New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals

• NE -1.5, O/U 45
• Patriots vs. Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Pace and playcalling notes

• In their last five games, the Patriots are 19th in neutral pace while also surprisingly ranking seventh in neutral passing rate.
• The Cardinals are third in neutral pace while passing at the eighth-highest rate when the score is within eight points.

Quarterbacks

Mac Jones: Jones went back to being pitiful last week with 5.4 yards per attempt, a 58.3 PFF passing grade (25th), and a 4.9% turnover-worthy play rate (eighth-worst). Jones proved he can still be a viable streaming QB2 in Week 12 with his QB7 performance against Minnesota. That’s exactly what he is this week. Since Week 10, Arizona is 25th in success rate per dropback, 18th in passing yards per game, 13th in EPA per drop back, and 26th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.

Kyler Murray: Since Hopkins returned to the huddle, Murray has been tenth in adjusted completion rate, 28th in yards per attempt, and 26th in PFF passing grade (minimum 50 dropbacks). In those four games, Murray has been the QB10, QB3, QB8, and QB4 in fantasy scoring, with at least 30 rushing yards weekly. Against better competition, the Patriots’ secondary has been exposed. Since Week 10, they have been 23rd in success rate per dropback and 23rd in EPA per dropback. Murray is a low-end QB1.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson: Since Week 7, Stevenson has played at least 63% of the snaps weekly, averaging 18.9 touches and 97.2 total yards. In those six games, Stevenson has a 24.9% target share while averaging 49.5 receiving yards per game with 2.08 yards per route run. Mondre is unstoppable and matchup-proof. The Patriots are deploying him like their own personal version of Alvin Kamara. Stevenson is the RB8 in fantasy, ranking fifth in weighted opportunities, 13th in opportunity share, and 17th in red zone touches. He is top ten in juke rate, evaded tackles, yards per route run, and yards created per touch. Since Week 10, Arizona has been 22nd in rushing success rate, 30th in EPA per rush, and tenth in explosive run rate allowed. The Cardinals are also 30th in DVOA against receiving backs giving up the ninth-most receptions and receiving yards. Stevenson is an RB1.

Damien Harris: Harris has been listed as doubtful (thigh).

James Conner: Conner has returned to his bell-cow workload. Since Week 10, he has played at least 77% of the snaps in each game, with two outings of 96% or more. Since then, in fantasy, Conner has averaged 22.7 touches and 93.3 total yards as the RB3, RB16, and RB4. Conner is 24th in juke rate, 19th in target share, 26th in yards created per touch, and 26th in evaded tackles. New England is a tough test. Since Week 10, they are second in rushing success rate, fourth in rushing yards per game, and first in explosive run rate allowed. Conner is a volume-based low-end RB1/high-end RB2.

Wide Receivers

Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has been ruled out. 

DeVante Parker: Parker managed an 11.8% target share last week with 22% of the team’s air yards and an 81.6% route run rate. Every other wide receiver on the New England roster outside of Meyers saw below a 55% route run rate. Parker has three games this season where he’s been a WR3 or higher, including his Week 3 explosion as the WR11. With his 15.6 aDOT (third) and 13 deep targets (22nd), he has been the primary deep target for New England. This isn’t exactly the role we should covet against this secondary. Arizona is second in deep ball completion rate and has allowed the lowest deep ball passing yards in the NFL. Parker is a WR5/6.

DeAndre Hopkins: Since his return, Hopkins has been on a mission as the WR6 in fantasy. He has a 30.6% target share (fourth-best), 31.1% target per route run rate (seventh-best), and 43.5% air yard share (second). He has at least 87 receiving yards in each game except for one (Week 9). Hopkins is 17th in PFF receiving grade and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). Hopkins will run about 74% of his routes against Marcus Jones (25% catch rate, 50.5 passer rating), Jonathan Jones (58% catch rate, 82.7 passer rating), and Jack Jones (52.6% catch rate, 66.3 passer rating) as a WR1.

Marquise Brown: In his first game back, Brown swallowed up a 29.6% target share, 32.2% air yard share, and 93% route run rate with 1.48 yards per route run. Brown is 23rd in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets). His early season numbers are nice, but they are useless in helping to project how this tandem’s usage will shake out. Brown is a WR2 that will run about 70% of his routes against the Jones family.

Rondale Moore: Moore has been ruled out. 

Greg Dortch: Dortch has practiced in full (thumb) all week. He has been the plug-and-play Moore replacement in the slot all season. In the four games, he has played at least 70% of the snaps, he has had an 18% target share averaging 7.2 receptions and 75.2 receiving yards. He finished as the WR29, WR22, WR19, and WR10 in those weeks. Dortch is a WR3/4 that will run about 86% of his routes against Miles Bryant (69.2% catch rate, 96.3 passer rating).

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry: Since Week 12, Henry has had a 14.5% target share, 33.3% end zone target share, and 72.2% route run rate. He has red zone targets in each of his last two games. Henry is a TE1 this week against Arizona. The Cardinals are swiss cheese versus the tight end position. They have allowed the highest catch rate, most receiving yards, and most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Trey McBride: Since assuming the starting tight-end role, McBride has been invisible. He has a 7.7% target share averaging 7.3 receiving yards per game with 0.28 yards per route run. McBride isn’t startable despite the high number of snaps and routes he sees weekly. This passing attack is condensed around the wide receivers, with Conner working as the third or fourth option after them.

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