The Primer: Week 15 Edition (2022 Fantasy Football)

Dallas Cowboys vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

• DAL -4.5, O/U 47.5
• Cowboys vs. Jaguars Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• This game could wear the crown for Week 15 with the most plays run. Since Week 8, Dallas is second in neutral pace, followed by Jacksonville at 13th.
• Over that span, the Jaguars have increased their neutral passing rate (14th) while the Cowboys have leaned on their ground game (21st in neutral passing rate).

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott: Since Week 7, Prescott has been the QB10 in fantasy. With zero 300-yard passing games this season, he’s been living off of touchdowns and efficiency with multiple passing scores in five of his last six games. Over his last seven games, he’s 14th in PFF passing grade, 18th in adjusted completion rate, and tenth in yards per attempt (minimum 100 dropbacks). Prescott is 11th in fantasy points per dropback. Since Week 9, Jacksonville has been 29th in success rate per dropback, 30th in passing yards per game, and 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed. Prescott is a solid QB1.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has been a QB1 in six of his last eight games to pull himself up to QB10 in fantasy for the year. Since Week 9, he’s second in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Watching him begin to fulfill the promise of his prospect hype has been amazing. Dallas will be a litmus test for his growth as a quarterback. Since Week 10, they are ninth in success rate per dropback, seventh in passing yards per game, fourth in EPA per drop back, and seventh in explosive pass rate allowed. Lawrence is a borderline QB1.

Running Backs

Weeks 12-14

Ezekiel Elliott: Elliott is the RB20 in fantasy as he lives off red zone usage and touchdowns. Elliott is 16th in red zone touches and eighth in touchdowns (nine). Since Week 7 he’s averaged 15.6 rushing attempts and 66 rushing yards. He’s averaged four targets and 16.5 receiving yards over his last two games, but I wouldn’t count on pass game usage weekly. Those are his only two games this year with more than two targets. Elliott has scored a touchdown in each of his last six games played. Jacksonville should allow him to keep the streak alive. Since Week 10 they are 19th in rushing success rate, 24th in rushing yards per game, and 21st in explosive run rate allowed. Elliott is an RB2.

Tony Pollard: Since Week 12, Pollard has averaged 16 touches and 76.3 total yards with RB40, RB2, and RB6 finishes. Pollard has been one of the best per-touch running backs in the NFL. He is fifth in fantasy points per opportunity, seventh in yards per route run, third in breakaway run rate, and 11th in yards created per touch. While Elliott has had the edge in rushing volume and red zone usage, Pollard has been more of a factor in the passing game. With 15-20 touches in his range of outcomes weekly, Pollard is a high-end RB2/low-end RB1.

Travis Etienne: Etienne has not finished as a top-24 running back or scored a touchdown since Week 9. He missed nearly all of his Week 12 game due to injury and then faced a buzzsaw of tough matchups with Detroit and Tennessee. With 87% and 73% of the snaps played in his last two games, we can safely say that Etienne is healthy. Since taking over as the team’s starter, Etienne is averaging 17.3 touches and 83 total yards. Etienne has hit an efficiency wall, though, as he hasn’t crossed 2.5 yards after contact per attempt in a game since Week 9. Over his last four games, he’s forced a total of five missed tackles. Despite his recent struggles, Etienne is a volume-based RB2. Since Week 10, Dallas is fourth in rushing success rate, 18th in rushing yards per game, and 17th in explosive run rate allowed.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb has been dominant down the stretch. He has top-18 wide receiver finishes in four of his last six games. He’s the WR10 in fantasy with a 29.1% target share (eighth-best) and 35.1% air-yard share (13th). Lamb is 11th in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. He is ninth in fantasy points per route run. Lamb is a WR1 that will run about 66% of his routes against Tre Herndon (66.7% catch rate, 133.0 passer rating). Since Week 7, Jacksonville has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to slot receivers.

Michael Gallup: Gallup is still looking for his first game with at least 70 receiving yards this year. Since Prescott’s return, he has an 18% target share (5.7 targets per game), 21.4% end zone target share, and 27.6% air yard share with an anemic 1.31 yards per route run. Gallup has struggled all year with getting open ranking 72nd in open rate among 89 qualifying receivers (per ESPN analytics). Gallup is a WR4/5 that will run about 98% of his routes against Tyson Campbell (59.4% catch rate, 85.5 passer rating) and Darious Williams (59.7% catch rate, 91.6 passer rating).

Christian Kirk: Kirk is the WR13 in fantasy garnering a 23.8% target share and 26.9% air yard share. He’s been utilized downfield (21st in deep targets) and near the goal line (fourth in red zone targets). Kirk is 25th in PFF receiving grade and 30th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Kirk is a WR2 that will run about 76% of his routes against DaRon Bland (81.6% catch rate, 75.8 passer rating).

Zay Jones: Jones is the WR31 in fantasy points per game with a 23.2% target share and 11 red zone targets (19th). He’s been a PPR machine with four games with at least eight receptions. Jones is 12th in receptions among wide receivers as he’s made good use of his 98 targets (16th) this season. Jones ranks 35th among 89 qualifying wide receivers in open rate (per ESPN analytics). The big question for his Week 15 outlook is, does he get shadowed by Trevon Diggs? Diggs has shadowed four times this season following A.J. Brown, Allen Lazard, Justin Jefferson, and Michael Pittman on 62-85% of their routes, holding each to less than 20 receiving yards. If Trevon Diggs (68.3% catch rate, 89.8 passer rating) doesn’t shadow him, then he’ll run about 66% of his routes against Diggs and Kelvin Joseph (66.7% catch rate, 141.4 passer rating). Jones is a WR3.

Marvin Jones: Jones has not seen more than four targets in a game since Week 9. He hasn’t surpassed 50 receiving yards since Week 7, yet this could be a game that Lawrence leans on him. Jones has a 13.7% target share while struggling with 1.26 yards per route run (84th). If Zay Jones gets shadowed by Diggs, Marvin Jones will see Joseph for most of the game. Despite ranking 79th out of 89 qualifying wide receivers in open rate (per ESPN analytics), this is a matchup Marvin Jones can win. If you’re in the playoffs right now, chances are you haven’t had to count on a deep pull like Jones this week, but he’s a WR5 that could post solid numbers as a desperation deep league flex.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz: Since Week 7, Schultz has had a 20.3% target share, 50% end zone target share, and 66.5% route run rate. With Prescott under center in that stretch, Schultz is the TE6 in fantasy points per game. Over his last seven games, he’s 15th in PFF receiving grade, fourth in yards per route run, and 12th in YAC. Schultz is a top-five tight end. Jacksonville is 32nd in DVOA against tight ends allowing the tenth-highest catch rate and the third-highest yards per reception.

Evan Engram: With Engram’s ridiculous and earth-shattering Week 14 stat line, he’s up to TE9 for the season. Engram is 14th in target share (16.6%) and 13th in route participation (72.7%) this season. He’s handled eight deep targets (fifth) and eight red zone looks (11th). Half of his red zone targets have come in the last two games, as the team has heavily involved him in the weekly game plan. Engram is a low-end TE1 facing a Dallas defense that’s seventh in DVOA against the position allowing the lowest yards per reception and only one touchdown to tight ends.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans

• KC -14, O/U 49.5
• Chiefs vs. Texans Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Chiefs have been ninth in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate.
• Across their last seven games, Houston is 25th in neutral pace and sixth in neutral rushing rate as they attempt to milk the clock weekly.

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes: What’s left to say about Mahomes? You’re starting him weekly if he’s on your roster. Mahomes is the QB2 in fantasy, ranking first in passing yards, first in passing touchdowns, and sixth in fantasy points per dropback. Mahomes is first in red zone passing attempts, 11th in deep attempts, and second in yards per attempt. Since Week 10, Houston is 23rd in success rate per dropback, 13th in EPA per drop back, and 11th in explosive pass rate allowed. Mahomes is a top-three fantasy quarterback weekly, regardless of defensive matchup.

Davis Mills: Mills has one game this season higher than QB17 in fantasy. He’s a QB2 that bounces between the mid-range of that designation to the basement. With the Texans now deploying Jeff Driskel in a “Taysom Hill” type role, Mills is unplayable. He has failed to crest 12 fantasy points in three of his last five games.

Running Backs

Weeks 12-14

Isiah Pacheco: Since Week 12, Pacheco has averaged 18.3 touches and 87 total yards. He has finished as a top-24 fantasy back in each of his last four games (RB23, RB16, RB15, RB17). Pacheco’s fantasy output has been greatly enhanced by the offense he finds himself in. He hasn’t been anything special from an efficiency standpoint. He’s 31st in yards after contact per attempt, 37th in breakaway rate, and 40th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 50 carries). Since Week 10, Houston has toughened up against the run, ranking sixth in rushing success rate, sixth in EPA per rush, and 13th in yards per carry. Pacheco remains a steady RB2.

Jerick McKinnon: Since Week 11, McKinnon has played at least 47% of the snaps in three of four games averaging 8.3 touches and 61.1 total yards. He’s been a top-20 fantasy back in three of his last five games. McKinnon’s recent touchdown output has been nice, but his three scores over the last two games are his first end zone dances since Week 2. His red zone usage since Week 12 doesn’t need to be dismissed, though, as he has almost equaled Pacheco in this category. McKinnon has been explosive when he’s had opportunities this season, ranking first in yards created per touch, 13th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per opportunity. McKinnon is an RB3 facing a defense that’s 15th in DVOA and 13th in yards per reception against receiving backs.

Dameon Pierce:  Pierce has been ruled out.

Weeks 12-14

Dare Ogunbowale: Ogunbowale looks like the next back in the rotation with Pierce out this week. He has received the most work behind Pierce since Week 12, but that doesn’t mean Burkhead won’t be involved. This could easily dissolve into an even split, with each player crushing the other’s fantasy value. Ogunbowale hasn’t been effective as a rusher this season, with 1.88 yards after contact per attempt and only one missed tackle forced with his eight attempts. He excels in the passing game with 2.21 yards per route run on his 17 targets. Even if Ogunbowale can carve out all of the passing game to himself, this puts him on the flex radar against a Chiefs’ defense that’s 29th in DVOA against receiving backs. Kansas City allows the second-most receptions and receiving yards per game to running backs. Ogunbowale and Burkhead are both volatile RB3/4 types. 

Wide Receivers

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Smith-Schuster bounced back last week with a WR6 finish playing 80% of the snaps and finishing with 11 targets, nine grabs, and 74 receiving yards (one touchdown). Smith-Schuster is the WR28 in fantasy with an 18.3% target share (6.8 targets per game) and 13 red zone targets (12th). Six of them have come across his last six games played. Smith-Schuster is 31st in PFF receiving grade and 27th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Houston deploys their starting corners in zone coverage on 65-73% of their snaps. Smith-Schuster should eat their zone defense alive. He’s seen 56% of his target volume against zone, ranking 15th in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum ten zone targets). Smith-Schuster will run about 60% of his routes against Desmond King (73.7% catch rate, 94.0 passer rating) and Tremon Smith (career: 65.5% catch rate, 72.2 passer rating). Smith-Schuster is a WR2.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Valdes-Scantling is the WR69 in fantasy with a paltry 12.8% target share and 15.2% target per route run rate. He has one top-24 finish over his last five games. He’s a dart throw not worth taking with the fantasy playoffs here and championship hopes on the line.

Kadarius Toney: Toney has been limited in practice all week (hamstring). Most beat reporters around the team lean toward Andy Reid holding out Toney another week as his hamstring still isn’t 100%. If Toney is active, his snap count range of outcomes is too unpredictable to trust him in your lineup this week.

Mecole Hardman: The news on Hardman hasn’t been positive. He likely won’t be suiting up in Week 15.

Chris Moore: Last week, Moore exploded with 11 targets, ten grabs, and 124 receiving yards as the WR6 for the week. He handled a 43.5% target share and 43% air yard share with 3.26 yards per route run. Moore should be the focal point of the passing attack again this week, with Cooks and Collins both out. Moore will run about 64% of his routes on the perimeter against the trio of Trent McDuffie (51.7% catch rate, 86.0 passer rating), Joshua Williams (69.2% catch rate, 133.2 passer rating), and Jaylen Watson (67.9% catch rate, 105.7 passer rating). Moore is a WR4. The Chiefs have allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers. 

Brandin Cooks: Cooks has been ruled out.

Nico Collins: Collins has been ruled out.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce: Kelce is the TE1 in fantasy, ranking first in targets, third in target share, and fifth in deep targets. He leads all tight ends in receptions, receiving yards, YAC, and red zone targets. There is no scenario where you’re taking him out of your lineup, barring injury. Matchups don’t matter for this behemoth. He’s the WR1 tied to Mahomes.

Jeff Driskel (Yahoo only): Driskel can be played at TE on Yahoo. Last week Driskel played 50% of the snaps with seven rushing attempts for 36 yards. He also completed four of his six passes for 38 yards and a touchdown. This left him with 9.1 fantasy points which in 0.5 PPR scoring would have made him the TE8 for the week. Feel free to fire him up if you need the upside at TE on this site this week. Houston has stated they will continue rotating him in this week as he’ll remain a part of the offense.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA

Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos

• DEN -3, O/U 36.5
• Cardinals vs. Broncos Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In Colt McCoy‘s two starts earlier this season, the team operated at 28.2 seconds per snap while passing the ball on 63.4% of their neutral snaps. These marks would rank 20th in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate overall this season.
• In Brett Rypien‘s only start this season, the team moved at 24.3 seconds per snap while throwing the ball on 62.6% of their neutral situation snaps. In neutral situations, this would put them at first in neutral pace and fifth in neutral passing rate overall this season. While this game looks gross, there could be a ton of play volume in this contest.

Quarterbacks

Colt McCoy: McCoy has been an efficient game manager this season. He’s 12th in PFF passing grade, 13th in adjusted completion rate, 36th in yards per attempt, and 21st in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). In his three games of extended action, he’s finished as the QB23, QB23, and QB21. McCoy is a lower-tier QB2 this week. Since Week 10, Denver has been sixth in success rate per dropback, 24th in passing yards per game, and 25th in explosive pass rate allowed. McCoy might not be much to write home about for fantasy in Week 15, but he should be able to move the offense and support the skill players here effectively.

Brett Rypien: Russell Wilson is out this week. Rypien will draw the start. The last time we saw Rypien start, he completed 52.1% of his passes with 4.8 yards per attempt as the QB24 for the week. It also needs to be mentioned that it was against the New York Jets’ elite pass-defense. I’m not saying Rypien is anything more than a QB2 this week, but we have seen him look serviceable in the NFL. In 2020 he made one start against the Jets, where he finished as the QB23 for the week with 242 passing yards and two passing scores (7.8 yards per attempt). Since Week 8, the Cardinals are 28th in success rate per dropback and 21st in passing yards per game. Rypien is a low-end QB2. 

Running Backs

James Conner: Since Week 10, Conner has played at least 95% of snaps in three of four games averaging 22.3 touches and 98.5 total yards. He’s seen at least three targets in each game. Conner has returned to being an elite workhorse. He’s finished as the RB19, RB3, RB16, RB4, and RB5 over his last five games. He’s eighth in snap share, 12th in opportunity share, and RB18 in expected fantasy points per game. Conner is 15th in juke rate, 16th in evaded tackles, and 17th in yards created per touch. Denver can be run on. Since Week 10, they are 16th in rushing success rate, 15th in EPA per rush, and 16th in explosive run rate allowed. Conner is an RB1.

Week 14

Latavius Murray: Murray played 53% of the snaps last week with 11 touches and 31 total yards. That snap percentage was his lowest since Week 12. Murray is a plodder of the highest order. A slug covered in salt and dropped into a pool of molasses. He’s 60th in fantasy points per opportunity, 48th in juke rate, 47th in evaded tackles, and 70th in breakaway runs. Since Week 10, Arizona is 29th in yards per carry, 23rd in rushing success rate, and 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Murray is a touchdown-dependent RB3/4.

Marlon Mack: Last week, Mack played 32% of the snaps with Mike Boone leaving due to injury. He responded with 77 total yards on five touches. The fact that this coaching staff has continued to play Murray ahead of more talented backs this season is not only infuriating but absolutely insane. In limited work this season (seven carries), Mack has looked good with 3.29 yards after contact per attempt and a 59.7 PFF elusive rating. He also managed 2.52 yards after contact per attempt and 4.3 yards per carry in the preseason. Mack should continue to work in tandem with Murray as an RB4.

Wide Receivers

DeAndre Hopkins: In McCoy’s three games played, Hopkins has a 31.4% target share averaging 89.3 receiving yards with a 25% end zone target share and 43.4% air yard share. He has been targeted on 31% of his routes, with 2.25 yards per route run. Hopkins has three red zone targets in those three games with WR12, WR12, and WR30 finishes. Hopkins remains a volume-based WR1 with McCoy under center that will run about 73% of his routes against Patrick Surtain (58.1% catch rate, 84.8 passer rating) and Damarri Mathis (72.6% catch rate, 96.0 passer rating).

Marquise Brown: Last week, Brown had a 19.5% target share with a 50% end zone target share and a 28.1% air yard share with McCoy. Since his return from injury, Brown has a 23.5% target share averaging 40 receiving yards per game with a 94.1% route run rate and 1.00 yards per route run. Brown has five red zone targets over his last two games. He’s a WR3 that will run about 65% of his routes against Surtain and Mathis.

Courtland Sutton: Sutton has been ruled out (hamstring).

Jerry Jeudy: With Sutton banged up or out of the lineup the last two games, Jeudy has had a 20.3% target share with a 75% enzone target share (1.5 per game) and a 25.6% air yard share with 2.56 yards per route run. Jeudy was the WR39 and the WR1 in fantasy with his three-touchdown outing last week. He had at least 65 receiving yards in both games. Jeudy is a WR3 that will run about 75% of his routes against Antonio Hamilton (71.1% catch rate, 99.5 passer rating) and Isaiah Simmons (84.5% catch rate, 95.4 passer rating).

Kendall Hinton: Hinton has been ruled out (hamstring).

Tight Ends

Trey McBride: Since being elevated to the starting job, McBride has a 9.7% target share (3.5 targets per game) while averaging 12.5 receiving yards per game. Denver is fourth in DVOA against tight ends, ranking tenth in catch rate and 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to inline tight ends (McBride 59% inline). He’s a TE2.

Greg Dulcich: Dulcich is the TE13 in fantasy with a 17.4% target share (13th) and 81.3% route participation (eighth-best). His season has ebbed and flowed with the hills and valleys of this offense. Dulcich has a wide receiver-Esque 20.2% air yard share (second) and 11.9 aDOT (second). He’s 16th in yards per route run and ranked second among tight ends in deep targets. Dulcich is a TE1 facing a defense that’s allowed the most fantasy points per game, the highest catch rate, and most receiving yards per game to tight ends.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA

New England Patriots vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• NE -0.5, O/U 44.5
• Patriots vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, Vegas has been 17th in neutral pace and 16th in passing rate in close games.
• In their last six games, New England is 20th in neutral pace while passing at the seventh-highest rate in neutral situations.

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones: Jones is a QB2. He’s finished as a QB2 in all but two games this season. Since Week 11, Jones has been playing much better football. He is sixth in PFF passing grade, tenth in yards per attempt, sixth in adjusted completion rate, and 19th in big-time throw rate (minimum 50 dropbacks). The Raiders have been a joke of a pass defense. Since Week 10, Las Vegas is 25th in success rate per dropback, 17th in EPA per dropback, 25th in passing yards per game, and 30th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Derek Carr: Carr has hit his stride since Week 9 with top 13 performances in four of his last six games. Since Week 9, Carr is fifth in passing yards, eighth in yards per attempt, fifth in big-time throw rate, and fourth in passing touchdowns (minimum 50 dropbacks). Since Week 10, New England has been 14th in success rate per dropback, seventh in EPA per dropback, ninth in passing yards per game, and eighth in explosive pass rate allowed. Carr is a QB2.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday before he was limited in practice on Friday. Stevenson feels a true 50/50 call, but we’ll see if we get further clarification on his status on Saturday. Stevenson has been one of the best running backs in the NFL this season, no matter how you slice it. He’s tenth in yards per route run and top-five in juke rate, evaded tackles, and yards created per touch. Since Week 8, the Raiders are 15th in rushing success rate, seventh in EPA per rush, and seventh in explosive run rate allowed. Where Stevenson will make his money is through the air. The Raiders are 32nd in DVOA against running backs in the passing game. They have allowed the fourth-most receptions, most receiving yards, and third-highest yards per reception to backs. If active, Stevenson is an RB1.

Damien Harris: Harris has been ruled out.

Pierre Strong:  Last week, Strong played 32% of the snaps with nine touches that he turned into 90 total yards and a score. Strong has 2.67 yards after contact per attempt clip and a 66.7 PFF elusive rating in his limited work. He also logged a 22.2% route run rate last week. Strong could work in tandem this week with Stevenson. He could also be a zero if Stevenson shoulders a bellcow workload.

Kevin Harris: Harris pulled his best Damien Harris impression last week with eight carries for 26 rushing yards and a score (49% snaps). He didn’t draw a target, but he ran 14 routes compared to Strong’s eight. Kevin Harris is the lowest on the totem pole here. He only has fantasy viability if Damien Harris and Stevenson are out. In that scenario, he would reprise last week’s role with Strong also getting work.

Josh Jacobs: Jacobs is the RB2 in fantasy averaging 24.1 touches and 134.4 total yards. He is first in opportunity share, second in weighted opportunities and seventh in red zone touches. Jacobs is eighth in juke rate, first in evaded tackles and fourth in breakaway runs. Jacobs is s top-five runner every week. Since Week 10, New England is second in rushing success rate, fourth in EPA per rush, fifth in rushing yards per game, and second in explosive run rate allowed. Jacobs has rushed for at least 90 yards in every game since Week 11. His every down role and pass game usage will help pad any inefficiency from the tough matchup.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams: Adams has lit the entire league on fire this season. He has seven 100-yard receiving days and four weeks where he has surpassed 30 fantasy points. Adams is first in target share (33.4%), third in air yard share (41.6%), second in deep targets, and fourth in red zone targets. He’s a top-three wide receiver every week that will run about 68% of his routes against Jonathan Jones (58.5% catch rate, 81.9 passer rating) and Marcus Jones (35.7% catch rate, 28.3 passer rating).

Mack Hollins: Hollins is the WR46 in fantasy with a 17.9% target share and 12.7 aDOT (22nd). He’s served as the team’s lid lifter, ranking 21st among wide receivers in deep targets. Hollins will run about 85% of his routes against the Jones duo. His outlook this week could shift widely if Renfrow and Waller are active. Check back Friday.

Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow is expected to be a full go. He’s struggled this season with a 14.6% target share (63rd), one deep target, and two red zone targets in six games played. His best finish this year has been as WR41 in weekly fantasy scoring. New England is 13th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot receivers. Renfrow is a WR5/6.

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers missed the last game with a concussion. Meyers is expected to play. Meyers is the WR29 this season with a 22% target share and 30.3% air yard share. He’s seen 11 deep targets in ten games. Meyers is 14th in fantasy points per route run with four weeks as a WR3 or higher. He will run about 70% of his routes against Tyler Hall (60% catch rate, 64.6 passer rating) and Amik Robertson (61.5% catch rate, 114.9 passer rating) as a WR3/4.

DeVante Parker: Parker has been ruled out (concussion).

Tight Ends

Darren Waller: Waller will be back this week. He’s been disappointing this season with a 14.0% target share and two TE1 weeks in five games played. When Waller has been active, the high-value usage has been there as he has five deep targets and six red zone targets. New England is 20th in fantasy points per game, fifth in catch rate allowed, and 11th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends. Waller is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2.

Hunter Henry: Since Week 9, Henry has had an 11.5% target share averaging 43.2 receiving yards with a 63.7% route run rate. In that five-game stretch, he’s 15th in PFF receiving grade and ninth in yards per route run with three TE1 games. Henry could add to his top-12-week total against the Raiders. Las Vegas is 26th in DVOA, ranking 27th in catch rate and 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA