mixon than reasons to play Perine. Mixon could see his usage tick back up to previous levels this week which would crush Perine’s fantasy value. The flip side could also be true where the Bengals want to split up the work even more moving forward. This coin-flip scenario makes Perine too volatile to trust while bumping Mixon down a peg in the process. Mixon’s appeal this year has been his stranglehold on opportunities overall and in the red zone because his efficiency has been terrible. Mixon is 45th in evaded tackles, 42nd in breakaway run rate, and 38th in yards created per touch. The Buccaneers are 11th in rushing success rate, 21st in rushing yards per game, and 27th in explosive run rate since Week 10. Mixon is a scary RB2.
Week 14
Leonard Fournette: Fournette’s story is similar to Mixon’s. Fournette has been woefully average this year. Last week he played 47% of snaps with ten touches and 46 total yards. Fournette has been on and off the injury report recently, so it’s easy also to assume that he’s not fully healthy. Fournette conceded the early down work to White last week while he maintained his edge on passing downs. Fournette is 19th in yards per route run, 28th in juke rate, 53rd in breakaway runs and 42nd in yards per touch. Since Week 12, Cincinnati has been 12th in rushing success rate, 20th in EPA per rush, seventh in rushing yards per game, and seventh in explosive run rate allowed. Fournette is high floor RB3.
Rachaad White: Last week, White out-snapped Fournette with 53% of the snaps. He had 18 touches and 77 total yards. He was still very involved in the passing game and handled the only red zone opportunity for the backfield. Since Week 9, White is 39th in yards after contact per attempt, 16th in breakaway rate, and 48th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). White is also an RB3.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase doing Chase things. It’s a beautiful sight to see. Since Week 13, he’s been his usual beast mode self with a 35.5% target share, 50% end zone target share, and 38.9% air yard share. Chase has been targeted on 31% of his routes, with 3.09 yards per route run. Chase is fourth among wide receivers in red zone targets while also seeing nine deep targets in nine games played. Chase is a WR1 that will run about 73% of his routes against Carlton Davis (56.7% catch rate, 91.9 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (78.9% catch rate, 121.7 passer rating).
Tee Higgins: In the five games this year that Higgins has played at least 75% of the snaps with Chase active, he has a 22.5% target share, 40% end zone target share, and 28.2% air yard share. He was targeted on 23% of his routes, with 2.1 yards per route run. He finished as the WR17, WR5, WR36, WR22, and WR30. Higgins played only one snap last week, while Zach Taylor pulled a fast one on the fantasy community. This week Higgins was limited in Wednesday and Thursday practices before a full session on Friday. He’s been listed as questionable. Higgins is a WR2 that will run about 78% of his routes against Davis and McCollum.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd dislocated a finger in last week’s game and didn’t return. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday before a full day on Friday. Boyd is the WR42 in fantasy this season. He has managed a 14.1% target share, 19.4% air yard share, and six games as a WR3 or better. Boyd hasn’t finished higher than WR40 since Week 9. Boyd will run 82% of his routes as a WR4 against Antoine Winfield (63% catch rate, 89.9 passer rating).
Mike Evans: Evans is in a funk. He’s fallen to WR27 in fantasy, as he hasn’t finished any week higher than WR33 since Week 8. Since Week 9, he has had a 17% target share (7.8 targets per game), a 20% end zone target share, and a 29.3% air yard share. In that five-game snippet, he is averaging 45.6 receiving yards per game with 1.1 yards per route run. Evans only has three red zone targets over his last five games. He’ll run about 74% of his routes against Eli Apple (55.8% catch rate, 94.6 passer rating) and Cam Taylor-Britt (71% catch rate, 112.0 passer rating). Evans is a low-end WR2.
Chris Godwin: Since Week 9, Godwin has a 23% target share (10.6 targets per game) with 66.8 receiving yards per game. He also has a 20% end zone target share and 1.57 yards per route run in his last five games. Godwin is a volume-based WR2 with two top-15 fantasy wideout weeks in his last four games. Godwin’s 5.6 aDOT (99th) is putrid, but he’s been peppered with volume weekly and is 12th in red zone targets. The steady volume and touchdown equity diet have helped raise his weekly floor.
Julio Jones: Jones was a DNP on Wednesday and Thursday before logging a limited practice on Friday. He’s been listed as questionable. Jones is too risky to consider playing this week. When he’s been at less than full health, we’ve seen his route run rate drop as the Buccaneers utilize other receivers to spell him. With his snap share up in the air, he’s too dangerous to toss into your lineup this week.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst: Hurst has been ruled out (calf).
Cade Otton: Cameron Brate returned last week, limiting Otton to a 9.5% target share and 55.4% route run rate. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Brate’s playing time trickle up more this week and crush Otton’s fantasy hopes. He’s a TE2 better off being avoided in fantasy this week.
IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA
New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Giants are 16th in neutral pace with the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Washington lives by a similar offensive mantra, ranking 24th in neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral rushing rate.
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones: Jones is the QB12 in fantasy points per game with top 12 weeks in three of his last four games. One of those weeks came against this Commander’s defense. Jones completed 80.6% of his passes with a passing score (6.5 yards per attempt) and 71 yards on the ground. Jones is tenth in fantasy points per dropback, second in true completion rate, and eighth in true passer rating. His rushing has been the trump card. Jones is third in red zone carries, fifth in rushing yards per game, and fourth in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Jones is a QB2 that could sneak into the top 12 this week if he gets it done in the rushing department. Washington has improved as a pass defense over the last few weeks. Since Week 8, they are second in success rate per dropback, fifth in passing yards per game, and tenth in explosive pass rate allowed. Over the same period, they are also sixth in pressure rate, so expect Jones to be scrambling for his life at times.
Taylor Heinicke: The last time these teams met, Heinicke was the QB11 as he tossed for two scores (65.9% completion rate) and his second-highest passing yardage total of the season (275). I’ll be shocked if he repeats those numbers. That’s not the type of team that Washington wants to be. They prefer to run the ball and play sound defense as they grind out wins. Heinicke threw the ball 41 times in that game. He hadn’t attempted more than 29 passes in his four previous starts. Since Week 8, the Giants are 15th in success rate per dropback, 28th in EPA per drop back, and 24th in explosive pass rate allowed, so there’s an avenue for Heinicke to still post solid numbers. He’s best viewed as a mid-range QB2.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley: Barkley played 31% of snaps last week with 11 touches and 48 total yards as he was dealing with a neck issue. Barkley opens the week, not on the injury report, so expect him to return to his usual workload in Week 15. In Weeks 1-13, he averaged 23.5 touches and 108 total yards per game. Barkley’s efficiency has been plummeting like a stone. He’s now 39th in yards after contact per attempt and 46th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Barkley hasn’t rushed for more than 63 yards since Week 10. He’s only managed one breakaway run over his last four games. Against Washington, in Week 13, he ran for 3.5 yards per carry and saved his day with a touchdown. Since Week 8, Washington is 11th in rushing success rate, sixth in rushing yards per game, and 12th in explosive run rate allowed. Barkley is an RB2.
Weeks 10-13
Brian Robinson: Since Week 10, Robinson has averaged 21 touches and 94.8 total yards. He’s been a top-24 fantasy back in three of his last four games (RB15, RB5, RB21). Over the last five weeks, he’s 30th in yards after contact per attempt, seventh in missed tackles forced, and 22nd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). Robinson posted 21 carries for 96 rushing yards against this defense in Week 13. He’s poised for other 20-plus touches this week. Since Week 8, New York has been 25th in rushing success rate, 27th in rushing yards per game, and 32nd in explosive run rate allowed. Robinson is a rock-solid RB2.
Antonio Gibson: Across his last four games, Gibson has averaged 15.3 touches and 68.6 total yards. He was the RB14 and RB17 in fantasy in Weeks 10-11 before dipping to the RB39 and RB36 in weekly scoring over his last two games. Gibson’s efficiency has been abysmal all year. He’s 46th in juke rate, 32nd in evaded tackles, 30th in fantasy points per opportunity, and 36th in yards created per touch. With a plus-matchup and 12-15 touches this week, he’s an RB3 that could creep into the top 24 if he scores a touchdown.
Wide Receivers
Darius Slayton: Since Week 7, Slayton has a 20.7% target share (6.1 targets per game), averaging 71.4 receiving yards per game. In those seven games, he has garnered a 39.5% air-yard share with 2.39 yards per route run. Last time against the Washington secondary, he secured six of his eight targets for 90 receiving yards and a WR22 finish for the week. Slayton has finished as a WR3 or higher in five of his last seven games. He still has not seen a red zone target since Week 6. Slayton is a WR3/4 that will run about 67% of his routes against Kendall Fuller (60% catch rate, 91.3 passer rating) and Christian Holmes (100% catch rate, 158.3 passer rating, six targets).
Terry McLaurin: With Heinicke as his quarterback, McLaurin has a 30.8% target share, 27.3% end zone target share, and 51.1% air-yard share. He’s averaged 82.6 receiving yards per game with a 30% target per route run rate. Since Week 7, he’s fifth in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 20 targets). In their last meeting, McLaurin torched this secondary with eight grabs and 105 receiving yards (WR7). Since Week 12, the Giants outside corners have operated in man coverage on 50-57% of their coverage snaps. With Heinicke as his quarterback, McLaurin is 13th in PFF receiving grade and 19th in yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets). McLaurin is a WR2 that will run about 72% of his routes against Fabian Moreau (56.1% catch rate, 95.3 passer rating) and Nick McCloud (68% catch rate, 120.1 passer rating).
Curtis Samuel: Since Week 7, Samuel has had a 14.6% target share averaging 38.4 receiving yards per game. Across his last seven games, Samuel has surpassed 60 receiving yards twice with three weeks as a WR3 or higher (WR25, WR14, WR24). If Washington has their way this week, they will take the air out of the ball, which leaves McLaurin as the only stable(ish) fantasy receiver. Samuel is a WR4/5 that will run about 69% of his routes against Darnay Holmes (60.4% catch rate, 88.8 passer rating).
Jahan Dotson: In Week 13 against New York, Dotson played his highest snap count (79%) since Week 3. It was his first game to see more than two targets from Heinicke. He finished with nine targets, five grabs, 54 receiving yards, and a score. Dotson has seen 31% of his target volume against man coverage with 1.36 yards per route run (58th, minimum ten man coverage targets). Dotson has finished outside the top 80 fantasy wide receivers in three of his last four games. He’s a WR6 that will run about 74% of his routes against Moreau and McCloud.
Tight Ends
Logan Thomas: Since returning to his usual workload in Week 9, Thomas has only one game with more than 20 receiving yards. In Week 13, he saw his route run rate cut to 48.9%. He’s a TE2 that’s best left on the bench or the waiver wire this week.
IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA
Los Angeles Rams vs. Green Bay Packers
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 11, the Rams have been 17th in neutral pace and fourth in neutral rushing rate.
- Over that period, Green Bay is 28th in neutral pace and 17th in neutral passing rate.
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield: In his first game with the Rams, Mayfield was 16th in PFF passing grade with 6.6 yards per attempt (20th) and a 66.7% adjusted completion rate (27th). Sean McVay dialed up play-action on 34.1% of Mayfield’s dropbacks. Green Bay has had issues defending play-action this season. They have conceded the 12th-highest completion rate and the fifth-highest passer rating to play-action passes. Since Week 8, Green Bay has been 24th in success rate per dropback, 25th in EPA per drop back, and 16th in explosive pass rate allowed. Mayfield is a surprisingly solid QB2 option who beat his QB16 finish in Week 14.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is the QB20 in fantasy with two QB1 weeks this season. Rodgers is 11th in PFF passing grade, 25th in yards per attempt, and third in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). He is 20th in fantasy points per dropback. Rodgers is second in deep ball attempts this season while sitting at 16th in deep ball accuracy. Since Week 8, the Rams’ pass defense has fallen apart. They are 31st in success rate per dropback, 30th in EPA per drop back, and 28th in passing yards per game. They have yielded the fifth-highest deep ball completion rate. Rodgers is a QB2 who could post his third top-12 outing of the season.
Running Backs
Weeks 13-14
Cam Akers: Since Week 13, Akers has averaged 15.5 touches and 51.5 total yards. In those weeks, he finished as the RB8 and RB25 in fantasy. Since Week 11, Akers is 20th in yards after contact per attempt, fourth in missed tackles forced, and tenth in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). The Rams have shown more commitment to Akers recently, as he has garnered all of the red zone work since Week 13. Akers is an RB2/3 that could post season-high numbers this week against Green Bay. Since Week 8, the Packers are 32nd in rushing success rate, 32nd in rushing yards per game, and 27th in explosive run rate allowed.
Aaron Jones: Before their bye week in Week 14, Jones was dealing with a shin injury that limited him in practice all week and led to 38% of the snaps played in Week 13. Jones has practiced on a limited basis so far this week. Jones looks like he’ll be back this week and presumably resuming his lead role in this backfield. In Weeks 10-12, Jones averaged 19.7 touches and 105 total yards. Jones is the RB10 in fantasy, ranking 11th in weighted opportunities, 12th in juke rate, and fourth in evaded tackles. He faces a tough run defense for the Rams. Since Week 8, they are fifth in rushing yards per game, tenth in EPA per rush, and fifth in explosive run rate allowed. Jones is a low-end RB1/high-end RB2.
A.J. Dillon: In Weeks 10-12, Dillon averaged 10.2 touches and 58.6 total yards. Dillon is the RB36 in fantasy. He’s been woefully inefficient this season, ranking 63rd in fantasy points per opportunity, 31st in yards per touch, and 32nd in true yards per carry. Projection Jones as a full-go means Dillon will play a complementary role alongside Jones while losing most of the red zone work to his counterpart. Dillon is an RB3.
Wide Receivers
Tutu Atwell: Last week, Atwell managed a 63.4% route participation rate with a 25.7% target share and 1.92 yards per route run. Among all wide receivers with at least 20 targets, he is eighth in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run. Atwell has been a big play threat anytime he touches the ball. Atwell will run about 62% of his routes against Keisean Nixon (75% catch rate, 79.7 passer rating) as a deep league flex.
Van Jefferson: Since Week 11, Jefferson has had a 17.4% target share, a 40% end zone target share, and a 27.1% air yard share. He’s produced 1.19 yards per route run and a 15% target per route run rate over this stretch with two WR3 weeks (WR35, WR32). Jefferson is a WR5 that will run about 77% of his routes against Jaire Alexander (58.6% catch rate, 70.0 passer rating) and Rasul Douglas (70.8% catch rate, 103.8 passer rating).
Allen Lazard: Lazard is the WR32 in fantasy with a 21.1% target share and 31.0% air yard share (22nd). He is 11th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets among wide receivers. Lazard ranks 35th among 89 qualifying wide receivers in open rate. Lazard is a WR3 that will run about 56% of his routes against Troy Hill (68.6% catch rate, 96.2 passer rating) and Jalen Ramsey (68.7% catch rate, 123.9 passer rating).
Christian Watson: Watson has been a superhero for fantasy teams down the stretch. Over his last four games, he’s scored seven touchdowns with WR3, WR8, WR10, and WR8 weekly finishes. Since Week 10, he has had a 23.9% target share (6.8 targets per game), 45.5% end zone target share and 45.8% air yard share. Watson ranks 13th in yards per route run and fourth in YAC per reception (minimum 25 targets). He’ll run about 66% of his routes against Ramsey and HIll. Watson is a WR2.
Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee: Since Week 12, Higbee’s numbers have plummeted. Over his last three games, he hasn’t seen more than five targets or produced more than 14 receiving yards. Higbee is a TE2 against a Packers’ defense that’s tenth in fantasy points per game and sixth in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
Robert Tonyan: Tonyan is a matchup-based streamer this week. If you’re hurting at the tight end position, he’s a TE2 that could easily wow people with top-12 numbers in Week 15. Tonyan has a 13.3% target share with only seven red zone targets (16th) and three deep looks (23rd). Rolling out Tonyan in your lineup is all about the Rams’ issues with defending tight ends. Since Week 7, they are 24th in catch rate, 30th in fantasy points per game, and 29th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.
IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Pace and playcalling notes
- The passing volume in this game will be surprising. Since Week 13, the 49ers have been 12th in neutral script passing rate. Overall this season, the Seahawks rank eighth in passing rate in close games.
- Seattle remains 14th in neutral script pace. The 49ers have remained slow with Brock Purdy under center as they are 27th in neutral pace over the last two weeks.
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy: In Purdy’s two NFL starts, he’s finished as the QB18 and QB6 in fantasy. He’s 36th in PFF passing grade, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 24th in adjusted completion rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). Purdy is a solid QB2 that can be elevated any week by the surrounding skill player talent into QB1 status. That could easily happen again this week. He’s also 49th in aDOT as he’s relied on his receivers to make plays after the catch. The Seahawks are 28th in YAC, so San Francisco’s skill guys should have plenty of opportunities to create some big plays. Since Week 10, Seattle has been 29th in success rate per dropback and 23rd in EPA per dropback.
Geno Smith: Smith has been excellent this year and shows no signs of slowing down. He’s sixth in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and fourth in passing touchdowns. Chef Geno has a daunting task in front of him this week. The 49ers’ pass defense has been a shutdown unit outside of cratering under the greatness of Patrick Mahomes. Since Week 10, they are first in success rate per dropback and second in EPA per dropback allowed. They have held quarterbacks to the second-fewest passing touchdowns (tied) and the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns. Seattle will have a tough time moving the ball against the 49ers’ run defense, so Smith and the passing attack will be the Seahawks’ primary means of moving the ball. Temper your expectations for Smith this week, but he can still bring back low-end QB1 numbers if the volume gets ramped up.
Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey: Since becoming a 49er, McCaffrey has been a volume monster without Elijah Mitchell in the lineup. In the three games without Mitchell, McCaffrey has played at least 70% of the snaps averaging 22.3 touches and 149.3 total yards. Since Week 7, he’s 40th in yards after contact per attempt but sixth in breakaway rate and runs of ten-plus yards. As a 49er, McCaffrey has remained one of the league’s elite receiving backs with a 19.4% target share (6.7 targets per game), 58.7% route run rate, and 2.15 yards per route run. McCaffrey is a top-three running back again this week against a push-over Seattle run defense. Since Week 10, they are 30th in rushing success rate, 31st in EPA per rush, and 31st in explosive run rate allowed. The Seahawks have also allowed the sixth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to backs this season. McCaffrey has week winning upside in Week 15.
Jordan Mason: Over the last two weeks as McCaffrey’s running mate, Mason has averaged 24% of the snaps with 9.5 rushes and 53.5 rushing yards per game. Since Week 7, Mason is seventh in yards after contact per attempt and third in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries) as he’s made the most of his opportunities. However, Mason is still waiting for his first opportunity in the red zone this season. With a beautiful matchup incoming but zero touchdown equity, Mason is an RB4 that you’re praying breaks off a long run for six points.
Kenneth Walker: Walker has practiced in full the last two days and doesn’t carry an injury designation this week. Since Week 6, in the full games Walker has played, he has been averaging 20.9 touches and 94.8 total yards. Walker is fifth in red zone touches and 17th in opportunity share. He’s been a big play machine, ranking sixth in juke rate, ninth in evaded tackles, and seventh in breakaway run rate. Fire him up as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 despite the grueling defense he’s facing. Since Week 10, the 49ers are eighth in rushing success rate, second in rushing yards per game, and first in explosive run rate allowed.
DeeJay Dallas: Dallas has not practiced all week. He has been listed as questionable. Consider him out this week.
Travis Homer: Despite pregame reports that Tony Jones Jr. would be the Seahawks starting running back, Homer was the workhorse last week. He played 91% of the snaps with 11 touches and 34 total yards. Homer returns to breather-back status that will contribute some in the passing game. He’s an RB4.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel: Samuel will miss some time after suffering a sprained MCL and ankle sprain last week. The team is hoping he returns during the regular season.
Brandon Aiyuk: Aiyuk has a 21.3% target share this season while leading the team in receiving touchdowns (seven) and air yard share (30.2%). He’s been an elite talent this season, ranking 19th in PFF receiving grade and 31st in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Per ESPN analytics, he’s seventh in open rate among wideouts, with at least 34 targets immediately behind Davante Adams. With Purdy under center, he has a 19.4% target share averaging six targets and 51.5 receiving yards. Aiyuk will get a target share bump with Samuel out of the lineup. Aiyuk is a WR2/3 that will run about 73% of his routes against Tariq Woolen (54.9% catch rate, 65.6 passer rating) and Michael Jackson (63.5% catch rate, 93.7 passer rating).
Tyler Lockett: Lockett is having one of the best seasons of his career. He’s on pace for 1,172 receiving yards and ten receiving touchdowns, which would be the second-highest single-season receiving yardage of his career while tying his career high in touchdowns. Lockett has a 23.6% target share (23rd) and 32.5% air yard share (20th, minimum 50 targets). He’s 20th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). I know I keep harping on it, but the trend for Lockett bears fruit weekly. Does the team favor zone coverage in their defensive scheme? Ok, then Lockett eats week. The 49ers are another team that loves zone coverage, as their starting outside corners have operated in zone on 65-67.3% of their coverage snaps. Lockett is ninth in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run against zone (minimum ten zone targets). Lockett is a WR1 that will run about 56% of his routes against Charvarius Ward (59.7% catch rate, 87.1 passer rating) and Deommodore Lenoir (68.9% catch rate, 85.1 passer rating).
D.K. Metcalf: Metcalf continues to do Metcalf things weekly. He’s seventh in target share (26.4%), second in end zone target share (50%), and 11th in air yard share (37.7%) among receivers with at least 50 targets. While he’s not on Lockett’s level against zone coverage, Metcalf isn’t a bum either, ranking 28th in PFF receiving grade and 39th in yards per route run against the coverage (minimum ten zone targets). Metcalf is tied for ninth in receiving touchdowns (six). He’s a WR2 that will run about 82% of his routes against Ward and Lenoir.
Tight Ends
George Kittle: With Samuel out of the lineup, Kittle should also see a stronger target share this week. Since 2020 in the six games without Samuel in the lineup, Kittle has seen his PPR points per game jump from 13.0 to 15.7 and his receiving yards per game increase from 59.7 to 77.1. Kittle has a 16.7% target share, a 28.6% end zone target share, and a 78.5% route run rate this year. He’s 14th in PFF receiving grade and 17th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). Kittle is a top-five tight-end option. Seattle is 27th in DVOA, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards and second-highest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
SEA TEs: The Seattle tight-end room has been an avoidable crapshoot of disappointment. Over the last three games, none of them has earned higher than an 8.2% target share or 35.9% route run rate. Noah Fant, Will Dissly, and Colby Parkinson have formed a dreaded three-way tight-end committee. Avoid everyone from this tight-end depth chart until it whittles down to at least two players or someone emerges from this group.
IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA
