Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

• NO -4.5, O/U 43
• Falcons vs. Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Across their last six games, Atlanta is 27th in neutral pace with the second-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Since Week 8, the Saints are 31st in neutral pace, but they have been chucking the ball at the tenth-highest rate in neutral situations.

Quarterbacks

Desmond Ridder: Ridder gets the nod in Week 15, assuming the Falcons’ starting job. His preseason performance didn’t exactly inspire confidence. He was 31st in PFF passing grade, 13th in yards per attempt, 57th in adjusted completion rate, and he had the seventh-highest turnover-worthy play rate (minimum 20 dropbacks). Ridder is a low-end QB2 in a run-first offense staring down a strong Saints’ secondary. Since Week 10, New Orleans is eighth in success rate per dropback, 13th in passing yards per game, and third in explosive pass rate allowed.

Andy Dalton: Dalton has been playing good football this season. I know that Winston stans don’t want to hear that, but hey, sometimes the truth hurts. Dalton is third in PFF passing grade, ninth in yards per attempt, ninth in adjusted completion rate, and 15th in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). Dalton is the QB21 in fantasy points per game, but he has two top-ten fantasy weeks on his resume. Dalton is a QB2 with a decent ceiling this week. Since Week 10, the Falcons are 22nd in success rate per dropback and 26th in EPA per dropback despite facing the likes of P.J. Walker, Taylor Heinicke, and Kenny Pickett in that four-game stretch.

Running Backs

Cordarrelle Patterson: Since Week 11, Patterson has played between 46-58% of the snaps weekly, averaging 12.4 touches and 63.4 total yards. Atlanta looks committed to their running back by committee approach, which will limit Patterson’s weekly ceiling. His pass game has been fleeting, as he has only two games this season with more than two targets. Patterson has been explosive when on the field, ranking 13th in yards per touch, 18th in juke rate, and fifth in breakaway run rate. The Saints have not been a run defense to fear. Since Week 10, they are 17th in rushing success rate, 22nd in rushing yards per game, and 13th in explosive run rate allowed. Patterson is an RB3.

Tyler Allgeier: Over his last three games, Allgeier has averaged 9.7 rushing attempts and 53.7 rushing yards. Since Week 10, he has had one game with a finish higher than RB44 (RB30). Allgeier has been relatively efficient with his work, ranking 24th in yards per touch, 19th in juke rate, and 25th in evaded tackles. The problem is his pass game role is non-existent, and his volume is capped at 8-12 carries per week. With only two red zone carries over his last four games, Allgeier is a low-end flex/RB4.

Alvin Kamara: Kamara’s season has been puzzling. He’s the RB15 in fantasy averaging 17.6 touches and 89.4 total yards. He ranks third in target share (19.8%), ninth in routes run, second in route participation, and fifth in yards per route run. All of those numbers look like par for the course for a typical Kamara season, except when you arrive at his touchdown equity. Kamara has three touchdowns this season that were all scored in the same game, and he’s 33rd in red zone touches. The team’s allergy to utilizing arguably their best player near paydirt has been head-scratching, but by now, we have to expect that it’s not changing. Kamara’s pass game efficiency remains off the charts, but his abilities as a rusher have deteriorated. He’s 47th in juke rate, 32nd in evaded tackles, and has only four breakaway runs this season (39th). Since Week 10, the Falcons remain a plus matchup for running backs ranking 31st in rushing success rate, 30th in rushing yards per game, and 23rd in explosive run rate allowed. Kamara is a low-end RB1.

Wide Receivers

Drake London: With Kyle Pitts out, London has seen an outstanding 33.3% target share (eight targets per game), 25% end zone target share, and 36.1% air yard share. In his last two games, he has a 35% target per route run rate with 2.7 yards per route run. Feed him volume, Atlanta. Do it. Please. Per ESPN analytics, London is 40th in open rate, immediately ahead of Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins. London has 12 deep targets (30th) and 12 red zone targets (17th). London is a WR3 with double-digit target upside this week.

Chris Olave: Olave is the WR19 in fantasy. He’s been a volume vacuum all year, ranking 17th in target share (25.8%), tenth in target per route run rate (28.8%), and fifth in air yard share (40.3%). He is third in deep targets and 19th in red zone targets. Olave is a budding alpha wide receiver ranking 13th in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). A.J. Terrell has shadowed five times this season following receivers on 46-82% of their routes. Terrell has only once allowed more than 50 receiving yards in shadow coverage. It’s not definite he will shadow Olave. If Terrell doesn’t shadow, Olave will run about 61% of his routes against Terrell (56.9% catch rate, 115.0 passer rating) and Darren Hall (74.2% catch rate, 134.3 passer rating). Olave is a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.

Jarvis Landry: Landry is a WR5/6. Since Week 2, he has had one week inside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers. Landry hasn’t crested 40 receiving yards since Week 1. He has a 15.1% target share and six red zone targets (five over his last three games). He’ll run about 56% of his routes against Isaiah Oliver (76.9% catch rate, 78.0 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson: Johnson missed the game against Tampa Bay before the team’s Week 14 bye with an ankle injury. Johnson was limited in practice all week and has been listed as questionable. In Weeks 6-11, with Johnson healthy, he saw a 14.8% target share averaging 36.7 receiving yards per game with a 71.3% route run rate and 1.43 yards per route run. Johnson finished as a TE1 in four of his last six full games. He is 11th among tight ends in deep targets and red zone targets. Atlanta is 19th in DVOA against tight ends, ranking 22nd in catch rate and 29th in receiving yards allowed. Johnson is a TE1.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears

• PHI -9, O/U 48.5
• Eagles vs. Bears Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Since Week 8, the Bears have yet to reinvent their offensive wheel as they are 29th in neutral pace with the highest neutral rushing rate in the NFL.
• However, the Eagles have changed things over their last seven games. They are fifth in neutral pace while increasing their neutral passing rate (15th).

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts: Hurts is the king of the castle. The QB1 in fantasy. It’s good to be the king. Hurts is second in fantasy points per dropback, and the QB2 in expected fantasy points per game. He continues to excel as a passer, ranking fifth in PFF passing grade, third in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The passing prowess is on top of ranking first in rushing touchdowns, third in rushing yards per game, and first in red zone carries per game. Hurts is the QB1 overall this week facing a defense that he should shred. Since Week 10, Chicago has been 31st in success rate per dropback, 32nd in EPA per drop back, and 31st in yards per attempt.

BETTLE MATCHUP OF THE WEEK

Each week, we’ll pick a matchup of the week, presented by Bettle. For Week 15, Jalen Hurts is our Bettle Matchup of the Week.

Justin Fields: Fields has climbed to QB5 in fantasy points per game. Much of this is on the strength of his rushing ability. Fields is first in rushing yards, second in rushing touchdowns, and third in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks. In his first game back, he only ran six times but he finished with 71 rushing yards. With his explosive ability it doesn’t take many carries for him to pile up the yards even if the team continues to limit his work on the ground. Since Week 8, he’s also made strides as a passer ranking eighth in adjusted completion rate, 13th in yards per attempt, and fourth in big-time throw rate (minimum 100 dropbacks). The Eagles are no picnic for opposing quarterbacks. Since Week 10, they are eighth in success rate per dropback, eighth in EPA per dropback, and 13th in explosive pass rate allowed. Fields is still a top-flight QB1 despite the difficult matchup. His rushing yardage and touchdown.

Running Backs

Miles Sanders: Sanders has another smash matchup incoming. After last week’s stellar performance, he’s the RB12 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.1 touches and 88.7 total yards. Sanders is seventh in red zone touches, 18th in weighted opportunity, and fifth in total touchdowns. He’s been electric this year, ranking tenth in evaded tackles, eighth in breakaway runs, and 15th in yards per touch. The Bears have hemorrhaged points to running backs all year. Since Week 10, they are 25th in rushing success rate, 26th in rushing yards per game, 25th in EPA per rush, and 29th in explosive run rate allowed. Sanders is an RB1.

Kenneth Gainwell: Gainwell remains a stash only. After averaging 7.5 touches and 49.5 total yards in Weeks 12-13, he only played 18% of the snaps in Week 14 with one touch. His role is too volatile and, in many weeks, too minuscule to count on for your lineup.

David Montgomery: Over his last two games, Montgomery has played between 68-77% of the snaps while averaging 17.5 touches and 90 total yards. The Bears have worked in Darrynton Evans in that time in a similar fashion as they did Khalil Herbert. Montgomery is the RB27 in fantasy, but without Herbert, he’s seen a spike in his weekly production. Since Week 11, he has finished as the RB6, RB21, and RB12. Montgomery has also been excellent in the passing game, with a 12.1% target share (13th) and 13th ranking in yards per route run. Montgomery is a pile-moving chunk runner, ranking 53rd in breakaway runs but sixth in evaded tackles and ninth in juke rate. With Jordan Davis back in the lineup since Week 13, the Eagles are sixth in rushing success rate. With Davis active, the Eagles are 14th in rushing yards per game, 23rd in EPA per rush, and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Montgomery is a volume-based low-end RB2/high-end RB3.

Wide Receivers

A.J. Brown: Brown is the WR9 dominating with a 27.8% target share (11th), 28.5% target per route run rate (11th), and 37.7% air yard share (eighth). He is 18th in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets. He has three games with at least 119 receiving yards this season. Brown is second to only Tyler Lockett in open rate while also ranking sixth in YAC rating. Brown is a WR1 that will run about 71% of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (60.6% catch rate, 99.7 passer rating) and Jaylon Jones (75% catch rate, 99.3 passer rating).

DeVonta Smith: Smith is the WR26 in fantasy points per game with a 25.7% target share (19th) and 29.1% air yard share (27th). He is 24th in deep targets, with the only knock in his game coming with his red zone usage. He only has three red zone targets in his last four games. Smith is 33rd in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 that will run about 72% of his routes against Johnson and Jones.

Chase Claypool: Claypool has been ruled out (knee).

Tight Ends

Reed Blankenship (knee) is out for the Eagles.

Everyone else is on the 53-man roster is able to play. Dallas Goedert can be activated tomorrow; there's a spot on the 53 seemingly waiting for him.

The Eagles will elevate P Brett Kern. They'll likely elevate a safety, too.

— Zach Berman (@ZBerm) December 16, 2022

Dallas Goedert:  Goedert has been working his way from a shoulder injury. He could be activated this week from the IR. We’ll have to wait probably till Saturday to find out if Goedert will play, but it seems to be trending in that direction. Goedert is the TE3 in fantasy points per game with a 20.6% target share (fourth-best) and 23.4% target per route run rate (ninth-best). Despite only playing nine games, he is 11th in red zone targets. He’s been an elite tight end this season, ranking fifth in PFF receiving grade, third in yards per route run, and third in YAC per reception (minimum 20 targets). If active, Goedert is a TE1. Chicago isn’t an easy matchup as they have held the position to the tenth-lowest yards per reception and ninth-fewest receiving touchdowns (tied).

Cole Kmet: In his last four games played with Fields under center, Kmet has a 26.7% target share, 40% end zone target share, and 68.3% route run rate. In that sample, he has a 29% target per route run rate and 2.64 yards per route run while averaging 55.5 receiving yards. Kmet is a low-end TE1 with a rough matchup in Week 15. The Eagles are fifth in DVOA, holding tight ends to the sixth-lowest catch rate and seventh-lowest receiving yards per game.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA

Detroit Lions vs. New York Jets

• NYJ -0.5, O/U 44.5
• Lions vs. Jets Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• The Lions continue to speed along, ranking sixth in neutral pace while operating a run-balanced offense (17th in neutral passing rate).
• With Mike White under center, the Jets are 11th in neutral pace and seventh in neutral passing rate. This game’s play volume will surprise many who assume a slow contest with these two teams.

Quarterbacks

Jared Goff: Early season Goff has returned as his weapons have gotten healthier. Goff has now rattled off back-to-back QB4 finishes with at least 330 passing yards and multiple touchdowns. Goff now has three top-eight weeks on his 2022 resume. Goff is ninth in yards per attempt, eighth in passing yards, and tied for fifth in passing touchdowns. Goff has his work cut out for him the week. Since Week 10, the Jets have been fourth in success rate per dropback, third in passing yards per game, and fifth in EPA per dropback. Goff is a borderline QB1.

Zach Wilson: Mike White has been ruled out (ribs). Unfortunately, that means that Wilson will start this week, not Joe Flacco. Wilson has been laughably bad all year. Among 50 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, he’s 48th in PFF passing grade, 28th in yards per attempt, 47th in turnover-worthy play rate, and 44th in adjusted completion rate. The Lions remain a giving secondary to opposing passing attacks. Since Week 10, they are 26th in success rate per dropback, 21st in yards per attempt, 28th in passing yards per game, and 32nd in explosive pass rate allowed. Wilson is a QB2 that has finished lower than QB20 in four of his seven games played. His starting nod hurts all the skill players in this offense.

Running Backs

Week 14

Jamaal Williams: Williams is the RB18 in fantasy, averaging 15.7 rushing attempts and 62 rushing yards. Williams’ fantasy value is founded on red zone usage and touchdowns. He’s second in red zone touches and first in total touchdowns (14). Last week Williams was held out of the end zone, which broke a four-game touchdown streak. With only one target in his last six games, Williams’ value resides in the early downs only. He remains an inefficient grinder back who is 50th in juke rate, 36th in evaded tackles, and 53rd in yards created per touch. Since Week 10, the Jets are third in rushing success rate but also 17th in rushing yards per game and 25th in explosive run rate allowed. Williams is a touchdown-dependent RB3.

D’Andre Swift: After enjoying a more robust workload in Week 13, Swift disappointingly fell back to earth in Week 14. His snaps dropped to 36% as he handled nine touches with 39 total yards. Swift conceded early down and pass game work to Justin Jackson. This is the type of volume we should expect for Swift for the rest of the season, and anything above it should be a happy surprise. Swift played 31-34% of snaps in the previous three games averaging eight touches and 17.7 total yards. Despite his scaled-back responsibilities, he remains heavily involved in the red zone, so a touchdown is in his range of outcomes weekly. Swift faces a middle-of-the-road defense against running backs in the passing game. New York is 14th in yards per reception, 14th in receiving yards per game, and 21st in receptions allowed per game. Swift is a risky RB3.

Week 14

Zonovan Knight: With Carter back in the lineup, Knight played 47% of the snaps with 19 touches and 77 total yards (one score) to finish as the RB13 for the week. Knight only had a 30% route run rate, but he led the team in rushing attempts and red zone opportunities. Knight has been explosive since being inserted into the running back rotation. He’s 16th in yards after contact per attempt, 24th in breakaway rate, and first in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). The Lions’ run defense has been improving rapidly. Since Week 10, they are 14th in rushing success rate, 11th in explosive run rate, fifth in yards per carry, and first in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Knight is a volume-based low-end RB2.

Michael Carter: Last week Carter returned to play 50% of the snaps with eight touches and 20 total yards. He handled a 56% route run rate with a 14% target share and saw a target on 21% of his routes run. Carter looks to be the passing down compliment to Knight. Since Week 10, Detroit is 15th in yards per reception and fourth in receiving yards per game allowed to running backs. Carter’s prospects this week aren’t any rosier than Knight’s. Carter is an RB4 with a small bump in PPR formats.

Wide Receivers

Amon-Ra St. Brown: St. Brown is the WR8 in fantasy, vacuuming up a 28.5% target share (ninth-best) with a 33.5% target per route run rate (second-best). St. Brown is 12th in red zone targets, with seven over his last five games. St. Brown is fifth in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). He’s been a stud this year, embarrassing anyone that faded him in the offseason. St. Brown faces a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers. St. Brown is a volume-based WR1 that will run about 66% of his routes against Michael Carter (69.5% catch rate, 78.5 passer rating).

D.J. Chark: Chark has been on fire averaging 96 receiving yards with a 17.3% target share and 2.74 yards per route run over the last two games. Chark was the WR23 and WR9 in fantasy. His 16.8 aDOT is first among wide receivers, and he’s 30th in deep targets despite only playing seven games this season. Chark is a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 this week, facing the deadly duo of Sauce Gardner (44.1% catch rate, 48.8 passer rating) and D.J. Reed (55.1% catch rate, 73.8 passer rating) on 77% of his routes.

Jameson Williams: Williams secured one of his two targets last week for a 41-yard wide-open score. While that will catch fantasy gamers’ attention, Williams still only ran six routes as the team slowly works him in as Chark and Reynolds do the heavy lifting on the perimeter weekly. Reynolds could see his snaps eaten into more this week by Williams, which is why both players are unplayable this week.

Editor’s Note: With Mike White set to miss Week 15, the outlooks for the Jets’ wide receivers will be updated soon.

Garrett Wilson: Since Week 8, Wilson has stepped up as the alpha in this passing attack with a 23.5% target share, 27.3% end zone target share, and 32.4% air yard share. Over his last six games, he’s ninth in PFF receiving grade and 12th in yards per route run (minimum 15 targets). He’s eighth among wide receivers in red zone targets this season. Per ESPN analytics, he’s tenth in open rate, immediately ahead of CeeDee Lamb. Wilson will run about 69% of his routes against the trio of Jerry Jacobs (55.6% catch rate, 78.1 passer rating), Amani Oruwariye (78.7% catch rate, 135.0 passer rating), and Jeffrey Okudah (65.3% catch rate, 98.8 passer rating). Since Week 8, the Lions have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers. Wilson is a low-end WR2 with Wilson under center.

Corey Davis: Davis has been ruled out (concussion).

Elijah Moore: Last week, Moore led the team with a 23.3% target share and a 30.1% air yard share. Moore had a 94% route run rate with 1.28 yards per route run. The team has started to lean on their talented sophomore wide receiver more, with four red zone targets in the last two games. Moore will run about 63% of his routes against Mike Hughes (73.5% catch rate, 132.0 passer rating) in the slot. Since Week 8, the Lions have allowed the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers. Moore is a WR4 with the Wilson downgrade.

Tight Ends

Tyler Conklin: Conklin is a fantastic tight-end streamer this week. Conklin has a 15.8% target share (15th) and 69.9% route participation (18th). He’s 11th in YAC and 26th in yards per route run. He has three touchdowns on the season despite only four red zone targets (37th). Conklin is a borderline TE1/high-end TE2 against a Lions’ defense that is 29th in catch rate, 25th in receiving yards per game, and 28th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Carolina Panthers

• CAR -2.5, O/U 38.5
• Steelers vs. Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• Pittsburgh has flipped its early-season offensive design on its head. Since Week 12, they have been slow and run-loving, ranking 30th in neutral pace with the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate.
• Over their last two games, Carolina is 32nd in neutral pace with the league’s highest neutral rushing rate. This game will be slow and filled with empty calorie carries by both teams.

Quarterbacks

Mitch Trubisky: Kenny Pickett sustained his second concussion in the last eight weeks in Week 14. Pickett has been ruled out. Trubisky has been named the starter for this week. Trubisky is a QB2. He hasn’t finished higher than QB17 in any game this season. Trubisky is 27th in fantasy points per dropback, 23rd in yards per attempt, and 33rd in accuracy rating. Since Week 8, Carolina is 12th in passing yards per game, eighth in EPA per drop back, and 13th in explosive pass rate allowed. 

Sam Darnold: Since taking over the starting job, Darnold has been the QB16 and QB20 in fantasy. The Panthers are a run-first team, and Darnold is just here to manage games. He’s averaged 21.5 pass attempts and 142 passing yards (6.6 yards per attempt) over his last two starts. He’s a low-end QB2 again this week. Since Week 10, the Steelers are tenth in success rate per dropback, eighth in passing yards per game, and 14th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Running Backs

Najee Harris: Since Week 10, Harris has averaged 17.4 touches and 79.2 total yards as the RB16 in fantasy. He’s managed at least 18 touches in three of his last five games with four touchdowns. Over the last five weeks, Harris is 30th in yards after contact per attempt, ninth in missed tackles forced, and 23rd in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 15 carries). Harris is a volume-based RB2. Since Week 10, Carolina is 13th in rushing success rate, 11th in rushing yards per game, and 19th in explosive run rate allowed.

Week 14

D’Onta Foreman: Since Week 7, Foreman has averaged 19.3 rushing attempts and 85.7 rushing yards as the RB22 in fantasy. He has four 100-yard rushing days across those seven games. Despite Hubbard and Blackshear working in last week, Foreman still led the team in rushing attempts, routes, and red zone opportunities while playing 47% of the snaps. Foreman is 30th in yards after contact per attempt, 31st in breakaway rate, and 39th in PFF’s elusive rating (minimum 25 carries). He’s a game script-dependent RB3 with RB2 upside. Since Week 10, the Steelers are 18th in rushing success rate, 15th in rushing yards per game, and 14th in explosive run rate allowed.

Chuba Hubbard: Over his last two games, Hubbard averaged 37% of snaps with 17 touches and total 82 yards. Hubbard hasn’t been very efficient with his volume, ranking 53rd in yards after contact per attempt and 66th in breakaway rate with only 12 missed tackles forced (53rd). Hubbard is an RB4/middling flex play.

Wide Receivers

Diontae Johnson: Since Week 9, Johnson has had a 24.5% target share, 36.4% end zone target share, and 30.8% air yard share while doing relatively little with it. Johnson averaged 55 receiving yards with 1.58 yards per route run and zero touchdowns. Johnson is the WR43 this season in fantasy. Since Week 5, he has only two games as a WR3 or better. Johnson has zero touchdowns this season despite ranking eighth in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets. He’s in the running as the most inefficient wide receiver in fantasy this year. Johnson is a WR4 that will run about 87% of his routes against Jaycee Horn (52.5% catch rate, 35.8 passer rating) and C.J. Henderson (71.2% catch rate, 99.0 passer rating).

George Pickens: Over his last five games, Pickens has a 14.6% target share, 9.1% end zone target share, and 24.6% air yard share. He averaged 50.4 receiving yards with 1.55 yards per route run. He’s finished as a WR3 or higher in three weeks. While Johnson has been a consistent and underwhelming floor play all year, Pickens has flashed some ceiling with four games this year inside the top 24 fantasy wideouts. He’s fourth in aDOT (15.2) and seventh in deep targets. Pickens is a low-end WR3/high-end WR4 that will run about 85% of his routes against Horn and Henderson.

D.J. Moore: With Darnold under center Moore has a 25% target share with a 40% end zone target share and 2.34 yards per route run which are amazing numbers. Those numbers need context though because with the Panthers’ limited passing volume that’ only amounted to 4.5 targets and 51.5 receiving yards per game. Carolina’s yearning to take the air out of the ball and run incessantly will cap Moore’s ceiling in most weeks unless he pops a big play. The wide range of Moore’s weekly finishes is insane and tied to his quarterback play and the passing volume weekly. Over his last seven games, Moore has three WR1 weeks while finishing outside the top 50 fantasy wide receivers in the other four games. Moore is a WR4 that will run about 71% of his routes against Cameron Sutton (51.8% catch rate, 73.4 passer rating) and Levi Wallace (56.5% catch rate, 78.2 passer rating).

Terrace Marshall: The Panthers’ declining passing rate has crushed Marshall’s fantasy viability. He’s only seen more than five targets and surpassed 50 receiving yards once over the last four games. Marshall can be cut loose to the waiver wire.

Tight Ends

Pat Freiermuth: Since Week 9, Freiermuth has had a 22.5% target share, 27.3% endzone target share, and a 70.3% route run rate with 2.02 yards per route run. Freiermuth is the TE7 in fantasy points per game, ranking third in deep targets and ninth in red zone targets among tight ends. He’s top-five in air yards, receptions, and receiving yards. Freiermuth remains a TE1. Carolina has been a difficult matchup for tight ends, ranking 11th in DVOA, 12th in yards per reception, and ninth in fantasy points per game.

IND vs. MIN | BAL vs. CLE | MIA vs. BUF | ATL vs. NO | PHI vs. CHI | DET vs. NYJ | PIT vs. CAR | DAL vs. JAC | KC vs. HOU | ARI vs. DEN | NE vs. LV | TEN vs. LAC | CIN vs. TB | NYG vs. WAS | LAR vs. GB | SF vs. SEA